Category: Credit Crunch
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Credit Crunch Far From Being Over, Further Economic Uncertainty? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Regent_Markets
To say that Wall Street has been paying close attention to the actions of the US Federal Reserve recently is an understatement to say the least. Last week was no different as the Dow Jones & Co reacted frantically to Fed attempts to stoke greater movement in moribund credit markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Fed $40 Billion Auction Will be Liquidity Acid Test for Nervous Markets / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: John_Mauldin
The Fed is getting ready to auction of $40 billion in repos this week. The stock market acted is if this was a special gift stuffed into its Christmas stocking last week, rebounding after a serious drop in the market the day before. This week in Outside the Box, Dr. John Hussman tells us why the $40 billion is more smoke and mirrors than actual money. It seems they had $39 billion coming due this week anyway. And in a $12.7 trillion dollar banking system it may not make much difference.
This is not a long article, but it is important. You need to understand how the Fed works and when its actions make a difference. Hussman is very good at writing clear, easy-to-understand material on complex subjects.
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Sunday, December 16, 2007
Worsening Credit Crunch Crisis to Send Gold Soaring and US Dollar Plunging / Commodities / Credit Crunch
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Why are the banks hurting so much?
In the U.K. banks have asked top U.K. corporate clients not to draw on lending facilities to which they are entitled in order to preserve their balance sheets as they approach the financial year-end. The banks are urging some of their biggest clients not to draw on standby credit facilities as the sub-prime crisis and squeeze on interbank lending have affected banks' ability to fund themselves. The problems started with the closure of the commercial paper market as a means of cheap funding for companies in the summer. Banks have to provide standby financing of up to 100% to backstop commercial paper programs.
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Friday, December 14, 2007
Doomed to Fail - Central Banks Auctioning of Low Interest Rate Loans to holders of US Mortgaged-Backed Securities / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: Peter_Schiff
This week's announcement by the Fed that it will create a new mechanism to provide funding for credit challenged banks has been lauded by Wall Street as an innovative approach to solving the credit crisis. In truth, it is really just the same response the Fed has had for all problems great and small: crank up the printing presses, shower money on the problem, and hope that financial pain can be obscured by the balm of inflation. Both the Fed and Washington politicians are completely clueless regarding the ill effects of the plan, and are simply acting in desperation to keep a ticking time bomb from exploding before the next election.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Credit Bubble Bursting to Lead to Across the Board Asset Price Deflation / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Christopher_Laird
Riding upon the greatest credit bubble in history, greater than anything ever –(my interpretation of Doug Noland) one has to wonder what the future holds, if that bubble is breaking. That bubble includes the greatest housing bubble in history, the greatest world stock and bond bubble.
Just for the US housing bubble, it is estimated that, in a mere 5 years since 2002, $5 trillion was both pulled out of US housing and also the housing stock rose that much in value. $10 trillion total.
