Thursday, July 21, 2022
Test drive EWI's Financial Forecast Service / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: EWI
Hi reader,
Market action this year has hurt A LOT of people. Cryptos. Meme stocks. Tech stocks. We've seen some huge percentage declines -- all against a backdrop of historic leaps in interest rates and inflation.
Lifestyles irrevocably changed, not for the better.
Economists missed it. The Fed missed it. Politicians missed it.
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Thursday, July 21, 2022
Stock Market Peril Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 had trouble extending gains, bonds didn‘t close on a strong note, and the dollar is readying an upswing. Can easily happen on the ECB move, and poof – there goes risk-on sentiment. Every hike is a move closer to demand destruction, and real assets are afraid – markets aren‘t yet sensing the Fed pivot, and concentrate on hawkish moves ahead. Quoting a bit from yesterday‘s premium analysis:
(…) Stocks are set to muddle through higher – this isn‘t yet the time to translate weakening earnings outlook or declining liquidity into the S&P 500 prices. Bonds need some time before their upswing continues. The dollar retreated, but hasn‘t yet made a top – that event is approaching, and would be seen in greater resilience in precious metals, namely gold. For now, the metals remain lackluster, with copper doing considerably worse (reaching $3.50 would be a success for the red metal this week really, I‘m not counting on that).
More thoughts are to be found within today‘s rich chart sections.
Thursday, July 21, 2022
Important: Are your Stocks in Stage 1, 2, 3, or 4? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Submissions
Every investor is asking the same question: When will stocks bottom?
As you know, the S&P 500 is down 20% this year and firmly in a bear market.
Since 1929, the S&P 500’s had 14 bear markets... lasting around 19 months, on average. Which means if the current bear market lasts an “average” length, we’ll see the bottom next summer.
But asking when stocks as a whole will bottom is the WRONG question. Instead, investors should be asking…
Wednesday, July 20, 2022
Dow Stock Market 2022 Forecast Trend Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market bounce fizzled out at 4180, thus no break above 4200 to target a trend to 4290 let alone anything higher and one does not need to look far for the culprit. CPLIE of 8.6% as the consensus and likely the FED had convinced themselves to expect inflation to have peaked hence triggering a whiff of panic as to what the Fed will do next to combat inflation.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2022
Gold Is Getting Ready to Follow in Junior Miners’ Footsteps / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As junior miners continue to rise and the USD keeps falling, it seems like a matter of a short time before gold soars. It only needs a proper trigger.
Gold is doing pretty much nothing these days, but junior miners tell us what gold’s going to do next. It’s most likely to rally in the short term.
Why? Because the mining stocks tend to lead gold higher and lower, and looking at the relative performance of both parts of the precious metals sector, we see that this time, miners are already moving higher, while gold is getting ready to follow in miners’ footsteps. Let’s take a closer look at what junior miners (the GDXJ) did recently.
Wednesday, July 20, 2022
What’s with all the Pretend Economists all of a Sudden? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Submissions
Is everyone an economist now?These days, everyone I speak with has a strong opinion on the economy.
Most are convinced things will get worse.
They think the US economy is headed off a cliff, and that inflation is here to stay.
As a result, they also want nothing to do with stocks. They’re certain that the entire market is about to collapse.
I see things differently…
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Wednesday, July 20, 2022
Bitcoin Scams to Be on the Lookout For / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Steve_Barker
Crypto scams are on the rise, with CNBC reporting that in 2021 "a record $14 billion" was snatched by cyber criminals in all sorts of ways!
Bitcoin scams are a major part of the fraud that's been happening in recent years. This makes sense since Bitcoin has the largest market cap by far more than any other cryptocurrency.
In this guide, we'll delve into the shady world of Bitcoin and crypto scams. Read this article in full to get the lowdown on everything you should look out for and aim to avoid in terms of crypto scams!
Wednesday, July 20, 2022
Stock Market Trend Pattern 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My stock market big picture remains to expect the Dow to target a trend towards a probable bottom by late August / Early September at approx Dow 29,600 So far the stock market has not done anything to negate this scenario and thus remains the direction of travel ahead of my next stock market in-depth analysis.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2022
UK Heat Wave 49.3c Record Temperature! LONDON'S BURNING! FIRES! We are ALL GOING TO DIE!!! / Local / Climate Change
By: Eliza_Walayat
Temps hit a new record high of 49.3c in Sheffield with similar readings across the UK that continued to suffer the global warming consequences of a Killer heatwave, sparking fires across the UK including a major incident being declared in London!
