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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Central Banks’ Gold Buying and Repatriation Spree / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Central banks’ purchases and repatriations of gold have caught our attention once again. In October, Serbia’s central bank bought 9 tons of gold, following in the footsteps of many other central banks that have been adding to their gold reserves recently, including Russia, Hungary, and Poland.

Nine tons may seem to be a modest purchase, but the transaction was worth $438 million at $1,503 an ounce. And it has raised Serbia’s gold reserves to 30.4 tons, constituting about 10 percent of the country’s total reserves. Importantly, the National Bank of Serbia could carry on with its purchases, as it got clear message from the Serbian President, Aleksandar Vucic to continue boosting gold reserves in order to be better prepared for the economic crisis: “I think we’ll continue doing that because of what we see in which direction the crisis in the world is moving,” Vucic told the press.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Another Precious Metals’ Reversal Coming Right Up! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold reversed yesterday, and so did the rest of the precious metal sector. Mining stocks and – what’s important – silver showed strength relative to gold and rallied even more than gold. Silver’s strength is important because it indicates that we are already in the second half of the short-term upswing in the precious metals market. If there only was a tool that would provide us with a more precise time prediction… Oh wait, there is one. And it just worked perfectly yesterday.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Checking in on Gold & Silver Sentiment / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals sector remains in a correction. The miners have shown some positive signs but are not ready to move yet because the metals likely have more correction ahead.

Technical support levels can provide us with low risk buy opportunities but combine that with sentiment data and we increase our odds of success.

One reason why the sector is stuck in a correction is because the net speculative position in Gold remains stubbornly high at 44% of open interest. Following interim peaks in the 2000s, the net speculative position usually fell to 30% and even 20% at times before Gold began its next impulsive advance.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Energy Sector to Bounce Off Cycle Bottom into 2020 / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: readtheticker

Low prices fix low prices, and eventually the shorts will be forced to cover and buy back their shares and force prices higher. This sector is 'this close' to such and event. Both Hurst cycles and Wyckoff supply and demand action are warming up to the bullish side for the energy sector (XLE). This is on the back of growing inflation fears. Inflation sourced from wage growth in the US and world wide central bankers (Japan [BOJ], Europe [ECB] and the USA [FED]) printing money at the same time. You should note this has never happened before, all three at the same time, printing. Yes, the energy sector has suffered from the lower oil prices but soon the shorts will have to judge how much lower energy stocks can go, as you can see the SPDR Energy Etf (XLE) has been unable to get below $50. Demand is present.  What to do? Watch for significant Wyckoff demand foot prints to see price test upper resistance (sign of strength), and then take action from a strong change of character.    

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Silver Price Trend, Gold Ratio, MACD and Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis continues from part 1 (Silver Trend Forecast 2019 Update ).

Gold Silver Ratio

The Gold / Silver ratio has continued to trend lower, currently standing at 83.8, which implies to expect the Silver price to continue to out perform Gold over the coming months. So whilst Silver is no longer the SCREAMING BUY it was when trading at a ratio of 95, nevertheless is still CHEAP! Whilst we can dream of Silver reaching it's long-term average of 50 which on today's Gold price would suggest $29.6! However my more realistic target for 2019 has been for a move to 80, which in fact was briefly achieved early September. A ratio of 80 would put the Silver price on $18.60 against the current price of $18.07, so only marginally higher, so whilst still favouring Silver, however don't expect Silver to soar once more like it did during August relative to the Gold price.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

The Prospects of Gold’s Next Upswing / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The USD Index rallied on Friday, and gold responded with an intraday decline – that’s normal. What’s not necessarily normal is the size of the daily change in gold compared to the size of USD’s rally.

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Commodities

Monday, November 25, 2019

Gold Price Bull Run Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis continues from part 1 (Gold Price Trend Forecast 2019 Current State). The gold price has had a strong bull run this year, breaking out of it's long-term trading range of $1370 to $1150, which propelled the Gold price towards a core target zone of $1500 to $1530 though ahead of the time frame I had in mind therefore putting the gold price into an extremely overbought state. The price action since the peak of $1566 appears corrective and thus should be in preparation for Gold's next leg higher with my long-term target of $1800 as of December 2016 less than 15% away from the most recent high of $1566.

