Friday, November 12, 2021
How Strange! Gold Rises on Strong Payrolls! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
US economy added 531,000 jobs in October, surpassing expectations. Gold reacted… in a bullish way, and jumped above $1,800!The October nonfarm payrolls came surprisingly strong. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added 531,000 jobs last month, much above the expectations (MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted 450,000 added jobs). So, it’s a nice change from the last two disappointing reports. What’s more, the August and September numbers were significantly revised up – by 235,000 combined. Let’s keep in mind that we also have the additions of 1,091,000 in July and 366,000 in August (after an upward revision).
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Friday, November 12, 2021
FREE TRADE FREE SHARE - What Stock Will You Get? IBM? Apple? AMD? Nvidia? Microsoft? Maybe Intel? / Personal_Finance / Investing 2021
By: HGR
Open an account with FREE TRADE, fund it with just £1 and you get a FREE SHARE worth between £3 and £200! Woooaaah! Apple? AMD? IBM? Nvidia? Microsoft even? If not what about Intel?
Find out you could actually expect to get for your FREE SHARE for FREE TRADE!
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Thursday, November 11, 2021
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist - China Crisis, Stagflation, Stocks Bubble, Reverse Repo... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.
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Thursday, November 11, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 3 of my extensive analysis that maps out the stock markets trend into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022
Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season
Part 2 - Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
Contents:
- Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
- Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
- US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
- US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
- Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
- Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
- FED Balance Sheet
- Weakening Stock Market Breadth
- Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
- FANG Stocks
- Margin Debt
- Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
- Dow Annual Percent Change
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
- Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Short-term Seasonal Trend
- US Presidential Cycle
- Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
- 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
- Investing fundamentals
- IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
- Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
- CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
- Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
- Aukus Ruckus
Thursday, November 11, 2021
Stock Market Great Profitable Runs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 pause goes on, and bonds support more of it to come. Tech keeps thus far the high ground gained, but value is showing signs of very short-term weakness – and yields haven‘t retreated yesterday really. The correct view of the stock market action is one of microrotations unfolding in a weakening environment – one increasingly fraught with downside risks.
To be clear, I‘m not looking for a sizable correction, but a very modest one both in time and price. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher over time still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps in the medium term.
The dollar though isn‘t putting much pressure on stock, commodity or precious metals prices at the moment – such were my yesterday‘s words:
(…) when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged.
For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating.
And that‘s what precious metals would be increasingly sniffing out. Commodities are joining in the post-taper celebrations, and my prior Tuesday‘s market assessments are coming to fruition one by one. Oil is swinging higher and hasn‘t topped, copper is coming back to life, and cryptos aren‘t in a waiting mood either.
Thursday, November 11, 2021
Gold Breakout Confirmed... Almost / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Gold finished solidly above the $1,800/oz level on Friday, marking the yellow metal’s best weekly close since late August. More importantly, gold may be breaking out of a larger consolidation pattern that has been in force since prices peaked in August of last year.
Prices edged above the descending triangle line – although perhaps not convincingly so.
If the breakout is real, then we should see a follow-through advance this week to confirm it.
Interpreting chart patterns is more of an art than a science. Any given technical setup, whether bullish or bearish in appearance, can fail.
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Thursday, November 11, 2021
Sentiment Speaks: How Wrong You Are Mr. Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
So, I decided to read yet another article calling for a market crash. Needless to say, the body of the article offered nothing of true substance upon which I cared to comment, and I was saddened by the several minutes of time I wish I could have gotten back. That is, until I read the comments section, which provided me fodder to write this article.
“News flash, that bull market ended last year. We're in the beginning stages of a new one.”
“That crash is still going on, the market just hasn't caught up with it yet”
“Article #512 on SA in 2021 about the upcoming crash. Eventually, they will all be right. I do nothing different ever. I believe in my investments and I ride out crashes and corrections. Have cash available to buy which are wealth building opportunities. I always feel sorry for the poor panic sellers who miss out on so many gains because they are out of the market. It is only a loss if you sell. And, the market will come back and make new highs 100% of the time. This is an historical fact.”
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Thursday, November 11, 2021
Interest Rate Normalization is Impossible / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
Stagflation is undermining the U.S. economy, and that poses a huge problem for Mr. Powell and his merry band of money printers.Inflation is running at a pace that is just about 3x faster than real GDP growth--a figure the Fed can no longer ignore. This is why Mr. Powell had no choice but to announce at November's FOMC press conference that the Fed would reduce its purchases of MBS and Treasuries by $15 billion each month starting this month. Therefore, officially pushing the economy further towards the edge of the monetary cliff. Meaning, the amount of new monetary creation will go from a record $120 billion per month to zero by the middle of 2022.