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Monday, July 18, 2022
The Psychology of Investing in a Stocks Bear Market / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Every bull market is followed by a bear market and every bear market is followed by a bull market, where courtesy of the electron and inflation mega-trends the general indices are on an upwards exponential trend trajectory. Thus all bear markets are living on borrowed time and thus ones focus should be on accumulating positions in good stocks i.e. those that actually generate earnings and have good prospects for continuing earnings growth that courtesy of bear market negative sentiment results in prices trading to under value stocks i.e. to under X18 earnings, where everything above X18 is carrying a premium which is why I completely sold out of many stocks last year such as Amazon and Nvidia even though they had yet to peak due to the risks of a valuation reset as I covered in my in-depth analysis of August 2021
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Monday, July 18, 2022
Stock Market Risk-On Vs. Liquidity Squeeze / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 ended a losing streak thanks to the still fine retail sales data, and even consumer confidence edged up. In the flattening yield curve characterizing the move to a slow growth phase, it was (and will be) up to tech to outperform value. Also healthcare is likely to see brighter times ahead. If I were to pick two reasons for why I think stocks are bottoming here, it would be the risk-on turn in bonds accompanied by the 10-year yield soundly below 3.25%, and the capitulation in oil stocks (former star performer as these are likely to get pulled down among the last sectors while the key laggards such as tech are on the verge of starting to outperform) coupled with oil holding my $93 support.
Wednesday‘s very hot CPI print means that the pressure on the Fed to keep hiking aggressively, is on. Indeed no pause in inflation, and if PPI is anything to go by (it is) then there is a lot more in the pipeline – and I‘m not bringing up owners‘ equivalent rent, which would continue driving inflation ahead (it‘ll be now service driven as opposed to goods driven). With 50bp obviously not being enough to recoup some of the Fed‘s badly damaged credibility, the question is by how much they hike actually. There is chatter about a full 1%, but another 75bp one looks most probable to me. And should we see signs of inflation moderating (gasoline and heating oil topped in June, which would help the July figures, and with inflation expectations pointing lower now, odds are that we would then get 25bp in September, and that‘s it – midterms next, justifying Fed‘s wait and see posture.
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Monday, July 18, 2022
Learn How To Improve Your Customer Relations / Companies / SME
By: Steve_Barker
Customer service is one of the most important aspects of any business. It can make or break a company, and it’s essential to get it right. We’ll teach you how to improve your customer relations so that you can provide the best possible service to your customers. We’ll cover everything from communication and problem-solving to empathy and customer retention. So whether you’re just starting out in business or you’ve been doing it for years, read on for tips and advice that will help you take your customer service skills to the next level!
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Monday, July 18, 2022
UK HEATWAVE 47.9c RECORD Temperature in Sheffield - EXTREME WEATHER RED WARNING / Local / Sheffield
By: Eliza_Walayat
They said to expect UK temperatures to break above 40c, well the city of Sheffield saw temperatures soar well beyond 40c traveling all the way to a record busting 47.9c! This is truly extreme weather for the UK, and heat waves such as this are going to become more common due to global warming, the UK could even see temperatures break above 50c that will likely see many thousands of Brit's dropping dead like flies due to not being used to the high temps, lack of experience and infrastructure!
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Sunday, July 17, 2022
Dow Stock Market 2022 Trend Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is brief stock market update as I seek to complete my extensive analysis of the US Housing Market which the following contents list indicates extent of -
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Sunday, July 17, 2022
Wipeout! New Update on Our "Green Bond" Investing (ESG) Forecast / Companies / Renewable Energy
By: EWI
Excessive euphoria in financial markets is usually a big reason to be "skeptical"
Environmental, Social and Governance bonds (ESG) -- also called "green" bonds -- are offered by companies which want to advance the causes of social justice, social inclusion and green technology.
This form of debt had been steadily gaining in popularity -- going from sales of less than $100 billion in 2015 to around $800 billion in 2020.
For instance, here's an Oct. 9, 2020 headline from Pensions & Investments:
University of Toronto's $7 billion fund makes bet on ESG debt
However, the Elliott wave structure of a global green-bond index was sending a warning signal.
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Sunday, July 17, 2022
What Are The Driving Forces Behind The Shift In Global Financial Markets Risks? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Global market risks have shifted dramatically over the past 90+ days. It almost seems as though the global markets turned 180 degrees overnight, generally going from moderately soft monetary policies to very extreme monetary policies and conditions. This sudden shift caught many traders and investors off guard and resulted in -20% to -25% losses for many.
