Category: Gold & Silver 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, September 24, 2019
The Repo Liquidity Crunch Reveals Market Stress. Will Gold Shine? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Last week, the Fed had to inject liquidity into the repo market for the first time since the Great Recession. Not once, but several times – and also commit to do more. Will such a crack in the proverbial dam let gold’s allure shine?
Scramble for Liquidity Pushes Rates Up
The focus last week was on the FOMC decision to cut interest rates. But a real drama was unfolding in the background. The Fed injected $278 billion into the securities repurchase, or “repo,” market over four days, to stabilize short-term interest rates and to calm the repo market scrambling for liquidity. More precisely, the U.S. central bank injected $53 billion in overnight repurchase agreement on Tuesday, followed by $75 billion re-open on Wednesday, then on Thursday and on Friday as well.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Is Silver About To Become The Super-Hero Of Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you’ve been following our research, you already know how accurately we’ve been nailing the precious metals price moves. We’ve been calling Gold and Silver accurately since early 2018 and continue to focus a good portion of our efforts in studying these incredible setups. Let’s have a little fun and start with two charts from near July 20, 2019, to help our followers understand what we’ve been expecting, but first, be sure to opt-in to our free market research newsletter
This first Monthly Silver chart highlights what we believed would be the approximate wave structure of the silver price advance going forward. We did not attempt to accurately time these peaks of valleys, we simply used our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs to allow price to tell us where these peaks may form. From those levels, we used our best “guess” to identify the trough bottoms.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Surprising Advantages Of Investing In Gold, A 50 Year Historical Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Dan_Amerman
One of the most common reasons to buy gold is to use it as a stable store of value. This analysis uses 50 years of history to test that common belief, and finds it woefully lacking - for it misses the best parts of investing in gold.
The graph below will be developed, and we will show that gold is instead a more sophisticated (and desirable) investment than most people realize. When properly understood, gold can deliver unique advantages to knowledgeable investors, and it can be put to much better uses than just acting as a mere stable store of value.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 23, 2019
Silver and the Yield Curve Inversion / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Hubert_Moolman
Yield curve inversions have historically been great for silver prices. Currently we are experiencing such a phenomena, and again it is evidence of conditions that are conducive to some impressive silver rallies.
Below, is a long-term chart showing the spread between the 10-year Treasure Note Yield and the 3-month Treasury Bill Rate.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 21, 2019
Gold Leads, Will the Rest Follow? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Fund manager Matt Geiger provides his overview of the resource market and shares some principles he is using to invest in today's market. The natural resource landscape has shifted dramatically since the end of 2018. At the time, we were still nursing our wounds from an unexpectedly vicious 2018 and hoping to avoid a repeat performance in 2019. I did speculate that "we may have already exited the bear market as of late December 2018. The nickel price is up roughly 25% YTD, the gold price is up roughly 10% since early December, the TSXV is up 15% since mid-December, and the MJG partnership itself was up 20.5% in January alone."
In hindsight, it looks like we did indeed exit the bear market as of late December 2018. The nickel price is now up 54% YTD. The price of gold is now up 25% since earlier December. The MJG partnership was up 42% in the first half of the year. The major diversified miners have hit 52-week highs within the past 60 days. The major precious metal royalty names have hit either multi-year or all-time highs recently. The same applies to the GDX and GDXJ. These are the types of moves you'd expect to see in a mining bull market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 20, 2019
Gold among Negative-Yielding Bonds / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The amount of global debt with negative yields soared to $16 trillion, or more than 25 percent of the market. This number has nearly tripled since October 2018. In July, even the 30-year German government bonds went negative for the first time ever, while Nordea Bank, a leading Danish bank, said it will begin offering 20-year fixed-rate mortgages with zero interest, as well as 30-year mortgages at minus 0.5 percent. Isn’t this economic madness? And what does it imply for the gold market?
Normally, instead of spending it themselves, lenders offer the borrowers money, in return receiving the promise of being paid back, and interest. Negative bond yields seem to turn the credit relations upside down. But after closer examination, it turns out that the negative yields do not necessarily deny the laws of economics. The key to understand it is grasping that negative yield to maturity does not mean negative coupon payments. Negative yields imply losses for investors who purchase these bonds and hold them until maturity, not for all bond investors.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 20, 2019
Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Just as we predicted, precious metals are setting up another extended momentum base/bottom that appears to be aligning with our prediction of an early October 2019 new upside price leg.
Recent news of the US Fed decreasing the Fed Funds Rate by 25bp as well as strength in the US stock market and US Dollar as eased fears and concerns across the global markets. These concerns and fears are still very real as the overnight credit market has continue to illustrate. Yet, the precious metals have retraced from recent highs and begun to form a momentum base which will likely become the floor for the next move higher.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 19, 2019
Fed Cuts Interest Rates and Gold Drops. Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
History may not repeat itself to the letter but it certainly rhymes. That’s what the Fed watchers would say now. The Fed cut the interest rates for the second time this year and the price of gold declined again. What is going on?
Fed Trims Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points
Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on September 17-18th. In line with expectations, the U.S. central bank cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, for the second time this year:
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 19, 2019
Silver Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2/2 of my Silver Price 2019 trend forecast update - Part1 - Silver Price Tragets for 2019 - Forecast Update
So the Silver big question for 2019 is will the price be capped at resistance at $21 or like the Gold price breakout of its 5 year trading range to target the next resistance area of $25.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 18, 2019
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
I am simply amazed at how much email I have been getting asking my opinion regarding the latest “manipulation” cases. And, many of those are asking me if I am finally convinced that the metals market was manipulated to drop from 2011 to 2015.
