Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Gold Fundamentals Are Not Bullish Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Too many technical analysts dismiss fundamentals. True, technicals usually lead fundamentals but understanding the fundamental drivers (when it comes to Gold) can give you an edge. Gold and gold stocks have remained below their 2016 peaks even in the face of a very weak US Dollar because the fundamentals are not there. Real rates have been stable in 2017 while the yield curve has been flattening. Until things change, Gold and gold stocks have little chance to breakout.  

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Quotes, Gloats, and Anecdotes from the Silver & Gold Summit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldSilver

Jeff Clark : I attended the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco November 20 and 21. It was great connecting with the many people I know in the industry, but I will tell you that a) attendance was low, and b) crypto promoters were out in force. It turned out to be more of a gold and crypto conference than anything else. Some of the more lively sessions were the gold vs. crypto debates, and one company offered “free bitcoin!” if you opened an account with them.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

The Oil Information Cartel Is (Finally) Broken / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

By Keith Schaefer : The below article was written by Keith Schaefer of Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin

A determined James Stafford of OilPrice.com just busted wide open an oil industry information cartel that has existed for decades.

Most investors look at WTI and Brent prices at Bloomberg or CME Futures, and figure the oil price is in the public domain.  You would be about 2 percent correct, because there are hundreds of different grades of oil, and hubs where it is bought and sold.  And they all have different prices.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Gold's Global Supply Artery: Heading for Cardiac Arrest / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

By David Smith: An oceanic-scale demand push from "all parts Far East" is building, as the desire to own gold and silver promises to place an increasingly solid foundation for years to come.

China, India, and Southeast Asia have historically accumulated precious metal as a savings vehicle, a hedge against political uncertainty (e.g. India's surprise call-in last year of 80% of the country's paper currency), and as an expression of affection. China's newly-emerging affluent middle class alone is set to become larger than the population of the U.S. Frank Holmes collectively refers to these elements as "love and fear trades".

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

There’s No Silver Deficit, and Hasn’t Been One For 10 Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: David_Morgan

The ongoing debate in the industry is whether or not there is a surplus or a deficit of silver supply. However, to silver expert David Morgan of The Morgan Report, there hasn’t been a deficit in at least a decade. “In the past, we were in a deficit, from 1990 to 2006. From 2006 until now, we’ve been in a surplus,” he told Kitco News at the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco. “We are not and have not been in a silver deficit for the last 10 years.” However, Morgan remains optimistic that silver prices can move higher. “We have a good base here, we’re at the launch point in next 3-6 months,” he said. “2018 is going to be a good year for silver.”

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Inflation Target, Taylor Rule and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The central banks’ inability to achieve their inflation targets led some analysts to argue for modifying these targets. Are they inappropriate in a modern, globalized economy? Should central banks change them? Or should they conduct a more rule-based policy, as John Taylor argues? How would such moves affect the gold market?

As a reminder, the Fed (as well as other major central banks) targets 2-percent inflation. It may seem to be strange, as such a level is far away from the price stability (which, taken literally, means neither inflation nor deflation), which the central banks should are obliged to ensure. However, deflation is a central banks’ worst nightmare, so they want to have some buffer in case of negative demand shock. With the inflation target at zero, the margin of error would be very limited. But central banks have been missing their targets for years – should they change them?

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Tech Breakthrough Could Transform The Oil Sector / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

‘Implosive’ Silver Vulnerable To Big Price Drop / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Kelsey_Williams

Admittedly, it must sound encouraging, and even exciting, to hear proclamations that a “silver” lining is now apparent in the metals complex. Or that a silver “blast-off (is) about to happen”.

Expectations abound for the long-expected, vertical leap in silver prices that never seems to come. And we are told it is supported by solid fundamentals that include supply deficits, a return to the 16 to 1 gold/silver ratio, increasing monetary demand for silver, etc.However, an examination of those fundamentals reveals a different picture. And that picture is inconsistent with the call for higher prices.

Monday, November 27, 2017

OPEC Will Extend The Production Cut / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

There will be an OPEC deal extension—no matter the public tussling between opposing forces in the industry cartel—if the world's largest oil producers are really determined to end the supply glut.

A failure to agree on the market remediation would cause oil prices to plummet immediately, forfeiting any gains that have been made in the last year.

Saudi Arabia needs $60 per barrel for its Aramco initial public offering to be a success in the second half of next year. It plans to sell just five percent of its prized company in the largest IPO in financial history, but a low price could force the country to sell a larger share, siphoning off government revenues at a time of strained budgets.

Sunday, November 26, 2017

The Big Three Commodities : Copper, Oil and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to show you some long term charts for the big three, Copper, Oil and Gold. There are a lot of similarities between them which is strongly suggesting all three should be in new bull markets. The laggard is gold which has still not confirmed its new bull market but is getting closer as you will see. The key will be what the US dollar has up its sleeves so lets start with a daily chart for the US dollar.

