Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, January 02, 2018

Copper Outlook at Critical Juncture and Implications for the Silver Price / Commodities / Copper

By: Metals_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund delves into the reasons behind copper's recent rise and what that could mean for silver.

We have seen an unusually steady uptrend in copper this month that has resulted in it appreciating by about 10%, which might not sound like much, but makes a big difference if you are a producer with fixed costs. What is remarkable about this uptrend is not only that it came hard on the heels of a high volume smackdown in the early days of the month that at the time looked bearish, but that we have seen 16 days trading days in a row of higher closes as of the close of trading on Thursday, as can be seen on the 3-month chart for copper shown below. After doing some extensive research it has been discovered that the fundamental reason for this day after day seemingly interminable uptrend was that a prominent Chinese buyer, who has an old fashioned way of doing things, was walking over to the London Metals Exchange every day for weeks with his black briefcase in hand and buying roughly the same amount of copper.

Tuesday, January 02, 2018

Gold, Silver Predictions 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Michael_J_Kosares

A major shift in sentiment will drive prices in the new year

With such a solid end to 2017, it prompts the question what we might expect of gold in 2018. The most immediate question is whether or not it will pick up where it left off 2017 and continue its climb into the New Year, or fizzle and spend the year going sideways or worse, down. I have refrained from the perennial turn of the year prediction sweepstakes for a number years, but I will venture out on the limb this year to say a price in the mid-$1500s looks achievable in 2018.

Monday, January 01, 2018

Longer Cycles for Gold and the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: SurfCity

By now you know that my swing trading approach is to focus on the 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) to establish positions. It seem’s that everything that I track has the 5-6 month low to low cycle. Sometimes the ICLs come sooner at 4 months or later at 7+ months but the average is 5-6 months.

Everything also has a Yearly Cycle Low (YCL) which is nothing more than two 5-6 mont ICLs. Cycles longer than one year, however, vary by asset. The USD and Bonds have a 3 Year Cycle low to low and Stocks have a 7 Year Cycle low to low. Gold’s longer Cycles include a 4 Year Cycle and an 8 Year Cycle, which is simply two 4 Year Cycles back to back. Remember that longer cycles typically dominate shorter ones, meaning that if the longer cycle is in a bullish phase, most of its 5-6 month Intermediate Cycles will be right translated in terms of Time while making a higher high and a higher low (i.e. stair stepping up so to speak).

Monday, January 01, 2018

Gold Achieves $1375 Target 20167, $1500 Expected for 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Bullish commodity traders and investors in the likes of oil and gold also saw strong positive returns for the year as Oil ended at its high for the year of $60 and Gold at $1310 both inline with my bullish expectations for these commodities for 2017.

Monday, January 01, 2018

Crude Oil Achieves $60 Forecast Expectations for 2017, $80 Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Bullish commodity traders and investors in the likes of oil and gold also saw strong positive returns for the year as Oil ended at its high for the year of $60 and Gold at $1310 both inline with my bullish expectations for these commodities for 2017.

Sunday, December 31, 2017

Commodities, CRB, Oil & Gas, Gold, Silver... Markets Big Picture Update / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Gary_Tanashian

Some monthly charts of interest in the commodity sector, including precious metals.

CRB Index dwells below key resistance. A break of 200 would target around 250 in 2018.

Sunday, December 31, 2017

The End of the World as We Know It - Gold Safe Haven / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Richard_Mills

Imaginations of the Misguided 

It’s Christmas 2017 and North Korean Dear Leader Kim Jong-un is facing a crisis. Recently the United States, with UN approval, imposed the harshest round of economic sanctions yet on his reclusive regime.

While North Korea has been sanctioned since 2006 due to continuing attempts to develop nuclear weapons, this new provocation by its sworn nemesis is the last straw for Kim, who feels the great legacies of his father and grandfather, Kim Jong-il and Kim Il-sung, weighing more heavily each day.

Saturday, December 30, 2017

Four Things We Learned About Gold in 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

2017 is almost over. What did we learn about gold during this time?

Gold May Prosper in Good Times

First, gold may shine in unpleasant macroeconomic outlook. Generally, gold performs the best during economic slowdown or turmoil. In 2017, the economic conditions were far from recessionary climate. Global economic growth accelerated and became more synchronized among countries. The U.S. economy performed well, the unemployment rate achieved a record low, while inflation remained subdued. The Fed hiked interest rates three times, while the Republicans managed to pass a tax bill. And the U.S. stock market continued its rally, while the cryptocurrencies experienced a parabolic rise at the end of a year. Does it look like a supporting environment for gold? Not really. However, the price of the yellow metal has risen more than 12 percent in 2017, as one can see in the chart below. Perhaps it’s not very impressive, but not bad given the macroeconomic environment. And much better than a savings account or Treasuries.

Friday, December 29, 2017

Gold GDX ETF From One Inflection Point To Another / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

First published on Sunday Dec 24 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Ever since we broke down below the upper support region back in early September, and invalidated an immediate break-out set up, we have been looking for the GDX to test the 21 region. It was a point of support which could complete the larger degree wave ii, and begin the long-awaited start to a major 3rd wave rally. And, if it broke, it opened the door to the 17-19 region for a larger degree wave ii bottom.

Friday, December 29, 2017

Gold: This Might Hurt / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The gold volatility index moved to a new all-time low and there was no meaningful action in gold recently. Well, we profited on the decline and on the following upswing, but the price action that we saw was nothing to call home about. For months, gold has been moving around the $1,300 level and it’s trading relatively close to it also today. But, will this action persist for much longer? Not likely. It seems that something is about to hit the fan.

