Friday, January 07, 2022
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
The higher price for gold over time reflects the loss in purchasing power of the US dollar. The loss in the dollar’s purchasing power is an effect of inflation.
Over the past century, the US dollar has lost approximately ninety-nine percent of its purchasing power. The loss in purchasing power is reflected in a gold price that has increased one-hundred fold ($20.67 oz. x 100 = $2067 oz).
The effect of deflation on the gold price is different. To be more accurate, the effect of deflation on gold’s price is opposite to the effect resulting from inflation.
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Friday, January 07, 2022
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I started this article by highlighting how difficult some 2021 strategies seemed for many Hedge Funds and Professional Traders. It appears the extreme market volatility throughout 2021 took a toll on many systems and strategies. I wouldn’t be surprised to see various sector ETFs and Sector Mutual Funds up 15% to 20% or more for 2021 while various Hedge Funds struggle with annual returns between 7% and -5% for 2021.
After many years in this industry and having built many of my own strategies over the past decade, I’ve learned one very important facet of trading strategy development – expect the unexpected. A friend always told me to “focus on failure” when we developed strategies together. His approach to strategy design was “you develop it do too well in certain types of market trends and volatility. By focusing on where it fails, you’ll learn more about the potential draw-downs and risks of a strategy than ignoring these points of failure”. I tend to agree with him.
In the first part of this research article, the other concept I started discussing was how traders/investors might consider moving away from strategies that struggled in 2022. What if the markets continue trending with extreme volatility throughout 2022 and into 2023? Suppose your system or strategy has taken some losses in 2022, and you have not stopped to consider volatility or other system boundaries as a potential issue. In that case, you may be looking forward to a very difficult 12 to 14+ months of trading in 2022 and 2023.
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Friday, January 07, 2022
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Submissions
Happy new year, everyone! We hope that 2022 will be a prosperous one for all our readers. However, will it be successful for oil?
Energy Market Updates
Yesterday, crude oil prices ended higher, after a volatile session as US inventories fell by 6.4 million barrels – more than twice the previous week – which is another positive sign for demand.
Friday, January 07, 2022
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Is The Lazy-Bull Strategy Worth Considering? – Part I
Many traders struggled in 2021 with the extended price volatility and sideways price trends. Recently, news that Bridgewater’s 2021 results were saved by December’s +7.8% gain (Source: Yahoo! Finance) leads me to believe a number of independent funds and investors are going to have a tough end-of-year return for 2021.
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Thursday, January 06, 2022
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? / Companies / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I often get asked by Patrons to take a look at Sony, so finally the metaverse may give a reason to own SONY. The problem I have with Sony is that it is a mish mash of divisions from gaming that we want to invest in then there is Sony Pictures and Sony consumer electronics that took a big hit due to the Pandemic. Sony Music which also tends to do well, Sony financials? No not crypto's, just another bolt on, a bit like when the US automakers thought they were banks. Gaming is where the action is at but it only accounts for about 30% of Sony's revenues. Trades on a PE of 18.5, pays a small dividend of 0.34%, Expected EPS of 11% so it's hardly going to do an Nvidia or a Microsoft. On the plus side it does buy back 'some' shares every now and then so no share holder dilution in recent years. It's basically a safe stock if bought at the right price and that right price would be at about 15X earnings. Current price is $121 divided by 18.5 X 15 = $98, so lets see if $98 is possible.
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Thursday, January 06, 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: EWI
Hi,
The Asian-Pacific markets have led global stocks higher since April 2020 -- and they are still MOVING.
Elliott waves have stayed a step ahead. Wondering what they’re showing for 2022?
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Thursday, January 06, 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company / Companies / SME
By: Submissions
There are many business owners out there who want to register their businesses, but they avoid some money required to register their businesses. Others don’t want to register their businesses just to avoid paying taxes.
Remember that any person can launch a business. You just need to have a business idea, a product, or a service to sell to your target market. However, to sell a service or product, you may need to legally register your business. There are many good reasons why it makes sense to register your business. This page discusses why you should register your company.
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Thursday, January 06, 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Submissions
Silver is one of the few precious metals that have been popular among investors for quite some time. It’s an inflation hedge that can potentially protect one's wealth against uncertain times and market turmoil, which is probably why the silver market is seen as one of the most reliable investment options in recent years. Some investors have also been impressed by how silver has outperformed other assets such as stocks and how it has demonstrated its value appreciation over time.If you're planning to add silver to your investment portfolio, you should be aware that there are several methods for investing in this precious metal. This article will show you how to invest in silver in 2022.
