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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Financial Markets 2018

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Monday, November 12, 2018

3 Triggers That Could Push This Sell-Off into a Financial Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: John_Mauldin

There’s very real possibility the global economy breaks down in the next six months.

Anything could trigger a crisis, and it could well be something no one now foresees. But here are my three candidates.

Corporate Credit Crisis

US companies are way more leveraged now than they were ahead of the 2008 crisis.
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 06, 2018

Financial Markets Are Making Faulty Assumptions about Growth & Resources / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Dr. Chris Martenson of PeakProsperity.com, and author of the book Prosper! How to Prepare for the Future and Create a World Worth Inheriting. Chris is a commentator on a range of important topics such as global economics, financial markets, governmental policy, precious metals and the importance of preparedness among other things. And it's always great to have him with us.

Chris, it's been too long, but welcome back and thanks for joining us again.

Chris Martenson: Hey Mike. Thank you so much. It's great to be back with you.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 21, 2018

SPX/Gold, 30yr Yields & Yield Curve – Amigos 1, 2 & 3 Updated / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

We began the Amigos theme last year in order to be guided by the goofy riders during the ending stages of a cyclical, risk-on phase that was not going to end until the proper macro signals come about, no matter how many times the bears declared victory along the way. The fact that grown adults see conspiracies around every corner (okay, I see them around every third corner myself, but work with me here) makes such macro signaling very necessary in order to keep bias at bay.

To review…

  • Amigo #1 is the SPX/Gold Ratio (more generally, stocks vs. gold) and a counter cyclical and risk ‘off’ environment simply will not engage until stocks top out vs. gold, if even for a cyclical down phase within the up phase.
  • Amigo #2 is the 30yr Treasury Yield and it’s 100 month EMA ‘limiter’, which has supported the funding mechanism (unrestrained credit creation) for the leveraged economy for decades. If the limiter holds yet again, while there could be some deflationary problems the system will persist. If it breaks for the first time in decades well, we are not in Kansas anymore and the door would open up to an inflationary Crack Up Boom (von Mises style).
  • Amigo #3 is the Yield Curve, which is in the late stages of flattening. When it turns up it will either be under pains of deflationary or inflationary pressure. Note the word “pains” because there would be pain, either way; but in different financial and economic areas.
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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Investor Alert: Is the Trump Agenda in Peril? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Is the Trump agenda in peril? It’s a question investors should consider ahead of the mid-term elections.

Up to now, the Trump economic agenda has certainly been great for Wall Street and much of the broader economy. The Dow Jones Industrials continues to defy all naysayers – notching yet another new record high in the first week of October before correcting.

Meanwhile, the latest GDP numbers show the economy growing at its fastest pace in over a decade, with official unemployment at generational lows.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Stock Market Volatility Breeds Contempt / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the stock market volatility of the last week and what it may mean for precious metals.

When asked about the dominant theme for the markets last January, I said that the one thing I looked forward to was a return of "VOLATILITY" as the Federal Reserve Board moved to "normalize" the interest rate structure, now commonly referred to as quantitative tightening. What has actually transpired since then was a brief volatility spike in February during which the UVXY tripled in ten days but other than that, markets screamed higher, hitting new high after new high with annoying complacency and irritating certainty while "VOL" collapsed.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

BREXIT, Italy’s Deficit, The EU Summit And Fomcs Minutes In Focus / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: C_Pissouros

Darius Anucauskas writes: It looks like a busy week, as there is a lot of economic data that is ready to hit the spotlight, together with the political news that are taking centre stage. Brexit negotiations are also in focus, together with the ongoing discussions around Italy’s deficit.

On Monday, the calendar is relatively quiet, apart from US retail sales figures that are set to come out before the US opening bell. The expectations here are that the figures for the core and headline could have increased. The headline number is expected to come out at +0.7%, which is well above the previous +0.1%. The core figure, which excludes automobiles, is forecasted to come out one tenth of percent higher, at +0.4%, against the previous month’s +0.3%. Certainly, better sales figures could have a positive effect on the US dollar, but we doubt that the greenback will show any strong reaction after numbers come out.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Interest Rate Shock-Time to Find Out Who has been Swimming Naked / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Plunger

What Happened?  

