Wednesday, December 15, 2021
AI Predicts Risks of Stock Market CRASH, Last Signal Was in Late Feb 2020. / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
My Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) has been triggered as of Fridays close with a reading of 103.4% where a reading of at least 100% equals SWITCHED ON for the first time since late Feb 2020 when it was triggered with a reading of 112%.
Contents:
What is the CI18?
CI18 Trigger Feb 2020
Existing Stock Market Trend Forecast
Stock Market VIX
Stock Market December Trend
OMICRON THE STRAW THAT BROKE THE CAMELS BACK!
MUTED SANTA RALLY
The Alibaba Stock Market
ARKK Garbage
Stocks Bear Market of 2022 May Have Started EARLY!
Facebook $301 Buying level achieved.
Recession 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Crypto FLASH CRASH Early Christmas Present
Wednesday, December 15, 2021
Another Stock Market Inflation Twist / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 gave up premarket gains, and closed on a weak note – driven by tech while value pared the intraday downswing somewhat. Market breadth still deteriorated, though – but credit markets didn‘t crater. Stocks look more cautious than bonds awaiting tomorrow‘s Fed, which is a good sign for the bulls across the paper and real assets. Sure, the ride is increasingly getting bumpy (and will get so even more over the coming weeks), but we haven‘t topped in spite of the negative shifts mentioned yesterday.
The signs appear to be in place, pointing to a limited downside in the pre-FOMC positioning, but when the dust settles, more than a few markets are likely to shake off the Fed blues. I continue doubting the Fed would be able to keep delivering on its own hyped inflation fighting projections – be it in faster taper or rate raising. Crude oil is likewise just hanging in there and ready – the Fed must be aware of real economy‘s fragility, which is what Treasuries are in my view signalling with their relative serenity. We‘ve travelled a long journey from the Fed risk of letting inflation run unattented, to the Fed making a policy mistake in tightening the screws too much.
Wednesday, December 15, 2021
US Fed Interest Rate Actions 1999 to Present – What’s Next? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I find it interesting that so much speculation related to the US Federal Reserve drives investor concern and trends. In my opinion, the US Federal Reserve has been much more accommodating for the global economy after the 2008-09 US Housing Market crash. The new US Bank Stress Tests and Capital Requirements have allowed the US to move away from risk factors that may currently plague the global markets. What do I mean by this statement?
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Wednesday, December 15, 2021
Insights into a "Remarkable" NASDAQ Stock Market Development / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: EWI
Here's what usually happens in the stock market when "the troops abandon the generals"
You've probably heard the phrase: "Appearances can be deceiving."
In other words, it's usually wise to "take a closer look" because the truth may not be obvious.
This applies to various circumstances of life -- even the stock market.
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Monday, December 13, 2021
Act NOW to Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is the concluding part 2 of 2 of my analysis that explains why 'Transitory' Inflation is about to become permanent and some pointers of what one should do to protect ones wealth from the stealth inflation theft of purchasing power. This analysis formed part of my in-depth housing market analysis in progress which has mushroomed beyond my original planned trend forecast for UK house prices which now encompasses an analysis of the state of play of most of world!. So in the interests's of timeliness my stocks analysis is being posted separately ahead of my housing market analysis as will be the case for future analysis form now on.
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Monday, December 13, 2021
Breaking down the world of decentralized finance (DeFi) / Stock-Markets / DeFi
By: Stephen_McBride
Middlemen rule traditional finance. Loan officers at banks decide whether to give you money. We have to deal with stockbrokers, mortgage brokers, and insurance brokers.
DeFi is banking without the bankers. It’s a whole new financial system built on Ethereum’s (ETH) blockchain.
Blockchain’s key innovation is automating trust between strangers. This is extremely powerful. It means we no longer have to rely on financial middlemen to buy stocks or lend money.
DeFi replaces bankers with software. This software is built and managed by a community of individuals on the blockchain, spread across the world.