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Commodities

Monday, November 25, 2019

Cameco Uranium Major 'Heading Into a Bigger Q4' / Commodities / Uranium

By: The_Gold_Report

The Q3/19 results and the Q4/19 outlook are outlined in a BMO Capital Markets report.In a Nov. 5 research note, BMO Capital Markets analyst Alexander Pearce wrote that following the reporting of Q3/19, the outlook for Cameco Corp. (CCO:TSX; CCJ:NYSE) "remains robust, with a strong balance sheet and upside potential if uranium prices recover quicker than expected."

Q4/19 is expected to be more active than Q3/19, as is typical for the uranium company, Pearce noted. For one, BMO expects Cameco to make record purchases in Q4/19 of greater than 7,000,000 pounds (7 Mlb) of uranium, including 1.2 Mlb from Inkai, to meet the midpoint of guidance. Further, BMO expects Cameco to sell 13.5 Mlb of uranium in Q4/19, which would constitute a quarterly record and which should drive CA$157 million of free cash flow.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 24, 2019

This Time is Different for Gold - Today vs. 2012 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Gold bugs will remember 2012 as the last year of hope that gold was still in its bull cycle as it managed to hold key support around 1550 into year end. It should not be lost on us that here into year-end 2019 gold’s new bull cycle has risen to, and logically halted at, the very same former support that is now important resistance to a new bull market.

We anticipated this resistance in the summer, and although the up-turning Semi cycle of 2013 was logical to gold’s demise 7 years ago, that is no longer the case as Semiconductor leadership takes a new leg up in 2019. Why? Well, let’s explore just a few of the differences between then and now.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 24, 2019

Is Another Sharp Precious Metals Sector Down-Leg Imminent? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund examines the data and answers the question. The precious metals sector has been on the defensive since gold's COTs reached extreme readings in August, and silver broke down from its parabolic uptrend in September. Many think that the sector correction has now run its course, but has it? That is the question that this update is intended to answer.

On gold's latest six-month chart we can see the correction in force from the start of September and how it has unwound its earlier overbought condition and brought it back to a support level. Given the bullish alignment of moving averages, which shows the existence of a larger uptrend, many are concluding that all this will be sufficient to get it moving north again from here. However, there are several bearish factors in play, which suggest that instead we are likely to see another sharp drop before this corrective phase is done. The quite sharp drop early this month was on heavy volume, and the feeble rally of the past week or so looks like a countertrend rally—a bear flag—that will lead to another sharp down-leg very soon. This will break gold out of the channel shown and take the price to our downside objective in the $1,380–$1400 area.

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Commodities

Friday, November 22, 2019

Here’s Why You Must Protect Yourself Outside the Financial System… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back our good friend David Morgan of The Morgan Report. David, it's good to have you on as always and we appreciate the time today. How are you?

David Morgan: Mike, I'm well. Thank you for having me.

Mike Gleason: Well, we've had a significant correction in precious metals prices, especially in silver, and I wanted to get your thoughts on that to start out here. To us, it looked like the bullion banks sold futures contracts to lots of speculators who got interested in metals. Then as often happens, the speculators got taken out to the woodshed. However, open interest appears to still be rising. We would have expected that to fall after a couple weeks of lower prices and pain pushing those longs out of the market, so maybe something else is going on here. What do you make of the recent price correction and where do you think the markets might be headed in the short term? Do you think the selling might be over for now?

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Commodities

Friday, November 22, 2019

Why You Should “Follow the Money” on The Yellow (and Silver) Brick Road / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Since the Federal Reserve detached the dollar from the gold standard in 1971, the world's central bankers – with the Fed leading the charge, have flooded the world with fiat currency to the point of diminishing its purchasing power to shadow status.

A common belief during the early decades of the former Soviet Union's rise after 1917 was that, according to Marxist-Leninist theory, the West and capitalism would either self-destruct, or be "buried" by the superior economic platform being constructed for the proletariat by the USSR, and later Communist China.

But even the Great Depression, which in the West lasted from the Crash of 1929, and arguably into WWII, failed to do the trick.

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Commodities

Friday, November 22, 2019

The Worst Is Over For Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Some analysts see the world dodging a recession next year, which provides some upward room for oil prices.