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Wednesday, January 05, 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond / Companies / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UNITY (U) - RISK 3 OUT OF 10.
Unity is the leading platform for creating virtual games with titles including Pokemon Go and Angry Birds. If or rather when I venture down the yellow brick road of creating my own virtual world it is very highly likely that I will be doing it using Unity because it is FREE! Powerful free software means that Unity already has huge market share as HALF of ALL of the games are made with Unity..
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Wednesday, January 05, 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
Another daily rise in yields forced S&P 500 down through tech weakness – the excessive selloff in growth didn‘t lead buyers to step in strongly. More base building in tech looks likely, but its top isn‘t in, and similarly to the late session HYG rebound, spells a day of stabization and rebalancing just ahead. I‘m not looking for an overly sharp move, even if the very good non-farm employment change of 807K vs. 405K expected could have facilitated one. Friday though is the day of the key figure release – till then a continued bullish positioning where every S&P 500 dip is being bought, would be most welcome.
The same goes for high yield corporate bonds not standing in the way, and for credit markets to reverse yesterday‘s risk-off slant. Likewise the compressed yield curve could provide more relief by building on last few days‘ upswings in the 10- to 2-year Treasury ratio. VIX has been repelled above 17 again, and keeps looking ready to meander near its recent values‘ lower end.
Wednesday, January 05, 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, silver, and mining stocks started 2022 with a bang. However, this wasn’t the kind of fireworks investors were hoping for.
While gold, silver, and mining stocks partied hard into year-end, the trio woke up to massive hangovers on Jan. 3. Although I’ve been warning for some time that mining stocks would stumble in 2021, the New Year is still filled with old problems.
For example, the GDX ETF has been making lower lows and lower highs for months, and when its RSI (Relative Strength Index) approaches 70, the senior miners often run out of gas. For context, I highlighted the events with the blue vertical dashed lines below.
Wednesday, January 05, 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The S&P 500 retraced its late last week’s declines yesterday and it went closer to the 4,800 level again. Will it reach the new record high today?
The broad stock market index gained 0.64% on Monday, Jan. 3, as it retraced most of the recent decline from last Thursday’s record high of 4,808.93. Yesterday the index fell to the local low of 4,758.17, before advancing almost 40 points. The S&P 500 index remains way above the local highs from November and December. Stocks broke above the consolidation and we had a quick Santa Claus rally. The broad stock market’s gauge continues to trade within a short-term consolidation. For now, it looks like a relatively flat correction within an uptrend.
On Dec. 3 the index fell to the local low of 4,495.12 and it was 5.24% below the previous record high. So it was a pretty mild downward correction or just a consolidation following last year’s advances.
Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Current State / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In terms of the AI stocks portfolio this means I am scrapping small nearby limit orders I had for Apple,. Microsoft, AVGO, and LMT, and replacing with more distant limit order, for instance I would be buying significant exposure to LMT at around $300 rather than at my just scrapped limit order of $326. Similarly I amended my LIMIT order to buy more INTEL from $47 to $44 and and IBM from $115 to $108. Though I would not be surprised if both Intel and IBM ROSE whilst the rest of the market fell, hence why I am content to already be mostly fully invested in Intel and IBM.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2022
The Alibaba Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Those lockdown growth tech stock darlings are leading the decline, the non FAANG variety are seriously starting to resemble Alibaba in terms of trend trajectories.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Will Gold & Silver Be Investment Outcasts in 2022 Again? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
For precious metals investors, 2021 will rank as a disappointing year – at least in terms of price performance. Gold and silver lagged behind the stock market as well as broad commodity indexes.
Gold showed signs of gathering upside momentum in the spring, but prices settled back down into a wide trading range for the rest of the year. The monetary metal is down about 3% for the year but will finish well off its lows.
Turning to silver, the white metal finished down over 9% for 2021.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Stock Market Happy 2022 Entry / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 pared prior steep gains, but thanks to the credit markets message, I‘m not reading into Friday‘s weakness much. There is still more in this rally – value held better than tech, and high yield corporate bonds didn‘t really slide. The year end rebalancing will likely give way to solid Monday‘s performance. While VIX appears to want to move up from the 17 level, it would probably take more than one day to play out.
As the Santa Claus rally draws to its close, the nearest data point worth looking forward for, is Tuesday‘s ISM Manufacturing PMI. It‘ll likely show still expanding manufacturing (however challenged GDP growth is on a quarterly basis), and that would help commodities deal with the preceding downswing driven by energy and agrifoods. Both of these sectors are likely to return to gains, and especially oil is. As stated on Thursday, the open profits would still keep rising.
