Category: Demographics
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, July 02, 2013
Exploding Demographic Time Bombs / Politics / Demographics
By: Money_Morning
Greg Madison writes: When a big economy hits the shoals, there are options.
You can take a Keynesian approach. You can take a Friedmanian approach. There are Bernankes, there are Nodas , the Austrian School, the Chicago School, expansion and contraction - however a government wants to play it, whatever the ideology, there are options and precedents for getting the economy going again.
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Saturday, May 18, 2013
Commodities Boom to be Driven by the Urbanisation of 1 Billion More People / Commodities / Demographics
By: Richard_Mills
Many, many years ago during a lengthy argument with a friend he told me to 'give it a doubt' - he meant I was wrong.
The herd is convinced the commodities boom is over. Doom and gloom, the sky is falling, the bears argument sounds convincing - growth has stopped, economies are slowing. Looking at the TSX.V's performance (most of the world's mineral exploration firms call the Venture Exchange home) it's as if people are convinced the need to search for, develop and mine new mineral deposits is over.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2013
Falling World Population And The New Economic Prosperity / Economics / Demographics
By: Andrew_McKillop
TWO PARADIGMS
The so-called Trente Glorieuse years (1948-1975) of fast economic growth, low annual budget deficits, almost zero unemployment, cheap oil, small or zero national trade deficits, innovation and liberty in the Western countries - was also a period of population growth. Ever since, political thinking confused this result - population growth - with its causes which included fast economic growth. Still today, nearly all western countries have "natalist" policies trying to grow the national population, despite the reality of slow or no economic growth, sky high unemployment, and all the diseconomies of high population.
Saturday, December 22, 2012
US Birth Rate Hits New Record Low, A Nation of Singles, Implications for the Future / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
Today’s OTB is not directly about the economy or investment, but rather about a key demographic shift that will certainly have a major effect on both. I have a somewhat different take on the shift than our author, my very-long-time friend Gary D. Halbert (founder of ProFutures and former business partner from the ’90s); and I will be writing about this next year. There is a significant transformation going on in my thinking about how the political world in the US (and, I suspect, much of Europe as well) impacts the economy.
Sunday, December 16, 2012
U.S. Boomer Demographics and the Unemployment Rate / Economics / Demographics
By: Mike_Shedlock
A week ago in Startling Look at Job Demographics by Age I posted the following chart made with data that I downloaded from the St. Louis Fed.
Thursday, December 06, 2012
Are American's Having Enough Babies to Stop Turning Japanese? / Politics / Demographics
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:
A new study by The Pew Research Center shows that the birth rate in the United States has dropped to the lowest level since 1920, when reliable statistics were first made available.
The birth rate dropped precipitously last year to only 63.2 per 1,000 women of childbearing age (which is defined as 15 to 44 years of age). That is half of what it was in 1957 at its peak.
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Sunday, December 02, 2012
What Is the End Game? Exponential Growth in Population, Energy and Debt / Economics / Demographics
By: DK_Matai
As Helen Keller once said, "To be blind is bad, but worse is to have eyes and not to see!" Is the greatest shortcoming of the human race our inability to understand the exponential function? The Earth's human population reached 1 billion in 1804, 2 billion in 1927, 3 billion in 1959, 4 billion in 1974, 5 billion in late 1986 and 6 billion in late 1999. In late 2011, we crossed 7 billion people on this planet and we are projected to cross 8 billion in 2025.
Sunday, August 26, 2012
Baby Boomers Are Breaking the Deal, A College Degree is No longer Enough / Politics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
There is something missing from this thing we are calling a recovery. For most in the US it does not feel like a recovery, and for good reason: the jobs aren’t there. But for some groups it is a recovery, and more. And that reveals an even bigger problem. Today, in a summer-shortened Thoughts from the Frontline, we look at the trends in employment as well as take note of a signpost we passed on the way to finding out that we can’t pay for all the future entitlements we have been promised. It’s a short letter but hopefully thought-provoking. At the end, I note a webinar and a few speeches I’ll be giving in the near future.
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
The Coming Generational Storm, Living Beyond Our Children's Means and Doing Ponzi Proud / Politics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
There are plenty of books about the entitlement disaster in our future, but few come with the backing of an academic press. The Clash of Generations is an exception. Written by economist Larry Kotlikoff, one of the creators of generational accounting, and my good friend of long standing, Scott Burns, Clash shows what current policies have already done to young people, tells stories about how both parties have allowed it to happen, and offers actual policy solutions– for banking, taxes, healthcare, and Social Security.
