Category: Gold and Silver 2014
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Monday, January 05, 2015
Gold Price Was Up 73% Last Year! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Dmitry sipped his coffee drink at his favorite café in Moscow, flipping through the newspaper in front of him. It was full of bad news: currency troubles, ongoing sanctions from the West, rising inflation, and more.
But he ignored all that. He turned to the investment section and began to scan the page, looking for the latest price of one specific investment. He went past the headline that screamed Russia’s inflation rate was up to 11.4% last year, as well as the article detailing the ruble’s debilitating 46.5% fall. He knew all those things and had experienced them firsthand.
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Wednesday, December 31, 2014
Gold Beat All Other World Currencies in 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
"Gold is money. Everything else is credit."~ J.P. Morgan in 1912
Loyal readers of our Investor Alert and my blog Frank Talk are no doubt aware that the U.S. dollar's rising strength has put pressure on commodities such as oil and gold. I wrote about this as recently as my roundup of the top commodities stories of 2014, which you can read here.
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Thursday, December 25, 2014
The Gold Price Target... Merry Christmas / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
I have a busy night ahead but I just wanted to post a few long term charts to show you the relative nature of a chart pattern. I know most of you know that the bigger the consolidation or reversal pattern the bigger move to expect. If one is looking at a minute chart and see’s a triangle the move is relative to that time frame. On the other end of the spectrum when you see a big reversal pattern, that takes a year or longer to complete, then you know the move is not going to be a flash in the pan. When looking at a big impulse move from the monthly perspective I like to use the black and white candlesticks that will general confirm the impulse move your are expecting or are currently in.
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Thursday, December 25, 2014
Gold and Silver Unworthy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The New York and London gold and silver markets have gone into an interesting state, wherein much is claimed, but little is ever allowed to leave.
New York and London ought not to be permitted to set prices for the world using the power of the United States Dollar.
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Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Crude Oil, US National Debt, and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Examine the following chart of monthly crude oil prices. In the past 26 years crude oil prices have crashed 65%, 59%, 54%, and 76%. The current crash is about 51% so far.
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Monday, December 22, 2014
Gold Prices After The End of QE / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The performance of gold obviously depends on the U.S. economic condition and the Fed's future actions. In the short run, the end of QE3 will most likely not change anything and gold will most likely decline on a dollar rally. It is likely to last as long the U.S. central bank credibility is at all-time heights. This is because gold can be seen as the reciprocal of central bank credibility. Thus, when central bank credibility is at a peak, gold is in the dumps. The end of QE3 could even strengthen the belief about the strength of the U.S. economy. After all, Fed would not halt the quantitative easing if the economy was not strong, right? Just look at the economic numbers, say the pundits. Unemployment went down, while GDP grew faster than expected in the third quarter, and oil is historically cheap, which will additionally boost the U.S. economy.
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Saturday, December 20, 2014
Bullish Reversal in Gold Miners but Metals Remain in Question / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The gold and silver stocks have put in a bullish weekly reversal but Gold and Silver have not confirmed it. The interplay between the metals and the shares has been complicated in recent weeks. Hopefully this missive will make some sense of it as the two groups are sending mixed signals.
Gold and Silver are charted below in weekly candle format. Before this week the metals looked bullish. Each tested support and rebounded strongly towards resistance. However, both metals gave back much of the recent gains. Bulls would say they are correcting and still in position to test resistance. Bears would say the metals failed to reach resistance and are headed to new lows.
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Friday, December 19, 2014
Gold and Silver Relative Calm in Wild Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
This week has been extremely volatile for oil, currencies and stock markets. Against this background gold and silver have drifted sideways to slightly lower, which given the dollar's strong performance is almost a positive result.
Along with a collapsing oil price on Monday and Tuesday, the Russian ruble fell from 58 to the USD on Monday to 77 the following day. It was clear that Russian oligarchs were getting out of rubles as fast as they could, hence the steep fall. By yesterday things had calmed down and the ruble was back to the 60.4 this morning. There was a slight frisson of excitement over the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, to be followed by Quadruple Witching today. Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock options all expire on the third Friday of December. The result is the Dow 30 Index rose by 4.3% between Tuesday's opening and last night's close on an enormous bear squeeze.
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Thursday, December 18, 2014
Gold Price Building Foundations For Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold has been steadily trending up since its early November low. The Swiss gold vote was expected so it was no surprise to see price turn back up after the initial dip in price. I still believe gold is on the cusp of a much greater rally so let's see where things currently stand.
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Thursday, December 18, 2014
The Price Of Gold And The Art Of War / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by
Sun Tzu, The Art of War, fifth century BC
When growth slows in capital markets, the bankers’ daisy-chain of credit and debt breaks down; setting in motion defaulting debt which ends in recession, deflation or, in extreme cases, a deflationary depression.
