Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Unlike the U.S. Government, the Gold Market Never Closes / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The U.S. government partially closed at midnight on Friday. But the UK deals with a much more serious crisis. Potentially also for gold.

So it happened again. The most powerful country in the world didn’t manage to renew another short-term government funding extension. It’s quite embarrassing, but we all should already get used to it. Since 1976, there have been almost 20 previous occurrences. But the world never collapsed. Why should it, given the character of the government? In the worst case it is a parasitic, mafia-style organization, while in the best scenario it is an inefficient bureaucratic Moloch with the dynamism of a sloth.

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

3 Trends That Could Push Gold Higher in 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldSilver

There were some curious developments in the gold sector last year, most of which have flown under the radar of mainstream press reports. And the more they ignore what’s happening, the greater the surprise to the upside will be. It could indeed be very exciting for those of us that are overweight precious metals and have stayed the course.

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Gold Price on the Move / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Since bottoming on December 11, 2017, at $1,242, gold has tacked on nearly $100 to its price. Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss what they see going on.

Clearly, one reason for the move in gold is the weakness in the U.S. dollar. The black line tracks the U.S. dollar index over the past two months while the gold line tracks the gold price. The dollar hit its recent high exactly when gold reached its low and the two have diverged since then.

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Gold Market Consolidates Near Important Levels as Government Shuts Down / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

The gold market has been mired in a four-and-a-half year basing pattern. The rally that began late last year has taken prices up toward a major resistance zone. It’s make or break time!

Also, on the cusp of a potentially big move is the bond market.

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Precious Metals Are Building Another Launching Pad / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals market. I believe that the GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I think we can see it in occur in early 2018.

Since I have been on vacation for the last two weeks, and will be traveling again this week to LA and NYC, I am going to keep this update a bit shorter than normal.

Monday, January 22, 2018

Two Factors for Gold That You Don’t Want to Miss / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Even though mining stocks closed last week below the Jan. 2 close and silver even declined below the Dec 31, 2017 close, gold moved higher. It’s not far from this year’s top either. So, is all well and are bullish gold price forecasts justified? Not necessarily. In today’s article, we show you two reasons why it’s a good idea to think twice before opening long positions in gold.

Some time ago we discussed the apex technique for the HUI Index and it worked perfectly, triggering a reversal right at the apex of the triangle. Today, we can see something very similar on the long-term GDX ETF chart and in light of the mentioned performance, it shouldn’t be ignored. Let’s take a look at the details (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Monday, January 22, 2018

Gold Price Is Facing Triangle Pattern Resistance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Franco_Shao

XAUUSD is facing the resistance of the upper trend line (now at around 1343.00) of the triangle pattern on its weekly chart once again. Being contained by the trend line, the gold price pulled back from 1344.65.

Monday, January 22, 2018

Who Will Take Control in Crude Oil Market? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although the EIA weekly report showed that crude oil inventories dropped for a ninth straight week and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected, U.S. production outweighed positive news. But did yesterday price action change anything in the technical picture of black gold?

Monday, January 22, 2018

Why You Must Own Silver in 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

While Gold is very close to a major breakout (in price) its strength has not filtered down to Silver yet. Gold is 3% away from a major breakout and comfortably above its long-term moving averages. However, Silver is well below its 2016 high and is currently battling its 200-day moving average. But that is okay. Silver typically lags and underperforms Gold until Gold gains momentum or breaks key resistance. A major breakout in Gold this year and its effect on Silver is just one reason why Silver could have a big year.

Monday, January 22, 2018

This Could Be The Hottest Mining Stock Of 2018 / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: OilPrice_Com

Sunday, January 21, 2018

Silver As Strategic Metal: Why Its Price Will Soar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The arguments in favor of silver as an investment asset are growing rapidly. In the opinion of the Jackass, silver is the most under-valued hard asset in existence, with the highest potential for price appreciation on the globe. To begin with, central banks own no silver, but do own huge tracts of gold. Industry has huge demand for silver, but a trifling amount for gold demand. The investment demand is another key factor in favor of silver, but also for gold. Ever since the tech telecom bust in 2000, the precious metals growth curve has been evident. Ever since the subprime bond disaster in 2007, followed by the Lehman strangulation in 2008, the precious metals growth curve has continued. It is suppressed like holding back a team of six stagecoach Clydesdale horses by simple leather straps held by mere men with computers on their backs. Ever since the QE inflation policy of monetizing the USGovt debt, the monetary role of Gold & Silver has never been more acute in modern history. But silver offers much more.

Saturday, January 20, 2018

Macro Trend Changes for Gold in 2018 and Beyond - Empire Club of Canada / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nick_Barisheff

It is a pleasure to speak again at the Empire Club.

I have always believed that the future price of gold is best understood through long-term irreversible trends. Today’s macro trend changes are part of a looming tectonic shift that started decades ago, and have not been adequately reported by the mainstream media.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) introduced new banking rules, to be implemented by 2019, which stipulated that “gold bullion held in own vaults or on an allocated basis can be treated as cash and therefore risk-weighted at 0%.” In addition, the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) adopted a new rule on August 30, 2012 that stated “gold bullion held in the banking organization’s own vaults, or held in another depository institution’s vaults on an allocated basis, can be rated zero percent risk.”