Before this week, there were many signs pointing to lower prices of precious metals in the following weeks, but not necessarily in the following days. This week, we are finally seeing the bearish short-term confirmations. We discussed them yesterday and in today’s analysis, we provide a big update.

Thursday, December 28, 2017

COPX Copper Miners ETF Big Base = Big Move / Commodities / Copper

By: Rambus_Chartology

COPX Copper miners etf, has finally made it back up to the top rail of an expanding flat top triangle which is consolidating the June rally. The 20 day ema has just crossed back above the 50 day ema which is giving us a buy signal.

Thursday, December 28, 2017

Silver Is a Strong Buy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Clive_Maund

For many weeks we have been waiting patiently, like vultures perched on the branches of trees, for the Large Specs to go belly up and croak, and the good news is that they just have, so it's time for us to swoop down and feast on the carcasses, the carcasses being silver and the better silver stocks, which are at good prices here, and although they have already started rallying over the past week or two, the COT structure is now much healthier, suggesting that they will continue to advance.

Thursday, December 28, 2017

Gold, Bitcoin and the Blockchain Replaces the Banks – Realists Guide To The Future / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Futurist guide to 2028 shows a world of uncertainty and disruption
– One scenario suggests cybersecurity attacks will result in bitcoin and blockchain’s dominance of financial systems
– Cybersecurity threat will still loom large and wreak havoc. Gold, silver and other real assets will benefit.
– Adoption of cryptocurrencies and blockchain will send gold price soaring
– Use of cryptocurrencies to take advantage of world systems will see investors turn to safe havens such as gold bullion and coins

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Gold Miners Are At Another Inflection Point / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals market. I believe that the GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I think we can see it in 2018.

Recent price action

In early December, we identified a specific 20.89-21.26 support region, which, if held, could begin that major 3rd wave break out and rally we have been awaiting. But, since it would mean that this 2nd wave would have completed in an unorthodox manner, I noted that I would need to see confirmation that the market has truly bottomed.

Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Gold and Silver Intermediate Cycle Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

While we are not out of the woods just yet, evidence it beginning to build, from a Price and Time perspective, that an Intermediate Cycle low has been left behind. Gold’s daily and weekly charts look constructive thus far as are the COT reports but the volume patterns are a bit concerning as volume is declining as we have moved higher and we want to see this pattern reverse as volume should start to increase as we move higher. We have confirmed that Gold has found a short term TCL / DCL, including a failed TCL which is one of the factors we look for when a longer ICL develops.

Saturday, December 23, 2017

5 Charts That Show Historic Value in Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Back in early 2016 as precious metals rebounded, our work showed that gold stocks were arguably the cheapest they had ever been. They had the worst 5-year and 10-year rolling performance ever, they were trading at potentially 40-year lows on a price to cash flow basis, they were the cheapest ever relative to the stock market and Gold and most notably, the Barron’s Gold Mining Index was trading at the same level as 42 years ago! The gold stocks enjoyed a massive recovery in 2016 but it was short lived as the sector corrected and then consolidated (far from the highs) for over a year. Although we have a tendency to be too conservative at times, over a month ago we noted a historical pattern that bodes extremely well for gold stocks over the next few years. That outlook is reinforced by the continued historic value in the gold stocks as exhibited by the following charts.

Friday, December 22, 2017

Gold Stocks Coiled Spring Ready for Massive Breakout Upleg 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks largely ground sideways in 2017, lagging gold’s solid rally.  Being trapped in this vexing consolidation has decimated sentiment, leaving a bearish wasteland bereft of hope.  But contrary to perceptions, this deeply-out-of-favor sector is actually a coiled spring today.  Gold stocks are ready to surge dramatically higher as psychology inevitably shifts, pointing to much higher prices coming in 2018.

The main appeal of gold-mining stocks is their underlying profits’ leverage to gold.  The gold miners are much riskier than gold itself, facing many operational, geological, and geopolitical challenges that the metal doesn’t share.  Thus investors and speculators alike must be compensated for these large added risks with superior returns to gold.  That didn’t happen in 2017, which is why gold stocks are so widely despised.

Friday, December 22, 2017

Fed Unwinds, Gold Market Yawns / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In October, the Federal Reserve started the unwinding of its massive balance sheet. According to the addendum to the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans revealed in June 2017, Fed officials wanted to reduce the size of its security portfolio by $10 billion in October ($6 billion in Treasuries and $4 billion in the mortgage-backed assets). Let’s analyze whether this is really what happened, how the so-called quantitative tightening has influenced the financial markets so far, and what the Fed’s normalization would mean for the gold market.

Friday, December 22, 2017

Will Tax Bill Sink Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

This week, the U.S. Congress approved the tax bill. What does it mean for the gold market?

So it finally happened. After months of struggle, the U.S. lawmakers passed a tax reform on Wednesday. Now, Trump has to sign it into law. What’s in the final version? The bill maintains current seven tax brackets for individuals, but temporarily lowers most income levels and rates for each one. It also increases the standard deduction.

Friday, December 22, 2017

Short-term CRB Rally Driven Mainly by Oil / Commodities / CRB Index

By: Donald_W_Dony

The recent rebound strength in the Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB) has been underpinned by only a select few natural resources.

The CRB having completed a basing pattern in Q2/Q3 has rallied largely on the back of a single commodity - Light crude oil.

Copper prices have also contributed to the rebound, but the heavy lifting has gone to WTIC.

As near-term futures contracts point to $61 for oil and $3.25 for copper, the rebound maybe short-lived.