Monday, September 21, 2015
Stock Market New Downtrend Or Some More Short-Term Sideways Action? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, September 21, 2015
Gold Sentiment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
Before the intermediate cycle can top gold needs to rally far enough to stop all the calls for $1000 & $800 gold. There are still way too many traders expecting lower prices. The job of an intermediate rally is to clear that sentiment. As long as we keep seeing multiple comments about this being a bull trap (it may be) and traders should short the bounce then the bounce will continue. That’s what counter trend rallies do. They rally far enough to knock all of the shorts out of the market. Once that is complete then the next leg down can start.
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Monday, September 21, 2015
Blame America? No, Blame Neocons! / Politics / US Politics
Is the current refugee crisis gripping the European Union "all America's fault"? That is how my critique of US foreign policy was characterized in a recent interview on the Fox Business Channel. I do not blame the host for making this claim, but I think it is important to clarify the point.
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Monday, September 21, 2015
Why The Big Banks Want Higher Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
Something strange is happening in the banking business.
In theory, a low interest rate environment is good for banks because it allows them to borrow money for next to nothing and lend it to auto or home buyers for considerably more, making a nice fat spread.
And that’s pretty much how it’s been going. U.S. bank earnings were up 7% y-o-y in the second quarter, to a record $43 billion. Bank lending rose across the board from industrial to auto to mortgage loans, and delinquencies fell for the 21st consecutive quarter.
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Monday, September 21, 2015
Stock Market Intermediate Downtrend (Phase II) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market?
Intermediate trend - SPX is in the midst of an intermediate correction (at least).
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, September 21, 2015
Stock Market NYSE A/D Line “Death Crossover” / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Last month we wrote the following:
“The chart of the % of stocks above the 200 Price Moving Average (PMA) finally shows the 100 Daily Moving Average (white line) crossing the 200 DMA (green line). This is a technical “death-cross” The only indicator not in bearish agreement is the NYSE Advance/Decline line. When this indicator shows a similar 100/200 DMA crossover, I believe it will only be a matter of time, based on historic precedent, before an “official” bear market will be declared”.
Sunday, September 20, 2015
Pentagon Updating War Plans Against Russia / Politics / US Military
Sunday, September 20, 2015
R.I.P. Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
Andrew Snyder writes: I went to the doctor Friday morning. What a problem we have.
“How’s the pain? Do you want some pills for that?” he asked.
“No thanks, doc. Let’s just figure out what’s causing it.”
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Sunday, September 20, 2015
Stock Market End Run Smash Crash Looks Imminent... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
The market didn't waste any time "getting on with it" yesterday after the bearish action on the day of the Fed announcement. It fell, and hard. We are going to look at this carefully because what appears to be starting is a devastating "end run around the line" smash - if so a brutal plunge is just around the corner.
A few days back we were a little too accommodating in adjusting the upper boundary of the Pennant shown on the 3-month chart below when the index pushed out of the top of it. We shouldn't have and on this chart we are going back to our original Pennant boundaries, which is important as it enables us to define where the support is at the apex of the Pennant. As you will recall the upside breakout from the Pennant, on the basis of its original boundaries, was regarded with deep suspicion, and it appears to have been the product of manipulation - Fed buying to "paint the tape", especially as there was no such breakout in other markets like the London FTSE and Tokyo Nikkei, where a parallel Pennant had formed. If so then they may soon end up with egg on their faces.
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Sunday, September 20, 2015
How We'll Capitalize on Fed Cowardice / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
MoneyMorning.com Michael E. Lewitt writes: Markets delivered a resounding Bronx cheer to the Federal Reserve on Friday after that confederacy of dunces failed to raise interest rates at its highly anticipated, two-day September meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by 290 points (1.74%) while the S&P 500 followed by 32 points (1.62%) and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 67 points (1.32%).
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Sunday, September 20, 2015
Has the Fed Lost its Mojo? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
After 6 full years of zero rates and extreme pump-priming that flushed more than $10 trillion dollars into global markets, the Federal Reserve decided that even the slightest uptick in its benchmark Fed Funds rate would trigger enough destructive volatility in emerging markets that it would be better to postpone the rate hike until some unknown date in the future. The announcement that the FOMC planned to keep rates pegged at zero sent stocks briefly higher after which they fell sharply pushing global indices deep into the red.
