Sunday, December 11, 2022
Demand For Gold – No New Highs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
As investors and others continue to jockey for position in order to announce that “the bottom is in for gold” or that “gold owners received an early Christmas present” or “crypto failures will translate to higher prices for gold”, it is clear that most of them are thinking that increased demand for gold will drive its price higher.
That is not the way it works.
FACT NO. 1 The price of gold is NOT driven by demand for gold.
FACT NO. 2 The price of gold tells us NOTHING about gold.
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my extensive analysis of September 2021 this indicator warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k, the low to date has been 28.7k! For the bull market proper to resume this indicator needs trade above the thick black line, until then the market remains in no mans land of trading within range with the risks of worse to come. Most probable is the market trades in a range i.e. to trade above the blue dotted line, until the market has worked through it's bear phase. At this point I am discounting a re-run of 2008, as so far the indicator is showing a tendency to remain above the grey line, however this also implies that the bull market proper could be as much as a year away! In terms of price, the Dow is not going to see a new all time high anytime soon, probably beyond the end of 2023.
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Portfolio Convenctial Wisdom 60% stocks, 40% bonds? Ha! / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: EWI
In his February 2022 book, Last Chance to Conquer the Crash, Robert Prechter said:
Countless advisors have counseled "diversification," a "balanced portfolio" and other end-all solutions to the problem of allocating your investments. These approaches are delusional. ... No investment strategy will provide stability forever.
That certainly has applied to the classic 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio this year.
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Thursday, December 08, 2022
How Bear Markets DIE - Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
The Dow is bouncing off a new bear market low of 28,700 having already broken above the preceding low of 29.7k that targets resistance at 31k. However given the degree of momentum behind this rally the Dow could easily continue climbing to target 32k which would represent a sizeable 12% advance in what I would consider as being a sub-swing i.e. not the whole move which implies that this rally that apparently is being dismissed by most as bear market rally could eventually retrace the whole disown move from the 34k high. But for now the Dow 1st targets 31k and then 32k before it is likely to correct towards 30.5k before RESUMING it's bull run.
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Thursday, December 08, 2022
Since the Gold Rally Has Stopped, Can a Reversal Be Expected? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold’s rally was just stopped by the resistance provided by its previous high and its 60-week moving average. Will gold now reverse?
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Thursday, December 08, 2022
Crude Oil Drops to a New Year Low – What’s Happening? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Paul_Rejczak
Here’s how to make sense of the different figures reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Macroeconomics
From a macroeconomic point of view, the US dollar index (DXY or USDX) has maintained its downward trend within its recent regression channel, probably still eyeing the next quarterly S2 pivot just located at the $100 mark.
Wednesday, December 07, 2022
Invalidations Across the Market Have Major Implications for Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The invalidations of breakouts and breakdowns are strong signals in the opposite direction, and we just saw them throughout the market – also in gold.
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Wednesday, December 07, 2022
S&P 500 Sold Off Again - Is This Still Just a Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stock prices suffered another sharp decline yesterday – is this a change of trend?The S&P 500 index lost 1.44% on Tuesday, as the broad stock market continued its Monday’s 1.8% sell-off. It reacted to Monday’s better-than-expected ISM Services PMI release. On Thursday the S&P 500 reached new local high of 4,100.51, and on yesterday it went closer to the 3,900 level.
This morning the S&P 500 is expected to open 0.3% lower after an overnight decline of more than 1%. We may see a short-term rebound following the recent declines. It still looks like a consolidation within an uptrend. However, the index broke below its two-month-long upward trend line yesterday, as we can see on the daily chart:
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
UK House Prices CRASH 2023 - Warns every man and his dog! Reality vs Perma Doom! / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The doom merchants are back, that's if they ever went away, go search UK house prices forecast and you are met with a stream of expectations that UIK house prices will fall by between 10% to 30% all latching on to utterances from the OBR and Bank of England despite the fact that neither can forecast their way out of a paper bag!
SO are house prices about to enter a bear market or worse CRASH in response to RISING interest rates? Find out in my latest UK housing market video.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently today's stock market sentiment is the most bearish since the March 2009 low! Which implies the end of the bear market is imminent. However there could be a double dip lower low.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Stock Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Cumulative NYSE Advancing / Declining issues proved a useful early warning indicator going into the stock market top, since which has closely tracked the markets decline so is not showing any obvious positive nor negative deviation, a case of continuing to keep ones eye on it for a similar cues.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Gold Bullion’s Under-Appreciated Feature: It Will Never Go to Zero / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Physical gold and silver will never become worthless. This fact does not make for much of a marketing pitch. But given recent events, this is a much more important feature than it looks at first glance.
