Thursday, June 30, 2022
UK Housing Market Analysis, Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 - Part 2 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 2 of 3 of my extensive analysis of the UK housing market that concludes in a detailed 3 year trend forecast for UK house prices (Part 1).
UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024
That was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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- The REAL Stocks Bear Market of 2022
- The Psychology of Investing in a Stocks Bear Market
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- AI Tech Stocks Name of the Game, Climate Change Housing Market Impact and the Next Empires
Thursday, June 30, 2022
Stock Market Turning the Screws / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 duly paused yesterday but the (beyond very short-term) outlook remains as bearish as before. Bonds agree, but in the interests of real assets, I would have preferred to see stronger performance by miners and oil stocks. This suggests the next downleg in the stock market would affect precious metals and commodities as well. Some relative resilience (especially in gold) is there but won‘t be enough to change the neutral to bearish outlook in the least. As always in this tightening period (Treasuries keep the pressure and USD is rising), copper (with silver) are to suffer the most. Cryptos – that‘s the same story. It‘s only in oil where I expect the bulls to put up a good fight – the spike didn‘t happen yet, and once oil stocks decouple again from the general stock market, it would be easier. For today, I look for a strong day in the red across the board – good for open profits in stocks and cryptos.
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Thursday, June 30, 2022
How to Ignore Stocks (and why you should) / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
I know it’s hard to take your eyes off the market…
It’s like watching a slow-motion car crash.
Everyone, not just finance folks, is chatting about the declining stock market. My wife called me, joking she was returning some items to save money.
If you’re like most investors, you’ve probably been fixated on stock prices lately.
Today, I’ll show you why that’s a mistake.
Instead, you should focus on the single biggest driver of stock market returns, which I’ll share in a moment.
Thursday, June 30, 2022
Top Tips For Getting The Correct Insurance Option For Your Needs / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays
By: Steve_Barker
There are many different types of insurance policies available in the world today. It can be overwhelming trying to figure out which one is right for you and your family. In this blog post, we will discuss the six most common types of insurance and their benefits. We will give you a brief overview of each type of policy, as well as some tips on how to choose the right one for your needs.
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Thursday, June 30, 2022
Central Banks Plan To Buy More Gold In 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Travis_Bard
While gold and silver prices have fluctuated somewhat of late, both assets were performing a little more solidly throughout US trading last week.
In fact, August gold futures were up by around $6.90 at $1,828.10 by Wednesday last week, while July Complex silver futures increased by $0.054 to $20.86 per ounce during the same timeframe.
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Wednesday, June 29, 2022
AI Tech Stock PORTFOLIO NAME OF THE GAME / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What's the name of the game?
Answer - To gain exposure to the Quantum AI tech stocks that are on an exponential trend trajectory. That is the name of the game, where today's 50% deviations form the highs in the likes of Nvidia and AMD will become invisible blips on the long-term charts in a few short years time. Though how many investors will be able to hold on for the big pay off? I suspect not many given that today's platforms induce a trader mindset in investors which is how the platforms have been designed to drum up lots of small commissions be it IKBR's 35 cents per trade or Free Trades 0.45% F/X fee. So I know what's going to happen after stocks have bottomed and start to rocket higher say by 30% to 50% many will start asking is it now time to sell? As they think they will be able to trade in and out of corrections.
Last year I made the mistake of selling too much! Selling 80% of my holdings was too much, yes a bear market was highly probable but one does not know for sure until it actually materialises and to what degree. Back when Nvidia was flying high as a kite above $300, writing that I expected it to fall to below $200 and possibly as low as $140 does not mean it was definitely going to happen until it actually happens!
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Wednesday, June 29, 2022
Rebounding Crude Oil Gets Far Away from the Bearish Side / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Demand for crude oil is accelerating – a bullish sign for its prices. What may the current energy market environment say about the black gold’s outlook?
A Chinese Panda’s Appetite
On the Asian continent, the lifting of health restrictions in China could signal resuming oil demand for the world’s top consumer. Given the context of tight supply, this has partially triggered a rebound in crude while driving prices higher.
Geopolitical Scene
The Libyan National Oil Company (NOC) warned that they could declare a state of "force majeure" on the facilities in the Gulf of Sirte – blocked due to the political crisis that has been hitting the country for months.
In Ecuador as well, the spectre of a halt in oil production is becoming clearer following the blockades and demonstrations initiated by a movement protesting the rise in the cost of living.
