Category: Protectionism
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, December 23, 2018
President Trump's Trade Rubbish / Politics / Protectionism
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The U.S. trade war rages on. With each passing day, there is news about a flare up, primarily on the front where the United States and China are confronting each other. While these flare ups rattle the markets, they don’t seem to rattle President Xi or President Trump. Indeed, neither Xi nor Trump seem inclined to give ground. For his part, Trump has recently tasked Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. Trade Representative, to lead the U.S. in trade negotiations with China. And, Lightizer, having a long ultra-protectionist record, has a reputation for taking no prisoners in trade battles.
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Four Reasons Why a US China Trade Deal Isn’t Coming This Weekend… / Stock-Markets / Protectionism
By: Graham_Summers
Stock markets are rallying today on the belief that somehow the US and China will sign a trade deal at the upcoming G-20 meeting.
Investors are buying this narrative despite the facts that…
1) The Trump administration has already admitted that a deal is highly UN-likely.
2) The Trump administration has also admitted that the next round of tariffs (25%) will hit in January (meaning no deal by then).
3) The US and China have yet to reach ANY kind of remote agreement on anything. Indeed, they don’t even appear to be openly negotiating at the moment.
4) Large-scale trade deals that resolve decades-old structural issues between the two largest economies in the world do NOT get resolved by a 1-on-1 face to face meeting that lasts a few hours.
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Sunday, November 04, 2018
The USMCA Quest for ‘America First' World Trade / Politics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
The era of post-1945 multilateralism is fading. After the revised NAFTA, Trump's dream is U.S.-dominated world trade and the ‘America First’ Asian Century, says Dan Steinbock. President Trump seeks to redefine all major free trade agreements on the basis of U.S. economic and geopolitical leverage.
In these efforts, the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) is likely to serve as a blueprint.
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Friday, October 26, 2018
The USMCA Quest for ‘America First' World Trade / Politics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
The era of post-1945 multilateralism is fading. After the revised NAFTA, Trump's dream is U.S.-dominated world trade and the ‘America First’ Asian Century, says Dan Steinbock.President Trump seeks to redefine all major free trade agreements on the basis of U.S. economic and geopolitical leverage.
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Friday, October 12, 2018
Trump’s Tariffs Echo US Trade Policy That Led to the Great Depression / Economics / Protectionism
By: John_Mauldin
We all wonder if Trump’s trade actions are as random as they appear or if there is a broader strategy.Some of my contacts argue that the relatively strong US economy allows the administration to take a harder line than would normally be advisable. We can ride out a trade war better than China can, the thinking goes.
This only works if the US economy keeps prospering long enough for the tariffs to make China bend.
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
The First Casualty of Trade War Is Truth / Politics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
As Trump tariffs continue to spread, an ideological war of words is redressing harsh protectionist realities. What is the state of Chinese growth amid the US tariffs? And what is the impact of the trade wars on global economic prospects?Recently, US academic Yasheng Huang argued on Wall Street Journal that “Jack Ma is retiring. Is China’s economy losing steam?” By the same logic, Elon Musk’s forced resignation from Tesla would mean US slowdown.
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Thursday, October 04, 2018
How A Global Trade War Would Derail Economic Recovery Worldwide / Economics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the international community is becoming more aware of the threat the U.S.-Sino trade war poses to global growth, what was originally a bilateral tariff conflict is spreading across regions.During a press conference on September 26, President Donald Trump disclosed why he believes China, despite the U.S. tariff wars, respects him – because of his “very, very large brain.”
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Saturday, September 22, 2018
The Trade War With China Could Last A While / Economics / Protectionism
By: Harry_Dent
I agree with him!The richest man in China, Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma, reckons the trade war is the beginning of a long-term battle for supremacy between China and the U.S.
He’s sees no effective short-term solution to this big global issue.
China needs to strengthen its economy to fulfill its long-term shift to stronger domestic consumption while focusing on the real global growth markets in Southeast Asia, India, and Africa.
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Thursday, September 13, 2018
The Four Steel Men Behind Trump’s Trade War / Economics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
In few months, the Trump administration has undermined more than seven decades of U.S. free trade legacies. Who are the policymakers behind this reversal. Wat is their agenda? And why is steel their common denominator?Recently, the Trump administration hammered a revised North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) by pressuring Mexico and then strong-arming Canada to the tentative deal. The White House’s objective is either to redefine the terms on the basis of U.S. economic leverage and unipolar geopolitics or - if that is not acceptable to other parties - to withdraw the U.S. from such FTAs. It is not “either you are with us or against us,” as in the Bush years, but “America First - or nothing.”
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Thursday, September 13, 2018
How Trump Tariffs Could Double America’s Trade Losses / Economics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
Trump tariffs are based on flawed doctrines, which could penalize the US as much as its trade deficits. Last Friday, President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on $267 billion in Chinese goods, on top of the additional $200 billion that he said will likely be hit with import taxes in a matter of days.
If the tariff stakes will increase up to $500 billion, it could penalize Chinese GDP by 1%, but the US GDP, which is relatively more vulnerable, would suffer a net impact of 2% of GDP. In dollar terms, the consequent tariff damage could prove even higher than the current U.S. trade deficit with China and thus double the damage.
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Monday, September 03, 2018
Toward ‘America First’ NAFTA / Politics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite the Trump administration’s frantic last-minute efforts to hammer the NAFTA agreement, the attempt failed within the US timeline, so the talks continue. Why is the revised deal so important to the White House? Last Friday, the trade talks between the United States and Canada broke off without an agreement.