Americans, and investors around the world, live in an age of collapsing confidence in institutions. The bubble economy built on zero interest rates by out-of-control central bankers appears to be in danger of implosion.
Companies can fail, and their share prices can go to zero. Bond issuers can default on their debt. This happens rarely in strong economies, but it can happen wholesale when bubbles pop.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: The Coming Week Will Tell Us How We Get To 4300SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
Early on in the week, the US markets declined and the supposed reason for such decline was due to the Covid lockdowns and mass protests of such in China. Yet, the Chinese markets surged strongly at the same time. And, this had many people scratching their heads.
Furthermore, right before we began the mid-week surge towards our next higher target/resistance, Powell gave a wonderful speech during which is he basically did not say anything different than what the market already knew. Yet, of course, pundits were quick to point to the speech as the reason we rallied to the next resistance/target.
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Monday, December 05, 2022
Best Student Budget Laptop for 2023 ASUS Vivobook Pro OLED 5600H, 5800H Unboxing / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
After much research weighing up specs and price we finally settled on the ASUS Vivobook Pro OLED as the best budget Student laptop, thus 512gb SSD, 16gb Ram Ryzen PC comes in two variations, the 5600H or the 5800H. Wait there's more! The SCREEEN is fantastic! OLED 2.8k! WOW on a budget laptop that currently costs £515 for the 5600h (Amazon link) or £600 for the 5800h, for those who want the 2 extra cores.
Find out as we unbox is to see what £515 to £600 bought us.
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Saturday, December 03, 2022
Stock Market and Margin Debt Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.
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Saturday, December 03, 2022
12 Days of Elliott Wave Market Analysis / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
Hi,
We're feeling the holiday spirit!
Our friends at Elliott Wave International have just launched a brand new event for traders & investors. It's called the "12 Days of Elliott." From December 1st through the 12th, you get free access to 12 premium educational resources. You'll get a different one each day.
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Friday, December 02, 2022
HUI Gold Stocks Rally Hits Target / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
The HUI rally has hit the logical resistance target where the 200 day moving average meets clear lateral resistance. It has done so in a not particularly overbought fashion due to the chop and grind it took to get here off the lows of the shaded bottoming pattern that we established and tracked in NFTRH over the last several weeks.
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Friday, December 02, 2022
Why the Fed is Wrong about Inflation Coming Down / Economics / Inflation
By: Richard_Mills
The US Federal Reserve continues to grapple with inflation, which at 7.7% (October CPI) is more than triple the Fed’s 2% target, without causing a recession by lifting interest rates too high.
The Fed has two options when it comes to interest rate increases designed to tackle the highest US inflation since the early 1980s. The first is it continues to hike rates, beyond what the economy can handle, causing a recession, usually defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. This is the “Volcker Fed” playbook.
In 1979, then US Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker faced a serious challenge: how to quell inflation which had been wracking the economy for most of the decade. The prices of goods and services had averaged 3.2% annually since World War II, but after the 1973 oil shock, they more than doubled, to an annual 7.7%. Inflation reached 9.1% in 1975, the highest since 1947. Although prices declined the following year, by 1979 inflation had reached a startling 11.3% (led by the 1979 energy crisis) and in 1980 it soared to 13.5%.
Not only was inflation going through the roof, but economic growth had stalled and unemployment was high, rising from 5.1% in January 1974 to 9% in May 1975. In this low-growth, hyperinflationary environment we had “stagflation”.
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Thursday, December 01, 2022
US Recession 2023 Already Happened in 2022! Stealth Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
FED Balance Sheet
Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices where up until recently the Fed had succeeded in hoodwinking the masses that US inflation was just 1%. Instead at that time I warned it was more like 6%! Now it's more like 14%. Anyway the money printing binge now totals $8.8 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020 and down from a a peak of $9.62 trillion in the so called Taper. We saw how the taper of 2019 went which at the time I warned would eventually resolve in the Fed Balance sheet DOUBLING. of course I was not expecting it to happen the very NEXT YEAR in 2020!
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Tuesday, November 29, 2022
Stock Market Valuation Reset and Future EPS / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock markets trend between a state of over valuation and under valuation in earnings terms, hence my warnings to expect a valuation reset during most of the second half of 2021 which means regardless of what happens to the economy THIS bear market WAS inevitable! And it HAS come to PASS to great extent where many of the most over valued stocks have HALVED in price and not just the usual suspects but the likes of AMD and TSMC! AMAZON! And so on.
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