Precious metals were the key winners Friday, paying attention to the dollar and nominal yields retreat the most. The red metal‘s upswing certainly helped – such were my latest words:
(…) copper is primed to catch up in the short run to the other commodities, gold is well bid at current levels, and together with silver waiting for a Fed misstep (market risk reappreciation) and inflation to start biting still some more while the real economy undergoes a soft patch (note however the very solid manufacturing data) with global liquidity remaining constrained even though the Fed didn‘t exactly taper much in Dec, and nominal yields taking a cautious and slow path towards my 2022 year end target of 1.80-2.00% on the 10-year Treasury.
As I wrote prior Monday, we‘re looking at still positive 2022 returns in stocks – of course joined by commodities and precious metals. The path would be though probably a more turbulent one than was the case in 2021.
Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Complete paradigm shift will make Gold the generational trade / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Wall Street billionaire and financier Thomas Kaplan (who once said, “I’m no insect; gold is a great way to make a lot of money.”) is among the group of analysts who believes gold is in the early stages of a new up leg in its long-term secular bull market. Though Kaplan made his fortune in the mining business, he is also an Oxford-trained historian (with a Ph.D.) capable of putting gold’s current price trend in the context of a longer-term cycle – one he believes has not yet reached full maturity. (Please see chart below.)
“Let’s put it this way,” he says in a memorable interview with Stansberry Research’s Daniela Cambone, “gold still remains on Wall Street and in the west probably the most under-owned, least crowded trade in the global financial markets. … The era in which gold was the asset which people loved to hate and hated to love is starting to come to an end. We’re still in the very early innings. It’s still a smart money trade as opposed to a big passive money trade but that’s about to happen.” The next leg up, he believes, will be driven by what he calls “bold-faced” names now involved in the gold business. Kaplan, in that regard, mentions Warren Buffett (who at the time of the interview had just purchased stock in mining giant Barrick Gold), Mohamed El Erian, Mark Mobius, Ray Dalio, Paul Tudor Jones, Jeffrey Gundlach, and Kenneth Rogoff. (Long-time readers of this newsletter will recognize that list of notables as abbreviated.)
“The difference is this,” he concludes. “The market is now ready for the next leg of the gold bull market. The first leg was the one that took us up 12 consecutive years in a row regardless of whether there were inflation fears, deflation fears, whether there was a glut of oil or a shortage of oil, political stability or political instability, dollar weakness, dollar strength. It didn’t matter. Every year for 12 years gold went up. The next move is going to be a third wave, a long wave that lasts for a decade or fifteen years, maybe more … I think that you really are looking at a complete paradigm shift that will make gold the generational trade.” From there, Kaplan goes on to say that gold will reach $3000 to $5000 in the years to come.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Corsair MP600 NVME2 1tb Drive Sudden DEATH Failures - Back Up NOW! / ConsumerWatch / Computing
By: HGR
Corsair MP600 is a PCIE4.0 SSD drive with advertised read speeds of upto 4950 mb/s and write speeds of upto 4250 mm/s. After some 8 months of usage had already dropped in performance to about half advertised, well that should have been taken as a warning of worse to come as one of the two 1tb MP600 drives in my system FAILED within a few hours of first showing warning signs. Find out why you NEED TO BACK UP YOUR MP600 DRIVES ASAP because when you first get a warning you may not have much time left to start backing up as transfer speeds drop! It also illustrates why it's wise to have multiple drives in case one fails.
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Monday, January 03, 2022
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones Part 2 of 2 / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Happy Near Year!
This is the concluding part two of my extensive analysis on the state of the AI tech stocks highlighting several stocks trading at bargain basement levels despite the FOMO rally in the face of the countdown to Financial Crisis 2.0 during 2022.
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Monday, January 03, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: 2022 Can Be Your Best Year Ever / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
Starting with a clean slate in 2022, you can make it the best year you ever have in the market.
It's time to start focusing on what is truly important in the market.
If what you have been doing until now is not working, isn't it time to broaden your understanding of how the market truly works?
With the market likely going to provide us another buying opportunity in early 2022, you may want to set yourself up before we begin the next major rally to 5500SPX.
If you have followed me during the last decade that I have been writing on Seeking Alpha, you would know that we have made some calls that have seemed absolutely ridiculous at the time. But, nevertheless, the market followed the path we laid out no matter how crazy it may have seemed.
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