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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Commodities Trading

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Commodities

Sunday, January 09, 2022

The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Gary_Tanashian

A stroll through recent and not so recent inflationary history

[edit] Some wording and a couple typos cleaned up from original post, no changes to themes…

A Cynical Fed is a Dangerous Fed

On ‘Fed minutes Wednesday’ the media amplified the noise, the machines are doing what the machines do and running with it, and it’s all eyes on the great and powerful Fed (of Oz).

The Fed created the cyclical inflation (in NFTRH we detailed and managed the process successfully in real time) and thus the Fed created the cycle. In 2021 the Fed was exposed to the public as the agent of inflation it actually is, and when the inflation threatened to get out of hand they went into damage control mode. Now the Fed is trying to cool the inflation, which means cooling the cycle itself. You can’t have your inflated cake and eat it too. Not when the racket is exposed to the public.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 13, 2021

Where’s The Fed? Watch Precious Metals For Signs Of Inflation Panic / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We recently completed some interesting research related to one of our newest Custom Indexes – the Commodities to Smart Cash Index (C2SC Heat Index) – weighted by the US Dollar and VIX.  We’ve been reviewing this new index for months watching it to see how it reacts to various trends in Lumber, Gold, Treasury Yields, the Smart Cash Index, and other weighted values.  Recently, we added the Fed Funds Rate to this chart and suddenly things took on a different perspective.

We had drawn horizontal lines on the Commodities to Smart Cash index highlighting historical high, low, and confluence price levels.  Historically, when we see a chart that channels in a sideways range, one can often identify high and low price thresholds while also trying to find a confluence level (where a continued rise or decline in price is likely to continue). We can see how the US Fed reacted to rising inflationary concerns almost immediately as the C2SC Index rose near or above 6.5 (the RED Confluence level) throughout the past 25 years.  Each time, in 1994, 1999, and 2005, when a period of increasing inflationary trends, the Fed was quick to act to contain inflation.  The only time the Fed acted differently was in 2013~2015 and in 2020~now.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Have Commodities Peaked? We Doubt It / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

While everyone was paying attention to the FOMC, Gold & Silver, and the Treasury Yields, it appears the recent commodity rally trend took a big hit on Thursday, March 18, 2021.  Our guess is that the FOMC statement did nothing to support the continued commodity price rally as the US Fed continued with near-zero interest rates and economic support through 2023.  The rally in commodities was likely based on expectations of a much stronger economic recovery as the COVID vaccines take the pressure off economic shutdowns and further restrictive economic conditions, but that may not be the case.

Commodities Rollover May Be Misleading Traders

The rollover in commodities suggests the markets are reacting to renewed expectations, post-FOMC.  They may continue to consolidate near support (near $16.30) before attempting to move higher as traders digest the Fed comments and fall back into economic recovery expectations.  Any move below $16.00 as seen on the chart below may likely prompt a consolidation phase within historical support channels (see the Weekly DBC chart below).

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Commodities Comeback / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth, editor of Gold Resource Investor, examines the commodity supercycle and the role recency bias plays in investment decisions. Recency bias is a funny thing. It's human nature to expect the near future to look like the recent past.

But we all know that's not how things always play out.

And that can be costly, even dangerous, for investors.

Take long term bonds, for example. Ten-year Treasury yields have more than tripled, from 0.54% to 1.66% since last July. Does that mean the 40-year bond bull market is dead?

Tough to say, or course. We'll only know that for sure with hindsight. You know… recency bias.

If nothing else, the bond market is telling us price inflation is becoming a thing again, notwithstanding what the Fed might be telegraphing.

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Commodities

Monday, March 15, 2021

Cotton, soybeans, crude oil: Simplicity wins / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

Dear Reader,

You come to our website looking for market answers.

Well, with the help of our friends at Elliott Wave International, we are happy to offer you a new, free opportunity to see what's likely next for cotton, soybeans and crude oil -- for the entire 2021.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 18, 2021

The Commodity Cycle / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Donald_W_Dony

Commodity prices have remained in a prolonged downward trend since the price peak in mid-2008. Driven lower by a firming U.S. dollar (DXY) beginning in 2008-2011 and continuing until the present, the S&P GSCI Commodity Index has declined by about 80 percent over the last 13 years.

