Wednesday, September 28, 2022
STOCKS BEAR MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENT BIG PICTURE / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As my recent excerpt from my forthcoming mega-piece on the stock market illustrated, there is a 80% probability that the bear market has bottomed and so far it has not done anything to negate this probability. Therefore it looks like we are coming out of our 6th MAJOR discounting event since the BIG Financial Armageddon BAD BEAR MARKET bottomed in March 2009.
Zoom out of hourly and daily charts and see the true magnitude of the 2022 bear market that has so many worried of much worse to come.MSM coverage of the financial markets is akin to a fly buzzing around that needs swatting!
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Wednesday, September 28, 2022
How to Profit During a Bear Market - Portfolio Account / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Back in early April I opened an IKBR ISA with £20k (ISA limit) that I proceeded to quickly populate with target stocks as they traded down to new bear market lows. ISA's limit what one can do, i.e. NO SHORTING, Options and no access to most ETF's due to HMRC rules, another restriction is one cannot hold US Dollars, every buy and sell has to be converted into and out of US dollars, so ISA's are definitely geared towards longer term investors. Anyway the IKBR ISA acts as a good real world proxy for how my public portfolio should perform if one followed my analysis, where the primary goal is to accumulate during this temporary bear market to capitalise on during the subsequent bull market, my expectations from the outset were that there WILL BE DRAWDOWNS because stock prices FALL during bear markets so as to result in the buying opportunities, stocks getting cheaper during a bear market is a good thing! Cheaper in terms of their valuations for if a stock price falls and the stock gets more expensive in valuation terms then that is NOT a good thing!
Current state of the IKBR ISA is up 12% since inception (Early April 2022) through following my analysis of buying target stocks when they trade down to NEW LOWS and then trimming lightly on the subsequent rallies, cash now comprises about 33% of this portfolio up from about 3% near the lows, as IKBR does not charge a rip off f/x fee as many brokers, for comparison FreeTrade charges 0.45%, AJ Bell 1% and Interactive Investor charge 1.5%, what are they smoking! AJ Bell recently cut their f/x fee to 0.75% but their platform is a pain in the butt to use for US stocks i.e. NO LIMIT ORDERS!
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Monday, September 26, 2022
S&P June Stock Market Lows - To Break or Not to Break? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market - To break the June Low or not to break the June low, that is the question?
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Monday, September 26, 2022
Is Powell Bent on Wrecking the US Economy? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: MoneyMetals
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has taken a turn to the dark side.
After years of pleasing everyone on Wall Street and in Washington, D.C. with ultra-loose monetary policy, Powell has, for now, decided to recast himself as the villain. He now seems intent on crashing markets, killing jobs, and driving the economy into a deep recession in the name of fighting the inflation he helped unleash.
Monday, September 26, 2022
Gold Waved the White Flag and Began Its Great Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As predicted, the dollar grows stronger while gold goes in the opposite direction. Can we expect a temporary correction next?
It’s happening! The massive upswing in the USD Index and the slide in the precious metals market are here.
Just like you knew in advance. I’m receiving multiple messages where you’re sharing your gratitude with me, and I’m extremely happy that you’re enjoying the results that you were able to get thanks to my help.
All right, what’s next?
First of all, I would like you to keep perspective.
Sunday, September 25, 2022
INFLATION! INFLATION! INFLATION! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The big questions for the US and how our US tech stocks will fair over the coming year are -
1. Does the Federal Reserve finally understand just how dangerous inflation actually is ?
2. If it does then how is it going to subvert the inflationary policies of the White house, does not matter which clown is in office i.e. democrat or republican, BOTH have tendencies towards rampant money printing given the 4 year election cycle.
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Sunday, September 25, 2022
Intel 13th Gen Raptor Lake Pricing, Specs, Benchmarks, Leaks and more... / Personal_Finance / INTEL
By: HGR
Here's what you need to know about Intel's 13th Gen Raptor Lake processors that officially go on sale on 20th October 2022. Intel has embargoed benchmarks until then but all indications from leaks of engineering samples are to expect a 10% to 15% boost over Alder lake in productivity tasks.
