Category: Commodities Trading
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, April 29, 2024
GOLD, OIL and WHEAT STOCKS / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Kelsey_Williams
Financially speaking, the markets have been all over the map in the past four years since the onset of Covid and the self-inflicted wounds from forced economic shutdown. I went back to August 2020, five months after the festivities began, and pulled up some charts which show the price action since then for gold (money), wheat (food), crude oil (energy), and stocks (S&P 500). I will make some comments after each chart and provide observations at the end of the article. We’ll start with gold…
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Friday, October 20, 2023
As Geopolitical Fires Obscure Commodities' Path / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Crisis, crisis everywhere. But objective, free from the noise of the news, forecasting of commodity prices starts here, with our free Special Report ($155 value).
The geopolitical landscape is wracked. War in Ukraine, humanitarian crisis in Syria, and now, what Vox Media on October 15 called the "worst conflict in decades" between Israel and Hamas. For mainstream analysts who use news as the main predictor of price trends, the escalating tensions have "cast a shadow of uncertainty over global financial markets." (Oct. 11 Moneycontrol)
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Monday, February 20, 2023
More Headwinds for Commodity Market Bulls / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Donald_W_Dony
Commodity bulls are facing a challenging year ahead.
Some natural resources were benefiting and riding on the coattails of mounting inflationary pressure in 2020 through to mid-2022, such as oil and Natural gas, while others (gold and silver) were still prospering from the low US dollar and near zero Fed interest rates in 2019.
However, conditions started to change for most commodities in mid-2022 (Chart 1).
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Wednesday, February 08, 2023
Today’s Best Commodity Market Trading Setups / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Hi,
You're invited to a free commodity-trading webinar!
Join Elliott Wave International's Chief Commodity Analyst, Jim Martens, this Thursday, Feb. 9 at 1 p.m. Eastern time for a special, live webinar: Today's Best Commodity Setups.
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Friday, July 08, 2022
Commodities: Bounce or Something More? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Gary_Tanashian
Commodities have been corrected hard, generally to support
It is amazing how compressed the cycles are in the markets these days. But maybe it’s not so surprising when you consider the constant involvement of meddling, manipulating central banks and even governments. Add a dash of hysterical media and the human instinct for knee-jerk herding and voila, there you have it; sentiment in commodities (and the inflation trades in general) going from absolutely rock solid (over) bullish to bleak in the span of a month.
All of this in the wake of an entity that held out dovish as long as it could before being directed by the market to put on its hawk costume and go steroidal in its inflation fighting stance. Seriously, market participants are taking their cues from a monetary authority that itself is taking cues from the bond market’s signaling (tardy though they were on the uptake). The link above shows the 3 month T-bill yield’s directive that the Fed aggressively raise rates back back in February. There were other signals as well demanding the same.
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Friday, March 25, 2022
Hot Commodities! Is the 2-year rally nearly Done or Jjust Starting? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
FREE March 28 - April 1.
Hi,
You may already know that the CRB Commodities Index is up 200% since the April 2020 low.
Even if you haven’t been following the broad Index, you've no doubt felt the effects of rising commodity prices in your wallet.
But there is a silver-lining flip side: Over the past 2 years, commodities have also offered massive opportunities. And they're not done.
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Sunday, January 09, 2022
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Gary_Tanashian
A stroll through recent and not so recent inflationary history
[edit] Some wording and a couple typos cleaned up from original post, no changes to themes…
A Cynical Fed is a Dangerous Fed
On ‘Fed minutes Wednesday’ the media amplified the noise, the machines are doing what the machines do and running with it, and it’s all eyes on the great and powerful Fed (of Oz).
The Fed created the cyclical inflation (in NFTRH we detailed and managed the process successfully in real time) and thus the Fed created the cycle. In 2021 the Fed was exposed to the public as the agent of inflation it actually is, and when the inflation threatened to get out of hand they went into damage control mode. Now the Fed is trying to cool the inflation, which means cooling the cycle itself. You can’t have your inflated cake and eat it too. Not when the racket is exposed to the public.
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Thursday, May 13, 2021
Where’s The Fed? Watch Precious Metals For Signs Of Inflation Panic / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We recently completed some interesting research related to one of our newest Custom Indexes – the Commodities to Smart Cash Index (C2SC Heat Index) – weighted by the US Dollar and VIX. We’ve been reviewing this new index for months watching it to see how it reacts to various trends in Lumber, Gold, Treasury Yields, the Smart Cash Index, and other weighted values. Recently, we added the Fed Funds Rate to this chart and suddenly things took on a different perspective.