Friday, April 27, 2012
Zero Population Growth No Longer A Shameful Doctrine / Politics / Demographics
By: Andrew_McKillop
The government-friendly environment and development aid NGOs avoid this one like the plague: saying the world is massively overpopulated is only for a few privileged speakers - like Obama's chief science adviser John P. Holdren. Within the Club of Madrid and WorldShift Network, however, there is almost total support for the Zero Population Growth (ZPG) stance of Holdren, Paul Ehlirch and a growing number of influential voices.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Global Aging Represents a Threat to World's Economy / Economics / Demographics
By: Barry_Elias
Sixty years ago, 34 developed nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) had seven workers to support each retiree.
Today, there are only four workers per beneficiary.
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Monday, October 31, 2011
Why 7 Billionth Person's Birthday Is Nothing to Celebrate / Economics / Demographics
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
The world's 7 billionth person is likely to be born today (Monday).
However, this birthday isn't something to celebrate.
Since the global population passed 6 billion only in late 1999, we've added more than 80 million people each year on average. And the environmental footprint of those people is expanding rapidly as emerging market populations modernize.
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Sunday, October 30, 2011
Happy 7th Billion Person Planet Earth / Economics / Demographics
By: Trader_Mark
If the United Nations estimates are anywhere near correct, today marks the day the world's population hits 7 billion. Could be off a few days one way or the other, but you get the gist. I actually did a story about this in 2008 - looks like it came a few months earlier than predicted! [Jun 20, 2008: World Population to Hit 7 Billion by 2012] Obviously this is not a 'fast money' trading event, but considering it was just twelve years ago the planet hit 6 billion, it's a pretty amazing milestone. Projections are for another two billion in about 2 generations (2050ish). From an investing perspective the growth of the world's middle class is an important development, as is the wage/labor pressure from hundreds of millions continuing to flood the world's labor markets. Tom Stevenson from Fidelity takes a look at three key outcomes from this, some of which we've discussed quite a bit a few years ago. Note - Nebraska farmland is up 20-30% year over year, as the 'farmland' trade is one of the big long term winners.
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Sunday, September 18, 2011
World's Declining, Graying Population Doesn't Spell Economic Growth / Economics / Demographics
By: Bill_Bonner
The Lehman bankruptcy was a much more important event than 9/11. It marked the end of a 60-year credit expansion. Maybe it marked the high water mark for the US Empire, too. And the beginning of the end for the US dollar-based world monetary system.
But the occasion went by yesterday without much notice.
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Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Do We Have a Medicare Budgetary Problem or an Aging Population Problem? / Politics / Demographics
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Chart 1 shows what is driving the projections of federal spending (and, implicitly, the national debt) in the upcoming 11 fiscal years - mandatory federal outlays and interest on the debt. What is driving up mandatory outlays is spending on retirees - Medicare and Social Security.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Demographics, Energy and The End Game: Exponential Functions / Politics / Demographics
By: DK_Matai
If the Middle East conflicts continue to escalate could oil touch $150-$200 per barrel in the months ahead? What are the consequences of this development for both the East and the West? Let us not forget that the Middle East turmoil was primarily triggered by high food prices, inflation and youth unemployment. As the turmoil in the Middle East escalates, continuously bumping the price of energy upwards, this is having a further knock-on effect on the price of other natural resources as well as food.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
The Final Four Ways to Invest in Global Demographic Trends / Stock-Markets / Demographics
By: Money_Morning
Larry D. Spears writes:
Stock-market icon Warren Buffett once said that "our favorite holding period is forever."
Clearly, if you want to be a stock-market winner, you need to find profit opportunities that offer a predictable, long-term payoff.
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Tuesday, March 01, 2011
Population Reduction Through Designed Economic Collapse / Politics / Demographics
By: Chris_Kitze
John Galt writes: In case you haven’t noticed, the great culling of humanity is taking place right now. Unfortunately, preparation needs to begin for two gloomy scenarios: slow economic collapse, or catastrophic demolition.
According to the elite's own admission, Corporation Earth is bankrupt and bloated and must be downsized. In other words, that which mathematically cannot continue, will not continue; and it's time to cut the fat.
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Friday, February 18, 2011
The Gerontocracy, Workers are the Economic Slaves of Pensioners / Politics / Demographics
By: MISES
Jan Iwanik writes: I suspect that funded retirement plans like American 401(k)s British private pensions, or Polish open pension plans (OFE) cannot survive in a centralized democracy. The only alternatives are unfunded schemes such as American social security, British state pensions, or the Polish Social Insurance Institution (ZUS).
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Global Aging and the Crisis of the 2020s, Demographic Storms Ahead / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
From the fall of the Roman and the Mayan empires to the Black Death to the colonization of the New World and the youth-driven revolutions of the twentieth century, demographic trends have played a decisive role in many of the great invasions, political upheavals, migrations, and environmental catastrophes of history. By the 2020s, an ominous new conjuncture of demographic trends may once again threaten widespread disruption. I am, of course, talking about global aging, which is likely to have a profound effect on economic growth, living standards, and the shape of the world order.