Friday, April 01, 2022
Still Waiting to Take a BITE out of APPLE / Companies / Apple
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apple soared on earnings to $175, subsequent price action has hardly seen any reaction so in my opinion Apple continues to trade on thin air at near a $3 trillion valuation trading on a PE near 29 with the market awaiting release of Iphone SE with 5G on March 8th, a lower cost version of the iphone for those who don't want to pay over $1000 for an iphone. Apple is a good stock but it trades on a nuts valuation, hence my exposure is a tiny 4% of target.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 01, 2022
US Interest Rate Yield Curve 101 – Steep, Flat, Inverted – What’s The Difference? / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The yield curve plots the current yield of a range of government notes and bonds in the “primary market.” The worldwide bond market – including private and government debt — currently represents about $120 trillion in outstanding obligations. The United States accounts for roughly $46 trillion (39%).
The U.S. government finances its spending by collecting taxes and issuing debt. More specifically, the U.S. Treasury funds deficit spending by issuing debt instruments with a range of maturities.
- Treasury Bills have maturities from one month to one year.
- Treasury Notes have maturities from two to ten years.
- Very long-term debt is issued as Treasury Bonds with 20- and 30-year maturities.
Friday, April 01, 2022
4 Scenarios for BIG Moves in Precious Metals Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
World events are driving a volatile and potentially pivotal environment ahead for investors. Huge swings in financial markets are likely still to come.
Direction, magnitude, and timing are difficult to predict. But precious metals bulls are eying massive upside potential for gold and silver as war and inflation stoke safe-haven buying.
What follows are four major macro scenarios that could impact metals markets in a big way in the months ahead.
Friday, April 01, 2022
Can Tracking Global Money Flow Provide Clues To Stay In The Black? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
According to The Bank of International Settlements, the global foreign currency exchange (FX) daily transactional turnover averages $6.6 trillion. At Technical Traders, we track a variety of markets, asset classes, and global money flow looking for clues that will help us in our quest for ETF returns. Interestingly when foreign exchange is charted as a benchmark to the SPY (S&P 500), we can see that FX has also been in a risk-on environment for the past 2-years.
Recently we looked at volatility utilizing the CBOE Volatility Index known as VIX. But there are alternative ways or tools that we can use to analyze asset prices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 01, 2022
Neither the FED nor US Government Can Print “Trust” / Politics / US Politics
By: Raymond_Matison
In this period of great economic, financial, monetary and geopolitical uncertainty, Borge Brende, the current president of the World Economic Forum, stated that countries need to prepare for the next crisis today. Mr. Brende more importantly stated that “We have to focus on rebuilding trust. There is a lot of lack of trust”. That is a very insightful and timely observation. Stateside and nearer to home, a recent University of Michigan survey notes that confidence in US government policies is at its lowest since 2014.
At the same time, available statistics show that 84% of the people in China trust their government, while 81% of Indonesians and 79% of the people in India trust their governments. How does one explain, that those countries which the western world criticizes for being oppressive or lacking freedom, when polled rank higher in trust of their governments than western democracies?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 01, 2022
UK Energy Bills Catastrophe! 50% Price Cap Rise - SUBMIT Meter Readings ASAP to Avoid Extra Charges / Personal_Finance / Household Bills
By: N_Walayat
Britians' energy price cap has risen by 50% today which is what most customers will be paying given that all of the fixed rate deals charge more than even the latest price cap. If you have not already submitted a meter reading that it is still not too late to do so but the sooner you submit the better to avoid energy usage being charged at a 50% higher cost.