We had drawn horizontal lines on the Commodities to Smart Cash index highlighting historical high, low, and confluence price levels. Historically, when we see a chart that channels in a sideways range, one can often identify high and low price thresholds while also trying to find a confluence level (where a continued rise or decline in price is likely to continue). We can see how the US Fed reacted to rising inflationary concerns almost immediately as the C2SC Index rose near or above 6.5 (the RED Confluence level) throughout the past 25 years. Each time, in 1994, 1999, and 2005, when a period of increasing inflationary trends, the Fed was quick to act to contain inflation. The only time the Fed acted differently was in 2013~2015 and in 2020~now.
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Tuesday, March 30, 2021
Have Commodities Peaked? We Doubt It / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
While everyone was paying attention to the FOMC, Gold & Silver, and the Treasury Yields, it appears the recent commodity rally trend took a big hit on Thursday, March 18, 2021. Our guess is that the FOMC statement did nothing to support the continued commodity price rally as the US Fed continued with near-zero interest rates and economic support through 2023. The rally in commodities was likely based on expectations of a much stronger economic recovery as the COVID vaccines take the pressure off economic shutdowns and further restrictive economic conditions, but that may not be the case.
Commodities Rollover May Be Misleading Traders
The rollover in commodities suggests the markets are reacting to renewed expectations, post-FOMC. They may continue to consolidate near support (near $16.30) before attempting to move higher as traders digest the Fed comments and fall back into economic recovery expectations. Any move below $16.00 as seen on the chart below may likely prompt a consolidation phase within historical support channels (see the Weekly DBC chart below).
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Wednesday, March 24, 2021
Commodities Comeback / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth, editor of Gold Resource Investor, examines the commodity supercycle and the role recency bias plays in investment decisions. Recency bias is a funny thing. It's human nature to expect the near future to look like the recent past.
But we all know that's not how things always play out.
And that can be costly, even dangerous, for investors.
Take long term bonds, for example. Ten-year Treasury yields have more than tripled, from 0.54% to 1.66% since last July. Does that mean the 40-year bond bull market is dead?
Tough to say, or course. We'll only know that for sure with hindsight. You know… recency bias.
If nothing else, the bond market is telling us price inflation is becoming a thing again, notwithstanding what the Fed might be telegraphing.
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Monday, March 15, 2021
Cotton, soybeans, crude oil: Simplicity wins / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
You come to our website looking for market answers.
Well, with the help of our friends at Elliott Wave International, we are happy to offer you a new, free opportunity to see what's likely next for cotton, soybeans and crude oil -- for the entire 2021.
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
The Commodity Cycle / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Donald_W_Dony
Commodity prices have remained in a prolonged downward trend since the price peak in mid-2008. Driven lower by a firming U.S. dollar (DXY) beginning in 2008-2011 and continuing until the present, the S&P GSCI Commodity Index has declined by about 80 percent over the last 13 years.
The recent rally in the S&P GSCI Commodity Index (GTX) in 2020 appears to be a reaction to the DXY price weakness and the rebound in the U.S. 10 year T-bond yields. The GTX Index moves in the opposite trend to the dollar and in a similar path to the T-bond yields (Chart1).
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Thursday, December 17, 2020
Gold, Silver and the Commodities Supercycle / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Richard_Mills
On Tuesday, Nov. 24 copper prices hit a fresh 2020 pinnacle of $3.52 per pound on the Comex in New York. The red metal’s best performance in seven years was on the strength of Chinese manufacturing and construction expanding at its fastest in a decade. The country’s manufacturing PMI for November, seen as a leading indicator of copper usage, rose to 52.1 while the Caixin manufacturing PMI, which includes both large and small firms, jumped to a 10-year high of 54.9. Any number above 50 indicates an expansion. The construction index leapt from 59.8 in October to 60.5.