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Monday, December 10, 2007
Credit Crunch Contagion Spreads - Stock Markets Could Crash 50% During 2008 / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Captain_Hook
Make no mistake about it, the credit crunch is still spreading and contagious , and will remain that way until all debt that needs to be purged from the system has been expunged. Unfortunately for all concerned, with conditions in key factors displaying signs of Super-Cycle Degree tops, such as in demographic trends for example, this process could take longer than the current batch of bankers would prefer, and in fact likely scuttle the present day credit-based monetary system as a result. This is why one should not be surprised to see blank check policy and / or monetization rates continue accelerating moving forward, along with falling interest rates in bringing real yields down in an effort to support a faltering Western banking model. And because this is a global affair expect to see competitive devaluations begin to occur more frequently soon as well, which in total will continue to benefit precious metals in both relative and nominal measure as an increasingly stressed populations search for safe means to save wealth once again. In this sense, an entire era of speculation in paper assets is quickly turning the corner at present. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 09, 2007
Fed Panic! - Paulson's Subprime Mortgage Bailout is to Help the Banks not the People! / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Mike_Whitney
A nation's economy is a reflection pool. The face that looks back from the water; is the face of the culture and the prevailing ethos. It's no different with America. The stewards of the US economic system—Paulson and Bernanke—are inextricably linked to a political/military establishment which has been thoroughly marinated in a culture of violence and corruption. Paulson's “Marshall Plan” for subprime homeowners is just the gloved hand of the despot. The other hand is still busy gouging out eyes at Guantanamo, or clubbing foreign nationals at CIA black sites, or dropping incendiary bombs on schoolchildren in Falluja. It's all the same. The culture of war and demagoguery has its roots in the economic system. Its financial leaders are just as culpable as any low-ranking GI at Abu Ghraib. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 07, 2007
Impending Global Financial Crisis As Credit Markets Grind to a Halt / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: Mike_Whitney
The wreckage in the housing market just keeps piling up. Sales of existing homes in October dipped 23.5% from last year. Prices on new homes dropped 13% year over year. Third quarter foreclosures skyrocketed to 635,000, a 94% increase over last October and an all-time high on the Misery-Meter. The real estate market is in free-fall and the real trouble hasn't even begun yet.
California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida are mired in a full-blown housing depression. Inventory is off-the-chart. Presently, there's a 10.8 month backlog and the numbers are steadily rising. If foreclosures continue at the current pace, by the end of 2008, there'll be a 14 month inventory. That means that every builder in the country could take off his tool-belt right now and stop working FOR MORE THAN A YEAR before the market would clear. Contractors would be filling out job-applications at Red Lobster or looking for an empty street-corner with a tin cup.
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Thursday, December 06, 2007
Credit 'Crunch' or Credit Collapse? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: Alex_Wallenwein
How can you protect yourself during the worsening credit crunch?
To figure that out, we first need to understand what this 'credit crunch' really is, from the most fundamental perspective possible. For, it's root cause is not the sub-prime mortgage default crisis as financial pundits like to claim. It goes far, far deeper than that.
We all know by now that the entire world financial structure is dependent on one thing, and one thing only. That one thing is the very brick from which the splendid looking but dangerously tilting edifice is constructed:
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
FSA Warning to Mortgage Lenders To Protect Themselves Against Worsening Credit Crisis / Housing-Market / Credit Crunch
By: Sarah_Jones
The Financial Services Authority (FSA) today urged lenders to protect themselves against a possible worsening of liquidity and credit risks.
Clive Briault, FSA Retail Managing Director, told the Council of Mortgage Lenders Annual Conference: "There is a very real prospect that conditions will worsen further into next year, in terms of both liquidity and credit risks. Firms should therefore be assessing their funding and liquidity positions; undertaking robust stress testing to reflect current and prospective market conditions; reviewing and assessing their medium and longer term strategies and the options open to them; and considering contingency plans against the worst outcomes.
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Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Credit Crunch Withdrawal of Capital as General Motors and Freddie Mac Stare Into the Abyss / Companies / Credit Crunch
By: John_Mauldin
This week we turn to Michael Lewitt of HCM Capital for a very insightful letter on the current credit crisis. As I wrote on Friday, it is important for anyone with any involvement in the financial world to pay attention to what is going on in the credit markets. I think it is going to have far more impact than most observers apparently believe.
Michael E. Lewitt is the Managing Member and President of HCM (Hegemony Capital Management). You can read his letter at www.hegcap.com .
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Saturday, December 01, 2007
Dow Theory Sell Signal and The Run on the Florida State Bank - Fingers of Instability, Part 13 / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Ty_Andros
In This Issue – 3 Fingers of Instability
- Breaking the Buck!
- Look at the Actions, Not the Words!
- Showdown at the O.K. Corral!