So having an accurate read of where customers stand WILL make a difference! Once upon a time the price cap could be ignored but not for the past 6 months as a myriad of energy firms such as Zog Energy dumped their fixed rate customers onto regulators who passed the customers onto firms such as EDF onto their variable rate tariffs that as of writing are some 60% BELOW fixed rate tariffs, so the worst thing anyone can do is to FIX their energy tariffs as even after tomorrows 50% hike, the price cap will still be lower than fixed rate deals, and likely remain so all the way into the next price price cap hike on 1st October when we could see another huge hike of as much as 30% ahead of winter 2022.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 31, 2022
WARNING - Energy Price Cap 50% Rise Tomorrow, Take and Submit Gas Electric Meter Readings ASAP! / Personal_Finance / Household Bills
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britians' energy cap is set to rise tomorrow that will probable see average standard rate tariffs hiked by over 50%! And this is no April Fools day joke! FIFTY PERCENT HIKE IN ENERGY PRICES! So having an accurate read of where customers stand WILL make a difference! Once upon a time the price cap could be ignored but not for the past 6 months as a myriad of energy firms such as Zog Energy dumped their fixed rate customers onto regulators who passed the customers onto firms such as EDF onto their variable rate tariffs that as of writing are some 60% BELOW fixed rate tariffs, so the worst thing anyone can do is to FIX their energy tariffs as even after tomorrows 50% hike, the price cap will still be lower than fixed rate deals, and likely remain so all the way into the next price price cap hike on 1st October when we could see another huge hike of as much as 30% ahead of winter 2022.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 31, 2022
Commodities are Ripping Higher— Here’s my Top Way to Cash in / Commodities / Uranium
By: Submissions
Commodities are on fire.The price of oil has soared 43% since the start of the year.
Palladium—a metal most often used in catalytic converters—has increased 28% over the same period, while wheat has spiked 39%...
These are major moves. But I see commodity prices headed even higher this year.
Specifically, a huge opportunity is setting up in one of the most overlooked corners of the commodity market.
I’ll show you how to position yourself for this in a minute. But first, let’s look at why commodity stocks have been on such a tear lately.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 30, 2022
MICROSOFT Stock Short and Sharp / Companies / Microsoft
By: Nadeem_Walayat
If you blinked you missed the plunge on earnings! For most folks the best they could have got was about $277 via limit orders. I bought Microsoft in the green zone all the way down to $280, but got greedy with my big order at $274, not filled. so I remain stuck at about 18% invested of target exposure (1% of portfolio) as I still await the big buys to be triggered. Microsoft is reinforcing itself as a gaming giant by bidding $64 billion for Activision. To imagine that Microsoft is not going to have a big foot print in the meta-verse is a big mistake whilst they do have their own VR headsets however so far they are tethered to PC's apart form the augmented reality Hololens which I see as an expensive stop gap, so far behind where Facebook is.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 30, 2022
How the "Great Resignation" Ties in with a Financial Peak / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: EWI
Insights into "a peak in social optimism of monumental proportions"
Some people probably remember that country song by Johnny Paycheck from the late '70s -- "Take This Job and Shove It."
Many of those in the younger generations may not have heard of it given the song was released more than 40 years ago. However, many of them caught the spirit of it just the same as they quit their jobs in droves in what has been called the "Great Resignation."
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 30, 2022
US Military Spending to Exceed Annual Deficits / Economics / US Military
By: Richard_Mills
“Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed.”
– President Dwight D. Eisenhower
The guns versus butter model portrays the relationship between a nation’s investment in defense and civilian goods. Because a country has finite resources, it must choose how much to spend on defense/ the military (guns), against the amount budgeted for items that are needed for non-defensive purposes (butter). Of course, it can also buy a combination of both, and most countries do.
The one nation that doesn’t have to bother with this, is the United States. Because the US holds the reserve currency, and all the exorbitant privilege that implies, it can spend on guns AND butter. Fact is, whenever the US government runs short on funds, it simply prints more money. Or borrows it, by issuing Treasury bills that are sopped up by domestic and foreign investors. The demand for Treasuries will always be resilient, so long as the dollar remains the reserve currency. This, however, may not be the case for much longer…
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 30, 2022
How To Start A Business In 6 Easy Steps / Companies / SME
By: Steve_Barker
Every new business owner will tell you one or two success stories. The first one is like it 'seems to have happened overnight' where everything runs perfectly, while the second story is one of resilience and hard work that has eventually paid off. No matter which story you identify with, there are always some key steps that you can follow to get your business started on the right foot, and the story, well, in the end, you will choose how to tell it.
