Tuesday, July 28, 2015

The Iran Nuclear Deal is Mostly about Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Browne

The recent nuclear non-proliferation agreement between Iran and the U.S. has created a firestorm debate in the Middle East and both sides of the Atlantic. While the deal is supposedly all about nuclear power and nuclear bombs, its practical implications are all about oil. But the conclusions we should make about its impact on the energy sector are far from clear. A ratification of the deal would allow Iran to make lucrative long term production and distribution contracts with foreign energy firms. However, freely flowing oil from Iran would add significant new oil supply into the world markets, disrupt U.S. plans to become an energy exporter, and could potentially put further downward pressure on prices.

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Stock Market Bulls Beware! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market

Intermediate trend - SPX may have started an intermediate correction

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.

Monday, July 27, 2015

Will Chinese Stock Market Crash Affect the US? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

US Equities are sliding following the overnight

Crash of the Chinese stock market. This is the second largest single day crash in Chinese stock market history as over 1500 companies are halted at limit down for the day. European stocks were bid lower, although of their lows for the day.

Monday, July 27, 2015

Crude Oil Price Under $48! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil extended losses after bearish Baker Hughes report. As a result, light crude lost 1.82% and hit a fresh multi-month low. Where will the commodity head next in the coming days?

Monday, July 27, 2015

Are We Seeing a Trend Reversal with U.S. Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Submissions

Frank Suess writes: In the second quarter, we saw a jump in yields across the board. The yield of 10-Year US Treasuries jumped from 1.9% to 2.4% over the course of the quarter, representing a yield increase of 50 bps. This led to a decline of almost 2% in the Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index. In Europe the development was much more dramatic; over the quarter, the Bloomberg German Sovereign Bond Index lost around 4.5% in value. This was due to an increase in the German 10-Year yield from 0.2% to 0.8% (60 bps). It is not completely clear what sparked the massive yield increase in Europe. It might have been a technical correction due to the very high prices bonds were trading at, increased risk aversion towards Europe due to the situation in Greece (Bill Gross even called shorting German bunds "the short of a lifetime"), or possibly aggressive short positions by some investors.

Monday, July 27, 2015

How to Know When the Gold Bear Market is Over / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com D.R. Barton, Jr writes: Gold’s hard-and-fast tumble below $1,100 an ounce last week means some investors may be tuning out the yellow metal or suffering from gold “burnout.”

But ignoring it is a huge mistake. It has been and always will be one of the best stores of value, and it's a crucial hedge against economic upheaval. It's a must-have holding.

Monday, July 27, 2015

Is the Stock Market Tide Turning? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Puru_Saxena

According to our methodology, the primary uptrend on Wall Street is still intact; however, we are starting to observe some troubling signs which suggest that we may be in the final innings of this bull market. 

You will recall that for several months now, we have been stating that this remains a very split market with only half of the sectors participating in the ongoing advance.  Accordingly, we have been suggesting that our readers only stay aligned with the leading stocks in the strongest areas and sectors. Given the price action of the past few trading sessions, we feel it is now absolutely essential to stay extremely disciplined and promptly eliminate any laggards from one’s investment portfolio.

Monday, July 27, 2015

Gold Bear Market Phase III / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Submissions

Plunger writes: Over 2 years ago I presented my first analysis of this precious metals bear market. After extensive study of the characteristics of past bear markets, I forecast a brutal bear market that would undergo three psychological stages. The third stage would be a wrenching decline that would ultimately reach levels so shocking that it would cause the destruction of the gold investment class. My analysis, which was dubbed Plunger's Flush, was met not just with skepticism but outright derision. I believe I know how Galileo felt.

Monday, July 27, 2015

Today's Anti-Capitalists Ignore the Fundamental Problems of Socialism / Politics / Social Issues

By: MISES

Jonathan Newman writes: Anti-market and pro-socialist rhetoric is surging in headlines (see also here, here, and here) and popping up more and more on social media feeds. Much of the time, these opponents of markets can’t tell the difference between state-sponsored organizations like the International Monetary Fund and actual markets. But, that doesn’t matter because the articles and memes are often populist and vaguely worded — intentionally framed in such a way to easily deflect uninformed attacks and honest descriptions of what they are actually saying. In the end, they can all be boiled down to one message: socialism works and is better than capitalism.

Monday, July 27, 2015

Weary Investors Signal an Exhausted Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Michael E. Lewitt writes: It was probably not a coincidence that stocks ended their worst week of the year on the same day that Hillary Clinton gave a speech outlining her capital gains tax proposals. Stocks didn't crater just because of the speech, but it sure didn't help.

As I noted in a Money Morning Special Broadcast sent out just after the speech on Friday, the Democratic presidential candidate proposed to double capital gains taxes on most investors.  There was no mention in her speech of any desire to extinguish the egregious "carried interest" tax that allows her richest private equity donors to pay lower taxes than their secretaries. But her proposal was neither about showing political courage nor intelligent tax and economic policy.

Monday, July 27, 2015

Silver Bull Hammer Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

During gold's takedown over a week ago, silver rather surprisingly escaped relatively unscathed, a resilience that we can put down to this market already being very depressed, with its COTs showing little speculative interest even before the latest drop.

