Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, September 19, 2011

The Gold Continuation Triangle, and the Coming Breakout to $2,100 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Jesse

The Gold Daily and Silver Weekly charts are growing rather large since the key breakouts that mark this leg of their bull markets. It does give the big picture, but it could make things a little more difficult to see for the short term movements. Here is a closer look at daily gold.

Although there are a number of possibilities, some of which have been promoted by other 'name' chartists which people have sent to me, it seems most likely that gold is in a short term consolidation pattern, as a pronounced symmetrical triangle. A breakout to the upside seems most likely. That breakout will target 2100.

Monday, September 19, 2011

What Future US Monetary Policy Means For Gold Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Bob_Kirtley

Gold has traded in a choppy lateral motion recently, with prices sliding south over the past week or so. The market looks hesitant ahead of the FOMC meeting this week, with traders cautious not to take on too much prior to what could be a game changing announcement. Bears are cautious about getting too short in case Bernanke announces a significant easing of monetary policy and bulls share a similar sentiment in case the Fed announces less easing that the market currently expects. This lack of conviction coupled with some profit taking has contributed to the recent price action in gold.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Gold Odds Favor Accelerating to the Downside / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Merv_Burak

The week has seen some ups and downs for gold but in the end gold has been slipping slowly lower.  Will it reverse or accelerate?  Odds seem to be on the side of accelerating on the down side with some ups to confuse the issue.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Why Gold is not good for long term investment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

“Gold has no utility other than looking shiny and pretty. Gold demand equals fear demand and when people becomes more afraid than you in a year or two, then you will make money but if they are less afraid, then you will lose money. Gold by itself doesn’t produce anything and is a bad investment in the long run” Warren Buffet on Gold Investment

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Imminent Silver Price Crash to Devastate Longs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Clive_Maund

Silver has fallen back over the past week as expected, and although its uptrend from late June has now failed, which is viewed as significant, it managed to hold up above nearby support which may generate a bounce early next week. However, this should not be a cause for celebration by silver longs, as overall the picture for silver continues to look precarious in the extreme. We can see why on the year-to-date chart below, which shows that silver appears to be completing the B-wave of a large 3-wave A-B-C decline, the 3rd wave of which, believed to be imminent, is likely to be really severe and will devastate silver longs.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Gold Moving Averages Large Gap Calls for Deeper Correction / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Clive_Maund

Gold has fallen back over the past week as expected, but so far it has not broken down from its suspected intermediate top area, which would involve its breaking below the support shown on our year-to-date chart below. Friday's action was positive and it is entitled to stage a minor bounce early next week, as it is now not far above this important support level and the support at its rising 50-day moving average, and in addition the compression signaled by the high negative reading of the MACD histogram (blue bars) is calling for an immediate bounce. However, the now very large gap between the 50 and 200-day moving averages, which has grown larger still over the past week, continues to call for a correction below the 50-day moving average, probably to the vicinity of the 100-day moving average now at about 1624, in coming weeks. Thus, after a probable modest bounce early next week, gold is expected to break down below the support and head lower.

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Will Gold and Silver Move Lower Together? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Przemyslaw_Radomski

Ever wonder what it would take for Greece or the other debt ridden nations to leave the euro? According to a UBS report there are no such provisions. It appears that the only way that a country could leave in a legal way is to negotiate an amendment to create an opt-out clause. That would likely take a long time and would require a negotiation with the entire European Union with possible referenda to be held in some of the countries.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Why the Gold Price is So High? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: MISES

Ever since Ben Bernanke began flooding the banking system with trillions of new dollars in the fall of 2008, economists and other pundits have disagreed on whether the US is in store for a grinding deflation or an accelerating inflation. Part of the disagreement stems from some people using the terms to refer to prices, whereas others refer to changes in the total quantity of money and credit.

Friday, September 16, 2011

What a Major Banking Crisis Would Do To the Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Loss of Faith and the Decay of Trust in Measured Terms

With the downgrade of Societe General and Credit Agricole, two of the largest French banks, because of their Greek debt holdings, it is certain that any default by Greece (which still looks more than likely) will trigger major banking crises. Moody's lowered Credit Agricole to Aa2 from Aa1 because of its Greek holdings, and will continue to review the impact of funding markets on the rating. Societe Generale was reduced to Aa3 from Aa2, with a negative outlook, as Moody's re-evaluated its level of state support. BNP Paribas (BNP) SA, the largest French bank, had its Aa2 long-term rating kept on review for a possible cut. French lenders top the list of Greek creditors with $56.7 billion in exposure to private and public debt. BNP Paribas has declined 41% in Paris trading this year, Credit Agricole has fallen 46% and Societe Generale has dropped 55% on escalating concern that the European sovereign debt crisis is turning into a banking crisis.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Ongoing Silver Bear Market Means Investors Should Diversify Into Rhodium / Commodities / Rhodium

