Category: Gold and Silver 2018
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, July 27, 2018
Supposedly Bullish Gold’s CoT Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
At first sight, yesterday’s session was quite boring – gold ended the session practically unchanged while silver and mining stocks were only a little higher. The USD Index was practically unchanged. But just because nothing happened in the market in terms of the daily closing prices, it doesn’t mean that we don’t have anything interesting to discuss. We do. There is a boomerang topic that just came back once again – the Commitment of Traders report for gold seems to be favoring higher gold prices as the current readings were seen at previous local bottoms. Are we going to see a CoT-driven rally shortly?
Tuesday, July 24, 2018
Gold & Silver Need THIS to Unfold before They Rally Sharply Higher... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Greg Weldon, CEO and president of Weldon Financial. Greg has over three decades of market research and trading experience, specializing in the metals and commodity markets, and his close connection with the metals led him to author a book back in 2006, titled Gold Trading Boot Camp, where he accurately predicted the implosion of the U.S. credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce.
He's a regular presenter at financial conferences throughout the country, and is a highly sought-after guest on many financial shows. And it's always great to have him on the Money Metals Podcast. Greg, good to talk to you again. Welcome back.
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Sunday, July 22, 2018
You Buy the Fear in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
This article does not speak to gold’s proper fundamentals, which are not yet very healthy (although some positive signs are finally gathering). For the proper counter-cyclical atmosphere to engage gold bulls would need have risk ‘on’ markets and assets crack. Yet, gold’s (and silver’s) price may well bottom before readily obvious fundamental improvement is apparent to a majority (as was the case in Q1 2016).
Far too much analysis is put out there linking gold with inflation. It is true that gold often acts as an effective inflation hedge, but it all too often fails in that capacity.
Far too much analysis is put out there linking gold with war, terror, pestilence and other conditions of human suffering. The surest way to spot a gold promoter, if he is not pumping inflation, is his pitch for gold as a disaster hedge. Yes okay, and I have a little Unibomber shack in Montana to sell you too.
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Thursday, July 19, 2018
Gold Market Signal vs. Noise / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
In his book Nobody Knows Anything, my friend Bob Moriarty wrote about the difference between signal and noise. Unfortunately, much of the information in the gold space or what passes for such is really noise. Conspiracy theories around manipulation, price suppression and China are all too popular while important factors like real interest rates, investment demand and gold’s relationship to equities are neglected. At present the Gold market has experienced a critical breakdown yet in some circles a new theory and explanation is gaining traction.
Thursday, July 19, 2018
Don’t Get Too Bullish on Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Gold has been getting crushed recently, and now sits near several support levels.
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Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Gold And The Elusive Chase For Profits / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Kelsey_Williams
Between the years 1971 and 2011, the price of gold went from $42.00 per ounce to $1900.00 per ounce – a forty-five fold increase. This is depicted on the chart below…
Looking at the chart, it would appear that gold is in a long-term bull market and that continually higher prices over time can be expected. Proponents of this approach to gold cite fundamentals such as a weakening U.S. dollar, social unrest, wars (combat and trade), political instability, etc.
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Monday, July 16, 2018
How Crazy It Is to Short Gold with RSI Close to 30 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Aiming to make money on gold price’s decline is always controversial. The long-term fundamentals remain favorable and gold and silver are likely to exceed their previous highs in the coming years. True, but that doesn’t mean that both metals can’t move even lower in the next several weeks or even months. Different factors govern more short-term-oriented trades as markets are emotional, not logical in the near term.
One of the popular techniques that is used to detect good entry and exit prices for gold is the RSI indicator and the most popular way to use it is to buy when RSI moves to 30 and sell when RSI reaches 70.
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Monday, July 16, 2018
Gold Bears Are Roaring Louder / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun.
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Friday, July 13, 2018
Gold Standard Requirements & Currency Crisis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The United States has three requirements in returning to the Gold Standard. They will be extremely difficult to achieve. They each serve as essential requirements in a criterion. All three are urgently needed. The challenge is formidable for the nation to remain as a leading player in the global economy. The United States stands alone in volume of national debt. Many place the blame on the social net like welfare, Social Security, and other measures. However, the biggest element is clearly the military budget, hardly for defense in the last two decades. As CEO Jack Ma of Alibaba stated so succinctly, the USGovt has spent $25 trillion on the military with nothing to show for it except decayed infra-structure and global animosity for its aggression. A major item in recent years for the deficits has been Medicare, which is full of fraud and waste. Another major item is the raft of pensions like for government service, judicial service, and military service.
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Is the Relative Strength in Gold Miners to Gold Price Significant? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
It has been a tough spring and summer for precious metals. Gold failed to breakout when it had the chance and it closed the second quarter in ominous and weak fashion. It was the lowest monthly close in more than a year. Silver has performed better but only because it has not declined to the degree Gold has. The one technical positive for the sector is the positive divergence in the miners. They did not make new lows in the second quarter. That is encouraging but only time will tell us how sustainable and significant that might be.