On its 6-month chart we can see that, like gold, silver put in a fine bull hammer on Friday on good volume, and this, along with evidence elsewhere across the sector, suggests that a short-term rally is in the offing, even if the outlook remains bleak over the longer-term. Silver is a trading buy here with a stop beneath Friday's intraday low.

Monday, July 27, 2015

Gold Cracks Support and Plunges to New Lows - How Low Will Price Go? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

Gold cracked support and plunged to new lows since the last update, which came as no surprise to us. So what now? We are seeing signs that a recovery rally is about to begin, but it probably won't get all that far before a new downleg gets underway that sees gold make new lows again.

It's not just gold prices that are suffering - the entire commodity complex is in ragged retreat, with steep falls also in copper and oil. Why is this? The reason is that the gathering forces of deflation are starting to wreak havoc, and they are not going to be stopped by more QE - even if they print another $10 trillion to throw at the problem. The reason is that the debt mountain dwarfs whatever QE can be generated, and the deflation will continue until this debt is purged. Governments are like greedy short-sighted children - they are not interested in doing what is right and behaving with restraint and propriety, if they were they would have taken control of the debt crisis long ago.

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Stock Market Slippery Slope / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jesse

US equities continued to slide today as the recent makeover rally designed to put some lipstick on some new tech pigs has continued to retreat.

Stock had their worst week of the year. I hope you were able to take something off the table.

New housing sales slumped badly according to this morning's economic data.

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Commodity Markets Breakdown Of 2015 Is Now A Fact / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldSilverWorlds

We wrote on July 5th that markets are increasingly looking scary. Now, only 3 weeks later, the situation seems to be escalating.

Let’s get it straight: this is a serious deflationary bust in the making. The most worrisome fact is Dr. Copper’s technical breakdown, as seen on the first chart.

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Gold Price at a Five-Year Low: Here’s What to Do / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Gold prices crashed Monday as panicked sellers drove the yellow metal to its lowest level since 2002 before recovering to a five-year low. More significantly, they broke the $1,130/oz “floor” which had previously been regarded as a solid support level – a key indicator to me that the downdraft wasn’t over.

So I wasn’t surprised to see gold prices finish yesterday’s U.S. trading session modestly lower – but that doesn’t mean I was any less excited, either.

Sunday, July 26, 2015

The Number One Lesson From Greece / Politics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Raul_I_Meijer

There’s arguably nothing that’s been more hurtful -in more ways than one- to Greece and its Syriza government over the past six months, than the lack of support from the rest of Europe. And it’s not just the complete lack of support from other governments -that might have been expected-, but more than that the all but complete and deafening silence on the part of individuals and organizations, including political parties. 

It’s no hyperbole to state that without their loud and clear support, Syriza never stood a chance in its negotiations with the Troika. And it’s downright bewildering that this continues to get so little attention from the press, from other commentators, and from politicians both inside Greece and outside of it.

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Stock Market Primary III Inflection Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started off at SPX 2127. After a rally to SPX 2133 on Monday, completing eight straight days of higher highs/lows, the market headed lower for the rest of the week, with four straight days of lower highs/lows. For the week the SPX/DOW were -2.55%, the NDX/NAZ were -2.25%, and the DJ World index was down 2.0%. On the economic front positive reports edged out negative reports in a quiet week. On the uptick: existing home sales, the FHFA, leading indicators and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: new home sales and the WLEI. Next week will be highlighted by the FOMC meeting, the first look at Q2 GDP, and the Chicago PMI.

Saturday, July 25, 2015

$1.5 Quadrillion Derivatives Time Bomb / Stock-Markets / Derivatives

By: STRATFOR

When investing becomes gambling, bad endings follow. The next credit crunch could make 2008-09 look mild by comparison. Bank of International Settlements(BIS) data show around $700 trillion in global derivatives.

Along with credit default swaps and other exotic instruments, the total notional derivatives value is about $1.5 quadrillion - about 20% more than in 2008, beyond what anyone can conceive, let alone control if unexpected turmoil strikes.

Saturday, July 25, 2015

10 Stock Market Sectors Most Vulnerable to Cyberattacks / Companies / Cyber War

By: Investment_U

Anthony Summers writes: Target (NYSE: TGT). Home Depot (NYSE: HD). Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). EBay (Nasdaq: EBAY). Bank of America (NYSE: BAC).

These are just a few names on the growing list of companies that have experienced major data breaches in recent years. Both the public and private sectors are seeking better ways to confront cyberthreats as they become more common.

Saturday, July 25, 2015

Immigrants Aren’t the Only Ones Who Shouldn’t Be Voting / Politics / Social Issues

By: MISES

Ryan McMaken writes: Much of the current immigration debate in the United States centers around the issue of “amnesty,” which is a vague term that may mean anything from “we won’t deport you” to “let’s fast-track you to citizenship and voting rights.”

From a laissez-faire perspective, the deportation aspect of amnesty — an increase in federal inaction — is one thing. The extension of voting privileges, though, is something else entirely.