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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Saturday, November 14, 2015

Do Credit Spreads Move the Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Although the bond prices do not drive the price of gold, the spreads between prices of bonds or yields - the different sides of one coin - with different risk level may be an important factor for the gold market. Why? Credit spread is a spread between two securities that are almost identical, except for quality rating. Because Treasuries are considered practically risk-free, they constitute a benchmark to which other bonds are compared. Thus, credit spread usually shows a spread between Treasury securities and identical (except rating) non-Treasuries. In other words, credit spread indicates the risk premium for investing in one (risky) security over another (considered to have almost no risk).

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Commodities

Friday, November 13, 2015

Absurd Gold Stock Levels / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold stocks have suffered heavy collateral damage following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish surprise late last month, which ignited enormous gold-futures selling by American speculators.  This devastated sector has been battered back down near last summer’s deep secular lows.  But these gold-stock price levels are fundamentally absurd, the product of extreme and irrational sentiment that can’t persist for long.

Today’s gold-stock price levels are the greatest fundamental disconnect in the entire stock markets, an epic opportunity for contrarian investors and speculators!  The entire gold-mining industry is trading as if the price of gold, the overwhelmingly-dominant driver of its profits, was just a small fraction of prevailing levels.  Gold stocks are radically underpriced fundamentally based on their current and future earnings power.

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Commodities

Friday, November 13, 2015

The “Bloodbath” in Canada Is Far From Over / Commodities / Canada

By: Casey_Research

By Justin Spittler

The oil price crash continues to claim victims…and many of them are in Canada.

The price of oil hovered around $100 for most of last summer. Today, it’s trading for less than $45.

Weak oil prices have pummeled huge oil companies. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), which tracks the performance of major U.S. oil producers, has declined 36% over the past year. The Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH), which tracks U.S. oil services companies, has declined 30% since last November.

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Commodities

Friday, November 13, 2015

Russia Sees Gold Reserves As “Additional Financial Cushion” In Face Of “External Uncertainties” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

- Gold and FX reserves are “additional financial cushion” for state in face of “external uncertainties”
– Russia bought another 77 tonnes of gold in Q3
– Ruble volatility does not create risks for financial stability in Russia
– Russia intends building fx and gold reserves to $500 billion in coming years
– Gold is a “100% guarantee from legal and political risks”

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Commodities

Friday, November 13, 2015

Crude Oil and Gold Daily Cycles / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Gary_Savage

Oil has confirmed a failed daily cycle. That's not good news and probably means the 3 year cycle low will now get stretched out to early spring.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Copper Monthly, Aussie Jobs Soar, but Capex far from Done / Commodities / Copper

By: Ashraf_Laidi

It's not the first time an Australian jobs report shows employment growth rise five times more than expected. Whether it will be revised downwards or not, it is undoubtedly reflecting partial strength in the nation's labour market. Australia added a net 58.8K jobs in September; over four times expectations, the highest increase in 3 ½ years and the 3rd biggest jump over the last 15 years. Remarkably, 40K of the 58.8K increase emerged from full time jobs, while only 18.6K was from part time employment. The 231.7K increase jobs in the first 10 months of the year showed the its biggest annual gain since 2010.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Silver Price Slide in Early Phase / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: AnyOption

Commodity deflation has left no stone unturned and precious metals have not come away unscathed.  Although promising as a store of value, recent moves by the Federal Reserve have seen some uncertainty surrounding Central Bank decision-making abate.  Confidence in a December rate hike is high following a blockbuster jobs report that saw nonfarm payrolls surge to the highest level since December of 2014.  Although current Fed Funds futures are rising towards the 70% threshold for liftoff at the mid-December FOMC meeting, the pressure is on for precious metals.  A weak consumer inflationary dynamic combined with far-reaching commodity deflation is seeing investors abandon haven assets in favor of yield.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Rejecting the Keystone Pipeline / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

All thinking and rational students of economics and political policy should take note of the triumphed message sent out by the CREDO Action progressive group. The strategy to organize a massive civil disobedience confrontation has been absent from the public square for far too long. However, when the cause is so ill founded and based upon foolish economic realities, the protesting activists need to rethink their falsely placed suppositions.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Is There a Bright Spot in Energy Commodities? / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: The_Energy_Report

Demand for commodities is in the doldrums, but the fundamentals of uranium and lithium are favorable when compared with other materials, says Paul Renken, mining analyst for VSA Capital Ltd. In this interview with The Energy Report, Renken notes that rising demand for batteries will soon exert pressure on lithium production capacity and that well-placed uranium juniors are in position to meet demand from nuclear power plants now in development. Investors must be patient, but diligent selection will be rewarded.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Gold, Stocks and the Elect a President Cycle Silly Season / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

The Silly Season – the Elect a President Cycle – is upon us.  We pretend the candidates matter and care about the American public and their values, we pretend the election is important, and we forget that the outcome is heavily influenced and/or controlled by Wall Street and the Military.

Hillary Clinton:  “What difference does it make?”

