Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, November 27, 2014
Crude Oil Asset Bubble Trouble / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Nothing Ikonic about the Gold / Oil Ratio
Assuming for discussion that a 15-to-1 ratio between the price of I Troy ounce of gold and 1 barrel of oil is a long-term average or “ikonic ratio”, ( http://www.zealllc.com/2005/gorex2.htm) this would apply for $2 oil and $30 gold as much as $120 oil and $1800 gold. But the asset bubbles built around oil and gold would be rather different, each time. Also, coming down and off highs for the gold price, or for the oil price, there would be major bloodshed among the related overpriced and now-irrational asset values, but in the case of oil assets this will include national budgets, national FX values and even global economic growth. Deflating an oil asset bubble has a lot more ramifying impacts than coming down from a high for gold.
Thursday, November 27, 2014
Silver Bear Still Looms Despte 10% Price Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Joseph_Russo
Rallying 10% from recent lows silver is nearing resistance
Per our last update, the prospect for some sort of pivotal turn-date occurring near Thanksgiving appears to be setting up as a plausible short-term pivot high rather than a long-term secular low. As I suggested weeks ago, this rally came as no surprise.
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
A Short Tale About the Grand Manipulation of Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Happy Thanksgiving from Dubai.
I’ll have much more to tell you about my meetings in Paris, Frankfurt, and here on the Persian Gulf coast next week.
But today I’d like to fill you in on an interesting wrinkle I’ve uncovered dealing with the ongoing saga of why oil prices are so low.
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Wednesday, November 26, 2014
China Secret Gold Buying ... How Could It Happen? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: John_Mauldin
By Grant Williams
“How could it happen, Grandad?”
The old man’s eyes misted over as he looked down at his grandson, who sat at his feet, his young eyes alive with questions as he turned the heavy gold bar over in his hands.
”I’ve told you the story too many times to count,” said the man, half-pleading, but knowing full-well he’d soon be deep into the umpteenth retelling of a story he’d lived through once in reality and a thousand times more through the eager questioning of the young man now tugging at his trouser leg. “Why don’t I tell you the story of how I met your Grandma instead?”
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Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Gold and Silver Refreshing Resilience / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jesse
Gold and silver held their prices well today with silver actually gaining some ground. Not bad for the day after a Comex option expiration.
This Friday the December contract becomes active on first notice, so we might see some changes in open interest.
Not much to report in the delivery category, but the Comex warehouse show the continued drip, drip of bullion out of their domains.
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Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Nuclear Energy Returns to Japan, Forces Uranium to Step Up Its Game / Commodities / Nuclear Power
By: Jeff_Opdyke
A funny thing happened on the way to a nuclear-free world — Japan realized what a stupid idea that was.
You will probably recall that in the wake of the earthquake/tsunami/Fukushima nuclear disaster Japan shuttered its 50 nuclear power plants, which were supplying between 30% and 40% of the island-nation’s electricity needs. For the first time in more than three decades, Japan was totally dependent on non-nuclear fuels. The country became a poster-child for a nuclear-free future, and countries including Germany, Italy, Sweden and others followed suit, announcing they, too, would phase-out nuclear energy.
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Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Gold Price Spikes to $1,467.50/oz on Computer Glitch? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
Gold spiked higher in many price feeds overnight and was $270 higher or more than 22% higher to $1,467.50/oz at one stage in what appears to have been some form of computer glitch.
There was speculation that the price spike which came while the COMEX was closed for 30 minutes was due to a series of charting errors or misprints, a bad price feed or a computer glitch. Another example of how technology is a great enabler but can also be a great disabler.
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Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Gold - So Bad It's Good: Surviving 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: The_Gold_Report
As we approach Thanksgiving in the States, Streetwise Reports reached out to some of our most popular experts for perspective on the natural resource market during this volatile time. While some thought 2014 was so bad it was good—for contrarian investors—others will be all too happy to see the year in the rearview mirror.
Streewise Reports: What is the 2014 development for which you are most grateful?
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Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Follow The Sand To The Real Fracking Boom / Commodities / Fracking
By: OilPrice_Com
When it takes up to four million pounds of sand to frack a single well, it's no wonder that demand is outpacing supply and frack sand producers are becoming the biggest behind-the-scenes beneficiaries of the American oil and gas boom.
Demand is exploding for "frac sand"--a durable, high-purity quartz sand used to help produce petroleum fluids and prop up man-made fractures in shale rock formations through which oil and gas flows--turning this segment into the top driver of value in the shale revolution.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Swiss Gold Referendum A Golden Opportunity for Switzerland / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Thorsten_Polleit
The referendum on the Swiss Gold Initiative will take place on November 30.1 The Initiative demands the following: (1) The Swiss National Bank (SNB) shall be prohibited from selling any of its gold reserves; (2) the SNB’s gold reserves must be stored in Switzerland; and (3) the SNB must keep at least 20 percent of its assets in gold (i.e., the “20-percent rule”).
