Monday, November 07, 2016

The Markets and the US Election Outcome No One Is Thinking About / Stock-Markets / US Presidential Election 2016

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : I’ve been saying that the Fed is more hawkish than people think for quite a while, but nobody is listening to me.

This is not a good Fed. They aren’t making decisions on a predictive, forward-looking basis. They are very concerned about optics—how things look. And to them, right now the optics of having Fed funds at 0.375% with unemployment at 5% are very bad.

Monday, November 07, 2016

Corporate Earning reports Have Turned into a Dangerous Shell Game / Companies / Corporate Earnings

By: John_Mauldin

You own stocks for two reasons. You either think the shares will gain value or give you dividend income, or both.

Neither will happen unless the company is making money or at least has the plausible hope of making money someday. Earnings reports are important because they tell us whether that’s happening.

Monday, November 07, 2016

Thanks to Obamacare, US Government Debt Is Worse Than You Think / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

You’re probably aware that the US budget deficit jumped to $590 billion for fiscal 2016. What you might not know is that US government debt rose by $1.4 trillion last fiscal year. That difference between the deficit and debt increases is a huge number.

What did we spend that additional $800 billion on?

My friends Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Asset Management can answer that question and more. Using current CBO projections and the trend in off-budget debt, Lacy and Van estimate that US government debt could grow by an additional $13 trillion in the next 10 years (by 2025). That would put total debt at $33 trillion and push to 150% debt-to-GDP.

Monday, November 07, 2016

WIll Under Political Pressure FBI Director James Comey AGAIN Reopen Hillary Clinton Emails Investigation? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The FBI tends to flip flop its stance every 10 days on the Hillary Clinton classified documents stored on a private email server saga, depending who is putting the FBI under political pressure at anyone time. So the next date to watch is November the 17th when James Comey could once more be expected to make a statement that oops we did find something after all in the 650,000 emails on Weiner's laptop so the investigation is once more reopening.

Monday, November 07, 2016

Trump Panic, Hillary Polls Surge, Betting Markets Crash and the BrExit Swing States / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The wild manic US election roller coaster ride is almost over with just over 30 hours to go until the polls open 6am Tuesday, though approximately 1/3rd of voters have already voted early so the campaigns on the final day will be busy blitzkrieging those swing states that have not had early voting which means Pensylvania, New Hampshire and Michigan and of course Florida are all set to be bombarded with more campaign visits.

Monday, November 07, 2016

Time To Short the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The dollar rally has been led in hopes of the FED tightening rates in December of 2016. While most of the other developed nations are still struggling with low inflation, the U.S.Government provided data that has been largely supportive of a rate hike.

The sharp rise in the dollar had taken it to extreme levels against the EURO, as shown in the Bloomberg chart below.The reversal was due, as evidenced by the RSI, however, the fall has been more vicious and looks like a correction, rather than a mere pullback.

Monday, November 07, 2016

Stock Market Countdown: An E-Wave Perspective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

"In order to understand where we are now and where are going, we must first understand where we have been." ~ Professor Jennifer Cunningham

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." ~ George Santayana

"History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme." ~ Mark Twain

Going back and reevaluating the wave counts going back to the founding of our country, I realized I had made a mistake and that is we are in the final 5th of a 5th of a 5th which, itself, may be a millennial 3rd wave going back through European statistics to around 1000 C.E.

Monday, November 07, 2016

BATR 2016 US Election Editorial / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: BATR

Campaigning fatigue has drained the country of common sense judgment as emotional psychosis engulfs much of the population. It is long overdue for the citizens of this once great Republic to look directly in the mirror. Ask yourself, what is your own personal responsibility in allowing society to become a moral cesspool? The United States is no longer GOOD. The conduct and crimes of the ruling elite are unconscionable.

Sunday, November 06, 2016

Gold Stocks Proprietary Cycle Indicator Remains Down / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in gold and silver, noting the markets will be volatile until the election is over.

Sunday, November 06, 2016

SPX Stock Market Downtrend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started at SPX 2126. After a bounce to SPX 2133 on Monday the market steadily declined to 2084 by Friday. There were three 10+ point rallies along the way, but they were all sold the same, or following, day. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.7%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 2.9%. On the economic front positive reports outpaced negative ones. On the downtick: Chicago PMI, auto sales, construction spending, the ADP, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims increased. On the uptick: personal income/spending, the PCE, ISM services, factory orders, monthly payrolls, the Q4 GDP estimate, plus the trade balance and unemployment rate improved. Next week will be highlighted by the Election.