Starting a business can seem like a daunting task. You may feel like you need to have an idea that’s never been done before, or spend months planning and perfecting your strategy. But the truth is, there are fast and efficient solutions to do the work without the headache. Here are six easy steps to get your business off the ground.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 30, 2022
Get More Satisfied Customers With These Simple Tricks / Companies / SME
By: Steve_Barker
The customer is always right. It’s a cliché for a reason. Putting the customer first is essential to the success of any business, whether it’s a small mom-and-pop shop or a multi-million dollar corporation. There are countless ways to organize your business in order to make the customer feel comfortable and valued that you can explore, but there are a few simple tricks that can make a big difference in customer satisfaction to get you started.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 29, 2022
Learn to Value Stocks Using the Earnings Growth Factor / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
After the current panic passes I will revert to posting my primary AI stocks table as the main table for data, presently the table retains my original pre-panic buying levels as of 22nd November 2022 for comparison purposes with levels achieved in red against those that remain pending. Remember all of these levels once upon a time seemed far out of reach, who could have imagined Nvidia would fall from $336 to $236 over a couple of months! Google to $2625! Microsoft to $282, Intel to $48, okay I'll give you Intel, but many of the levels have now been achieved and then some!
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 29, 2022
Who Benefits Most From the Russia-Ukraine War? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Submissions
With the unrest in the Black Sea basin, it appears that there are two more cross-trade wars in the world. These are about energy and currency.
Crude oil prices, down most of Friday, finally ended the week higher after a huge fire broke out at oil facilities in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, following attacks by Yemeni rebels.
The great winner of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is undoubtedly the United States, which now seems to be taking advantage of Europe’s moment of weakness.
Tuesday, March 29, 2022
Stocks: Should We Expect More Upside? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks extended their short-term uptrend on Friday, but this week we may see some more uncertainty and a possible profit-taking action.The S&P 500 index gained 0.53% on Friday following its Thursday’s advance of 1.4%. The broad stock market’s gauge extended its short-term uptrend after breaking above the 4,500 level. It gained over 380 points from the Mar. 14 local low of around 4,162. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we may see another correction and a profit-taking action at some point.
There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but investors were recently jumping back into stocks despite that geopolitical uncertainty. This morning the index is expected to open virtually flat after an overnight advance followed by its retracement.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 28, 2022
GOOGLE TO BE SLICIED INTO 20 PIECES! / Companies / Google
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Strong earnings growth and news of a 20 to 1 STOCK SPLIT sent GOOGLE soaring towards it's all time highs, Stocks tend to run higher into a split and fall afterwards so I plan to be fully invested by Mid June and will likely take profits on the split on 15th July. If you hold whole shares then you will get 20 new Google shares, if you hold fractional shares you will likely get $$$'s in exchange for your fractional holdings which may not be so bad given that the stock should fall after the split. Google is Numero uno! Should be at the very core of every stock portfolio, at 2.4% of my portfolio my holding is light, I want to see my holding rise to about 7% of portfolio. Again just remember if you own a fractional share then you will likely get cash instead of split shares, so if you hold say 1.8 shares right now then you definitely want to look at pepping your holding up to over 2.0, unless you want the cash.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 28, 2022
Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index. It is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates that are utilized to generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. The VIX allows us to gauge market sentiment or the degree of fear among market participants. As the Volatility Index VIX goes up, fear increases, and as it goes down, fear dissipates.
Commodities and equities are both showing renewed strength on the heels of global interest rate increases. Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continues their upward bias.
During the last 18-months, the VIX has been trading between its upper resistance of 36.00 and its lower support of 16.00. As the Volatility Index VIX falls, fear subsides, and money flows back into stocks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 28, 2022
Currency Wars Center on Russia’s Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
In response to Russia’s war on Ukraine, the U.S. and G-7 countries have launched a currency war against the Kremlin. Sanctions imposed on the Russian central bank have effectively blacklisted the country from the U.S. dollar-dominated global financial system.
Now the Biden administration is attempting to prevent Russia from using gold as an alternative medium of exchange.
Last week, the Treasury Department declared, “US persons are prohibited from engaging in any transaction – including gold-related transactions – involving the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the National Wealth Fund of the Russian Federation or the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.”
Monday, March 28, 2022
Smart Ways of Financing Commercially Viable Projects When the Cash is Scarce / Companies / SME
By: Steve_Barker
It's no secret that cash flow is often the biggest hurdle for businesses looking to get their projects off the ground. Commercial viability is key, but if you can't find a way to finance your venture, it'll never see the light of day. In this article, we'll discuss some smart ways to finance your project when money is tight.
Read full article... Read full article...