The recent rally in the S&P GSCI Commodity Index (GTX) in 2020 appears to be a reaction to the DXY price weakness and the rebound in the U.S. 10 year T-bond yields. The GTX Index moves in the opposite trend to the dollar and in a similar path to the T-bond yields (Chart1).

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Commodities

Thursday, December 17, 2020

Gold, Silver and the Commodities Supercycle / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Richard_Mills

On Tuesday, Nov. 24 copper prices hit a fresh 2020 pinnacle of $3.52 per pound on the Comex in New York. The red metal’s best performance in seven years was on the strength of Chinese manufacturing and construction expanding at its fastest in a decade. The country’s manufacturing PMI for November, seen as a leading indicator of copper usage, rose to 52.1 while the Caixin manufacturing PMI, which includes both large and small firms, jumped to a 10-year high of 54.9. Any number above 50 indicates an expansion. The construction index leapt from 59.8 in October to 60.5.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 17, 2020

Online commodity investment – Great option for investing your money / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Sumeet_Manhas

There are many number of platforms on online where you can invest more than just currencies and stocks, where the best and great option to invest your valuable money is commodities. Investing in online commodities is an option and you can get help from experts to do better trading. In fact, you can make use of different online trading website for making you invest commodities. Generally, online investments involve in handling certain types of investment transactions and the commodity trading is one of those things where people show interest in investing their money. This is where the place you buy the certain amount of commodity and sell it at the predetermined date based on the future value of the product because in order to get good profit on your investment there is always some kind of risk in losing money but this something that is very similar to all types of the investment where you do your business for profit.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 17, 2020

Are you finding the effective tips to trade commodities? / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Sumeet_Manhas

If you are a newbie to trade commodities, especially in the virtual market then it is very essential thing to understand the basics about the particular industry in which you are going to start trading. There are number of approaches to take where each of the stage has different commercial things which you need to consider, these includes choice of the product to deal in the trade, techniques to be adapted and establishment of the virtual account to be carry out in the transaction process. As a first thing you need to be choosing the product in which you are going to deal with in your commodity trading. If you any substantial authority in the ecommerce circles then you can also select the goods like currencies and precious metals where this could not be a hard choice for you.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger examines the charts for commodities like soybeans and the components used in handheld electronic devices, and reflects on what they say about the future prospects of those who hold mortgages and invest in precious metals.

As I peruse my favorite website in search of technical patterns for various commodities and stocks, I am reminded of the soon-to-be-immortal words of former stock salesman and current Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, when he announced a major shift in policy related to "inflation targeting." As the Gregorian-like chant of "Bye-bye 2%" echoes throughout the room, a second memory appears of a quote that I lifted from the pages of Yale Hirsch's timeless "Stock Trader's Almanac," where it is said that "Inflation is like toothpaste; once out of the tube, it is impossible to get it back in."

Rather than applying my obsessive-compulsive personality disorder to the same old charts of first gold and silver, then the senior and junior miners, and ending with virtually everything that is in my personal portfolio, I decided this morning to change it up. They say that "sometimes a change is better than a rest," so as the Powell-esque mantra resonated in the background, I thought of food prices and how my trusty government agencies are constantly feeding me information about how "subdued" the inflation rates are thanks to the mercurial talents of the central bankers.

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Commodities

Sunday, August 30, 2020

Powerful Deflationary Winds" Include a "Bust in Commodity Prices / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

Elliott Wave International's analysts have posited that the next big global monetary event will be deflation, not inflation.

The writer of an August 18 Telegraph article also sees "powerful deflationary winds."

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Commodities

Monday, August 24, 2020

Powerful Deflationary Winds" Include a "Bust in Commodity Prices / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

"Powerful Deflationary Winds" Include a "Bust in Commodity Prices"

Elliott Wave International's analysts have posited that the next big global monetary event will be deflation, not inflation.

The writer of an August 18 Telegraph article also sees "powerful deflationary winds."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, July 23, 2020

Weakness in commodity prices suggests a slowing economy / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Donald_W_Dony

As the world's economic engine starts to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for certain key commodities are a good indicator of the rebound strength.

The S&P GSCI Commodity Index (Chart 1) is a collection of 24 commodities from all commodity sectors (energy products, industrial metals, agricultural products, livestock products and precious metals).

