Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, October 22, 2006
US Presidential Cycle Mid-term Election and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As the Dow Jones hits new highs above 12,000 for the first time, we take a look at what the market should be doing in terms of the long established US Presidential Cycle as we approach the Mid-Term Elections in November.
The Period November 2005 to November 2006, marks the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle, this period is typically characterised by a general decline in optimism by investors as the president and Congress begin trying to manage difficult budget related issues and generally go about the 'boring' task of running the government.
Monday, October 16, 2006
FTSE 100 Closes at 5 year high of 6172.4 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FTSE 100 built on last week's gains to close 15.1 points higher at 6172.4, its highest level since February 2001 as the market took its cue from the US and Asian stock markets.
Friday, October 13, 2006
Dow Jones Makes a Fake New High Whilst most of its Component Stocks Don't ! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As the Dow Jones posts new record highs this month, there is something strange going on with the Dow components where most of them are NOT making new highs !!!
So how many Dow Components are making NEW ALL TIME highs this month ?
FIVE ! That's 5 out of 30 are making new all time highs - WHILST the Index makes NEW highs
How many trading more than 10% below their all time highs ?
TWENTY - Two thirds of the Dow Stocks are trading more than 10% Below their all time highs.
How many are trading more than 20% below their all time highs ?
EIGHTEEN - More than half the Dow 30 Stocks are trading 20% Below their all time highs.
And here's a real shocker ! How many stocks are trading more than 50% ! Below their all time highs !
FIVE DOW STOCKS are trading more than 50% below their all time highs - THATS the same number making new all time highs !
So where am I going with this analysis ? ...... In the run up to the US Election the Dow Jones is Making NEW All time highs, when most of its components are nowhere near making new highs, does this or does this not smell of market manipulation ?
The situation is even worse when you consider the stocks that have been REMOVED from the index ! I.e. Eastman Kodak off 75%, International Paper off 45%. Those that say the markets are not manipulated, then who do you explain these facts ?
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Monday, October 09, 2006
Dow Jones Hits New Highs in Lead up the Mid-term Elections / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow Jones has fulfilled the price pattern identified in the July Analysis , having strongly marched higher as buyers rely on the pattern of buying into the run up to the Election as a self fulfilling prophecy, despite the bad news around growth, inflation and interest rates.
The Dow is likely to continue to hold into the Elections and then correct. The degree of correction depends on how high the market goes between now and the elections, but regardless of the results a correction is expected, as both the Dow and other Stock Markets squeeze in the usual Seasonal bull run into December into October instead.
Monday, September 11, 2006
The FTSE Uptrend & Forecast to Dec 06 / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The uptrend from the June low is being tested as the FTSE falls towards 5800.
Will it hold ?
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Friday, July 21, 2006
Dow Jones Forecast - Double Bottom ? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A month on from the FTSE double bottom, the same pattern can be observed forming on the Dow Jones 30 !
The correction during the summer was inline with the previous two corrections during the bull market in terms of price, though not time. But the key difference between this correction and the previous ones is that the Dow is now flirting with its all time high ! It failed to break on the first attempt and had a strong correction. The scene is set for another attempt on the high, with the second attempt more likely to succeed than the first attempt as the speculative forth has been unwound.
Saturday, June 24, 2006
FTSE Forecast - ABC correction - is there more to come or not ? / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The expected correction has occurred on cue, hitting the target of 5,500; but has moved much faster than original expectations !
So where to next ?
Saturday, April 29, 2006
FTSE 100 Forecast - Sell in May and Go Away ! / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In a week that ended with the FTSE falling over 100 points from high of 6137, we revisit the age old adage of selling in May and go away !As my analysis will show the market is now primed for a serious correction after fulfilling a years target in less than 4 months !
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Saturday, December 31, 2005
FTSE 100 Forecast for 2006 / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FTSE ended 2005 with the expected end of year rally, on a high note of 5619, and thus ensuring that the bull market is intact going into 2006 - Implying higher prices !
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Friday, October 28, 2005
FTSE 100 Forecast - Get ready for the Seasonal Rally ! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As anticipated the FTSE has had its correction during October, bottoming out at 5130 and now rallying to 5236, with the last close at 5213. The question is, has the bottom been made or not ?.
Its a tough call, but we are now moving into a strong up seasonal period that should see the FTSE rally strongly into December 2006, and on that basis it is highly probable that the bottom has already been put in at 5130 !
Thursday, May 05, 2005
FTSE 100 Analysis & Forecast - Time to Buy ? / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
After correcting the uptrend towards 5100, is the FTSE now gearing up for the next push up ?
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Tuesday, January 25, 2005
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By: delete
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Friday, December 31, 2004
FTSE 100 Forecast for 2005 / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
29th 12 2004 FTSE 100 Forecast for 2005
A Quick Review of 2004
2004 Was a volatile year for the stock market, where the market moved between 4300 to 4600 for much of the year. The market ended the year at 4814, which represents a relatively poor gain of about 7.5%, Now for the good news ! - The FTSE ended the year near its highs with the bull market that began in March 2003, INTACT ! Which suggests more gains for the FTSE during 2005.
FTSE Outlook for 2005
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