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Sunday, September 20, 2015
Copper Bear Market Rally Underway / Commodities / Copper
Copper has rallied recently and I believe this to be the start of a significant bear rally. Let's analyse the technicals of the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
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Sunday, September 20, 2015
Stock Market Topped Thursday, Now What? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Last week, I predicted an important top for September 17 based on astrology. While I thought it would be a lower top, nonetheless, it was an important top caused by the FED: and as predicted, I said that they would not raise rates, but they did place something in the FED-speak that would cause the market to sell-off dramatically. That something was "no more QE". From late Thursday to late Friday, the SPX fell over 4%.
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Sunday, September 20, 2015
Europe Refugee Crisis, UK to Repatriate 120,000 Hungarian Economic Migrants Back to Hungary / Politics / European Union
Now if true such a policy would send political earthquakes throughout Europe if David Cameron had started to pull the plug on Eastern European mass economic migration that still continues. But of course its just not going to happen because the UK is a far more civilised nation than the likes of Hungary and its other eastern european brethren that have been showing their anti-european fascist credentials that would be home in Czar Putin's Russian empire than that which the European Union purports to be and what the people of Britain have been led to believe it be.
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Saturday, September 19, 2015
The No. 1 Factor Dragging Down Corporate Earnings / Companies / Corporate Earnings
Rachel Gearhart writes: It’s no secret that the broader market has been rough on investors these past few weeks.
For one thing, we’ve had to contend with that whole yuan fiasco, which sent the Dow plummeting more than 1,000 points.
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Saturday, September 19, 2015
How the Chinese Will Establish a New Financial World Order / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
Saturday, September 19, 2015
Roman Aqueducts and Modern Potholes Point to This Multi-trillion-Dollar Investor Opportunity / Companies / Infrastructure
MoneyMorning.com William Patalon writes: There is nothing new under the sun. – Ecclesiastes 1:9
I'm a sucker for those "impulse buy" periodicals you always see when you're standing in the checkout line at Wal-Mart, Target, or Wegmans.
No, I'm not talking about the credibility-bending "News of the World (WWII German U-Boat Surfaces in New York Harbor – Crew Believes They're Still at War)" or any of those celebrity-chasing rags ("Insert-Name-Here Enjoys Hot Night in Hot Tub While Spouse Is on Movie Location").
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Saturday, September 19, 2015
Stock Market Primary IV Preparing to End / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Another wild FOMC week. The market started the week at SPX 1961. After a pullback to SPX 1948 on Monday, the market rallied to 2004 just before the FED announcement. After they announced no change in the ZIRP the SPX hit 2008, dropped to 1988, rallied to 2021, then dropped to 1987, all within one hour. On Friday the market was greeted with a gap down opening and the SPX ended the week at 1958. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.05%, and the DJ World index was +0.20%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the uptick: retail sales, business inventories, the NAHB, building permits, leading indicators, plus weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: the NY/Philly FED, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, and the WLEI. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q2 GDP, Durable goods and more reports on Housing.
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Saturday, September 19, 2015
Gold And Silver - Ufa. Why It Matters But Does Not / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
To almost all Americans mentioning Ufa will bring a blank response. What is Ufa? None would ask, "Where is it?" for there has been no mention of it anywhere in the mainstream media. Does Ufa matter? Yes, but in this country it does not.
Here is a primer on understanding many acronyms the average American has no clue even of their existence. First of all, Ufa is not an acronym, it is the capital and administrative center of Bashkortostan Republic, Russia. It is one of the largest Russian cities with a population over one million people. It was founded in 1574. Now you know more than 99.9% of the average American, with just two sentences.
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Saturday, September 19, 2015
This Is What Needs To Happen For Crude Oil Prices To Stabilize / Commodities / Crude Oil
On September 10th the EIA reported a production decline in the Lower 48 -- essentially shale production -- of 208,000 BOPD. That is a staggeringly enormous number, approximately 10 percent of the estimated global over-supply. Additionally, it was a week-over-week number which makes it all the more impressive. Yet it received little attention through the week. Rather, Goldman Sachs was grabbing all the headlines with its $20 call on oil.
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