Tuesday, June 28, 2022
UK House Prices - Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK House Prices - Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
There have been so many interest rate hike false dawns over the past decade that one has become skeptical that this time could be different, and YES THIS TIME COULD REALLY BE DIFFERENT DUE TO OUT OF CONTORL INFLATION that worries the CENTRAL BANKS for they understand that it risks igniting the wage price spiral which once it takes hold is not easily brought back under control, hence there is a very high probability of high inflation for a decade because the central banks will not do what needs to be done! FORGET THE NOISE ABOUT Interest rates soaring to ridiculous levels for Central banks know their banking crime syndicate brethren would go BUST! Instead rates will rise but NOT to the level needed i.e. to ABOVE the rate of INFLATION. The UK base Interest rate to control inflation would need to be ABOVE the rate of Inflation i.e. at about 10%! which is clearly not going to happen! Not even to HALF that level, and probably not even to 1/4 of that level, 2% is what the Bank of England is targeting! Whilst INFLATION rages to 10%! That is not going to cool inflation OR the HOUSING MARKET!
The Bank of England is targeting a joke interest rate of just 2%. For UK Interest rates to have any significant impact on the UK housing market the base rate would need to be above 5%, and even then the impact would be relatively mind. People are NOT STUPID! They understand Inflation of 10% vs a Mortgage rate of say 4% is a NO BRAINER i.e. BORROW to the HILT and let inflation do it's MAGIC!
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Tuesday, June 28, 2022
GOLD STOCKS ARE WORSE THAN GOLD / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
Gold stocks latest swoon confirms what has been stated and inferred in my previous articles about gold mining shares – namely, gold stocks are a lousy investment.
The original article linked in the preceding paragraph was published in September 2016. I just finished reading it again and find no reason to edit or modify its contents.
The price of gold peaked in the summer of 2016 – shortly before my article was written and published – at $1357 oz. (monthly average closing price). At that time the GDX (ETF index of gold mining shares) peaked at 30.60.
Both gold and gold mining shares (gold stocks) have been lower and higher since then, and the past six years have seen a fair amount of volatility. Lately, both gold and gold stocks have undergone downside corrections since their most recent highs earlier this year.
So where are we now?
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Tuesday, June 28, 2022
This “Bizarre” Chart is Wrecking the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
nflation just keeps getting worse…
The cost of heating your home has doubled over the past year.
Want to take a summer vacation? That airfare will cost you 50% more than last year.
Whose fault is this?
It’s easy—and partially correct—to blame the US Government and the Fed. After all, they showered Americans with big stimulus checks and generous unemployment benefits, then held interest rates at zero.
But as I’ll show you in this essay… that’s an incomplete explanation.
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Tuesday, June 28, 2022
Recession Question Answered / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Michael_Pento
President Joe Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the entirety of the money printers who inhabit the Federal Reserve and virtually all of the deep state of Wall Street are still busy trying to convince you that a recession is unlikely. Well, here’s some news for all of them. Whether or not we will have a recession is no longer a question. The recession is already here. The only question is, how deep the recession will become.The consumer is getting attacked on all fronts and their consumption accounts for nearly 70% of GDP. Falling real wages, spiking debt service costs, plunging crypto currencies, sinking stock prices and battered bond values are seriously injuring their financial health. And coming soon to a theater near you, a real estate wreck is in the offing. Instead of home prices rising 20% per annum, like they have over the last couple of years, the pace of home price appreciation should soon decline sharply. Home affordability is at a record low, while new listings and price reductions are on the rise. Home equity extractions have been severely depressed due to rising mortgage rates. And now, depreciating real estate values shut down to the bad consumer habit of relying on equity extraction to boost consumption.
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Tuesday, June 28, 2022
Technical Analysis: Why You Should Expect a Popularity Surge / InvestorEducation / Technical Analysis
By: EWI
Here's when a "rebirth of interest" in cycles and waves occurs
You probably know that the term "technical analysis" refers to analyzing the behavior of financial markets themselves -- such as the stock market -- as opposed to "fundamental" analysis, which is based on news and events outside of financial markets.
Well, in recent years, technical analysis has been out of favor.
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Monday, June 27, 2022
Have US Bonds Bottomed? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A patron asked if US bonds have bottomed / are cheap to buy now that inflation is 'peaking'.
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Monday, June 27, 2022
Gold Junior Miners: A Bearish Push Is Coming to Move Them Lower / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Let's not be confused by the temporary USDX weakness. Junior miners are faint and we can expect them to decline again soon.
April and May Replay?
Although history doesn’t repeat itself to the letter, it rhymes. At least that’s what tends to happen in the financial markets.
In today’s analysis, I’ll explain why I think we’re about to see another example of the above in the case of junior mining stocks. There’s a technique that suggests one thing, but there’s also another that suggests that a 1-to-1 analogy wouldn’t be as good a fit, as a slight deviation from it.