The driving forces behind this sudden shift are inflation and excess capital (M2) because of nearly a decade of near-zero US interest rates. Much of the excess capital created over the past decade has been deployed into global equities, infrastructure, and various speculative instruments (art, homes, cryptos, collectibles, and others). However, without a doubt, the recent burst of inflation is also a result of COVID restrictions. Such restrictions reduced supply capabilities and the resulting interruptions of manufacturing/supply have been felt throughout the post-COVID global recovery.
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Sunday, July 17, 2022
Is it Time to Give up on Crypto? / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Stephen_McBride
Crypto just wrapped up a brutal first half of the year…
Bitcoin’s down nearly 60%...
Ethereum, the world’s second largest crypto, has fallen 70%...
And many smaller cryptos are down 90%+
If you’re invested in crypto… and thinking about throwing in the towel…
Saturday, July 16, 2022
USDD New Ponzi TRON SCAM Stable Coin WARNING - Offering 30% APY Hook to Crypto Suckers / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Crypto fools, here's A NEW Stable coin ponzi scheme ready to suck in your hard earned wealth hot on the heels of the Terra Luna crypto scam stable coin that did it's rug pull early May that within days was followed by the USDD scam stable coin that purportedly has already sucked in $720mln dollars by offering suckered a 30% APY interest rate. Don't be fools! Nothing pays you 30% APY! Only scam turd coins like USDD
The bottom line is that stable coins are a crypto SCAM factory, as soon as one rug pulls another one pops up, probably operated by the scam artists.
This is why crypto's will be regulated because the stable coins are a SCAM FACTORY that I have been warning of for well over a YEAR!
YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!
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Saturday, July 16, 2022
Fed-Induced Recession Looms as Rate Fears Roil All Markets / Economics / Recession 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Another pair of alarming inflation reports jolted markets this week.
On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index came in at a 9.1% annual rate. The higher-than-expected reading puts the CPI at a new 41-year high.
The biggest contributors to rising consumer prices are the basic necessities of food, fuel, and shelter. As households struggle to make ends meet, they are trimming discretionary spending, burning through savings, and running up credit card balances.
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Saturday, July 16, 2022
The Heat is on - Extreme Heatwave's Global Warming Catastrophe / Politics / Climate Change
By: Richard_Mills
In Winnipeg, the hottest day of the year, on average, is nearly 40 degrees Celsius, while in Whitehorse, the mercury blasts past 31.4. A moderating coastal climate means little to Victoria, which averages 33.1 degrees, and Toronto, the most humid city in Canada, becomes even less bearable, with the temperature climbing to a sweltering 38.4.
These are the average hottest temperatures of the year in the new Canada, based on a higher-carbon atmosphere, one of three scenarios put together a few years ago by The Prairie Climate Centre and graphed by The Globe and Mail.
If climate change doesn’t stop, Toronto will see over 100 days of searing-hot weather, according to the University of Winnipeg’s Prairie Climate Institute, which assembled the projected temperatures for Canadian cities as part of an interactive website that allows Canadians to see the likely impact of global warming on where they live.
The warming of the planet could occur at a much faster rate when “feedback loops” are slotted into climate equations. This is what happens when one change causes another change to occur, worsening the first change. NASA states that climate feedbacks could double the amount of warming caused by carbon dioxide alone. A well-known feedback loop is the disappearance of polar sea ice. This exposes dark ocean to sunlight, warming the oceans. When ice covers the poles, the sunlight is reflected back to the atmosphere, keeping the oceans cool. As the planet keeps warming, more ice disappears, exposing more water, further raising ocean temperatures, and sea levels.
Heat, that is getting worse every year and in some parts of the world is becoming literally unbearable (more on that below), is inextricably linked to droughts and fresh water loss. Here’s how it works: a lack of precipitation in the mountains from a new or prolonged drought leads to a low snow pack, lessening the annual freshet that fills up rivers, that convey fresh water into lakes and reservoirs. If this cycle continues year after year, hydro-electric power generation is imperilled, because the reservoirs are too low (such as Lake Mead, discussed below), as well as nuclear power generation that depends on vast amounts of water to run water-cooled nuclear reactors. This leads to blackouts, when residents and businesses who are running their air-conditioning full tilt to get some relief from the scorching heat, find the grid is overwhelmed. In future, there simply won’t be enough water to supply the amount of electricity required.
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