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
The Next Subprime Dominos to Fall: Junk Bonds and Hedge Fund Risk Insurers / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: John_Mauldin
The subprime problem, we were told, would not spread to other markets. It would be "contained." And it has, according to Jim Grant. He quipped last week that it has been contained on planet Earth. The risks coming from rising defaults in the US (now above 600,000 and rising from just 200,000 a few years ago) are clearly spreading to markets far beyond the subprime world.
This week's Outside the Box talks about the next two dominoes that could fall: junk bonds and counterparty risk in the various credit default swap markets. Ted Seides is the Director of Investments at Protégé Partners, LLC, a hybrid fund of funds that invests in and seeds small, specialized hedge funds. He writes this week's piece in Peter Bernstein's Economic and Portfolio Strategy, one of the most respected of market analysis letters. You can learn more about the letter at www.peterlbernsteininc.com.
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Monday, November 26, 2007
Subprime Credit Crunch Continues to Go Global - Hitting French Bank Natixis / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The credit crunch continues to ripple out across the global financial sector with banks outside of the US just as badly hit as those within the US. Today's turn is the French Bank Natixis (Frances fourth largest bank) which declared that it has been hit hard by its exposure to the US subprime mortgage market. Making bad debt provisions of $600 million against its CDO portfolio in its third quarter results.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 25, 2007
City Professionals Content To Wait For Credit Crunch Redundancy Pay-offs / Companies / Credit Crunch
By: Submissions
As the fall-out from the sub-prime crisis continues to hit, the latest poll from eFinancialCareers.com, the global financial services careers website, reveals that many City professionals would be quite happy to lose their jobs and collect a lucrative payoff.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Worsening Credit Crisis Leading to Meltdown of Financial System and Severe US Recession / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Mike_Whitney
Take a Look at Professor Roubini's Crystal Ball - Reality has finally caught up to the stock market. The American consumer is underwater, the banks are buried in dept, and the housing market is in terminal distress. The Dow is now below its 200-Day Moving Average -- the first big "sell" signal. Anything below 12,500 could trigger program-trading and crash the market. The increased volatility suggests that we are watching a "real time" meltdown.
International Business editor for the UK Telegraph, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, summed up yesterday's action in the Asian markets:
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Monday, November 19, 2007
Three Steps To Protect Your Funds Now From the Debt and Credit Crisis / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Paul_Lamont
In A Short History of Financial Euphoria , John Kenneth Galbraith observes: “All crises have involved debt that, in one fashion or another, has become dangerously out of scale in relation to the underlying means of payment.” We have now reached this ‘ Minsky Moment .' According to Morgan Stanley, the risk is now greater than 50% that the financial system “will come to a grinding halt.”Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Understanding the US Credit Crunch of 2007 / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: John_Mauldin
This week in Outside the Box I strive to address an issue that I have been meditating on for quite some time. Precisely, how have we arrived at the current credit crisis that now threatens the domestic and global economy. I believe one of the underlying reasons is what is termed the "Minsky Moment," the topic of this weeks Outside the Box. If we understand how we have arrived at this crisis, we may get some clues as to how it will unfold. I am going to take up other thoughts on this topic next Friday. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 12, 2007
Next Phase of the Financial Markets Credit Crunch Crisis: The Great Ratings Debacle / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss and Mike Larson write: Evidence of an imminent U.S. recession is now piling up so high, even Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had to admit to a slowdown in his testimony to Congress last week …
The housing crisis is gutting the home equity of millions of households, abruptly ending their ability to use it as a personal ATM machine.
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Sunday, November 11, 2007
Loss of Confidence in the US Markets As Credit Crunch Spreads from the Subprime to the Prime / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Mike_Whitney
America is finished, washed up, kaput. Foreign investors and central banks around the world have lost confidence in US markets and are headed for the exits. The dollar is sinking, the country is insolvent, and its leaders are barking mad. That's bad for business. Investors are voting with their feet. They've had enough. Capital is flowing to China and the Far East in a torrent. It's "sayonara" Manhattan and “Hello” Tiananmen Square. Want some advice? Learn Mandarin.
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