Monday, December 13, 2021
Gold Stuck Between High Inflation and Strong Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation supports gold, the expected Fed’s reaction to price pressure – not. Since gold ended November with a small gain, what will December bring?I have good and bad news. The good is that the price of gold rose 2% in November. The bad –is that the price of gold rose 2% in November. It depends on the perspective we adopt. Given all the hawkish signals sent by the Fed and all the talk about tapering of quantitative easing and the upcoming tightening cycle, even a small increase is an admirable achievement.
However, if we focus on the fact that US consumer inflation rose in October to its highest level in 30 years, and that real interest rates have stayed deeply in negative territory, gold’s inability to move and stay above $1,800 looks discouraging.
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Monday, December 13, 2021
Gold Holding Up as Cryptos Get Hammered / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
As Bitcoin made new all-time highs in recent weeks, an increasing number of investors referred to it as the “new gold.”
Sure, Bitcoin and other digital currencies may have some of the same potential benefits as gold, being alternative stores of value that exist outside the banking system. Cryptos are a far cry from hard money, however, and recent price action may be indicative of why.
This last weekend, Bitcoin prices were hammered. Bitcoin declined from just under $57,000 to a swing low of just over $46,000. That is a $10k drop in a matter of days!
Monday, December 13, 2021
World's Best FREE Home Christmas Tree Gets Decorated! / Personal_Finance / Money Saving
By: Eliza_Walayat
This is probably the world's best Home FREE Christmas TREE! Here enjoy watching it going up for Christmas 2021.
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Monday, December 13, 2021
What I Got Wrong about 2021’s Biggest Stock Market Story / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
There’s going to be a lot of disappointed kids…I asked my barber what present his son wanted this Christmas.
“A PlayStation 5… but he might as well ask for gold dust,” he said.
Parents are scrambling to get their hands on Sony’s latest game console.
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Sunday, December 12, 2021
BUY APPLE Stock at DIscount / Companies / Apple
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apple's earnings report was okay, it's basically a giant corp that is experiencing slowing growth which will reflected in a gradual lowering of it's price earnings multiple over time from the present P/E of 26.9. The 4% discount from $152 to $146 was not enough to encourage me to even consider buying any Apple stock despite plans to do so.
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Sunday, December 12, 2021
How to Trade Crypto's on Binance, Set Buy and Sell Limit Orders / Personal_Finance / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Following requests from Patrons, here is a video that shows how to place buy and sell market orders and set limit orders at more favourable entry prices and Sell limits to take profits on higher prices.
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Sunday, December 12, 2021
AMAZON Christmas SCAMS WARNING - Buyers Beware. Always CHECK What You Buy / ConsumerWatch / Shopping
By: HGR
Tis the season for Amazon SCAMS! What is wrong with Amazon?? About 1 in 6 of the items I buy tend to turn out to be SCAMS! Some scams are less obvious than others i.e. I bought a WD Blue drive and was sent a 10 year old HGSTR drive with a Blue label stuck on it.
Today's scam delivery was more obvious, I paid for 60 TEPE Easypick Dental Picks and instead they delivered just 24! Looking at the Amazon comments show this supplier does this on a regular basis with numerous customers.
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Saturday, December 11, 2021
BUY Amazon Stock at a 5% DIscount / Companies / Amazon
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Amazon - 5% Discount
Traded down from $3450 to a low of $3270 on a bad earnings report, it should have fallen a lot more, but investors seem content to buy a company trading on a PE of 68. There is a market disconnect here. so I am lowering my buying level for Amazon from $3020 to $2600, and even that is probably still too high for what it is..
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Saturday, December 11, 2021
What Happens to the Stock Market After a Bullish Stampede? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The bulls pumped up the market, but with fundamentals deteriorating and corporations largely responsible for the spike, regular investors will be left holding the bag.
With investors betting on a Santa Clause rally despite the deteriorating fundamentals, the S&P 500 helped the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior mining stocks) outperform on Dec. 7. However, with short-covering and corporate buybacks primarily responsible for the daily spike, another ‘Minsky Moment’ could be on the horizon.