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Thursday, December 18, 2014
U.S. Gold Production Declined 7% During First 9 Months of 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
I have long argued that gold would bottom around the all-in cost of production and this would provide price support. This is because as the price drops below the cost to produce, miners will be forced to shut down or suspend operations. This reduces supply and lower supply is supportive of prices, assuming demand remains relatively stable. We are finally starting to see signs that gold supplies are declining.
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Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Gold Roubles - This Is What Gold Does In a Currency Crisis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
To say that gold is in a bear market is to misunderstand both gold and markets. Gold isn't an investment that goes up and down. It is money in the most basic store-of-value sense. Most of the time it just sits there, and when its price changes in local currency terms that says more about the local currency than about gold.
But when currencies collapse, gold shines.
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Monday, December 15, 2014
Silver Price Bottom? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Silver broke out of its 5-month downtrend last week as expected, but, as with gold, the move was unfortunately not confirmed by action in stocks, which have continued to drift lower. When this fact is combined with the ramping of Commercial short and Large Spec long positions over the past couple of weeks, it starts to look like this breakout was false. Certainly a reaction is looking a lot more likely now.
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Monday, December 15, 2014
Gold Price Base Building Bullish Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
If we lived in a normal word of fiscal propriety, the falling oil price would be viewed as something to celebrate, as it reduces costs across the board, and should theoretically boost the economy, but we live in an abnormal debt-wracked world where instead fears are surfacing that the plunging oil price will trigger a series of cascading loan defaults that have the potential to collapse the system - already world stockmarkets are buckling. If things really start to unravel it should provide the perfect excuse to bring in global coordinated QE, which we have been moving towards over the past few years, albeit on an ad hoc basis, whose underlying purpose will be to maintain interest rates at zero to stop the system collapsing, and to push the bill for the mess onto the little guy, whose standard of living will be progressively eroded by QE engendered inflation. At what point will they ride to the rescue with their global QE program? - that is a matter of conjecture, but we can presume that they will wait until things get sufficiently bad that people are starting to clamor for it so that it becomes politically acceptable and they can get away with it.
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Monday, December 15, 2014
Silver Eagle Coin Sales Very Robust - Record High For Second Consecutive Year / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Silver bullion demand remains very robust as silver stackers continue to stack. 2014 has been another record-breaking year at the U.S. Mint which has sold 43.3 million silver eagle coins – up from 42.7 million coins last year.
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Monday, December 15, 2014
Gold - The Weight of Time as Trend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
George R Harrison writes: We’ve all felt it. The ‘weight’ of time acting as Trends in the markets.
Trends that hold longer than expected and whose change in direction appears when we least expect or believe it.
Once time accumulates for an action and establishes a Trend, those trends take a lot of work to change.
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Sunday, December 14, 2014
Gold and Silver Dreaming of a White Christmas / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Stocks continued lower, putting in their worst week since May 2012.
Oil cracked into the $50's. We paid 2.25 per gallon for regular gasoline yesterday. Supply has been healthy, but demand has been off. So this is a mixed bag. We need to keep an eye on retail sales and wages.
I have a suspicion that a lot of the stock selling is part of an end of year portfolio cleansing. We will know more if we see how it goes next week.
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Saturday, December 13, 2014
Gold And Silver - Wall Street, aka United States, Pulls Off Another Destructive Coup / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The clichéd definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
There is no room for sanity in the United States, anymore, and the public is sleepwalking through it all. Arguably, this has been carefully orchestrated by the elites over the past century, as in 100 years and not just in the past decade or so. Capitalism is dead in the US, and has been for decades. Ironically, China and Russia are far more capitalistic. Once the elites took over the money supply, with the passage of the Federal Reserve Act in 1913, there was a concerted effort to take over all media and start a propaganda scheme that is far superior than any other country in effective population control.
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Saturday, December 13, 2014
Gold and Silver Starting to Show Bullish Signs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
We've believed that Gold would need to break $1100 before we thought a bottom could start to develop. While that could still be the case, we are starting to see building evidence that precious metals could be forming a bottom.
In the past we've written about the importance of Gold's performance against other asset classes. Relative strength in Gold has preceded important bottoms in the Gold price during 2001, 2005 and 2008. That relative strength is starting to show. Below we plot Gold against various asset classes, which are noted in the chart. Several days ago Gold against foreign currencies (and the Euro) closed at a 15-month high. Gold has also moved to a 13-month high against Commodities. Also Gold may have bottomed against global equities as it has held support three times in 2014. Gold is weak only against the S&P 500.
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Friday, December 12, 2014
Gold Was The Safe Haven This Week / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
This week precious metals continued their recovery, with gold up $35 at $1220 and silver up about $1 at $17 this morning, thus building on the improved trend since gold bottomed nearly $90 lower at $1132 on 7 November.
Gold seems to be finding support at the 50-day moving average (MA), which currently stands at $1198 and now rising. The 200-day MA is at $1246, which suggests supply at this level could cap the rise for the moment: these levels matter to technical traders. On Comex there is evidence of some buying of gold futures, as opposed to bear closing, which is reflected in the rise in net contracts for the managed Money category shown in the chart below.
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