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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Monday, November 23, 2015

US Dollar, CRB, Oil, Gas, Copper and Gold - The Chartology of Deflation / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Rambus_Chartology

About a month or so ago I started posting regularly on the possible inflection point I was seeing in regards to the deflationary trend that has been on going since 2011. As you know stocks move from a reversal or consolidation pattern in an impulse move which is much different than a sideways chopping action of a reversal or consolidation pattern. Impulse moves are the stored up energy that is released once a reversal or consolidation pattern is finished doing its job. About four weeks ago it looked like the most recent consolidation phase was coming to an end which would then leave the door opened to an impulse move.

At the first writing of the possible inflection point the US dollar was still trading within the confines of its possible bullish falling wedge which I viewed as a consolidation pattern to the upside. Shortly after that first post on the possible inflection point the US dollar broke out of its bullish falling wedge and is now approaching its previous high just above 100 or so. The US dollar is the key driver for this deflationary spiral that has been in place for over four years now with no light at the end of the tunnel for the commodities complex yet.

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Commodities

Monday, November 23, 2015

Will Gold Price Drop Below $1000 Soon? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Brad_Gudgeon

First of all I would like to say that last week was our best trading profit week ever since we began trading NUGT and DUST on August 19th of this year. Using e-wave, cycles, technical indicators and astrology, we were able to catch the bottom on GDX Wednesday around $13, expecting a move to cover the gap near $14.08 by Thursday or Friday (it tagged $14.06 on Thursday and on Friday $14.07). We then shorted the miners via DUST when GDX went above $14 a share. GDX ended Friday at $13.40.

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Commodities

Monday, November 23, 2015

Gold and Silver Sector Big Green Light and Low Risk Entry Setup... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

  • Have the problems exposed by the financial crisis of 2008 been addressed and dealt with to any extent? - no they have not, they have been papered over by creating more debt and printing money, thus making the underlying problems much worse.

  • Has debt shrunk since 2008? - no, it has exploded.

  • Has the money supply contracted since 2008? - no, it has expanded massively.

  • Has the derivatives pyramid been reduced in magnitude since 2008? - no it has continued to compound.

  • Has the global economy grown sufficiently in the years since 2008 to more than cover the extra load imposed by the growth in the factors listed above? No, it has not, all it is has done is limp along, lamed by debt.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Gold D-Wave / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Savage

The D-wave came back down to test the previous consolidation zone.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Long Dollar Trade and Current Copper Price Below Cost of Production / Commodities / Copper

By: EconMatters

Long Dollar Trade

One of the common trades in financial markets these days is going long the US Dollar and shorting Commodities, especially the precious and industrial metals. This has been a bad year for commodities, and this trade has picked up steam with large fund flows the last 6 weeks.
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Commodities

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Gold a Bargain in Real Terms / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_J_Kosares

For those you who like to break things down to the fundamentals, this chart should serve as an eye-opener.  Why?  Because it tells us gold’s value in real terms when adjusted to depreciation in the purchasing power of the dollar.  Secondly, it tells us where gold stands today with respect to past peaks in the price – once again in real terms – thus providing an indicator whether or not it is a good buy at current prices.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Gold And Silver - Value Of Knowing The Trend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

Every once in a while, we reiterate the importance of knowing the trend, in fact, calling the trend the number one piece of information. From it, everything else follows, in terms of knowing in which direction to base trade decisions.

2014 and 2015 were viewed as turnaround years for gold and silver, with expectations that price would rally to new, never before seen prices. In a little over a month, 2015 ends and 2016 begins right after. It is possible that 2016 may bring more of the same: disappointing expectations for PMs performance. It is just a possibility, for no one knows for certain how the future will unfold. What we do know for certain is that in order for PMs to rally, they must first stop going down.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Bracing for Another Breakdown in Gold Miners GDXJ and GDX / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The bear market in the gold miners has been one for the record books but it is not over yet. Last week we noted that precious metals were on the cusp of making new lows while the US$ index was very close to another key breakout. This scenario remains well in play and would certainly affect the gold mining sector, which over the past two weeks failed to rebound or build on any strength.

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Commodities

Friday, November 20, 2015

GDX Gold Miners’ Strong Q3 Results / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

The beleaguered gold-mining sector continues to be plagued by monumental universal bearishness.  Nearly everyone assumes the gold miners are doomed, that they can’t survive for long in a sub-$1200-gold environment.  But this belief is totally wrong, a consequence of extreme fear’s fog of war.  The gold miners’ underlying earnings fundamentals remain very strong, as evidenced by their recent Q3 results.

In all the stock markets, corporate profits ultimately drive stock prices.  Because a stock simply represents a fractional stake in its underlying company’s future earnings stream, all stock prices eventually revert to some reasonable multiple of those profits.  These earnings are truly the only fundamental driver of stock prices.  All deviations from righteous valuations based on profits are just the temporary products of herd sentiment.