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

RHODIUM TRADING THOUGHTS is about timely and profitable trading of precious metals. We do not believe every turn in the market can be called. Our goal is that our recommendations should be profitable. Profits are the goals, not trades. Do not expect all recommendations to be profitable. No system can achieve that lofty goal. Our goal is simply to state whether conditions for a metal are favorable or not. Buy signals are issued when appropriate. These signals are generally speaking for day they are issued. If price remains below signal price, buying can be done. Do Not Buy signals are given when market is over bought, and buying is unwise. Blue triangles indicate an over bought condition. These would not be good times to buy, so they are labeled Do Not Buy. Software is not showing complete legend, for some reason.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Gold Rallies on Dollar Bailout of Europe / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Ben_Traynor

U.S. DOLLAR gold bullion rallied to $1789 an ounce Friday morning London time – down 3.6% from last week's close – following a sharp fall that began the previous day after key central banks announced they will begin US Dollar liquidity operations.

Silver bullion gained 1.9% from Friday morning's low to hit $40.20 per ounce by lunchtime – though this still represents a 2.9% drop for the week.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Silver is Once Again Beginning a Runup / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: George_Maniere

Silver prices are once again enjoying a run-up as they did from January through April. During that period they doubled and briefly touched $50 an ounce before settling back down to the low $30s.

As I write, silver prices are back above $40 an ounce and that may be giving you the urge to sell.  I would advise that you don’t. This recovery is for real, and it has much further to go.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Don't Sell Your Silver Until It Hits $150 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Money_Morning

Martin Hutchinson writes: Silver prices had an exciting run-up in the year ending in April - they almost tripled, briefly touching $50 an ounce before settling back down to the low $30s.

Now, silver prices are back above $40 an ounce. That may have you feeling the urge to sell - but don't.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Gold Caution is Warranted / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Toby_Connor

I realize most people that come to this blog are bullish on gold. I myself am definitely bullish long-term. That being said, warning signs are starting to build.

Since gold is down this morning there's a good chance that the mining stocks are going to break the intermediate trend line today. The complete failure to follow through on the move above 600 is also concerning. Usually after an asset has tested an area three times the breakout occurs with strong follow-through.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Falling Crude Oil Prices: Worrying Trend or Saving Grace? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

Marin Katusa, Casey Energy Team writes: When oil prices start to decline, investors and economists get worried. Oil prices in large part reflect global sentiment towards our economic future – prosperous, growing economies need more oil while slumping, shrinking economies need less, and so the price of crude indicates whether the majority believes we are headed for good times or bad. That explains the worry – those worried investors and economists are using oil prices as an indicator, and falling prices indicate bad times ahead.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Lehmans' 3rd Anniversary Sees Gold 132% Higher, Eurozone Split Over "Collectivized Debt" / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Adrian_Ash

THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL gold fell in wholesale dealing for the sixth time in nine sessions on Thursday morning in London, as world stock markets rallied sharply on the third anniversary of the collapse of Lehmans Bros. investment bank.

Flirting with $1800 per ounce – some 6.3% below last week's new record high – the gold price still stood 132% higher from 15 Sept. 2008.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

China is Interested in Biofuels - Why Not the West? / Commodities / Ethanol

By: OilPrice_Com

China, arguably the world's most influential and dynamic economy, is beginning to eye renewable as a partial solution to its voracious and growing energy needs. If Beijing determines that biofuels represent the future, expect to see the current modest western investment field to change dramatically.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

The Gold and Silver Bull Market Prices Heading Higher Despite "bumps on the road" / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Bob_Chapman

In the case for gold and silver, it has been go long and stay long for 11 years. During that period great gains have been made during what was the formidable first phase of the gold and silver bull market. Gold was $260.00 and silver was $3.50. Some stocks rose from $4.00 to $86.00, some from $0.80 to $42.00. This performance in spite of gold and silver suppression by the US government. In their desire to keep gold and silver subdued all the government really accomplished was to offer an opportunity for buyers to buy at lower prices than they normally would have been able too. In that process buyers have been able to stay ahead of inflation and many have made large profits.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

The Gut-Level "Delusion" of Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Adrian_Ash

What could be more rational amid this financial crisis than choosing to buy gold...?

THANKS TO late-2011's truly miserable outlook, there are now more bullish gold-price forecasts to choose from than Heinz varieties. UBS sees a 2012 average of $2075 per ounce. Nearer $4000 an ounce would be "fair value" today reckons Paul Tustain here at BullionVault. Dylan Grice at Société Générale says $10,000 isn't impossible.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Dissecting Gold Is a Bubble / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Michael_J_Kosares

Jonathan Kosares writes: Members of Wells Fargo's wealth management team released an article recently entitled, "The Gold Bubble," where it is claimed, in no uncertain terms, that gold is in a bubble. While I would not normally spend time rebutting an entity that would shock me far more if they actually put out a recommendation to buy gold, the subsequent readership this article has received (it was referenced in the business section of the Denver Post, for example) suggests it might be an entertaining, and perhaps useful exercise, to dissect their claims point by point to see what, if any, validity they carry.