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Political Climate Shifting Against The Oil And Gas Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil and gas companies have had a tough time over the past year trying to weather the storm of falling oil prices. But the political and financial winds are moving in the wrong direction for the industry, raising more "above ground" problems at a time that they can ill-afford it.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

One of America’s Largest Online Retailers Is Stockpiling Gold and Silver Coins to Pay Employees In Coming Crisis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

One of America’s largest companies is preparing for problems in the banking and financial system and another financial crisis.

Online retail giant Overstock.com (OSTK), publicly stated that the company has stockpiled gold and silver coins in preparation for another U.S. financial crisis. Patrick Byrne, its founder and chief executive, is a libertarian who champions crypto currencies, bitcoin and gold and silver bullion as financial insurance against risk in the financial and monetary system.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Plunger’s Gold Bottom Watch / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Plunger

That’s where it appears we are now, the final drive to the bottom. Rambus’ weekend charts still show how bearish the PM charts are and it will take a lot of work to turn them around and get them pointed back up, Having said that I see the initial components we should expect to see of a bottom and turn entering into the picture. Call these pathway elements as they come before the bottom and take a bit of time to have their effect of bringing about the turn. First off what will propel the next bull leg in the PM stocks is the investment case for metal stocks. That is primary defined by the real price of gold and input costs into mines, That has been improving for over one year now. Mainly driven by the oil price, which imputes itself into all costs of a mining operation. Cheaper oil impacts not just extraction cost but costs of materials, explosives, those big expensive truck tires etc. Plus communities and governments are warming up to mining projects. Ecuador is a case in point, since oil revenue is down they need taxes from other sources and the mining sector is becoming favored again. Here is a view of the gold/oil relationship, note how the trend (30 EMA) is higher.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Gold Price Falls Through Key Technical Support, Must Hold Above $1,072 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jason_Hamlin

It has been a rough few weeks for gold investors, as the price has experienced a waterfall decline of over $100. First, the price dropped through key support at both the 200-day and 100-day moving averages. Then it proceeded to violate the uptrend (green line) that has been in place since July and support at the September low of $1,097.

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Commodities

Monday, November 09, 2015

Gold Price Breakdown Could Result in Slide to $800 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

The predictions made in the recent past for the dollar to rally and gold and silver to drop have proven to be correct. Gold has now dropped for 8 days in a row as we can see on its 3-month chart below, which common sense dictates is increasing the chances of a bounce soon, especially as Commercial short positions eased significantly last week and gold is arriving at a support level in an oversold condition. Gold is oversold relative to its moving averages, which are in bearish alignment.

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Commodities

Monday, November 09, 2015

Silver Price Forecast Plunge to as Low as $10 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

The last update posted on 18th October called a top in silver, and that is what it turned out to be. On its 3-month chart we can see that silver broke down from a small Head-and-Shoulders top at the end of October and then went into a steady day after day decline with the result that it has dropped now for 7 trading days in a row. While it could drop further towards or to the support shown, it is getting short-term oversold and is increasingly likely to bounce soon. As with gold this weakness was triggered by dollar strength, with the dollar rising sharply on Friday in response to a stronger than expected jobs report which the market thinks makes an interest rate rise more likely.

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Commodities

Monday, November 09, 2015

China’s Central Bank Buys Another 14 Tons of Gold … Bullion Falls To 3 Month Low / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

- PBOC declared gold reserves now about 55.38 million troy ounces or 1,722.5 metric tonnes

- Central bank gold rose to $63.26 billion by end-month – less than 2% of $3.53 trillion FX reserves

- China disclosed on July 17th that its gold holdings had surged 57% since 2009

- China officially owns around 1,720 tonnes of gold  –  true total figure likely much larger

- China’s total gold holdings much higher as also owns gold in CIC

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Commodities

Monday, November 09, 2015

The Big Silver ETF - Silver and Physical Inventory Part 2 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

In a follow up to last week's excerpt from out recent Q&A with Ted Bulter, questions were asked warehouse movement in other commodities and about the big ETF...

Are you seeing the frantic movement of metal in other commodities markets?

Do you believe the ETF’s are actually backed by physical metal?

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Commodities

Saturday, November 07, 2015

Gold and Silver Precious Metals Sector Due for Bounce, but… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals sector has declined sharply in recent weeks with no pause or intermittent breaks in the decline. Including today, Gold is down eight consecutive days and 16 of the past 18 days. The gold miners (GDX) have lost roughly 20% in the past seven days. The sector is extremely oversold in the short term and a reflex rally culd begin in the next few days. While Gold and gold bugs should get temporary relief, the larger picture remains quite bearish.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 07, 2015

Shorts Savage Gold After Fed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has enjoyed a strong new uptrend in recent months following last summer’s extreme gold-futures shorting attack.  But speculators returned with a vengeance this past week, aggressively dumping gold futures again following a hawkish surprise by the Fed.  The resulting gold plunge shattered its support, and thrust sentiment back into hyper-bearish territory.  But gold-futures shorting soon reverses to big buying.

In recent years the gold-futures trading by American speculators has utterly dominated the gold price.  With investors still missing in action thanks to the Fed’s astounding stock-market levitation, speculators’ reign is unchallenged.  Gold is not only at the mercy of their mercurial sentiment, the leveraged nature of futures speculation grants their collective trades an outsized impact on gold’s price.  They rule the roost today.

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