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Saturday, September 24, 2022
Stock Market BULL Trap SET! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market FOMO's to 4280 Friday close ending at the high of the day! Short covering rally triggered by CPLIE of 8.5% down from 9.1% for June, all blind to the reality of what Inflation above 4% let alone above 8% actually means for the US economy and how it impacts the every day lives of ordinary americans that are destined for greater pain with each passing month even if CPLIE nose dives to under 4% which will make NO difference in terms of the Inflation pain that I suspect will run for the whole of this decade as the 10 year inflation graph warns of what looks set to come to pass. It's not rocket science, it's the consequences of over $9 trillion of QE, and $35 trillion of total GLOBAL money printing QE, the only way it won't show up in the inflation indices is if they systematically exclude everything that goes up in price, perhaps only leaving the ball point pen that Jerome Powell fidgets with at every Fed meeting.
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Friday, September 23, 2022
All Gold and Quiet on the Eastern Front / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The war in Ukraine has entered its seventh month and some people believe that China is gearing up for a war with Taiwan. Will bulls invade the gold market?
In August, half a year had passed since the beginning of the war in Eastern Europe. Ukraine defended its independence but lost 13% of its territory. The six months of war between Europe’s two largest nations have brought death and suffering on a mass scale. More than 13 million people have been displaced, and nearly 7 million refugees have dispersed across Europe. Ukraine’s economy collapsed while the prices of food and energy have soared.
What is the situation on the front? Unfortunately, the aggressor’s troops maintain a relatively stable land connection with Crimea and are slowly pushing the Ukrainian army from its positions in Donbas, the main area of combat. It means that taking control of the rest of the Donetsk Oblast by the Russians is probably a matter of time, although it may take several more months. The change in favor of the Ukrainians is possible only if the West significantly increases its military supplies, which would enable an effective Ukrainian counter-offensive. It’s true that the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the direction of Kherson in the south of the country is gaining momentum – in particular thanks to the supplies of HIMARS – but a full scale operation is unlikely due to a lack of manpower and weapons.
Friday, September 23, 2022
Economic Conditions, Market Performance Worsen after Fed Rate Hike / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are trying to tough this week despite another large rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by three quarters as expected. Fed chairman Jerome Powell vowed to bring inflation down and restore price stability.
Jerome Powell: My colleagues and I are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal. We have both the tools we need and the resolve that it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%. The longer the current bout of high inflation continues the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.
After pursuing ultra-loose monetary policy that fomented price instability and massive inflation in the first place, Powell seems to now want to model himself after former Fed chairman Paul Volcker. In the early 1980s, Volcker jacked up interest rates to the highest on record to finally curtail the inflation surge from the late 1970s.
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Friday, September 23, 2022
Why You Should Be Leery of the Stocks Bond 60 / 40 Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"The tidal wave of risk assumption … may be turning"
Many investors allocate a percentage of their portfolios to bonds to cushion against a drop in the stock market.
A popular allocation is a 60 / 40 mix of stocks and bonds.
However, this hasn't worked out recently. Here's a Yahoo! Finance headline (Sept. 6):
The 60/40 strategy is on pace for its worst year since 1936: BofA
The mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds was down 19.4% from the start of the year through the end of August, according to Bank of America Global Research.
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Thursday, September 22, 2022
Saudi Arabia Potential DOOMSDAY Oil Market BLACK SWAN! / Commodities / Saudi Arabia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yes here's another potential black swan brewing in the background as the world continues to reel from the impact of high oil prices with the blame firmly being placed at the feet of Czar Putin, so I trundled along to take a look under the hood of the oil market and I noticed something strange that could result in an oil market DOOMSDAY Black Swan event!
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Thursday, September 22, 2022
Stock Market Smashing Fed Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 turned decisively lower, with only a very brief spike that got reversed within an hour. No room for bullish misinterpretation, Powell didn‘t say really anything that could feed buy the dip sentiment – he delivered. Treasuries are getting accustomed to the soft landing not turning out so soft in the future actually – yields at the long end of the curve have finally turned down while Fed tightening keeps being reflected on the short end, and junk bonds are suffering.