To explain, I wrote on Nov. 19:
While European markets have largely ignored the recent coronavirus spikes, a sharp sell-off could be the spark that lights the S&P 500’s correction. To explain, the DAX 30 Index (Germany) and the CAC 40 Index (France) both closed slightly lower on Nov. 18. However, prior to Nov. 18, the DAX 30 had closed in the green for 13 of the last 15 trading days, and one-upping its European counterpart, the CAC 40 had closed in the green for 15 of the last 16 trading days.
On top of that, the CAC 40 had an RSI (Relative Strength Index) north of 80, while the DAX 30 had an RSI north of 75. As a result, both indices are materially overbought at a time when Germany is implementing new restrictions. Thus, if a Minsky Moment strikes in Europe, don’t be surprised if the negativity cascades across the Atlantic.
Saturday, December 11, 2021
Inflationary Hubris, the Fed & Gold: Can Inflation Actually Be Good for Everyday Americans? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses Fed actions and how they affect precious metals.
I had thought that prior to this week, I had seen pretty much everything when it comes to the financial press shoveling out Wall Street “spin” in order to proper up the markets prior to the end-of-year bonus-calculating period. I was wrong. The most widely watched financial news medium in the world is CNBC, the very place where the phrase “talking heads” found its origin and the place where, during the dotcom boom of the 1990’s, former Trump Presidential Advisor Larry “Strong-Dollar-I-Hate-Gold” Kudlow would huddle with partner in crime Jim Cramer in a constant lovefest praising the second-largest financial bubble in history.
Kudlow, being a Trump supporter, can no longer show his Republican face in public while Jim Cramer recently tweeted out his esteemed opinion that the U.S. military should enforce the vaccine mandate, ever-ignorant of the U.S. constitution and of the entire concept of “Freedom of Choice.”
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Saturday, December 11, 2021
Has Bitcoin Crypto Mania Finally Run Its Course? / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: EWI
Here's a high-profile parallel between tech- and crypto-mania
When a company that's part of a major financial trend buys the naming rights to a professional sports stadium or arena, watch out!
History suggests that such a prominent move might be a sign that the fortunes of that company are about to dramatically change.
For instance, back in 1999-2000, technology shares were all the rage and one of the "highest of the dot-com high flyers," as the Wall Street Journal put it, was CMGI. It was the best performing U.S. stock from 1995 to 1999.
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Saturday, December 11, 2021
Socionomics the Key to Predicting Trends in Culture, Business, Politics and More / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
Hi,
Have you heard of socionomics?
Socionomics is a budding field that uses trends in stock prices to predict and prepare for trends in business, the economy, politics, pop culture, polarization, societal health and much more.
It's an exciting perspective with (near) limitless practical application.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
BUY IBM Stock at a 20% DIscount / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
IBM - 20% Discount
IBM traded down form $142 to $118.3, complicated due to the split off of 20% of their business which was distributed on 3rd of November. Nevertheless those who bought IBM on the drop grabbed a bargain for they get 1 Kyndryl share for every 5 IBM shares held by close of 26th October. Kyndryl currently trades at $25, which equates to $5 per IBM share. So current price of IBM stock price is $123.6 plus $5 to arrive at $128.6 per IBM share. I had originally planned to sell Kyndryl, but given that the stock is trading down 50% form $50 I don't see much point of doing so right now so will hold for the time being.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
3 Stocks To Watch As The Lithium Boom Kicks Into High Gear / Companies / Lithium
By: OilPrice_Com
A boom in electric vehicles is expected to drive a phenomenal amount of demand for lithium, but that’s just the beginning.We’ve set out to solve global climate change, and that means electrifying absolutely everything.
It means a potential boom in electric vehicles, with BloombergNEF expecting global sales of sales to hit 5.6 million units by the end of this year.
It means a boom in energy storage solutions.
But we may not have enough metal to build it all. As a result, the hunt for battery metals has reached fever pitch, and lithium could be a big beneficiary.
We think a strong portfolio to play lithium should cover this segment from several angles, including rallying the biggest EV players, disruptive mining technology in the lithium space, and the world’s largest lithium miner.
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