Could everything have changed in a 24 hour period?  Apparently, Yes,   Over the span of 24 hours markets woke up and realized that the FED may be at the cusp of committing Policy Error.  Recently bonds have been teetering on the edge and this week Jerome Powell gave bonds a push off the ledge.  Bonds delivered a message and the stock market was listening.  Stocks got derailed along with bonds.

Yields blew out and sucked the air out of the stock market.  So why the big move in bonds?  Two reasons:

  1. Less demand for LT bonds due to the higher cost of hedging caused by higher yields, higher USD and emerging markets dropping.
  2. FED Chair Powell advertising he plans on being very aggressive with rates.  He plans on raising rates until something breaks.
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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 05, 2018

SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

It has been a long while since the last Amigos update because frankly if the characters, images and shticks I invent to portray market status begin to wear on me sometimes I have to believe they may do the same to you. Consider that the 3 Amigos, SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Yields and the Yield Curve are slow movers that we usually view from monthly chart perspectives and well, sometimes you need to take a break and just let them do their thing over time.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 27, 2018

US & Global Markets Internals / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

To celebrate NFTRH’s 10 year anniversary (Friday, Sept. 28) I’d like to present one segment from this week’s report, NFTRH 518 each day until Friday. These excerpts will give you an idea of what it takes to provide a top tier, best of breed product. But there is much more to a single weekly report than will be shown here publicly. Oh and don’t forget the dynamic in-week market updates as events dictate.

All for 30% less per day than you spend on your single cup of small regular coffee at Dunkin Donuts! Think about that. I mean, I don’t want to downplay the importance of coffee – it makes NFTRH run – but what is the value of consistent, focused and proven market intelligence at your fingertips day to day, week to week and year after year?

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

The Post Bubble Market Contraction Thesis Receives Validation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Plunger

In the last two reports I developed the thesis that we are in the early stages of a post bubble contraction (PBC).  This contraction actually began in 2008 and is now reasserting itself in the form of a global liquidity crisis (GLC). In this edition I show how this thesis just received mainstream validation and it’s now time to begin developing an investment strategy.

The FED and central banks responded to the 2008 crisis by lowering rates to zero or less and injected trillions of credit into the system.  Indeed, they were able to re-inflate the pre-crisis bubble and put the contraction on hold, but only at the price of corrupting the core of money and credit itself and their actions exasperated the gap between the haves and the have nots.  QE in the end turned out simply to be monetary policy for the rich. The  result has been to start a world wide populist movement causing outside political contenders to win elections.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, September 23, 2018

US and Global Stocks, Commodities, Precious Metals and the ‘Anti-USD’ Trade / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

The most recent leg of the US stock market rally and the bounces in global equities, commodities and precious metals are coming as part of an “anti-USD trade”. Certain US stock sectors, most global stock markets, commodities and precious metals were pressured by the USD rally that began in April and now, as the buck eases, a relief valve opens.

All charts below are as of Thursday’s close.

US – S&P 500

The S&P 500 – in essence a collection of sectors that are ‘pro’, ‘anti’ and ‘neutral’ the USD’s status – appears to be on the way to our target of 3000+, based on a conservative measurement of its daily chart pattern. This was the NFTRH alternate scenario after our expected summer drive to test the January top did not prove out a then favored view that the test would fail. As you can see, SPX broke out, dropped to test the breakout and off it goes. We have since been operating to the new favored plan.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

US Dollar Head & Shoulders Triggered. What's Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX made its final high yesterday afternoon. The top-to-top time was 12.9 days, fitting my thesis that the impulsive decline and retracement fits in Cyclical time. This morning’s futures are lower, indicating that a new impulse may be underway, although it may remain shallow for the better part of the day. There is a potential Head & Shoulders formation that, when triggered, may send the SPX beneath its smaller Broadening Wedge.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 04, 2018

Financial Crisis 10 Years Later – No Lessons Learned / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: James_Quinn

“A variety of investors provided capital to financial companies, with which they made irresponsible loans and took excessive risks. These activities resulted in real losses, which have largely wiped out the shareholder equity of the companies. But behind that shareholder equity is bondholder money, and so much of it that neither depositors of the institution nor the public ever need to take a penny of losses. Citigroup, for example, has $2 trillion in assets, but also has $600 billion owed to its own bondholders. From an ethical perspective, the lenders who took the risk to finance the activities of these companies are the ones that should directly bear the cost of the losses.”John Hussman – May 2009

This month marks the 10th anniversary of the Wall Street/Fed/Treasury created financial disaster of 2008/2009. What should have happened was an orderly liquidation of the criminal Wall Street banks who committed the greatest control fraud in world history and the disposition of their good assets to non-criminal banks who did not recklessly leverage their assets by 30 to 1, while fraudulently issuing worthless loans to deadbeats and criminals. But we know that did not happen.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Here Are Top Market Predictions from Camp Kotok / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: John_Mauldin

I’m back from Camp Kotok. As always, it was both rejuvenating and enlightening.

