Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, July 27, 2015
Gold Bear Market Phase III / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Submissions
Plunger writes: Over 2 years ago I presented my first analysis of this precious metals bear market. After extensive study of the characteristics of past bear markets, I forecast a brutal bear market that would undergo three psychological stages. The third stage would be a wrenching decline that would ultimately reach levels so shocking that it would cause the destruction of the gold investment class. My analysis, which was dubbed Plunger's Flush, was met not just with skepticism but outright derision. I believe I know how Galileo felt.
Monday, July 27, 2015
Silver Bull Hammer Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Clive_Maund
During gold's takedown over a week ago, silver rather surprisingly escaped relatively unscathed, a resilience that we can put down to this market already being very depressed, with its COTs showing little speculative interest even before the latest drop.
On its 6-month chart we can see that, like gold, silver put in a fine bull hammer on Friday on good volume, and this, along with evidence elsewhere across the sector, suggests that a short-term rally is in the offing, even if the outlook remains bleak over the longer-term. Silver is a trading buy here with a stop beneath Friday's intraday low.
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Monday, July 27, 2015
Gold Cracks Support and Plunges to New Lows - How Low Will Price Go? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Clive_Maund
Gold cracked support and plunged to new lows since the last update, which came as no surprise to us. So what now? We are seeing signs that a recovery rally is about to begin, but it probably won't get all that far before a new downleg gets underway that sees gold make new lows again.
It's not just gold prices that are suffering - the entire commodity complex is in ragged retreat, with steep falls also in copper and oil. Why is this? The reason is that the gathering forces of deflation are starting to wreak havoc, and they are not going to be stopped by more QE - even if they print another $10 trillion to throw at the problem. The reason is that the debt mountain dwarfs whatever QE can be generated, and the deflation will continue until this debt is purged. Governments are like greedy short-sighted children - they are not interested in doing what is right and behaving with restraint and propriety, if they were they would have taken control of the debt crisis long ago.
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Sunday, July 26, 2015
Commodity Markets Breakdown Of 2015 Is Now A Fact / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldSilverWorlds
We wrote on July 5th that markets are increasingly looking scary. Now, only 3 weeks later, the situation seems to be escalating.
Let’s get it straight: this is a serious deflationary bust in the making. The most worrisome fact is Dr. Copper’s technical breakdown, as seen on the first chart.
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Sunday, July 26, 2015
Gold Price at a Five-Year Low: Here’s What to Do / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Gold prices crashed Monday as panicked sellers drove the yellow metal to its lowest level since 2002 before recovering to a five-year low. More significantly, they broke the $1,130/oz “floor” which had previously been regarded as a solid support level – a key indicator to me that the downdraft wasn’t over.
So I wasn’t surprised to see gold prices finish yesterday’s U.S. trading session modestly lower – but that doesn’t mean I was any less excited, either.
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Saturday, July 25, 2015
Central Banks and Our Dysfunctional Gold Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: MISES
Marcia Christoff-Kurapovna writes: Many investors still view gold as a safe-haven investment, but there remains much confusion regarding the extent to which the gold market is vulnerable to manipulation through short-term rigged market trades, and long-arm central bank interventions. First, it remains unclear whether or not much of the gold that is being sold as shares and in certificates actually exists. Second, paper gold can theoretically be printed into infinity just like regular currency — although private-sector paper-gold sellers have considerably less leeway in this regard than central banks. Third, new electronic gold pricing — replacing, as of this past February, the traditional five-bank phone-call of the London Gold Fix in place since 1919 — has not necessarily proved a more trustworthy model. Fourth, there looms the specter of the central bank, particularly in the form of volume trading discounts that commodity exchanges offer them.
Saturday, July 25, 2015
Gold And Silver - The US Dollar Does Not Exist, Part II / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Michael_Noonan
Truth does not exist in the world of politics.
It is reasons such as these, below, that drives the importance of owning and holding physical silver and gold. The fundamental reasons everyone already knows exists but do not apply are important, but the power of the elites to rule over all [at least Western] governments, write the laws, deceive everyone, and now with the evidence of how much influence the bankers can exert over the manipulation of PM prices, is why you need to protect yourself from the evil nature of their control.
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Friday, July 24, 2015
Does Jewelry or Central Bank Demand Drive the Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
We have already shown that neither mining production, nor technological demand drives gold prices, since gold – thanks to its uniquely high stock-to-flows – resembles an asset rather than commodity. Before we look at the drivers of gold investment demand, we have to analyze the role of jewelry demand and central bank buying in the gold price formation. These two categories are often considered as important drivers for the gold price, but are they really? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 24, 2015
Absurd Gold Stock Levels / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold stocks suffered a full-blown panic this past week! This exceedingly-rare magnitude of selloff was triggered by extreme futures shorting intentionally executed to force a flash crash in gold. After gold’s major multi-year support failed in this Machiavellian onslaught, gold stocks plummeted. The levels of fear were so epic that this entire sector was slammed much deeper into fundamentally-absurd price territory.
