Monday, April 24, 2017
Russia Campaigns for the Le Pen French Presidency / Politics / France
By: STRATFOR
The European Union's busy election season is an important campaign opportunity, not only for the politicians running, but also for the Kremlin. Several leaders and governments around the world have accused Moscow of coordinating disinformation campaigns to influence other countries' political affairs over the past year. The Kremlin quadrupled its spending on media activities abroad in its latest federal budget, and since half its projected expenditures are labeled confidential, Moscow may well be devoting hundreds of millions more to the cause. Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of Russia's legislature and a top political strategist, has been stumping across the European Union this campaign season, meeting with representatives of nationalist parties such as Alternative for Germany. And now Moscow has turned its focus toward France as the country gears up for two months of presidential and legislative elections.
Sunday, April 23, 2017
Emmanuel Macron vs Marine Le Pen Round 2 - Can BrExit Factor Deliver Le Pen Victory? / Politics / France
By: Nadeem_Walayat
France is heaving a temporary sigh of relief as the nightmare scenario of a far right Le Pen vs a far left Melenchon round 1 win failed to materialise, instead that which has always been most probable has come to pass, where the two candidates with the most votes going into the second and final round of the French Presidential election will be centrist Emmanuel Macron (23.8%) vs far right Marine Le Pen (21.7%).
Sunday, April 23, 2017
USD Cycle Update - 23rd April / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
This Update will provide both a near term and long term update on the USD an where I think it stands in its short and long term cycles. My first two charts are the same near term daily chart. The first provides my cycle counts for the past 6 Trading Cycles. The second shows a potential Blue Fork Channel that should hold it. USD did find a TC low on day 17 last week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 23, 2017
The Upsides and Risks of May's Snap UK Election Decision / Politics / UK General Election
By: STRATFOR
The decision by Prime Minister Theresa May to call a snap election took the United Kingdom somewhat by surprise. When word went out early Tuesday that she was to make an announcement an hour later, rumors about what she would say rumbled across the country, touching on everything from the possible death of the queen to the announcement of direct rule in Northern Ireland. The idea that she would call a snap election initially was dismissed in light of her previous flat denials, but once the other possibilities were eliminated, an election was all that could remain.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 23, 2017
EURUSD at a Critical Point in Wave Structure / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Enda_Glynn
My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: French Presidential Election, German Ifo Business Climate. USD: N/A.
Sunday, April 23, 2017
Stock Market Grand Super Cycle Overview While SPX Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started this gap filled week at SPX 2329. A gap up opening Monday took the SPX to 2349. Then after a gap down opening on Tuesday the market found support at SPX 2335. A gap up opening on Wednesday took the SPX to 2353, which was sold off into 2335 again. On Thursday another gap up opening took the market to SPX 2361. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2349 on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.75%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: the NY/Philly FED, the WLEI, the NAHB, housing starts, plus weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: building permits, industrial production, capacity utilization, leading indicators and existing home sales. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q1 GDP, the Chicago PMI, durable goods and housing. Best to your week!
Sunday, April 23, 2017
Robert Prechter Talks About Elliott Waves and His New Book / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
Avi Gilburt of ElliottWaveTrader.net conducted a thoughtful interview with Bob Prechter recently. We thought you'd like to see it.
1. How did you come across Elliott wave analysis?
My dad subscribed to Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters, and he would occasionally forward his copies to me. In 1968, Russell began writing about A.J. Frost's Elliott wave work. He published wave interpretations for the Dow off and on through late 1974, when he called the end of the bear market. During that time, I began charting gold and gold stocks, labeling the waves. After I became a professional technician at Merrill Lynch in 1975, I went on a search for Elliott's original books, which were published in ring binders. The Library of Congress didn't have them. Finally I found copies on microfilm in the New York Public Library. It was a thrill coming across those listings on library cards. In 1980, I republished Elliott's original books and articles in what is now called R.N. Elliott's Masterworks. Later I published all of Bolton's, Frost's and Russell's Elliott wave writings along with bios and notes.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 23, 2017
After The Crash - Digital And Regenerative Medicine, Live for Ever! / Companies / BioTech
By: John_Rubino
For most people, the doctor visit hasn’t changed in decades. Same physical waiting rooms, same paper forms to fill out, same slow, expensive tests and marginally-effective, maximally-invasive treatments. But that’s about to change, as a wave of new technologies drag medicine into the 21st century. Among the most interesting:
Saturday, April 22, 2017
Le Pen, Melenchon French Election Stock, Bond and Euro Markets Crash / Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The French people, European Union and financial markets are counting down to a potential seismic history shattering election result event, perhaps bigger than Britains' BrExit, perhaps even a bigger shock than Trump winning the US Election, for a Le Pen / Melenchon extremes of the far right and far left result would mark the starting point for the DEATH of the Euro-zone and soon afterwards the European Union.
Saturday, April 22, 2017
Why You Are Not An Investor / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Raul_I_Meijer
You are not an investor. One can only be an investor in functioning markets. There have been no functioning markets since at least 2008, and probably much longer. That’s when central banks started purchasing financial assets, for real, which means that is also the point when price discovery died. And without price discovery no market can function.