Friday, January 19, 2018

Bond Market Bear Creating Gold Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Richard_Mills

Gold is climbing as bond yields rise and the dollar falls, over speculation that China is pulling back on buying US Treasuries and Japan signals it is winding down its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile, US debt continues to grow after the Republicans under President Trump pushed a trillion dollars worth of tax cuts through the Senate, that the Congressional Budget Office thinks will add $1.7 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.

Friday, January 19, 2018

Gold Stocks GDX $25 Breakout on Earnings / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The world’s leading gold-stock ETF is nearing a major upside breakout from key technical levels.  GDX is getting closer to challenging and powering above $25.  That would accelerate the sentiment shift in this deeply-undervalued sector back to bullish, enticing investors to return.  Good operating results from the major gold miners in their upcoming Q4’17 earnings season could prove the catalyst to fuel this GDX $25 breakout.

The classic way to measure gold-stock-sector price action is with the HUI NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index.  But the HUI benchmark is being increasingly usurped by the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF as the gold-stock metric of choice.  GDX is used far more often than the HUI in gold-stock analyses these days, both online and on financial television.  I haven’t seen the HUI mentioned on CNBC for years now.

Friday, January 19, 2018

Upside Risk for Gold in 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Black swans are very surprising and rare events. As they are beyond the realm of normal expectations, it is impossible to predict them. However, analysts do not care about such details and they outdo each other in forecasts. Our favorite is the list of ten outrageous predictions published by the Saxo Bank. The risk events include: the loss of Fed’s independence for the U.S. Treasury, the plunge in Bitcoin prices as government strike back, the abandonment of the yield curve control by the Bank of Japan, or the harsh division between the old and new EU members.

Friday, January 19, 2018

It’s Time To Build The Gold GDX Launching Pad / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

In 2017, the word “disappointment” took on a new spelling – “G-D-X.” After several failed break-out attempts in 2017, there is no question that it provided us a year of frustration.

As of Friday, the metals have now give us another indication that a break out attempt may be setting up yet again. And, just like the others we tracked last year, I am unable to tell you definitively whether the market will trigger that set up. However, after making higher highs off the December support on Friday, the metals have almost completed a 5-wave structure off those lows. That is the initial bullish indication for which we have been waiting in 2018.

Friday, January 19, 2018

For Americans Buying Gold and Silver: Still a Big U.S. Pricing Advantage / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

David Smith: Two years ago, in this space, I penned an essay discussing how Americans - and other countries that are "dollarized" - where the local currency is either the USD or pegged to it - had a significant advantage when it came to getting the most for their money when exchanging dollars for precious metals.

Lately I looked into this issue again and the good news is - it's still a good deal. In relation to a lot of other folks, even better than before! But the bad news is that this might not be the case much longer...

Friday, January 19, 2018

Will Surge in Bond Yields Smash Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Yields on U.S. Treasuries have leaped recently. It will wreck the yellow metal. Or maybe not.

Yields Reach New Heights. Breakthrough for Gold?

Last week, we wrote that concerns emerged that China could stop or slow buying the U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. bond yields reacted strongly. We noted that in theory it should sink gold, but the usual “correlation between bullion and Treasury yields broke down thanks to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which supported the gold prices”. Due to the importance of that issue for the gold outlook, we continued to monitor the developments in the bond market to keep investors updated.

Thursday, January 18, 2018

Bitcoin Crash Sees Flight To Physical Gold Coins and Bars / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

‘Digital Gold’ Bitcoin Flight To Safe Haven Physical Gold

– Latest bitcoin, crypto crash causes gold coin and bar demand to surge
– Bitcoin down 40% from high, Ripple down 50% and Ethereum down 30%
– Ripple and ‘Digital gold’ Bitcoin fall past key psychological price levels
– $300bn wiped from cryptocurrency fortunes in just 36 hours
– New research says that there is ‘Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem’
– Savvy crypto buyers converted their short term gains into physical gold bars, coins
– Bitcoin and Ripple sellers bought gold both for delivery and storage from GoldCore
– Gold ETF holdings rise – Assets in iShares Gold soar to $10.7 b, highest in 5 years
– 95% of cryptocurrencies will go to zero …

Thursday, January 18, 2018

Crude Oil Sweat, Blood and Tears / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil hit a fresh 2018 high of $64.89, but then reversed and declined very quickly, erasing most of Friday increase. What encouraged oil bears to act and how did this decline affect the short-term picture?

Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration said that U.S. oil output is expected to continue its rise to 6.55 million barrels per day (with production from shale rising by 111,000 bpd) in the coming month, which encouraged oil bears to act. As a reminder, before the Friday market closure, they received one more reason to act – the Baker Hughes report, which showed that the oil rig count jumped by 10 to 752 (to the highest level since the beginning of September 2017). What impact did the above-mentioned circumstances have on the daily chart of crude oil?