Friday, July 24, 2015
Gold Mining Stocks Nearing Rebound / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Recently we've been writing about the downside potential in precious metals and the danger for precious metals bulls. The gold miners and Silver have led the rout while Gold finally cracked support ($1140-$1150/oz) last week. That led to a severe selloff across the complex. As we pen this on Thursday evening it appears Friday could be a nasty day if Gold breaks below $1080/oz. Nevertheless, the odds now favor a rebound in the weeks ahead and especially in the gold miners.
Friday, July 24, 2015
Gold Stock Carnage Continues Unabated / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Dan_Norcini
There is still no sign of any serious buying occurring in the gold mining sector. The HUI continues to plummet lower and has fallen to levels last seen in October and November of 2002! This is simply astonishing for its ferocity.
Friday, July 24, 2015
Commodities Distressed Investing / Commodities / Investing 2015
By: John_Mauldin
When most people think of distressed investing, they think of buying CCC-rated bonds at 20 or 30 cents on the dollar, then maybe sitting in bankruptcy court to divvy up the capital structure, making healthy risk-adjusted returns in the end. You just need to hire a few lawyers.
Distressed investors are a different breed of cat. It’s one of those countercyclical businesses, like repo men, who do well when everyone else is getting hammered.
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Friday, July 24, 2015
OPEC Shorts Are Driving Down the Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com
Dr. Kent Moors writes: The conflict between OPEC and U.S. shale/tight oil producers has entered a new phase. And the result has been an accelerated decline in oil prices.
Last November (on Thanksgiving no less), Saudi Arabia led an OPEC decision to hold production stable, followed by a later significant increase in volume. For the first time, the cartel had opted to protect market share rather than price.
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Friday, July 24, 2015
Gold Stocks Bear Market Bottom Buying Opportunity? - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The early year gold price rally soon peaked in mid January 2015 at $1307 that had fooled many gold bugs into assuming that the preceding multi-year bear market was finally over and that 2015 would see a strong price rally to possibly even new all time highs! However, so far 2015 has seen a series of failed rally's rolling over into downtrends to new lows, punctuated by flash crash days such as that which took place on the 19th of July that saw a series of flash crashes that lasted no more than a couple of seconds that took the gold price to well under $1,100, to a new five year low of $1080 before recovering a little to $1,100.
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Did Gold Stocks Just Bottom? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: "Perhaps today was capitulation in the gold market," a CEO of a gold-mining company told me in an e-mail Monday evening...
Gold-exploration stocks had just lost 14% of their value in two days – based on the gold-exploration stocks fund, the Global X Gold Explorers Fund (GLDX). This CEO thought it could be the bottom in gold-exploration companies.
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Thursday, July 23, 2015
Gold and Silver Falling, Coiling - The Slow Blues / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Jesse
"At its very inception this movement depended on the deception and betrayal of one's fellow man; even at that time it was inwardly corrupt and could support itself only by constant lies...
If at the start this cancerous growth in the nation was not particularly noticeable, it was only because there were still enough forces at work that operated for the good, so that it was kept under control. As it grew larger, however, and finally in an ultimate spurt of growth attained ruling power, the tumor broke open, as it were, and infected the whole body.
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Thursday, July 23, 2015
Commodity Prices, Gold and Silver Stocks Next Leg Down / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Rambus_Chartology
There is a lot to go over tonight in regards to commodities and the precious metals complex. A while back I wrote a report on the commodities in general getting ready for the next possible leg down which will fuel the deflationary pressures that really took hold last about this time. That's when the US dollar finally broke out of its massive base and charged higher topping out in March of this year and has been consolidating those gains ever since. Lets start by looking at the big base the US dollar broke out of last year at this time and the strong impulse move up as shown by the string of white candlesticks. That's what a strong impulse move looks like when all the pent up energy finally has a change to escape.
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Gold and Gibson's Paradox / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Alasdair_Macleod
There is a myth prevalent today that the gold price always falls when interest rates rise. The logic is that when interest rates rise it is more expensive to hold gold, which just sits there not earning anything. And since markets discount future expectations, gold will even fall when a rise in interest rates is expected. With the Fed's Open Market Committee debating the timing of an interest rate rise to take place possibly in September, it is therefore no surprise to market commentators that the gold price continues its bear market. Only the myth is just that: a myth denied by empirical evidence.
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Gold Price Smash Leads to Surge in Demand For Coins, Bars Around World / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
- U.S. Mint sees highest monthly gold eagle sales in over two years
- Indians take advantage of low price in a season not typically known for gold buying
- Chinese investors, disillusioned with stock market, are buying gold in large volumes
- Demand for coins from Perth Mint 37% higher in June and even higher for July
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Crude Oil Price Slump is a Once in a Decade Opportunity to Make Money, Guaranteed / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Atlantic_Perspective
All investments carry risk. There are no safe investments in the sense that “you just can´t lose”. But risk can be greatly reduced, according to the entry point and the timespan of the investment.The commodities cycle
The world is currently awashed in oil and natural gas. This is the reality of today. But as sure as day follows night, this glut will turn into production deficit over the next few years. All commodities traders know this and have seen gluts turn into deficits dozens of times, in different markets. Why does this happen?
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