Category: Economic Statistics
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
GDP, Inflation, Employment Economic Statistics: It’s All a Lie / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Harry_Dent
Rodney Johnson writes: I’m not much for glossing over the true state of affairs just to make things look better, which is why I take issue with many government reports.
When it comes to providing clear information on the economy, the U.S. government is more late-night pitchman than serious news anchor. And to make matters worse, many of the numbers they peddle have been “adjusted” so that reports show better results.
Friday, May 15, 2015
How GDP Metrics Distort Our View of the Economy / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: MISES
Chris Casey writes:
GDP purports to measure economic activity while largely divorcing itself from the quality, profitability, depth, breadth, improvement, advancement, and rationalization of goods and services provided.
For example, even if a ship — built at great expense — cruised without passengers, fished without success, or ferried without cargo; it nevertheless contributed to GDP. Profitable for investors or stranded in the sand; it added to GDP. Plying the seas or rusting into an orange honeycomb shell; the nation’s GDP grew.1
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Friday, May 01, 2015
Investigating The U.S. GDP Deflator: Wildly Differing Results Depending on Your Choice / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Mike_Shedlock
As noted in Real Q1 GDP 0.2% vs. Consensus 1.0%; Disaster in the Details I got the first quarter GDP forecast details correct.
However, a bit of self-assessment with differing GDP deflators shows my prediction of close to zero growth could easily have looked rather silly.
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Friday, April 10, 2015
Confusion over US Unemployment Data / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Unemployment is the one statistic that one would have thought is easy to define: just total up the number of people on unemployment benefit and there's your answer. It is however much more complex, particularly in a large country like the United States, whose potential labour force is estimated to be 250,080,000 across all 50 states plus Washington DC. Of this total 101,479,000 are not currently employed, a ratio of over 40%, and of these only 8,575,000 are deemed to be actually unemployed. The relevant figures are here.
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Saturday, April 04, 2015
Is the U.S. Government Lying About Unemployment Statistics? / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: Over the last two days, I've shown you how I gauge the health of the U.S. economy.
I've also shown you why you can't blindly trust the government's economic statistics. Not because of some conspiracy agenda... but because measuring a $17 trillion economy is extremely difficult.
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Monday, March 09, 2015
The Grand Deception Continues, More Fed Propaganda / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Michael_Pento
Last Friday a photograph of a dress, whose exact colors were in doubt and became the subject of much debate, dominated the Internet. Not only is this a perfect example of the inane distractions that the public is fascinated with, but it is also a topic that should be elevated to a higher level of discussion. That is, how people can look at the same thing and yet interpret it in different ways?
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
U.S. Economy Data Driven or Driven Data / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Peter_Schiff
There can be little doubt that data releases rather than experience or intuition are driving the economic conversation. This is perhaps a function of the disconnection that many people feel about an economy that they no longer understand. Rather than trusting their own eyes or their own gut to form an opinion, it's much easier to grab a set of convenient numbers. The big question then becomes what numbers you choose to look at and which you choose to ignore.
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
GDP Economic Statistic : A Brief But Affectionate History / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: John_Mauldin
“Measurement theory shows that strong assumptions are required for certain statistics to provide meaningful information about reality. Measurement theory encourages people to think about the meaning of their data. It encourages critical assessment of the assumptions behind the analysis.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
I Give You: The GDP of Sillyland / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Raul_I_Meijer
I had seen the reports on Italy and Britain preparing to add heroin and hookers to their GDP, but I had put that down to some kind of desperate quirkiness. Now, though, I heard today that this is actually due to an EU directive, and the number crunchers at Eurostat demand countries obey this newfound accounting magic trick.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
GDP - They’re Lying To Us / Politics / Economic Statistics
By: John_Rubino
Today the US took its next-to-last stab at calculating First Quarter GDP, and the downward revision was impressive even by recent standards. It now appears that the economy, well, here’s how Bloomberg puts it:
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Tuesday, June 24, 2014
Economic Gross Output: J.M. Keynes versus J.-B. Say / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Steve_H_Hanke
In late April of this year, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) at the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it would start reporting a new data series as part of the U.S. national income accounts. In addition to gross domestic product (GDP), the BEA will start reporting gross output (GO). This announcement went virtually unnoticed and unreported — an unfortunate, but not uncommon, oversight on the part of the financial press. Yes, GO represents a significant breakthrough.
Monday, June 16, 2014
Mafia GDP, Systemic Conspiracy to Alter Economic Data / Politics / Economic Statistics
By: Michael_Pento
Governments are not engaged in a systemic conspiracy to alter economic data after it has been collected. To get a multitude of individuals agreeing on how to fudge information would be far too difficult to control. Instead, it is much easier for a small group of government officials to simply change the formula for calculating the data points that they desire to manipulate to make the information seem more palatable.