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Commodities

Friday, April 24, 2020

Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Rambus_Chartology

After a long term bear market in most commodity related stocks we are starting to hear analyst talk about inflation. From a Chartology perspective the deflationary scenario is still in play but how much lower can this sector go? In tonights Weekend Report, I’m going to update some long term commodity charts we’ve been following for years to see where they are currently trading in their bear cycle.

Lets begin by looking at one of the most widely followed commodity indexes the CRB. This 20 year monthly chart clearly shows the bear market began in July of 2008 which puts the age of its bear market at 12 years and counting. The initial crash, out of the 2008 high, was the same crash that the stock markets and PM complex experienced. The countertrend rally out of the 2009 crash low setup the next important high in the ongoing bear market which was the 5 year H&S consolidation pattern. The impulse move out of that 5 year H&S consolidation pattern took the CRB index down to the January 2016 low where we saw another countertrend rally that concluded in May of 2018 forming the head of the 4 year H&S consolidation pattern. The H&S neckline gave way in February of this year and has reached the minimum H&S price objective at 134.23. The CRB index has now reached an important point within its impulse move down where we could see either another small consolidation pattern start forming, similar to the blue expanding triangle halfway pattern in 2005, or some type of reversal pattern.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 05, 2020

Inverse Energy ETF AT Breakout Level – Could Rally Further / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Following up on an exciting article we shared with friends and followers on January 17, 2020, it appears ERY has reached the first stage for profit taking with a fairly strong potential we may see this rally continue even higher.  Please review the following repost of our original research and analysis of ERY back in early January.

January 17, 2020: ENERGY CONTINUES BASING SETUP – BREAKOUT EXPECTED NEAR JANUARY 24TH

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Commodities

Saturday, November 09, 2019

How Do YOU Know the Direction of a Market's Larger Trend? / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

Fundamental analysis versus Elliott wave analysis: the winner for predicting the 9-year long commodity bear market is clear.

95% of traders fail. It's a day-drinking, country-music kind of statistic. Think: "Friends in Sell-Low, Buy-High Places."

One article attempts to quantify the reasons, citing: "SCIENTIST DISCOVERED WHY MOST TRADERS LOSE MONEY -- 24 SURPRISING STATISTICS." See number 14:

"Investors tend to sell winning investments while holding on to their losing investments."

In other words, their timing is off key. And when it comes to seizing market opportunities, nothing is as important as timing. Our friends at Elliott Wave International said it best in the pages of their educational reference guide, Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior:

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

U.S. Dollar Stall is Good for Commodities / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Donald_W_Dony

After months of advancing, the U.S. dollar's climb is showing signs of weakness.

Over the last five years, the greenback has risen almost 20 percent, whereas other world currencies have not been so lucky.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, May 30, 2019

Gold, Silver, Oil, Cryptos - Audio Analysis / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY: First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” which is what has been happening.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Commodities Are the Right Story for 2019 / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Richard_Mills

The markets are up and down like a bride's nightgown, as my dad used to say, bitcoin is in the toilet, and tech stocks, once as steady as the banks, are as unreliable as an old Apple computer. If you’re reluctant to dip your toe back into the stock market, you’re not alone.

‘The Hunt for Red October’ was a great movie but nobody thought ‘Red October’ would actually happen. In October it did. Anyone that was invested saw their equities turn as red as a Russian submarine commander. The S&P 500 churned. When the calendar mercifully turned to November, the benchmark US stock index had fallen 8.5%, the worst month since February 2009 and the ugliest October since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The Dow and the Nasdaq were equally pummeled.

And then it kept going. December was the worst month since the Great Depression. The financial talking heads couldn’t decide what was going on. The trade war with China, speculation that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in December (it did) and slowing global growth, were all trotted out as culprits. Algorithmic trading and end-of-the-year tax selling also played a role, as did good old profit-taking by retail investors, who figured it was as good a time as any to exit a nine-year bull market.

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Commodities

Friday, December 14, 2018

If You Aren’t Making Music with Commodities, Try This Song Instead / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

Cocoa's 2016-7 bear market reversal was in total harmony with one kind of analysis

If financial markets were styles of music, equities, especially the most stable Big Board stocks, are like great classical compositions: They're made up of consistent, steady tempos you could listen to all day with the occasional booming or crashing note.

Commodities are different. They're the jazz players delivering choppy, frenetic tunes with jolting chord changes.

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