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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stagflation

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

When Overvalued and Dangerous Markets Meet Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Michael_Pento

To put into perspective how overvalued and dangerous the US market has become; I often cite the figure of total market cap to GDP—currently 145% of the economy. How high is 145% of GDP? It is a full 30% higher than it was before the start of the Great Recession. The twin sister to this metric is the Household Net Worth to GDP Ratio. Household net worth as a percent of GDP is calculated by dividing the current bubbles in home prices and equities by the underlying economy, which has been artificially inflated by interest rates that have been pushed into the sub-basement of history. This metric is now an incredible 535% of GDP, which is a record high and 19% higher than the NASDAQ bubble of 2000. To put that figure in perspective, the good folks at Daily Reckoning have calculated that the historical average is 384%.

These valuation measurements are much more accurate than Wall Street’s favorite PE ratio valuation barometer because they cannot be easily manipulated by corporate share buybacks that have been facilitated by record-low borrowing costs. And, as hinted at already, the GDP denominator of today is much more tenuous because it has become more than ever predicated on the record amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus from the government.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 13, 2017

UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall / Economics / Stagflation

By: GoldCore

– UK inflation hits 3.1%, highest in nearly six years
– UK earnings flat – households are still suffering falling real wages
– Stagflation risk as food and drink prices jumped 4.1% in 12 months
– UK house prices fall two-months in a row, down 0.5% in October
– Real stagflation risk now, inflation high and growth slowing
– Savings continue to be eaten by inflation 

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Economics

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

“Secular Stagnation” Is Nonsense… Here’s the Real Reason Behind the US Downturn / Economics / Stagflation

By: John_Mauldin

My good friend Charles Gave recently wrote an instructive article titled “Tale of Two Countries.”

In the UK and France, structural growth rates have diverged since 1981. The rate has fallen by two-thirds in France, while in the UK it has risen.

Why?

Well, to begin with, in the UK, Margaret Thatcher was elected prime minister in 1979. She reduced the role of the bureaucracy in managing economic activity and dialed back government spending as a percentage of GDP.

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Economics

Monday, March 13, 2017

Is Stagflation Stalking? The Answer Is Critical To Your Financial Health! / Economics / Stagflation

By: Gordon_T_Long

It is important to anticipate whether Stagflation is stalking because the yield curve will start pricing it in which will place equity yields, earnings and PE growth multiples at risk.

We believe there are clear signs of stagflation already occurring and according to the recent Global Fund Manger Survey, many believe if we don't already have elevated Inflation and an emerging period of stagflation, we can soon expect it!

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Economics

Tuesday, August 09, 2016

Greenspan Gets One Right: Here Comes Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Michael_Pento

In a recent interview, former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan (the "Maestro") warned that the economy was experiencing, "the early signs of stagflation." This is a very rare occasion where Mr. Greenspan and I are actually in agreement. I also warned of this in my “Time to Invest for Stagflation” commentary published several months ago. 

In fact, the U.S. economy—and indeed the entire developed world—is in the beginning stages of an unprecedented breakout of stagflation. The number one reason for this can be summed up in a single word…debt. Debt not only steers an economy towards low growth but it also mires the nation with inflation.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Will the Fed be Blind Sided by Stagflation? / Economics / Stagflation

By: Michael_Pento

Most Central Bank watchers know that our Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of stable prices in the context of maximum employment. But its use of the words "stable and maximum" is somewhat misleading. For instance, one would assume that "stable" inflation would lead the Fed to pursue no change in prices and "maximum" employment would be a rate targeted at 0 percent unemployment; but this is not the case.

For some antithetical economic reason central bankers have unanimously redefined stable prices as adopting a 2 percent inflation target. The Fed has also morphed the term maximum employment rate to mean a 5-6 percent unemployment rate, clinging to the misguided belief that full employment is the progenitor of inflation, despite no supporting economic or historical evidence.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 11, 2016

Time to Invest for Stagflation / Stock-Markets / Stagflation

By: Michael_Pento

Whether you call it a 1970's style stagflation or, as we call it, a recessflation, investors need to prepare their portfolios to profit from a protracted period of rising prices in the context of zero growth. Here are some facts: Growth in the U.S. has averaged just 2% since 2010. However, Q4 2015 GDP growth grew at a 1.4% annualized rate and the Atlanta Fed model has Q1 GDP growth slowing to just 0.1%. The simple truth is that the rate of growth is slowing towards 0%, just as asset prices continue to rise to record levels due to vast intervention from central banks.

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Economics

Monday, June 30, 2014

Japan Says Konnichiwa to Economic Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Michael_Pento

More than twenty years after its infamous real estate and equity bubble burst, Japan has been plagued by economic malaise, an ailment most main stream economists have attributed to something they call a deflationary death spiral.  As one lost decade turned into two, and now well into number three, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has vowed to remedy this deflationary flu with an enormous dose of inflation. 