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Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist - The China Syndrome / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist
- China housing market in distress - CHECK
- China's economy slowing - CHECK
- US Economy slowing - CHECK
- Brewing STAGFLATION - Slowing economy coupled with rising prices - CHECK
- Black Swan Event - Crisis at the ports - CHECK
- Economic Models busted - Workers refusing to return to work not factored into Economic models - CHECK
- REVERSE REPO MARKET - Banks desperate to swap deposit liabilities for T-bills collateral so as to lower capital requirements which has drained the capital markets of over $1 trillion - CHECK
- STOCK MARKET BUBBLE - Valuations have lost touch with reality - CHECK
- FED TAPERING into a Weakening Economy - Huge Risk of a valuation reset - CHECK
- IMPEMDING DOOM! - The relentless march of the Climate Change Mega-trend where all that the worlds leaders did at COP26 was Blah Blah Blah - CHECK!
Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Stock Market Long and Short-term Seasonal Trends / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
SEASONAL ANALYSIS
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that tends to resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.
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Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The basic pattern is for falling yields to be bearish for stocks whilst rising yields are bullish for stocks. The reason being is that investors are selling bonds to buy stocks hence yields and stocks rise.
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Wednesday, November 10, 2021
USD Index: Are New Milestones in the Cards? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While the greenback's failed breakout on Nov. 4th may seem bearish, it faced a similar situation in August and October, only to recover and achieve new highs.
After the USD Index’s negative response to the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Oct. 28, I warned on Oct. 29 that dollar bears were unlikely to celebrate for much longer. I wrote:
Based on the rather random comment during the conference, the traders panicked and bought the EUR/USD, which triggered declines in the USD Index (after all, the EUR/USD is the largest component of the USDX).
Was the breakout to new 2021 lows invalidated? No. The true breakout was above the late-March highs (the August highs also served as a support level, but the March high is more important here) and it wasn’t invalidated.
What was the follow-up action? At the moment of writing these words, the USDX is up and trading at about 93.52, which is just 0.07 below the August high in terms of the closing prices. Consequently, it could easily be the case that the USD Index ends today’s session (and the week) back above this level.
Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Calling the Precious Metals Bull / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 paused to a degree, but bonds didn‘t – we‘re far from a peak. That though doesn‘t mean a brief correction (having a proper look at the chart, sideways consolidation not reaching more than a precious couple of percentage points down) won‘t arrive still this month. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps.
And when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged.
For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating.
Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Best Crypto to Buy Now for Bull Market Mania 2022, Alt Coins for X10 to X100 / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: N_Walayat
Crypto Mania 2022 is about to begin, forget Bitcoin for it will be Alt Coins that will X10 and X100, so find out how you too can ride the crypto gravy train that already has some Alt Coin's X10ing, implying 2022 expectations to 100x!
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Tuesday, November 09, 2021
Dow Stock Market ELLIOTT WAVESÂ Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
ELLIOTT WAVES
Every high is the fifth of the fifth of the fifth! until the market fails to follow through and on we march with the next high then the next high, which is why I take Elliott Wave Theory with a mountain of salt.
My Elliott Wave pattern of Feb 2009 has proven remarkably accurate (as did the pattern before that), see being skeptical works! It's when people think they have found the holy grail when things start to go wrong!
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Tuesday, November 09, 2021
Answered: The most confusing question in Crypto / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Submissions
By Chris Reilly,
Executive Editor, RiskHedge When you buy a crypto…
What are you really investing in?
In today’s special edition of the RiskHedge Report, we’ll set aside the gains cryptos have been handing out of 6,000%, 8,000%, and 12,000%…
To answer this basic but crucial question.
***
Tuesday, November 09, 2021
Top Three Benefits You Should Know About Solar Integrated Panels / Housing-Market / Solar Energy
By: Submissions
It’s one sure fact that most of us are already aware of: more property owners are choosing to have solar panels, and most of these property owners are also opting for integrated or in-roof panel systems. If you have been thinking about it for some time now, you may have your questions. But if you would like nothing more than to produce energy and not rely too heavily on the grid, your solar installation is worth the investment. But what about in-roof or integrated solar panels – are they worth it as well? Here are the top three benefits you should know about solar integrated panels.
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Tuesday, November 09, 2021
How to hold up the world / Politics / Social Issues
By: Michael_T_Bucci
As Thanksgiving in America approaches, a time for reflection on the deeper meanings of friendship, family and colleagues who have come into our lives - some who we like and others we dislike - we remind ourselves that underneath the masks and roles we play on the great stage of life we are all human beings. We all need oxygen, sun, food and, most importantly, we need validation for who we are, what we believe and acknowledgment for help we give others.
As we give thanks to those who have given meaning to us, we shouldn’t ignore the perfect strangers. In that light, I thank Market Oracle and its editor, Nadeem Walayat, for providing its readers this website; for providing a platform for astute thinkers and analysts to showcase their expertise. Thank you.
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Tuesday, November 09, 2021
Stock Market Bullish Trend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached but appears to have been only an intermediate target. Higher levels should now be reached before an important top is struck.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Tuesday, November 09, 2021
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow has barely had any significant correction in now approaching a year, chugging along the upper resistance trend line for the past 6 months.
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