This year, I quickly sensed a more upbeat mood. There were not that many that were wildly bullish, but most were positive or at least neutral. There weren’t nearly as many bears as I expected. “Cautious optimism” seemed to be the theme.

That led me to refine my own views with a wide variety of participants. Today, I’ll do the same for you.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 27, 2018

What’s Next for Stocks When the Yield Curve Inverts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Even though the 10 year – 3 month yield curve is the more useful & timely yield curve, the 10 year – 2 year yield curve is still the most popular yield curve. The 10 year – 2 year curve is almost inverted.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 26, 2018

How The Credit Market Is Doing in 2018 / Interest-Rates / Financial Markets 2018

By: Dylan_Moran

The credit market is one of the most significant markers of the global economy, to that point that many investors call it a figurative “canary in the mine.” In other words, when the credit market struggles, it means the rest of the economy is about to struggle as well.

Since the performance of the credit market can be a helpful guide in helping determining the health of other aspects of the economy, it's important to understand what it is--and how it's doing. To learn more about how the credit market is doing now, let's take a closer look at what the credit market is and how it is doing in 2018.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, August 25, 2018

Financial Markets Status: Precious Metals, Commodities, US & Global Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

A general review of the current status across different asset markets. This is not comprehensive, forward-looking analysis as per NFTRH, but it is an up to the minute summary (as of Friday afternoon).

Precious Metals

Gold, silver and gold stock indexes/ETFs made what I had thought were bear flags yesterday, but today’s reversal painted them as short-term bounce patterns (‘W’ with a higher low in the miners and silver).

This chart of gold (courtesy of Barchart.com) shows a flag breakdown, whipsaw and new closing high for the short-term move. As we’ve noted for weeks now, the Commitments of Traders (CoT) is in a contrary bullish alignment with large Specs all but wrung out of the market (they were fleeced again; don’t believe hype about their increased shorting being some sort of conspiracy). All in all, not bad for the relic. The bounce lives on.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, August 25, 2018

Trade War to Continue, Global Debt Default & Higher Interest Rates Unavoidable / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we’ll hear from Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies and author of the book The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. Michael describes two scenarios for the Fed that may BOTH result in a day of reckoning for the U.S. stock market, explains why he sees no end to the trade wars for at least several months, and also tells us what it will take to the get metals moving to the upside again. Don’t miss a jam-packed and terrific interview with Michael Pento, coming up after this week’s market update.

Well, gold and silver markets have been attempting a recovery rally this week, and this morning, they have gotten a little help from a weaker dollar.

The gold market traded above the $1,200 level a couple times this week, and as of this Friday recording, gold prices come in at $1,207 an ounce -- up 1.9% for the week now thanks to a rally this morning. Meanwhile, silver has bounced up and down, but has made no real progress in the past week, trading at $14.87 as of this Friday morning recording, rallying today like gold but flat for the week overall.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 17, 2018

SPX Losing Gains / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures are losing yesterday’s gains as selling in the world markets returns. The index appears to be challenging Short-term support at 2835.51 at this time. This morning the SPX E-mini futures and options expire at the open. It is unusual to see the selling begin before expiration. As a result, this may cause more selling for the regular options that expire later today.

ZeroHedge reports, “A sense of "risk off" has returned to the the market, with 10Y yields sliding, the dollar rebounding from session lows and the Turkish Lira resuming its plunge, renewing concerns about emerging market contagion, leading to a "red return" across global market monitors, following yesterday's torrid surge in the S&P500.”

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 12, 2018

USD is Rising. What this Means for Currencies and Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market has had a quiet week. However, the story is very different overseas, with emerging market currencies and stocks cratering.

Here’s MSCI’s emerging markets currency index.

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