Saturday, February 13, 2016
Potential Stocks Bear Market Uptrend Underway / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Tony_Caldaro
Another wild week! The market started the week at SPX 1880. After a gap down opening on Monday the market dropped to SPX 1828, but reversed course in the afternoon. By Wednesday it turned slightly positive for the week when hitting SPX 1882. Thursday, however, started off with a gap down opening as the market hit a new downtrend low at SPX 1810. By late Thursday into Friday the market was rallying back up again, and ended the week at SPX 1865. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.10%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%, and the DJ World index was -2.70%. Economic reports for the week were biased negatively again. On the uptick: retail sales, business inventories, GNP, plus the budget and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: wholesale inventories, export/import prices, consumer sentiment, investor sentiment and the WLEI. Next week, after a Monday holiday, we get reports on Industrial production, FOMC minutes, the Housing market and it’s Options expiration.
Saturday, February 13, 2016
Seasonal Gold Price Correction on the Way / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Submissions
Goldvybe writes: Not much has changed since our gold correction commentary post on the 10th (here) except that gold had spiked up to $1263 on Thursday after global equities weakness and continued fears about European banks.
The fib retracements have stayed pretty much the same except now moving up a bit. For the most part, our analysis has not changed as we still anticipate a move lower from the seasonal February high into a seasonal low (March-April) of between $1130-$1150.
Saturday, February 13, 2016
Gold’s Macrocosm: The Planets Align / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Gary_Tanashian
We introduced the graphical view of the preferred counter-cyclical environment for gold and especially the gold stock sector in July: Macrocosm. We have updated the view several times since at NFTRH.com, with the macro backdrop getting more and more supportive of the gold sector over the last half a year.
Saturday, February 13, 2016
SPX Challenging its Orthodox Broadening Top Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX at the hourly level is still challenging its Orthodox Broadening Top formation. Earlier I had reported that I was expecting two Primary Pivot days. The first was Wednesday where SPX made the Wave B high at 1881.60. The second was today, where it appears to be making a Wave [ii] high that may be complete at 1864.28.
Saturday, February 13, 2016
Gold New Bull Market on Track / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Last week we focused on the gold stocks. There was more initial evidence of a new bull market there than in Gold. However, Thursday Gold erased some doubts as it rocketed above $1200/oz and to as high as $1264/oz before settling a bit lower. That move puts Gold's recovery on par with those following past major lows and offers greater confirmation that a new bull market is underway.
Saturday, February 13, 2016
HUI Gold Stocks …Meet Me at The Bottomz Inn ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Rambus_Chartology
This is the Question on Everyone’s mind .
Earlier this week we looked at the expanding triangle as a possible reversal pattern as it was testing the top rail with a beakout gap. The next two days saw the HUI decline back down to the top of the double bottom hump at 139 where it found support. Yesterdays price action took out the top rail of the expanding triangle again. Today the HUI backtested the top rail around the 155 area and is bouncing. There is no doubt the PM complex is overbought but we now have two possible reversal patterns in play. The double bottom which was the first pattern that showed itself and now the expanding triangle which has an odd number of reversal points, five, which makes it a reversal pattern instead of a consolidation pattern.
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Saturday, February 13, 2016
Is Deutsche Bank the Next Lehman Brothers? / Companies / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Submissions
Nathan McDonald writes: Has the crash begun? The similarities between the current market environment and those seen in the 2008 economic crisis are scary to say the least. Investors are panicking and for good reason - signs that another Lehman-style crisis may be on the horizon.
Deutsche Bank is the one in question. This German banking powerhouse has had its liquidity called into question and is now on the fence, being attacked from all sides as article after article is released pointing to the dangers the bank now finds itself in.
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Friday, February 12, 2016
Is This the Debt Bubbles Last Rattle? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2016
By: Raul_I_Meijer
What we see happening today is why we called our news overview the “Debt Rattle” 8 years ago. The last gasps of a broken system ravished by the very much cancer-like progress of debt. Yes, it took longer than it should have, and than we thought. But that’s pretty much irrelevant, unless you were trying to get rich off of the downfall of your own world. Always a noble goal.
There’s one reason for the delay only: central bank hubris. And now the entire shebang is falling to bits. That this would proceed in chaotic ways was always a given. People don’t know where to look first or last, neither central bankers nor investors nor anyone else.
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Friday, February 12, 2016
Gold Stocks Upside Targets / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks are rocketing higher again, multiplying wealth for smart contrarian traders who bought them low in recent months. But after such a blistering surge, traders are naturally wondering how much farther gold stocks can run. Is it time to realize gains, or buy aggressively for greater gains to come? This critical question can be answered by looking at fundamentally-derived gold-stock price targets.
Many analysts shy away from offering price targets, with good reason. Divining precise future outcomes in volatile markets is all but impossible. Prevailing stock prices result from the chaotic interplay between sentimental, technical, and fundamental drivers. And an effectively-infinite array of variables can affect each one, making forecasting stock prices a fool’s errand. Nevertheless, this exercise is absolutely necessary.
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Friday, February 12, 2016
Stock Market Observations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I am showing the larger charts because they display the big picture more clearly. It is now clear that Intermediate Waves (1) through (5) of Primary Wave [C] are A-B-C Waves and not impulsive in the strict sense. We would normally expect to see a clean 5-wave decline in Wave C. This is either a rare variation or an outright aberration. Which is it? I don’t know.