The US dollar still hasn’t totally broken down yet, but it did have a failed inverse H&S bottom. It was a very beautiful and symmetrical H&S bottom that looked like it was going to reverse the downtrend that is right at a year old now. It had a nice clean breakout above the neckline with a clean backtest from above. All looked good. After a brief rally the US dollar declined once more to the neckline, but this time the neckline failed to hold support, strongly suggesting the H&S bottom was failing.

Saturday, November 25, 2017

Silver Mining Stocks Q3’17 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

The silver miners’ stocks have really languished this year, grinding sideways to lower for months on end.  This vexing consolidation has fueled near-universal bearishness, leaving silver stocks deeply out of favor.  But once a quarter when earnings season arrives, hard fundamentals pierce the obscuring veil of popular sentiment.  The silver miners’ recently-reported Q3’17 results reveal today’s silver prices remain profitable.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  These are generally due by 45 days after quarter-ends in the US and Canada.  They offer true and clear snapshots of what’s really going on operationally, shattering the misconceptions bred by the ever-shifting winds of sentiment.  There’s no silver-miner data that is more highly anticipated than quarterlies.

Saturday, November 25, 2017

Buy Gold As Fed Shows Uncertainty And Concern Over Financial ‘Imbalances’ / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– FOMC minutes show uncertainty and concern about markets are affecting officials’ decision-making
– Officials were cautious when evaluating market conditions and the ‘damaging effects on the economy’
– Worry about ‘potential buildup of financial imbalances’ and a sharp reversal in asset prices’
– Members seem oblivious to impact of inflation on households and savings
– Physical gold and silver remain the only assets for real diversification and safety

Thursday, November 23, 2017

Is This Gold Rally The Start Of Something Big? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

First published on Sunday Nov 19 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: While I would love to believe that the rally we saw on Friday is the start of the next larger degree break out in the metals complex for which many have been eagerly awaiting, there are many signs that suggest it is only part of a corrective rally.

Thursday, November 23, 2017

The Precious Metals Bears' Fear of Fridays / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Dimitri_Speck

In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I have shown that the gold price behaves quite peculiarly in the course of the trading week. On average, prices rise almost exclusively on Friday. It is as though investors in this market were mired in deep sleep for most of the week.

Upon this I received a plethora of inquiries from readers regarding the corresponding moves in silver.

Thus I examine the behavior of the silver market on individual days of the week in this issue of Seasonal Insights.

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Geopolitical Risk Highest “In Four Decades” – Global Gold Demand to Remain Robust / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Geopolitical risk highest “in four decades” should push gold higher – Citi
– Elections, political and macroeconomic crises and war lead to gold investment
– Political uncertainty in Germany means “gold likely to remain in good demand as a safe haven” say Commerzbank
–  “There has rarely been such political uncertainty in Germany at any time in the country’s post-war history” – Commerzbank
– Reduce counter party risk: own safe haven allocated and segregated gold

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Relationship between Crude Oil Price and Oil Stocks / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although verification of the last week breakdown under important resistance line pushed black gold under $56, oil bulls didn’t give up and triggered a pullback. What does it mean for light crude? Will the relationship between crude oil and oil stocks give us more clues about future moves?

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Harry Dent’s Gold Prediction Invalidated / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

We were recently asked to comment on Harry Dent’s predictions for the gold market and we thought that our reply might benefit other gold investors as well. To be precise, we were asked about Harry Dent’s 30-year cycle that supposedly peaked in 2011, and we supposedly could expect gold to peak again somewhere between 2038 and 2040 (you can watch the interview here). The indirect implication is that gold is not likely to soar sooner and that it’s likely to decline for a relatively long time.

Mr. Dent is referring to gold as a premier commodity and he claims that it moves up and down with the commodity cycle, which, in his opinion, is 30 years.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Gold Sector is On a Long-term Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

What History Says for Gold Stocks in 2018-2019 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It has been a while since we’ve applied historical analysis to the precious metals sector. It is something we really enjoy as history can help define and contextualize current trends and help us spot opportunities. Back in March of this year we noted that the gold stocks could be following the path of recovery of housing stocks since their 2009 bottom. Recently, James Flanagan of Gann Global Financial has produced some excellent videos discussing some historical comparisons that are quite relevant to the gold stocks at present. We saw his videos, remembered our housing analog and wanted to take it a step further. What was the path of recovery of markets following mega bear markets?

We define a mega bear market as at least an 80% decline that lasted roughly three to four years. The image below highlights the data we’ve compiled. Some of the bears are only two years long but they follow the general recovery path. That consists of a very strong initial rebound that lasts six to twelve months which is followed by a correction and consolidation which usually lasts 18 months to two years. Then, the market begins its next impulsive advance.

Monday, November 20, 2017

Crude Oil – General Market Link / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Thursday, the overall situation in crude oil hasn’t changed much as the commodity wavered around the January peak. Will the relationship between black gold and the general market give us more clues about future moves?

Crude Oil’s Technical Picture

Let’s examine the technical picture of the commodity (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).