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Gold Breaking Below This Point Could Be Fatal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Harry_Dent
Shortly after gold fell to $1,046 in December 2015, I called for a bear market rally that ranged from $1,375 to $1,428.That low mark of $1,375 has been tested three times since without being able to break above.
That’s not a good sign…
Gold has been steadily down since the third test on April 11th.
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Thursday, July 12, 2018
Gold’s & Silver’s Reversals’ Reversal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In yesterday’s analysis, we discussed how meaningful gold and silver’s pre-market decline was given a relatively small move in the USD Index. The implications were quite bearish for the PM market, especially that we had just seen a target being reached in gold stocks. And because mining stocks had just underperformed gold for the first time in weeks. Yet, before the day was over, the USD, gold and silver had all reversed and erased most of their daily moves. Does it make the outlook bullish again? Is gold still likely to reach $1,300 shortly?
No. The USD Index indeed reversed its course, but the precious metals’ initial reaction shows how vulnerable they are with regard to the rallies in the USD Index. This is not the kind of reaction that one wants to see when keeping a long position. It’s the one that is preferred while holding a short one.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Bullish Gold Markets in the Big Picture? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold markets and sees the potential for a new "bull leg."
Our proprietary cycle indicator is now up.
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Saturday, July 07, 2018
Gold Price Selling Exhausting / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has been afflicted by relentless selling over the past few weeks or so, forcing it to major lows. While summer-doldrums weakness is typical, gold’s recent drop is on the large side even for this time of year. It was fueled by truly-extreme short selling by gold-futures speculators, which is quickly exhausting. That is paving the way for gold’s major autumn rally to start marching higher any day now, a very-bullish omen.
A month ago when gold was still near $1300, I published my latest research on its summer doldrums. The first halves of market summers including Junes and early Julies have long tended to be the weakest times of the year seasonally for gold. They are simply devoid of the recurring seasonal demand surges gold enjoys during most of the rest of the year. With investors not interested in buying, gold languishes.
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Saturday, July 07, 2018
Trump’s Trade Wars Could Spark Global Flight to Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
President Donald Trump’s “America First” trade policies are upending decades of global arrangements and entanglements. Globalists are aghast that the leader of the free world is openly confrontational toward NAFTA, NATO, the European Union, United Nations, and World Trade Organization.
In rebuffing the global community by pursuing unilateral tariffs and vowing to win trade wars against both rivals and putative allies alike, Trump is playing a high stakes game. Trump’s trade wars could test the U.S. dollar’s status as world reserve currency.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
Was That The Gold Price Bottom? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
First published Sun Jul 1 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Dealing with markets is more about psychology than it is about anything else. So, let’s begin this weekend’s analysis with a discussion of the psychology of the metals market.
There has been no trade more frustrating over the last several years than the metals. In fact, if you even remember back in 2015, the low we struck at the end of the year was at the completion of a year-long ending diagonal, which itself caused a great deal of frustration. So, to put this market action into perspective, within the last 42 months, we have spent approximately 32 of those months in overlapping and frustrating structures.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
The End of Quantitative Easing and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
June was hot for the central banks. The Federal Reserve lifted the federal funds rate for the second time this year, while the European Central Bank announced that it would end its bond purchase program by the end of 2018. It would mean another step towards normalization of the crisis-era monetary policy, which would end quantitative easing on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. What do these important developments imply for the gold market?
On June the 13th, the Fed raised interest rates for another 25 basis points. It was the second hike in 2018 and the seventh in this tightening cycle. The move was widely expected, so it did not shake the markets. However, the Fed’s statement was more hawkish than anticipated, as the U.S. central bank suggested two more rate hikes this year.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
Gold And Silver Precious Metals Price Outlook: Buy Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger details his forecast for precious metals markets in the second half of 2018. Given the impressive reversal in gold last Monday, which appeared to occur during the Asian and European trading sessions as opposed to the Crimex pit session, it looks like the precious metals are adhering to the well-broadcasted seasonality trade that has been fraught with random, rather than dependable, trading results, especially in the last four years. 2014 and 2016 had poor second-half performances, while 2015 and 2017 were marginally positive. What is reliable is that gold purchases in July have a greater chance for a successful trading outcome than any other month of the year, assuming, of course, that you took profits when gold popped in one of the following five months.
Wednesday, July 04, 2018
Bearish Sentiment Can Only Take Gold so Far / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Despite its lack of bullish fundamentals and the poor price action, Gold is now technically oversold and has reached strong support with sentiment approaching potentially extreme levels. The conditions are in place for a rally. That being said, bearish sentiment by itself is not enough to push Gold beyond a relief rally.
While the combination of the net speculative position (CoT) and daily sentiment index (DSI) was near its lowest point at the end of 2015, Gold enjoyed its best gains then because its fundamentals turned and remained bullish. Real interest rates declined as the Fed, after its December 2015 hike, did not hike for another 12 months despite a pickup in inflation.
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Tuesday, July 03, 2018
Gold Price Probable Short-term Bounce / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Gold and silver have been getting crushed recently along with emerging market stocks.
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