Last week, the IEA warned last week that “the hefty supply cushion” building up in the first half of 2020 will cause OPEC+ problems as the group tries to balance the oil market. Part of the reason for another potential surplus is the steep drop in demand growth this year, forcing oil forecasters to make multiple downward revisions to their projections.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Crude Oil Price Begins To Move Lower / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, we posted a multi-part research post suggesting a collapse in Crude Oil could be setting up and how we believe this decline in energy prices may lead to a broader market collapse in the near future.  Crude oil fell more than 3% on November 19 in what appears to be a major price reversal.  On November 20, inventory levels and other key economic data will be presented – could the price of oil collapse even further over the next 60+ days?

Here is a link to our most recent multi-part article about Crude Oil from November 13 (just a week ago): https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/what-happens-to-the-global-economy-if-oil-collapses-below-40-part-i/

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Commodities

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Cracks Spread in the Precious Metals Bullion Banks’ Price Management System / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Department of Justice prosecutors charged a sixth JPMorgan executive for cheating in the precious metals markets.

Jeffrey Ruffo stands accused of racketeering and spoofing metals prices from 2008 - 2016, along with other crimes including conspiracy to commit wire fraud.

The indictment outlines nearly a decade spent coordinating with other traders in JPMorgan’s precious metals department to rig prices. The activity includes thousands of fraudulent trades placed for two purposes.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Zig-Zagging Gold Is Not Necessarily Bearish Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In Friday’s article, we wrote that what comes up must correct and gold has indeed shown to be in a corrective mode. We also wrote that the yellow metal was unlikely to break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the previous upswing and while gold moved to this level earlier today, it didn’t break below it. At least not in any significant way – the few cents below this level doesn’t really count. Let’s take a closer look at gold’s overnight chart to see what the decline means.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Legal Status of Cannabis Seeds in the UK / Commodities / Cannabis

By: Submissions

If you live in the UK and are interested in cannabis seeds, it is not always clear what is within the limits of the law and what is not. You might wonder for example: is it legal to order cannabis seeds in the UK through this web shop or via cannabis seed companies like Vault, Gorilla and Attitude seed bank? The short answer to that question is: Yes. It is legal to order and own cannabis seeds in the UK. Yet there are certain points of interest. Therefore we have written this blog “Cannabis seeds UK” where you can read everything you need to know before you buy cannabis seeds in the UK.
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Commodities

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

The Next Gold Rush Could Be About To Happen Here / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: OilPrice_Com

Gold major Barrick just tripled its profits…

Newmont Goldcorp, also reported a big jump in profits over the last couple of months.

But what most investors don’t know is that most of the money is made in the discovery of new world-class gold deposits.

And geologists now think they could have hit the motherlode in a new mining frontier…

It all started when miners found a nugget of solid gold weighing 1 kilogram…worth $45,400.

Then, they repeated the feat, and dug up a second nugget weighing 2.7 kilograms, worth $122,500.

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Commodities

Monday, November 18, 2019

Gold Mining Stocks Q3’ 2019 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The major gold miners just enjoyed a phenomenal quarter for gold, which soared after its first bull-market breakout in years.  Q3’19’s much-higher prevailing gold prices should’ve driven soaring earnings for the miners, due to their big inherent profits leverage to gold.  So this just-completed Q3 earnings season is the most important for this sector in a long time.  Did the gold miners’ fundamentals indeed radically improve?

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

The definitive list of major gold-mining stocks to analyze comes from the world’s most-popular gold-stock investment vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Launched way back in May 2006, it has an insurmountable first-mover lead.  GDX’s net assets running $11.8b this week were a staggering 40.2x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!  GDX is effectively this sector’s blue-chip index.

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Commodities

Monday, November 18, 2019

The Best Way To Play The Coming Gold Boom / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: OilPrice_Com

It's no secret that a small move up in gold prices...

Converts -- directly -- in to a huge move in junior gold miners.

For every 1% move in gold... a small gold miner can rise 20%... 40% or more.

And right now, the smartest investors -- insiders at TD, Merrill, Citi and more -- are calling for gold to rise 33%.

Gold could surpass its all-time highs and shoot up over $2,000 per ounce.

This could send gold miners into the stratosphere.

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