In all the risk-off, the dollar was unable to hold on to sharp gains both yesterday and today, and together with the crypto premarket upswing and real asset resiliency, this points to a reprieve in paper asset selling later this week. SPX 3,825 is the key level to watch today. I like the message commodities and precious metals are sending here – once it gets accompanied by miners and oil sector stocks, things would get brighter, but we are not there yet. Suffice to say that sharp downside is being decisively rejected.
Wednesday, September 21, 2022
Will Gold Survive Another Jumbo Rate Hike? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The key FOMC meeting ends soon. One thing is certain: after this event, the gold market won’t be the same.The Fed’s Projection Will Be Key for Gold
Ladies and gentlemen, please take your seat and fasten your seat belt, as we’re approaching the FOMC meeting and there could be some turbulence! Actually, gold has already entered an area of turbulence and has declined below the psychologically important level of $1,700. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has declined from $1,726 last week to the current level of $1,664, in a response to the strengthened expectations of a more hawkish Fed.
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Wednesday, September 21, 2022
STOCKS BEAR MARKETS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE PAINFUL! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The bottom line is that bear markets are supposed to be PAINFUL! And I can tell many investors feel that PAIN from the comments as they post the latest price of say Intel or AMD or TSMC or any other stock trading lower as if I have a magic button to press to make the stock go higher. So if you are feeling PAIN then go read my earlier recent articles on the psychology of investing in bear markets because bear markets are PAINFUL where the degree of pain experienced depends on what time frame on is focused upon.
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Tuesday, September 20, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Accumulation Strategy / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My strategy for this bear market from the outset has been be to accumulate during a volatile trend to a probable Dow target of 29k to 30k where I settled on my best guess of 29.6k, by late August. In the course of which I was expecting volatile swings of between 15% to 30% in either direction that would allow me to BUY big during the DIPs and then SELL a portion of what I bought during the bear market rallies, as well as selective shorting. Unfortunately this bear market has tuned out to be LESS volatile than what I was expecting i.e. swings higher of 9% are just not enough for any significant trimming of positions as the table illustrates.
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Tuesday, September 20, 2022
7 Ways to Improve Financial Literacy for Students / Personal_Finance / Student Finances
By: Sumeet_Manhas
What student doesn’t struggle with their finances at some point? After all, it’s your first time living truly on your own. You’re in charge of paying your rent and bills, shopping for groceries, and managing your bank account. And, you’re probably making a living yourself, too. All of those are firsts for you!
So, you might be under the impression your hard-earned money just vaporizes within a week after you get your paycheck. Or, you might fail to avoid going into debt just to pay all of your bills. Whatever it is, you surely need to boost your financial literacy and management skills.
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Tuesday, September 20, 2022
Why Slot Machines Are in High Demand Among Experienced Players / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Submissions
Slots are obviously the most common casino game types. Colourful gameplay and convenient mechanics attract millions of players, while the variety of gaming solutions on the market suits even the pickiest users. So, what are the main reasons why gamblers adore slot machines?
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Monday, September 19, 2022
China Could Deliver the MOTHER of ALL BLACK SWAN's! / Politics / China US Conflict
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Continuing the trend trajectory of China's collapsing insane ponzi property market that is triggering bank runs and CCP crackdowns including the deployment of tanks to meet protesting bank customers who are systematically having their lifetime savings stolen, converted from bank deposits into risky investments in bankrupt developers, then this trend towards financial collapse could result in the mother of all Black Swan events that is not on anyone's radar which is that Chairman Xi Mao Jinping literally presses the RESET button in a new GREAT LEAP BACKWARDS! THAT CHINA COULD ONCE MORE TURN FULL BLOWN COMMUNIST! The slaves got a taste of CCP capitalism which they then erased ALL of the masses hard earned wealth on the click of a mouse button.
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Monday, September 19, 2022
STOCKS BEAR MAKRETS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE PAINFUL! / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The bottom line is that bear markets are supposed to be PAINFUL! And I can tell many investors feel that PAIN from the comments as they post the latest price of say Intel or AMD or TSMC or any other stock trading lower as if I have a magic button to press to make the stock go higher. So if you are feeling PAIN then go read my earlier recent articles on the psychology of investing in bear markets because bear markets are PAINFUL where the degree of pain experienced depends on what time frame on is focused upon.
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