Well, let’s try to walk through the issues together.
Let’s start this article by identifying that about which we are speaking. You see, the great majority of those who read these manipulation cases believe that the manipulation addressed in these cases is what caused the metals market to drop from 2011 to 2015, and what caused a 70% cut in the price of silver. So, if you have clicked on this article to read me changing my position regarding that type of “manipulation,” you will be quite disappointed. And, if you actually believe in that perspective, I suggest you read on with an open mind, as you will see why you are 100% wrong in that belief.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 18, 2019
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Monday’s spike in crude oil prices could be a game changer – for geopolitics, for the economy, and for investors.
Normally it would be foolhardy to draw big, sweeping conclusions from a single day’s trading activity.
But in this case, it’s not just the fact that oil prices surged 13% to over $62/barrel. Or even the fact that more than 5% of the world’s oil producing capacity suddenly got taken offline.
Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Gold has been on a tear lately. This has lead to many of you asking me why the precious metal is breaking out and if this is the start of the next bull market.
Gold is rallying primarily due to central bank issuing forward guidance. What I mean by this is that globally central banks have made it clear that they are going to be cutting rates and launching new QE programs going forward.
This is resulting in bonds around the world rallying to the point of having NEGATIVE yields. What this means is that the person lending the money is PAYING the person borrowing the money for the right to lend!
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
On the weekend, there was a drone attack against the world’s largest oil processing facility and a major oilfield in Saudi Arabia. Oil prices have predictably spiked, but how will this geopolitical shock affect the gold market in the days ahead?
What Happened?
On Saturday, the drone bombings struck the Abqaiq oil-processing plant and the Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia. Both are important facilities operated by Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer. Nobody was injured, but the strikes triggered large fires, disrupting the global oil supply.
The Houthis, the Iran-backed rebel army that has been fighting a Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen, claimed responsibility for the attack. However, for some people the sophistication of the attacks is the reason to believe that Iran is the one truly responsible.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 16, 2019
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger uses storytelling and personal experience to unpack the myths and machinations behind the precious metals and financial markets. "Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper." —Ayn Rand
Why don't we start things off a tad differently this evening? Let me relate to you all a parable from the Book of Quantitative Easing where all is good and noble in the world of government oversight, the most widely used oxymoron in the history of mankind.
Granny Smith, now in her late nineties, wakes up one morning and finds that her dear husband for nigh-on seventy years has gone on to meet his Maker. But alas, as distraught as one would expect her to be, she is covertly delighted because, well, old Egbert Smith was not exactly the man she married and being forced to change his diaper and his bedsheets each night had grown both tiresome and difficult.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 16, 2019
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
What if it’s not a new bull market for gold? What if gold prices are going lower – not higher?
Think it can’t happen? Think again.
In December 1987, gold prices stood at just over $500.00 per ounce. They had been on a tear for the previous three years after hitting a post-peak low of just under $300.00 per ounce in February 1985.
The increase in gold’s price of $200.00 per ounce may not sound like much, but it represents a sixty-seven percent increase over that three year period. Coming on the heels of a similar percentage decline after reaching an all-time high of $850.00 per ounce in January 1980, it was a welcome salve for those who had been wounded so severely.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 15, 2019
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It was a hot monetary policy meeting yesterday. Faced with slow inflation and bleak growth, the ECB eased again, delivering a fresh stimulus package. What does it mean for the gold market?
ECB Strikes Back in Response to Subdued Inflation
Amid the continued shortfall of inflation, the ECB cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points from -0.40 to -0.50. Yes, you read it correctly, from negative 0.40 to negative 0.50. The subzero madness has deepened in the Eurozone. What is more, the central bank announced that the ultralow interest rates would remain until inflation reaches the target:
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 13, 2019
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
It’s the most widely anticipated recession in history. The recession hasn’t arrived yet – and may not do so anytime soon – but the mainstream media still can’t stop talking about it.
Consider this strange article from NBC News. It purports to show that young adults are posting dark, ironic memes to social media in reaction to a “possible recession looming.” It’s a possible, undated, undefined downturn of unknown severity that millennials are supposedly now coping with in advance!
CNN, meanwhile, sees “signs of a potential looming recession” – more severe in scope, presumably, than the network’s actual viewer ratings recession.
Friday, September 13, 2019
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed cut the interest rates at the end of July. As the previous easing cycle started in September 2007, many analysts are saying that the current year looks more and more like 2007. We invite you to read our today’s article that compares the current year with 2007 and find out what are the implications for the gold market.
The Fed cut the interest rates at the end of July. As the previous easing cycle started in September 2007, many analysts are saying that the current year looks more and more like 2007. We invite you to read our today’s article that compares the current year with 2007 and find out what are the implications for the gold market.
The recent Fed’s interest rate cut has been the first such since December 2008, when the U.S. central bank slashed the federal funds rate to almost zero. However, the Fed started its previous easing cycle in September 2007, when it cut interest rates by 50 basis points amid the severe slump in housing prices. Is this why many analysts are saying that the current year looks more and more like 2007? Are they right? And what would it mean for the gold market?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 12, 2019
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Submissions
President Trump today called for the Federal Reserve to drop interest rates to zero and beyond into negative interest rate policy levels.
Some onlookers might be shocked to see this strong suggestion by the USA's commander and chief.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 12, 2019
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold and gold stocks declined yesterday, but silver hesitated. Does this, plus the fact that gold is up so far in today’s pre-market trading indicate a short-term bottom? Or is the picture even on the verge of turning bullish?
Not at all. Let’s take a look at the chart below for details.
Read full article... Read full article...