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Economics

Friday, May 02, 2014

Stagflation and the Credit Cycle / Economics / Stagflation

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Stagflation: When the general level of prices rises due to the purchasing power of currency-money falling, instead of price inflation due to a general increase in demand.

The credit cycle that normally drives advanced economies through boom and bust is turning out to be different this time round. The boom between the Lehman bust and the one yet to come never got going, because of very high levels of existing debt. This condition will almost certainly lead to stagflation.

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Economics

Sunday, April 06, 2014

Abenomics Stagflation - It's in Shinzo Abe's (Political) Genes / Economics / Stagflation

By: Richard_Mills

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" goal was to end a long miserable decade and a half of deflation by kick starting the economy. This was going to happen because of massive yen creation. The fiat balloon would induce consumers to spend and corporations to reinvest profits, convinced by a rising stock market and surging exports that all is well.

The Bank of Japan pumped liquidity into the economy at a pace even faster than the U.S. Federal Reserve - $60 billion a month versus $85 billion (the U.S. economy is three times larger than Japan's).

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 24, 2014

What Stagflation Means for Investors / Stock-Markets / Stagflation

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: The Bureau of Labor Statistics just reported that inflation in the U.S. economy increased by 0.3% in the month of December and that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the entire year of 2013 increased by only 1.5%. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 16, 2014.)

Is inflation in the U.S. economy really this low?

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Economics

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Republican Sellout Invites Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: John_Browne

While it may not be a surprise that the Republicans are preparing to yield on their vow to oppose tax hikes, it should raise investor concerns the world over that an upcoming budget agreement will likely involve a Congressional surrender of its authority to set the federal debt ceiling. In exchange for this, it appears that the Republicans have simply done nothing to halt, or even curb, the dangerous federal spending trajectories or the current drift towards greater state control of the economy. President Obama has politically outmaneuvered the Republicans, even going as far as evoking the Newtown massacre as a reason for quickly concluding a deal. As a result, it is likely that the GOP will bear the blame for any breakdown in fiscal cliff negotiations. They could wear such an outcome as a badge of honor, but nothing indicates that they have the political courage to do so.

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Economics

Friday, August 19, 2011

Threat of Economic Stagflation Looms as Prices Rise Despite Bad Economy / Economics / Stagflation

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Zeiler writes: Few are willing to acknowledge the threat of stagflation, but reports showing inflation rising more quickly than expected - even as growth is slowing - indicate that this scourge of the 1970s may be stalking the U.S. economy.

Every economic report nudges the United States closer to the definition of stagflation - a condition marked by slow economic growth, high unemployment, and soaring prices.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 18, 2011

How to Save Your Wealth From Stagflation / Stock-Markets / Stagflation

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSean Hyman writes: The year was 1973.

I was just a toddler, so I couldn't fully appreciate the next-generation Camaro that had just come out or the release of the new Pontiac Firebird Formula.

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Economics

Friday, June 03, 2011

Fed Economic Stimulus Leads to Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: John_Browne

Despite the full onslaught of Keynesian economic policies, including the injection of unheard of sums of printed money into the financial system, state sanctioned accounting tricks, negative real interest rates, massive deficit spending, and debasement of the U.S. dollar, the American economy is slipping back fast towards recession. This week's release of dismal employment figures, in which the entire economy could only muster 54,000 new jobs, confirms that fact.

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Economics

Friday, April 29, 2011

Here Comes Stagflation! / Economics / Stagflation

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt’s official. The U.S. economic recovery is stumbling again, as indicated by Thursday’s report that GDP growth plunged to only 1.8% in the 1st quarter (from 3.1% growth in the previous quarter). And spiking oil, food, and other commodity prices have inflation on the rise.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

From Quantitative Easing To Stagflation? / Economics / Stagflation

By: Dian_L_Chu

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe United States economy grew at a sluggish annual rate of 2 percent in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported last Friday. On the bright side, the economy is growing faster than the 1.7 percent growth in the second quarter and has registered the fifth straight quarter of expansion.

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Economics

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Japan a Deflation Death? - Nope Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Phill_Tomlinson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGordon Brown this week announced what can only be described as a car boot sale of UK PLC's bric-a-brac goods, an attempt to sooth markets regarding the budget deficit. Many of the items have been for sale before, but I'm sure the government in their current desperation will be willing to accept lower offers this time around. I agree with privatisation in getting the state out of our lives, but a student loan book and a crossing in Kent are hardly big ticket items, never mind the fact that they are assets that generate money.

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Economics

Friday, August 28, 2009

Transition From Financial Crisis to Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Christopher_Laird

Now that we are just about 2 years into the world financial/credit crisis, it’s time to ask what is next in one or two years.  One is to ask will stagflation emerge in 2010 and after, which is highly gold bullish long term.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 04, 2009

Bernanke Has Put the U.S. Economy on the Path to Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: As the U.S. and global economies stabilize, economists wonder how U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will manage to reverse all the monetary stimulus that has been infused into the economy over the past year and prevent inflation.

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