So far, the situation in the GDXJ – a proxy for junior mining stocks – has been similar to what happened in the second half of April and early May.
Monday, June 27, 2022
Stock Market Watching Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 squeeze aka overdue relief rally in the end developed, on sharply improving daily momentum and quite supportive bonds. Would that change the medium-term picture though? It would serve only to suck in bulls, thinking the bottom is in – while the Fed doesn‘t have the stock market‘s back, and the reprieve in market-requested tightening, would pass. The recent decline in oil prices coupled with Fed acknowledgement of some real economy difficulties, isn‘t enough for taming inflation. While prices would moderate their pace of increases, the appreciation in essentials would be unstoppable and to a large degree immune to the real economy staring at a very late 2022 / early 2023 recession (if one wouldn‘t be declared soon because of all the tightening).
Whether Powell goes 50bp or 75bp in July, will be quite indicative – I‘m not excluding hawkish (75bp) September either. The gas and energy measures are of stopgap nature, yet buying a little time for the Fed. Should the central bank not take the opportunity to tighten more, the decision would backfire down the road – just as the transitory talking point did. For now, less tight conditions (driving sentiment) would help stocks make it to the 4,000s probably – but the sell, the ambush is hanging in the air, and would take us to 3,500-3,600 target in my view (the bottom). Both value and tech kicked in on Friday but the dollar isn‘t retreating, money is still sitting on the sidelines.
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Saturday, June 25, 2022
The NEXT BIG EMPIRE WILL BE..... CANZUK / Politics / New World Order
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my last analysis I laid out why Ray Dalio was wrong about the rise of China, that according to his thesis was set to displace the US and herald in a New Chinese World Order, where I even went so far as to make the following video to delve deeper into why Ray Dalio was wrong and hinted at where the new empire could emerge from.
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Saturday, June 25, 2022
Who (or What) Is Really in Charge of Bitcoin's Price Swings? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: EWI
Bitcoin lost three-quarters of its value since November. "Market fundamentals" have lost control of its trend. But something else has been at the wheel the whole time.
I'm not ashamed to admit I have the technological intelligence of an Eggo waffle. So, when my computer bugged out the other day, I called the IT department at work. The tech wizard on the other end showed me to a webpage where I had to click a box that read: "Consent to Control." From that point, the IT guy was able to hack into my laptop, find the source of the glitch, and remedy the problem.
As I sat there watching my cursor move around the monitor on its own, clicking tab after tab as if by some phantomlike force, I thought,
"Holy moly, this is the virtual screenshare of mainstream financial wisdom."
Summarized as such: External forces known as "market fundamentals" operate prices remotely. Positive fundamentals cause the price "cursor" to rise, while negative news and events trigger selloffs. And investors? They have little choice but to "consent" to this outside control.
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Saturday, June 25, 2022
Crude Oil Price Forecast - Trend Breaks Downward – Rejecting The $120 Level / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent downward Crude Oil trend may have caught many traders by surprise. Just before the US Fed raised interest rates on June 15, 2022, Crude oil was trading above $120ppb. Less than 5 days later, it collapsed -12% and has continued to trend lower. Currently, Crude Oil is near -17% lower than recent highs.
It appears Crude Oil has confirmed resistance near $120 and is devaluing as consumers pull away from traditional driving/spending habits while the Fed aggressively attempts to burst the inflation bubble. This type of contraction in Crude Oil is very similar to what happened in 2008-09 when the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) hit – Crude Oil collapsed more than -70% after IYC started trending lower in 2007.
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Thursday, June 23, 2022
Everyone and their Grandma is Expecting a Big Stocks Bear Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Everyone and their grandma has been eagerly awaiting a big bear market bounce since at least the start of May that has repeatedly failed to materialise, why? It's because everyone and their grandma has been expecting a big market rally that's why! Here's another update on the state of the AI stocks portfolio in advance of finalising my 3 YEAR US house prices trend forecast.
My bear market expectations remain for the Dow to target a trend to 29,600 due to be achieved during August / Early September for an approx 20% top to bottom bear market target.
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Thursday, June 23, 2022
The Fed’s Hawkish Bite Left Its Mark on the S&P 500 Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
By raising interest rates, the Fed poured cold water on the red-hot markets and finally chilled investors' enthusiasm. What's next for asset prices?
Work in Progress
With the Fed’s hawkish hammer pounding the financial markets, the selling pressure coincided with events unseen since 2008. Moreover, with the work in progress to reduce inflation poised to push asset prices even lower, I’ve long warned that we’re likely far from a medium-term bottom. For example, I wrote on May 31:
With recession fears decelerating and optimism returning to Wall Street, the bulls are brimming with confidence.