The negotiations on the revised North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) are not over, however. The talks continue and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will meet again Canada’s foreign minister Chrystia Freeland.
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Wednesday, August 22, 2018
TRADING THE GLOBAL FUTURE - Bad Timing / Economics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
This is the first of a three-part series.
In less than two years, the Trump administration has undermined more than seven decades of U.S. free trade legacies. That is both a reflection of and a catalyst for the further erosion of globalization.
Yet, these trade wars did not come out of the blue. The path to the tariff wars is becoming increasingly difficult to reverse or slow down, and the timing of the trade war could not be worse. It is taking place at a historical moment when global economic integration could further stagnate or even fall apart.
Wednesday, August 22, 2018
How US Trade War Is Spreading from Goods to Services / Economics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
Trump tariff wars are entering a new, far more dangerous phase. As the White House is expanding its tariff wars, collateral damage is about to spread from goods to services – much of it in the U.S.After months of trade threats, the Trump administration announced its 25% tariff on $34 billion of Chinese imports effective in early July, while threatening levies on another $16 billion of imports. To defend its sovereign interest, China responded with 25% tariffs on $34 billion of US imports and recently imposed an additional tariff of 25% on $16 billion of US imports effective on August 23.
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Monday, August 20, 2018
Surviving a Trade War in the Age of Trump and Brexit / Stock-Markets / Protectionism
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
President Donald Trump keeps surprising the world about this policies. The stance that the US took for years is now changing under his administration. Countries that used to be allies of the United States are now seemingly considered enemies. He has launched trade wars against Canada, China, and even the EU.
Brexit is another problem that has a global impact. There is no final decision yet on how Brexit will happen, and what terms the EU and the UK will agree. These significant global changes have impacted a lot of business owners, especially those who are just starting out.
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Tuesday, August 07, 2018
Trade War! Win the Economic Hostilities Against the Chinese / Politics / Protectionism
By: BATR
The establishment culture indoctrinates the public with the mythical virtues of 'Free Trade', while omitting the destructive record of the globalist economy that has ruined American prosperity. Prosperity is not defined as cheap consumer items. Economic success that creates wealth and achieves affluence requires that a society can reach a lasting production capacity to fill ongoing demands, primarily from domestic output. Trade as long as it attains a positive balance of payment result is fine. However, when a country continues to bleed money to purchase goods that were previously produced domestically, the economic treasure of the importing country sinks into the quicksand of a quagmire.
Friday, July 27, 2018
Tariffs, Barriers and Subsidies / Stock-Markets / Protectionism
By: Raul_I_Meijer
There’s not a shade of a doubt that I’m not an expert on tariffs, trade barriers and subsidies, and I’d be the last to suggest any such thing. But I can read. Still, do correct me if I’m wrong anywhere. The whole field is so complicated -no doubt often on purpose- that there’s always the possibility that there are side issues involved for which one would need to actually be an expert.
But still. Now that EU chief Jean-Claude -‘When it becomes serious, you have to lie’- Juncker is due to arrive at the White House soon, I looked at some of the items involved. Last night Trump said that all tariffs, barriers and subsidies should be dropped between the EU and US. Why the TTiP doesn’t come anywhere close to that is anyone’s guess. Too complicated for the boys and girls?
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Thursday, July 26, 2018
Will China End U.S. Trade War With Nuclear Financial Option / Politics / Protectionism
By: Chris_Marcus
One of the reasons why it has seemed so bizarre that the United States would engage in a trade war with its largest creditor in China, is that China has a move that the United States simply can't defend against.
In terms of any sort of engagement between the United States and China, for at least the last decade or so, it's always seemed to me that China has an incredibly large amount of leverage over the United States. To the degree that if push comes to shove, China has available actions that the U.S. simply has no answer to.
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Friday, July 13, 2018
Tariffs “Trump” Tax Cuts / Politics / Protectionism
By: Michael_Pento
China appears to have more to lose from a trade war with the US simply because the math behind surpluses and deficits renders the Bubble Blowers in Beijing at a big disadvantage. When you get right down to the nuclear option in a trade war, Trump could impose tariffs on all of the $505 billion worth of Chinese exported goods, while Premier Xi can only impose a duty on $129 billion worth of US exported goods--judging by the announcement on July 10thh of additional tariffs on $200 billion more of China’s exports to the US we are well underway towards that end. However, this doesn’t mean China completely runs out of ammunition to fight the battle once it hits that limit.
Thursday, July 12, 2018
The Rise and Fall of Global Trade – Redux / Politics / Protectionism
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Ilargi: Someone linked to this almost 8 year old article from Nicole (July 19 2010), on Twitter. And yes, it’s even more relevant now than it was when she wrote it. So here’s a re-run:
… the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 in the US, which drastically raised tariffs on imports, lead to retaliation by trading partners, and the resulting trade war dropped global trade by 66% between 1929 and 1934.
One more comment from me: Trump may be on to something with some of his tariff actions, but he risks having the US run headfirst into the brittleness of just-in-time supply lines.
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Tuesday, July 10, 2018
As Trade Wars Broaden, Europe Is the Key to Future / Politics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the Trump White House has started the “biggest trade war” in history, diplomatic activity is escalating from the transatlantic axis to China and the EU – America’s next tariff target. After the meeting of China and Central and East European (CEE) countries in Sofia, Bulgaria, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang rushed to the fifth round of intergovernmental consultations between China and Germany.
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