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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Saturday, April 22, 2017

Gold Market Fractal Event / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Michael_J_Kosares

“In the absence of a credible monetary standard, we expect no escape from the treadmill of rising debt, both US and globally, that outpaces economic growth. Income inequality, wage stagnation, overvaluation of financial assets, and speculation instead of productive investment are likely to be prolonged under the current monetary regime. Whether or not policy makers take a proactive approach to address monetary reform, the fact remains that gold is massively underpriced in all paper currencies. It would be preferable if the necessary adjustments could occur without a repeat of a 2008-like financial crisis. We give this possibility a chance, albeit slim. In any event, we expect a significant repricing of gold higher during the current administration, either by design or because of market events. Whenever a repricing happens, we expect broad grassroots support for that outcome.” – John Hathaway, Tocqueville Funds
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Commodities

Saturday, April 22, 2017

Gold IRAs: How to Lessen or Avoid That Pesky Capital Gains Tax / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Since we just finished tax season, many first-time gold investors might wonder what to do about their precious metals holdings. How are they taxed, and are there any legal ways to lessen those taxes?

Precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum are considered capital assets, so you will have to pay capital gains taxes when you sell them for a profit.

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Commodities

Saturday, April 22, 2017

Gold Price Upleg Momentum Building / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s young upleg just enjoyed a major upside breakout, bolstering strong technicals and heralding a coming Golden Cross buy signal.  Investors have started aggressively buying gold again after record-high stock markets distracted them.  This gold upleg’s upside momentum is really building, portending accelerating gains in coming months.  Yet sentiment remains poor, with traders still quite bearish on gold.

Virtually no one is excited about gold these days.  Mainstream investors continue to ignore it like usual, while contrarians largely expect a lackluster sideways grind at best.  This apathy is the natural result of gold’s recent consolidation between late February and mid-April.  With 6+ weeks seeing no net progress, there was little to spark any enthusiasm.  Thus gold gradually faded from speculators’ and investors’ radars.

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Commodities

Saturday, April 22, 2017

Why Now Gold and Silver Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Richard_Mills

John Exter was an American economist and a member of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve System.

Exter is known for creating Exter's Pyramid - useful for visualizing the organization of asset classes in terms of risk and size.

When the credit system is expanding most money flows to the top of the pyramid - the increasingly speculative and illiquid investments. When the credit system comes under pressure and debt cannot be repaid, the items at the top of the pyramid get sold and money flows towards the bottom.

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Commodities

Friday, April 21, 2017

Silver, Platinum and Palladium as Investments – Research Shows Diversification Benefit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Silver, platinum and palladium see increased role as investment vehicles
– Increase in academic output on the white precious metals is in line with this
– Silver and particularly gold are safe haven assets
– Silver was a safe haven at times during which gold failed to be
– Platinum and palladium less so but have diversification benefits
– Silver manipulation is possible and indications of, if not legal proof
– Benefits platinum and palladium could provide as money not been fully addressed
– Main focus in investment drivers is price – not on drivers of physical demand
– Platinum, palladium and silver have different relationships with other assets and divergent abilities in hedging risk
– White precious metal investors should employ a buy-and-hold strategy
– Silver markets have become more efficient since 1977
– White precious metals are increasing in investment importance
– Research shows hedging role and diversification benefits of precious metals

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Commodities

Friday, April 21, 2017

French Elections and Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In the previous edition of the Market Overview, we analyzed the potential impact of the European elections on the gold market. As the Dutch elections are behind us, let's see how the Wilders' defeat affected the markets and the political outlook for France, where people will vote for the president on April 23.

Investors reacted positively to the outcome of the Dutch election, relieved that populists did not win. European stocks and the euro rose, while the France-Germany 10-year bond yield spread declined after the elections. This is because Wilders' failure is considered to indicate that “the wrong kind of populism” is losing momentum.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Gold Miners Intermediate Cycle Top? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017

By: Gary_Savage

The large volume surge in DUST a few days ago was the warning bell that the miners may have topped.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 20, 2017

An In Depth Look at the Precious Metals Complex / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Rambus_Chartology

Before we look at todays charts I would like to thank Sir Plunger for putting on the short oil trade this week while I was recovering from surgery. You won't find a more through and in depth look at oil than what Sir Plunger offered. And wouldn't you know it his timing as usual was impeccable. Oil dropped almost 4% today.

Now lets turn our attention to the sector which many members have a love hate relationship with.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Toward the New Gold-en Era  / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Dan_Stinson

In the past half a decade, gold prices were fueled by negative rates. Now gold is driven by geopolitical risks, efforts at gold-backed trade and local prices.

Not so long ago, the conventional wisdom was that the continued recovery of the US economy would support rate hikes and thus the strengthening of the US dollar, which would pave way for gold’s further decline.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 20, 2017

3 Types Of Life-Changing Crisis That Make You Wish You Had Some Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Stephen McBride : On November 8, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to the airwaves to declare that Rs500 and Rs1,000 banknotes—which made up 86% of the currency in circulation—would be invalid effective from midnight. While the policy created chaos at banks, the real story lies elsewhere.