Thursday, June 12, 2014
Death Cross For Global Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Andrew_McKillop
The Perfect Storm
World Bank estimates and forecasts of economic growth are as slippy and always-cut-back as IMF forecasts. They share the same “optimistic cognitive bias”. The Bank's latest forecasts, issued Tuesday 10 June, used the terms “bumpy start to 2014”, nearly 6 months through the year, and talked about “cold winter conditions” slowing growth in “several countries”. Not in Europe. It had one of its warmest winters for decades – and growth declined in Europe, also!
Monday, June 09, 2014
Geopolitics in Asia with Marc Faber & Understanding GDP Like Never Before / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Keith_Hilden
In our latest Squawkonomics interview with Marc Faber, we were told a story of a petulant and wincing state carrying a heavy burden and unwilling to release its full spectrum dominance view on its administration of the world in light of a recent economic fallback, a declining economic share of the global economy, and the very stewardship of the global reserve currency being in flux. The story did not have a clear ending, nor did the reign of the world come effortlessly into the hands of newly important states. Nor did it portend the future of frontier markets and developing countries that could very well benefit from a US with a declining share of global GDP. Perhaps overlooking a wide expanse of undeveloped frontier markets, a quote from Dune author Frank Herbert would be best. “There is no real ending. It’s just the place where you stop the story.” Indeed, that however the reserve currency question is answered, and however US economic hegemony looks in 10 or 20 years, there is one inevitable variable that stays constant throughout the geopolitical and economic King of the Hill tug of war between global powers. As two or more tigers duel on a mountain for global financial supremacy, the continued development of the rest of the developing world goes on unabated. That is a guarantee.
Monday, June 09, 2014
Economic Doom & Gloom Sells / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: EconMatters
Improving Economic Data
We have noticed that despite an improvement in the economic fundamentals of the United States as per the robust manufacturing numbers, automobile sales data, and upbeat employment numbers in 2014 many go out of their way to find negatives in every economic report instead of focusing on the relativeness of the data. In other words, are we doing better in these areas than two years ago on an “apples to apples comparison” basis?
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Saturday, May 10, 2014
Just How Distorted are Those GDP Economic Numbers? / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Raul_I_Meijer
I want to share two graphs that Tyler Durden posted yesterday and let you make up your own mind as to what they mean. We’ve all been able to see how US Q1′s official GDP growth was revised to 0.1%, after which Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan said they put the number at -0.6% and -0.8%, respectively. But Goldman, not to be outdone by itself, or that’s the impression, then comes out with a new prediction for Q2, for a rise of no less than 3.9%, or 4.5 % above their own Q1 number. Durden caught that one too:
Tuesday, March 04, 2014
U.S. Real Disposable Income Per Capita Analysis / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: This morning I posted my latest Big Four update, which included today’s release of the January data for Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments. Now let’s take a closer look at a rather different calculation of incomes: “Real” Disposable Personal Income Per Capita.
The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator has been significantly disrupted by the bizarre but not unexpected oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013.
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Tuesday, February 25, 2014
Reviving the ‘Real World’ Scenario That’s Disappeared from Government Reports / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Submissions
F. Wiley writes: For 50 years or so the federal government has deliberately and to an increasing extent misstated probable future budget deficits. Democrats and Republicans are guilty. The White House is guilty. And so is Congress. Private firms that deliberately misrepresent their financial statements in this fashion would be guilty of a crime… The magnitude of the misrepresentation is breathtaking. - Former St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole, writing in the Wall Street Journal last April
Tuesday, August 20, 2013
The GDP Economic Growth Distractor / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Peter_Schiff
Albert Einstein, a man who knew a thing or two about celestial mechanics, supposedly once called compound interest "the most powerful force in the universe." While the remark was likely meant to be funny (astrophysicists can be hilarious), it sheds light on the often overlooked fact that small changes, over time, can yield enormous results. Over eons, small creeks can carve large canyons through solid rock. The same phenomenon may be at work in our economy. A minor, but persistent under bias in the inflation gauge used in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may have created a wildly distorted picture of our economic health.
Saturday, August 17, 2013
China's Fraudulent Inflation and GDP Economic Data / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Mike_Shedlock
It's easy to make a case that GDP data everywhere is fraudulent because of the definition which includes government deficit spending, regardless of how ridiculous or useless the spending is. However, China takes the distortions to a level well beyond other countries.