This has Elliott Wavers tied in knots, since an A-B-C move is normally corrective and in this case tells the Elliottician that the next move is a rally! In fact, most analysts would say that today’s decline is a Wave B-with- rally-to-follow. What no one else is watching is the natural resistance at the cycle Bottom at 1868.20 which has been stopping the retracement rallies all week long.
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Friday, February 12, 2016
Will Capital Controls Return? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2016
By: Dan_Amerman
The average person may have no interest in capital controls, but to rephrase a well-known saying, capital controls are interested in you. The residents of Greece found this out in 2015 when capital controls were imposed, and they could not legally send the money in their bank accounts out of the country.
Like the rest of the world, they had been encouraged to move their data to the Cloud, and their software to subscriptions, each of which required small monthly payments. But if all our data is in the Cloud and we can't pay to access it as a matter of law, because the money would have to leave the country - what can we do next?
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Friday, February 12, 2016
Looking For The Next Financial Crisis; Try Student Debt / Stock-Markets / Student Finances
By: Sol_Palha
"Calamities are of two kinds: misfortune to ourselves, and good fortune to others." ~ Ambrose Bierce
Student debt is increasing at the rate of almost $3000.00 per second; this is stunning considering that education tour system does not even rank in the top 10 globally ; we are ranked 18 out of 20. Worse yet, it indicates that colleges are simply forcing young individuals to take on mind-boggling amounts of debt in the hopes of landing a good job when they graduate. Getting a student loan is about as easy it was to get a loan during the booming housing market cycle and look how that story ended.
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Friday, February 12, 2016
Gold, Gold Stocks, and the End Game / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: DeviantInvestor
We have seen the bottom in the gold market and gold stocks.
Evidence:
- Examine the 30+ year chart of the monthly XAU (gold stock Index) to Gold ratio. You can see that the downtrend in the ratio has lasted about 20 years – since 1996. The ratio is now at all-time lows in the form of a contracting triangle. The triangle has been broken to the upside.
Friday, February 12, 2016
The Coming Silver Price Rally Will Be Fueled By A Crashing Dow / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Hubert_Moolman
It is good news for silver investors when significant nominal peaks of the Dow are formed. This is because significant nominal peaks in the price of silver tend to come after significant nominal peaks in the Dow. This has been the case for the last 90 years at least.
The two most significant nominal peaks of the Dow were in 1929 and 1973. Silver made a significant peak in 1935, about six years after the Dow's major peak in 1929. Again, in 1980, silver made a significant peak, about seven years after the Dow's major peak in 1973.
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Friday, February 12, 2016
Is the Gold Price Manipulated? Part2 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
One of the main arguments for the systematic suppression of the gold price says that governments and central banks try to stop gold being the canary in the inflationary mine. We have problems with this view.
First, there are many other indicators of inflation, like official indices (CPI, PPI, and PCEPI), inflation premiums embedded in Treasury prices, or oil and other commodity prices. Do central banks also suppress oil, copper and practically all commodities? We do not think so. The current bear market in gold and base metals is more connected with the strong U.S. dollar than with diligent manipulation.
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Friday, February 12, 2016
Gold Price Surges Another 7% This Week – Largest Gain Since 2008 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
Gold bullion jumped 4 percent yesterday to $1,244.20/oz, its biggest single-day percentage rally since 2013. For the week, gold is 7.2% higher which is its biggest weekly gain since the global financial crisis in 2008.
Friday, February 12, 2016
Canadian Dollar Now Even Less of a Haven from US Dollar Collapse Than Before / Currencies / Canadian $
By: Jeff_Berwick
In 2011, we posted an article entitled “The Canadian Dollar is No Haven from a US Dollar Collapse.” The point of the article was that Canada had almost no gold reserves and the only thing backing the Canadian dollar was the US dollar.
Canadians were quite smug, back then, with the Canadian dollar trading above par with the US dollar and we wanted to remind them that not only would the Canadian dollar not be a haven from a US dollar collapse, but the loonie would collapse before the US dollar, since nothing is backing it but the US dollar and Canada had no gold (amongst many other reasons).
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Friday, February 12, 2016
The Stock Market Dow Elevator; 18, 17, 16.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Doug_Wakefield
"Whatever the stock index, whatever the country, whatever the security, prices only rarely follow the predicted normal pattern. My student, Eugene Fama, investigated this for his doctoral thesis. Rather than examine the broad market index, he looked one by one at the thirty blue-chip stocks in the Dow. He found the same disturbing pattern; big price changes were far more common than the standard model allowed. Large changes, of more than five standard deviations from the average, happened two thousand times more often than expected. Under Gaussian rules, you should have encountered such drama only once every seven thousand years; in fact, the data showed, it happened once every three or four years." [The (Mis) Behavior of Markets (2004) World Renown mathematician Dr. Benoit Mandelbrot, pg 96]
Friday, February 12, 2016
T. Boone Pickens On Obama Oil Tax: "Dumbest Idea Ever" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The Obama administration's proposed $10.25 per barrel oil tax adds up to approximately $32 billion a year, and critics are coming out of the woodwork in defense of both the oil industry and end users who would foot the bill for transportation system reforms-but it may be a moot point since the effort will simply be killed off by Congress.
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Friday, February 12, 2016
Can the U.S. Fed Drop Interest Rates Below 0%? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: EWI
This question is not as preposterous as it may seem.
For the financial markets, the biggest event of the week starts tomorrow: On Wednesday and Thursday (Feb. 10-11) Fed chair Janet Yellen will appear before Congress to deliver her semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.
"It's huge." That's how one strategist put it this morning, in a CNBC interview about the importance of Yellen's testimony.
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