When rumors of a ban on gold spread two weeks later, Indians began rioting. To quell the panic, the Finance Ministry was forced to release a statement saying there was “no plan to restrict gold holdings.”

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Commodities

Thursday, April 20, 2017

The Last Time This Happened, Gold Rallied 20% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

John Grandits : With much of the price action in gold driven by sentiment and technical analysis, you should keep an eye on the broader trends, even if you consider yourself a buy-and-hold investor.

Traders use technical analysis to predict future market moves based on recent price action. Most of it sounds complicated, but it really boils down to simple math.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 20, 2017

2 Choke Points That Threaten Oil Trade Between Persian Gulf And East Asia / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The flow of international trade has always been subject to geopolitical risk and conflicts. At all stages of the supply chain, trade inherently faces challenges posed by the geopolitical realities along a given route.

Some routes are more perilous and harder to navigate than others. One such trade route is the maritime path for transporting oil from Persian Gulf exporters to East Asian consumers. This route faces two major choke points that are unavoidable given geographic constraints.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Gold’s Next Downside Target Is Around $700… Even if It Breaks Up First / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Harry_Dent

Many analysts have been so excited that gold broke to new highs, above $1,262, in late February.

I was excited as well, but for a different reason.

I’d forecast that gold could bounce back just above the July 2016 highs of $1,373, to around $1,400 or $1,450.

And ANY bounce, no matter how high it went, would be a good place to get rid of any gold you’re still holding.
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Commodities

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Silver Production Has “Huge Decline” In 2nd Largest Producer Peru / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Silver production sees “huge decline” in Peru
– Production -12% in one month in 2nd largest producer
– Silver decline is due to ‘exhaustion of reserves’ in Peru
– GFMS recognise that ‘Peak Silver’ was reached in 2015
– Global silver market had large net supply deficit in 2016
– Silver rallied 13.5% in Q1 in 2017
– Base metal production accounts for 56% of silver mining
– Base metal demand under threat from global economy
– Own financial insurance of silver coins and bars

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Silver Price Likely To Rise In A Concentrated Manner / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Hubert_Moolman

The long-term view of silver is extremely bullish, given that it is one of the most undervalued metals, today. It is evident that ideal economic conditions are present, for silver to rise for many years to come:

  • All-time low interest rates, that are about to rise
  • Over-valued stock markets
  • Fragile international monetary system that is debt-laden to the full.
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Commodities

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Plungers Big Trade - The Oil Short / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Plunger

The big trade of this year positions oneself for the upcoming US recession. In speculating and investing if one can get the main concept right everything else falls into place. Various trades will branch off from this theme. The trade is not priced into the market at all since we are betting against the accepted narrative. We can use various proxies to play the trade, as just about anything economically sensitive may qualify. Base metal producers, car companies, sub prime financiers, retail establishments, the list goes on. The main vehicle I have chosen to execute the trade is the oil price. I have chosen this because both fundamentals and technicals indicate to me it is over priced and due for a fall. It trades deep and has a record of falling under distressed economic conditions.

"All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream." - Edger Allan Poe

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

What Bullish Sentiment Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ed_Carlson

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts a reversal in the oil markets and outlines his strategy.

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Commodities

Monday, April 17, 2017

How Investors Can Buy Gold At A 6% Discount Today / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Stephen McBride : Since the election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 13% while the S&P 500 is up 11%. One victim of the move into risk assets was gold, which plunged over 13% in the weeks following the election.

Although gold prices have since recovered some of their losses, the yellow metal’s drop has created a buying opportunity for those wanting to add bullion to their portfolios.

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Commodities

Monday, April 17, 2017

History of the Post WWII Crude Oil Price From a Technical Perspective / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Plunger

This is part I of a 3-part series introducing Plunger's "Trade of the Year". This section gives a review of the oil price from 1946 to present explaining the essential forces which powered its price through various bull and bear markets. It explains how we ended up where we are today in the oil market. Part II will explore the macro forces driving today's economy which lays the groundwork for introducing my trade of the year in part III.

To acquire a broader view of oils path over the past century I highly recommend the following resources on the oil market. Daniel Yergin's "The Prize" is an in-depth review of the history of oil up to the First Gulf war. It is indispensable in understanding the growth of the industry. Other books provide entertaining color to the industry by reviewing the swashbuckling nature of the early players who formed the industry as independents. I recommend "The Big Rich" by Bryan Burrough and JP Getty's autobiography "The Way I See It". Finally, David Stockman's "The Great Deformation" is essential reading as it corrects all the false economic narratives of the past which have been masquerading as truth.

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Commodities

Friday, April 14, 2017

Supply Crunch Or Oil Glut: Investment Banks Can't Agree / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

In recent years, U.S. shale has thrown in another unknown in the mix of factors driving the price of oil. This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC's production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oil price forecasts by Wall Street's major investment banks.

The biggest banks remain bullish on oil prices, expecting moderate price gains by the end of the year, even after last month WTI prices dropped below $50 for a couple of weeks.

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