Sunday, November 06, 2016

American Election and the Fall of the Fourth Estate – The Price of Bribery and Corruptions / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Dr_R_M_Mathew

The actual causalities of the American Presidential Election are not the Democracy or the Judiciary, but the so called Experts, the Academics, the Lead Media Persons and above all the Fourth Estate. For the last three years, Hillary Clinton has been bribing almost all American and International Print and Electronic Medias, Top Media persons and Academics to project her as the embodiment of all human virtues and the most suitable candidate for the American Presidential Election.

Sunday, November 06, 2016

Hillary, Trump, Polls and BrExit Swing States - Electoral College Analysis US Election Forecast / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With just 2 days to go until the polls open and Hillary Clinton is continuing to pull away in the national opinion polls by building on yesterdays lead of +1.6% to currently stand at +1.7% as the average of recent national opinion polls that compares against Friday's +1.3%, Thursdays 1.7% and Wednesdays +2.2%. So Trumps FBI emails surge is definitely over going into the final 2 days of campaigning which suggests that polls parity is unlikely.

Sunday, November 06, 2016

Markets Not Much Action but Don’t Get Careless / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

The payrolls report came in pretty much as expected and thus seems to be a non-event for the most part.

The Dollar is slightly weaker, bonds are higher, oil is lower and gold is a tad higher. Mining shares are showing weakness today.

I honestly do not think we are going to get much in the way of any CONSISTENT direction in these major markets ( with the exception of crude oil) until after the election results become clear.

Sunday, November 06, 2016

A Most Important Gold Ratio Chart… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight is a good night to post one of the ratio combo charts we’ve been following for a very long time , which compares the TLT:GLD ratio to the GLD. Below the ratio chart is a ten year weekly bar chart for GLD. There are many ways to analyze a ratio combo chart like this which can help one look for the intermediate to longer term trends.

Sunday, November 06, 2016

US Election Uncertainty Now Influencing Gold & Silver Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

Most of us consider this year’s presidential election as the wildest and most unpredictable we’ve ever seen, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the markets. Gold and silver spent most of the past three weeks going nowhere fast. Between Oct. 6th and Oct. 27th silver traded within ten cents of $17.60/oz. – an extraordinarily tight range. Precious metals generally thrive on uncertainty, but the markets have been unfazed and instead have appeared to be paralyzed.

Sunday, November 06, 2016

Breaking News : Donald Trump Assassination Attempt / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Within seconds of Donald Trump appearing on stage in Nevada, he was rushed off the stage by the secret service as others in the crowd could be seen apparently wrestling a man to the ground, who was later escorted out by armed police.

Saturday, November 05, 2016

Hillary Halts Trumps Polls Surge, But Trump Advance Continues in BrExit Swing States / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With just 3 days to go until the polls open Hillary Clinton has finally managed to halt the Trump FBI emails polls surge as the average of recent national opinion polls show a small widening of Hillary's lead over Trump to +1.6% from +1.3% yesterday, against 1.7% the day before and +2.2% on the 1st of November, that compares against +6% of less than 2 weeks ago.

Saturday, November 05, 2016

More Weakness Ahead for Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The gold stocks continue to correct their epic +150% rebound that began in January and ran into the summer. Last week it was the poor relative strength in the miners that hinted the correction had more to go in both time and price. This week, it was the miners failure at a confluence of resistance, even with Gold trading above $1300, that argued for more weakness ahead. While most of the damage has already been done, our work argues for more weakness before a buying opportunity.

Saturday, November 05, 2016

Bitcoin Trading Alert: Bitcoin at Long-term Resistance / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

In short: no speculative positions.

Bitcoin is now getting more attention as the currency has shot up in the last couple of weeks. In an article on Bloomberg,we read:

It's happening again. Bitcoin has locked step with gold and taken to the skies as uncertainty about the U.S. election increases volatility in global markets. It is, in short, acting as a haven.

(…)

Aside from facing obsolescence and the threat of competing with actual currencies, the volatility of Bitcoin has to be off-putting for serious investors. During any given period, the digital currency swings three to five times more violently than gold, hardly the behavior expected from a haven asset.

Saturday, November 05, 2016

Mosul, US Elections, and Other Madness / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: David_Galland

Dear Parader,

I’m pleased to report that the shakedown cruise on my latest folly, Bad Brothers Wine Experience, has come to an end, and we are now officially open regular business hours.

Over the last week, we welcomed our first guests off the street (from London, no less) and discovered just how much goes into running a wine bar/restaurant, thanks to upwards of 250 people passing through the front door.

Happily, our guests seem to have enjoyed the place, helping us quickly zip from the 49th to the 9th highest-ranked restaurant in Cafayate on Trip Advisor, a good start.