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Commodities

Friday, November 20, 2015

Gold and the Reverse Goldfinger Effect / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

In 1964 Sean Connery starred in the movie “Goldfinger” in which the villain, a wealthy Brit named Goldfinger, attempted to revalue his personal gold hoard higher by a factor of 10.  His plan was to detonate an atomic bomb inside Fort Knox making the US gold radioactive for hundreds of years.  With the Fort Knox gold hoard, the largest in the world at that time, effectively unavailable the global price of gold would increase at least ten times from the 1964 price of approximately $35.00 per ounce.  Bond, James Bond, thwarted the dastardly plot and saved the US gold, the US dollar, and the US government.

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Commodities

Friday, November 20, 2015

Crude Oil Price - Where is it Headed? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Sol_Palha

All this talk and turmoil and noise and movement and desire is outside of the veil; within the veil is silence and calm and rest. ~ Bayazid Al-Bistami

On the 19th of this month, two articles were published at the same time, one stating that oil could go to $26 and the other stating that oil is ready to trade to $80. Which one is it going to be, $26 or $80 and how is the average Joe going to be able to discern which one is a depiction of what lies ahead. This is the problem with today's mass media, in their quest to attract eyeballs, bombastic and often conflicting articles are published simultaneously. One almost feels that most of the major sites have only one agenda, quantity over quality.

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Commodities

Friday, November 20, 2015

Silver Prices and The Management of Perception / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Silver prices and the management of perception economics, that's basically what MOPE stands for. I'm not sure if it was Jim Sinclair that coined that acronym. I think it was, but that's where I heard it for the first time.

It's appropriate to have a subsection of propaganda for economics and finance, so this management of perception economics. It’s basically a system or an extension of generalized propaganda. You can also call it social engineering. You could call it a public relations campaign. In fact, public relations is just a PC term for propaganda. The specific type of propaganda that is associated with finance and economics is this management of perception economics.

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Commodities

Friday, November 20, 2015

Waiting for Goldot Again / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

In August of 2005 I wrote an article entitled Waiting for Goldot.  It seems silly now but the mood of the time was one of frustration for many gold bugs as the S&P 500 was on a robo grind upward and gold was seemingly going nowhere.  The theme of the article was to have patience, gold was just fine.  Of course, that period was in the midst of a more traditional inflation, when gold and commodities out performed stocks.  So any measure of patience then was a tiny thing compared to what is needed today.

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Commodities

Friday, November 20, 2015

Michael Curran Goes Down-Market Shopping for Gold Stock Winners / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: The_Gold_Report

Most of the low-cost gold producers are fairly valued, says Michael Curran, managing director and mining analyst with Beacon Securities, so he's heading down-market to the advanced development opportunities and early-stage explorers that he thinks could become low-cost producers. Sure there is risk, as Curran explains in this interview with The Gold Report, but the reward could come via either a takeover bid by an established producer seeking to lower its overall costs or by supporting these companies as they transition into emerging producers.

The Gold Report: Please give us two or three key investment themes that you envisage happening in the mining equities space in 2016.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Saudis Planning For A War Of Attrition In Europe With Russia's Oil Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Russia's central bank recently warned about the growing financial risks to the Russian economy from Saudi Arabia encroaching upon its traditional export market for crude oil. Russia sends 70 percent of its oil to Europe, but Saudi Arabia has been making inroads in the European market amid the oil price downturn.

The result is a heavier discount for Russia's crude oil, the so-called Urals blend. Bloomberg reported that the Urals typically lands in Rotterdam, a major European destination, at a discount to Brent of around $2 or less. But the discount has widened to $3.50 lately due to increased competition from Saudi Arabia. "Oil supplies to Europe from Saudi Arabia are probably adversely affecting Urals prices," the Russian central bank warned in a recent report.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Gold Stocks Buckle / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

There is absolutely nothing good that can be said about the mining stocks at this point. Then again, there has been little good to say about these things for a long, long time.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

A Half-Century of Gold, War, and Costs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

In round numbers, these wars (in today’s dollars) were tremendously expensive:

Vietnam War:  Estimated cost is $740 Billion

War on Drugs:  Estimated cost is $1,000 Billion

War on Terror, including Afghanistan and Iraq:  Estimated cost is $1,700 Billion and counting

War on Poverty:  Estimated cost is $22,000 Billion

Total estimated war costs – about $25 Trillion.  Really?  Value received?

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Three Shocking Charts That Prove Gold Price Rally Is Coming / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Investment_U

Sean Brodrick writes: I thought I’d seen the most shocking gold chart this year. Turns out I was wrong.

Lately, I’m seeing one chart after another that paints a picture in stark contrast to current low prices in the metal.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Is COMEX the Center of World Silver Price Discovery? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

In our recent LIVE Q&A interview with renowned silver analyst, Ted Butler, the following question came up. Below is the transcript of Butler’s response.

Ted:       Its a great question. COMEX is the center of the gold and silver universe.

Technically, there is trading on these other exchanges. Take the LBMA for example.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Gold Price Hovering Above Support / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

Just as the Euro is hanging by a thread above its chart support zone, so too is gold hanging by a thread above a critical chart support zone. The bottom of that zone is the July low near $1070 with the zone extending upward towards $1080.

Gold drew a bit of support in today’s session ( Monday) out of safe haven buying tied to the horrific carnage in Paris but as is always the case with gold, rallies that come from geopolitical events, generally do not last long, especially when the underlying fundamentals for gold are as poor as they currently are.

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