You are therefore not an investor. Perhaps you are a cheat, perhaps you are a chump, but you are not an investor. If we continue to use terms like ‘investor’ and ‘markets’ for what we see today, we would need to invent new terms for what these words once meant. Because they surely are not the same thing. Even as there are plenty people who would like you to believe they are, because it serves their purposes.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 22, 2017
Gold Market Fractal Event / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“In the absence of a credible monetary standard, we expect no escape from the treadmill of rising debt, both US and globally, that outpaces economic growth. Income inequality, wage stagnation, overvaluation of financial assets, and speculation instead of productive investment are likely to be prolonged under the current monetary regime. Whether or not policy makers take a proactive approach to address monetary reform, the fact remains that gold is massively underpriced in all paper currencies. It would be preferable if the necessary adjustments could occur without a repeat of a 2008-like financial crisis. We give this possibility a chance, albeit slim. In any event, we expect a significant repricing of gold higher during the current administration, either by design or because of market events. Whenever a repricing happens, we expect broad grassroots support for that outcome.” – John Hathaway, Tocqueville Funds
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 22, 2017
Le Pen vs Melenchon Election Doomsday for France and EU - Hard Left vs Hard Right / Politics / France
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The last French poll ahead of Sunday's first round in the French presidential election is resulting in a three horse race from which the 2 front runners will go through to the second round. Centrist Macron leads far right Le Pen by 1% on 23.5% against 22.5% with far left Melenchon snapping at her heels on 21.5%, all within the margins of polling error of 3%! Which means there could easily be a doomsday scenario outcome for France and the European Union, one of the two disruptive anti-EU candidates, Hard Left vs Hard Right going into the second round. Where Le Pen would seek to immediately take France out of the Euro-zone and Anti-German pro Putin Melenchon would seek to impose a 100% tax rate on those earning above e360,000 triggering a French recession, and where his policies of stimulus through printing hundreds of billions of euro debt would also inevitably mean France leaving the Euro-zone, as the ECB controls the printing of Euro's and not the central banks of Eurozone members.
Saturday, April 22, 2017
Gold IRAs: How to Lessen or Avoid That Pesky Capital Gains Tax / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: HAA
Since we just finished tax season, many first-time gold investors might wonder what to do about their precious metals holdings. How are they taxed, and are there any legal ways to lessen those taxes?
Precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum are considered capital assets, so you will have to pay capital gains taxes when you sell them for a profit.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 22, 2017
Gold Price Upleg Momentum Building / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold’s young upleg just enjoyed a major upside breakout, bolstering strong technicals and heralding a coming Golden Cross buy signal. Investors have started aggressively buying gold again after record-high stock markets distracted them. This gold upleg’s upside momentum is really building, portending accelerating gains in coming months. Yet sentiment remains poor, with traders still quite bearish on gold.
Virtually no one is excited about gold these days. Mainstream investors continue to ignore it like usual, while contrarians largely expect a lackluster sideways grind at best. This apathy is the natural result of gold’s recent consolidation between late February and mid-April. With 6+ weeks seeing no net progress, there was little to spark any enthusiasm. Thus gold gradually faded from speculators’ and investors’ radars.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 22, 2017
Why Now Gold and Silver Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Richard_Mills
John Exter was an American economist and a member of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve System.
Exter is known for creating Exter's Pyramid - useful for visualizing the organization of asset classes in terms of risk and size.
When the credit system is expanding most money flows to the top of the pyramid - the increasingly speculative and illiquid investments. When the credit system comes under pressure and debt cannot be repaid, the items at the top of the pyramid get sold and money flows towards the bottom.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 22, 2017
4 Maps That Signal Central Asia Is at Risk of War / Politics / WW3
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Central Asia is crumbling. The speed and extent of this leans in part on political and economic shifts in Russia, China, Afghanistan, and more. Geography is the main reason outside forces are shaping the growth of Central Asia.
Always trapped between major powers such as Russia and China, Central Asia is at risk of war.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 22, 2017
5 Key Steps For A Comfortable Retirement From Former Wall Street Trader / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : “Are you good with money?” You hear that question a lot. But, what does it mean?
It means:
- Paying your bills on time
- Being able to put something aside
- Maybe investing it
- Fully funding your retirement accounts
- Retiring comfortably
It doesn’t matter what you do for a living or how much you make. I know people who have never made more than a five-figure income and are millionaires (true story—more on this later).
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 21, 2017
Can Marine Le Pen Win? French Presidential Election Forecast 2017 / Politics / France
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's anti-establishment Brexit contagion could once more be on the march by spreading from its heavy influence on the US Presidential election, that allowed an alt-reality TV star to con his way into the White House, and thus could similarly allow France's far right Marine Le Pen funded by Putin's regime to squeak her way into the Elysee Palace.
Whilst it is beyond the scope of this video to consider all of the ramifications of a potential Le Pen victory for the French people, one thing is for certain that it would greatly destabilise the European Union as a Le Pen regime would be pro-Brexit and soon announce Frances own FrExit EU Referendum which would amount to the death of the European Union.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 21, 2017
Why Stock Market Investors May Soon Be In For A Rude Awakening / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : It seems that a lot of people have missed the distinction between wishful thinking and reality lately—and I fear it’s going to hurt them badly.
After Donald Trump won in November, some Americans didn’t just hope for the best; they thought it was here.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 21, 2017
Median US Household’s Wealth Has Declined by 40% Since 2007 / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
Nominal US household wealth is at an all-time high. But my friend Marc Faber (publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report) says that's mostly an illusion.
Below, Marc looks at the relationship between asset prices and US household wealth, and the effect of that relationship on the economy.
It seems the wealth of the top 0.1% has vastly improved in recent decades (and the top 10% haven’t done at all badly). But “the median household’s or asset owner’s wealth has declined by close to 40% in real terms (adjusted by the CPI) from its peak in 2007.”
Median household increases in wealth are also illusory because the main component of household wealth is pension fund assets (approximately US$22 trillion).
Read full article... Read full article...