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Thursday, December 17, 2020
Online commodity investment – Great option for investing your money / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Sumeet_Manhas
There are many number of platforms on online where you can invest more than just currencies and stocks, where the best and great option to invest your valuable money is commodities. Investing in online commodities is an option and you can get help from experts to do better trading. In fact, you can make use of different online trading website for making you invest commodities. Generally, online investments involve in handling certain types of investment transactions and the commodity trading is one of those things where people show interest in investing their money. This is where the place you buy the certain amount of commodity and sell it at the predetermined date based on the future value of the product because in order to get good profit on your investment there is always some kind of risk in losing money but this something that is very similar to all types of the investment where you do your business for profit.
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Thursday, December 17, 2020
Are you finding the effective tips to trade commodities? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Sumeet_Manhas
If you are a newbie to trade commodities, especially in the virtual market then it is very essential thing to understand the basics about the particular industry in which you are going to start trading. There are number of approaches to take where each of the stage has different commercial things which you need to consider, these includes choice of the product to deal in the trade, techniques to be adapted and establishment of the virtual account to be carry out in the transaction process. As a first thing you need to be choosing the product in which you are going to deal with in your commodity trading. If you any substantial authority in the ecommerce circles then you can also select the goods like currencies and precious metals where this could not be a hard choice for you.
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Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger examines the charts for commodities like soybeans and the components used in handheld electronic devices, and reflects on what they say about the future prospects of those who hold mortgages and invest in precious metals.
As I peruse my favorite website in search of technical patterns for various commodities and stocks, I am reminded of the soon-to-be-immortal words of former stock salesman and current Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, when he announced a major shift in policy related to "inflation targeting." As the Gregorian-like chant of "Bye-bye 2%" echoes throughout the room, a second memory appears of a quote that I lifted from the pages of Yale Hirsch's timeless "Stock Trader's Almanac," where it is said that "Inflation is like toothpaste; once out of the tube, it is impossible to get it back in."
Rather than applying my obsessive-compulsive personality disorder to the same old charts of first gold and silver, then the senior and junior miners, and ending with virtually everything that is in my personal portfolio, I decided this morning to change it up. They say that "sometimes a change is better than a rest," so as the Powell-esque mantra resonated in the background, I thought of food prices and how my trusty government agencies are constantly feeding me information about how "subdued" the inflation rates are thanks to the mercurial talents of the central bankers.
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Sunday, August 30, 2020
Powerful Deflationary Winds" Include a "Bust in Commodity Prices / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Elliott Wave International's analysts have posited that the next big global monetary event will be deflation, not inflation.
The writer of an August 18 Telegraph article also sees "powerful deflationary winds."
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Monday, August 24, 2020
Powerful Deflationary Winds" Include a "Bust in Commodity Prices / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
"Powerful Deflationary Winds" Include a "Bust in Commodity Prices"
Elliott Wave International's analysts have posited that the next big global monetary event will be deflation, not inflation.
The writer of an August 18 Telegraph article also sees "powerful deflationary winds."
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Thursday, July 23, 2020
Weakness in commodity prices suggests a slowing economy / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Donald_W_Dony
As the world's economic engine starts to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for certain key commodities are a good indicator of the rebound strength.
The S&P GSCI Commodity Index (Chart 1) is a collection of 24 commodities from all commodity sectors (energy products, industrial metals, agricultural products, livestock products and precious metals).
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Friday, April 24, 2020
Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Rambus_Chartology
After a long term bear market in most commodity related stocks we are starting to hear analyst talk about inflation. From a Chartology perspective the deflationary scenario is still in play but how much lower can this sector go? In tonights Weekend Report, I’m going to update some long term commodity charts we’ve been following for years to see where they are currently trading in their bear cycle.
Lets begin by looking at one of the most widely followed commodity indexes the CRB. This 20 year monthly chart clearly shows the bear market began in July of 2008 which puts the age of its bear market at 12 years and counting. The initial crash, out of the 2008 high, was the same crash that the stock markets and PM complex experienced. The countertrend rally out of the 2009 crash low setup the next important high in the ongoing bear market which was the 5 year H&S consolidation pattern. The impulse move out of that 5 year H&S consolidation pattern took the CRB index down to the January 2016 low where we saw another countertrend rally that concluded in May of 2018 forming the head of the 4 year H&S consolidation pattern. The H&S neckline gave way in February of this year and has reached the minimum H&S price objective at 134.23. The CRB index has now reached an important point within its impulse move down where we could see either another small consolidation pattern start forming, similar to the blue expanding triangle halfway pattern in 2005, or some type of reversal pattern.
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