The balance sheet of the SNB currently amounts to 522.3bn CHF (Swiss francs), with its gold holdings and claims from gold transactions amounting to 39.4bn CHF. The share of gold of the SNB’s assets is therefore about 7.5 percent — substantially lower than what the Initiative calls for.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Silver: What COT Analysis Tells Us / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: DeviantInvestor
Each week the CFTC publishes a Commitments of Traders Report (COT) in which “non-commercial” and “commercial” long and short futures positions are reported. Many people have expressed doubts as to the validity, accuracy and consistency of the data. However, my experience is that the data is mostly relevant, accurate, and useful in the long term, but not necessarily important each week.
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
U.S. Dollar Near Top? Gold and Silver Trading, Platinum Breakout Invalidation / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Yesterday was a day when the precious metals market took a breather, but it's not true that nothing changed at all. Friday's breakout in platinum was invalidated. Is this a "short again" signal?
In short, not really, because this signal - even though it's bearish - is not enough to make the situation very bearish on its own.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Gold Price Forecast 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: EWI
Greetings,
I just read a special report on a major market development you should be aware of, right now ......
A potentially BIG near- to intermediate-term opportunity in GOLD, a market no one else wants to talk about.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
The Swiss Referendum On Gold: What’s Missing From The Debate / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldSilverWorlds
This article is written by Eric Schreiber, independent asset manager, former head of commodities UBP, former head of precious metals Credit Suisse Zurich. All views expressed are his and may not reflect those of his former employers.
The Swiss will vote on a referendum on November 30th that would ban the Swiss National Bank (SNB) from selling current and future gold reserves, repatriate foreign stored gold holdings to Switzerland, and mandate that gold must comprise a minimum of 20% of central bank assets. The SNB does not usually comment on political referendums. However, in this case it has done so quite vocally.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Where Is the Price of Crude Oil Price Going? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions with a stop-loss at $72.78 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil gained 0.47% as Thursday's solid U.S. data and talks that OPEC may consider trimming production continued to support the commodity. As a result, light crude left the recent consolidation and closed the day above $76. Will we see a rally to $80 in the coming days?
On Friday, crude oil climbed to an intraday high of $77.83 as the combination of solid U.S. data continued to support the commodity. How did this increase affected the very short-term picture of crude oil? (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Monday, November 24, 2014
The Gold Clock is Ticking in Switzerland / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Peter_Schiff
For most of my career in international investing, I had always placed a great deal of faith in Switzerland's financial markets. In recent years, however, as the Swiss government has sought to hitch its wagon to the flailing euro currency and kowtow increasingly to U.S.-based financial requirements, this faith has been shaken. But this week (November 30th) a referendum in Switzerland on whether its central bank will be required to hold at least 20% of its reserves in gold, will offer ordinary Swiss citizens a rare opportunity to reclaim their country's strong economic heritage. It's a vote that few outside Switzerland are following, but the outcome could make an enormous impact on the global economy.
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Monday, November 24, 2014
Why Gold Price is Headed Much Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Pento
What really drives the price of gold? Some say it's a fear gauge. Others prefer to look at the demand coming from the Indian wedding season. But the silliest of all conclusions to reach is that the dollar price of gold should be determined solely by its value vis-à-vis another fiat currency.
The truth is the primary driver of gold is the intrinsic value of the dollar itself, not its value on the Dollar Index (DXY). The intrinsic value of the dollar can be determined by the level of real interest rates. Real interest rates are calculated by subtracting the rate of inflation from a country's "risk free" sovereign yield. Right now the level of real interest rates in the U.S. is a negative 1.55%.
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Monday, November 24, 2014
The 2014 Crude Oil Price Crash Explained / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
This is an article by our good friend Euan Mearns at the University of Aberdeen. It was originally published here .
- In February 2009 Phil Hart published on The Oil Drum a simple supply demand model that explained then the action in the oil price. In this post I update Phil’s model to July 2014 using monthly oil supply (crude+condensate) and price data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA).
- This model explains how a drop in demand for oil of only 1 million barrels per day can account for the fall in price from $110 to below $80 per barrel.
- The future price will be determined by demand, production capacity and OPEC production constraint. A further fall in demand of the order 1 Mbpd may see the price fall below $60. Conversely, at current demand, an OPEC production cut of the order 1 Mbpd may send the oil price back up towards $100. It seems that volatility has returned to the oil market.
Monday, November 24, 2014
122 Tonnes of Gold Secretly Repatriated to Netherlands / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
The Dutch central bank said Friday it is repatriating some of its gold reserves from the U.S., making it the latest central bank in Europe to address public concerns about the safety of its gold in the wake of the eurozone debt crisis.
As the debate regarding whether or not Switzerland should keep the bulk of its gold reserves at home on Swiss soil reaches it's climax - the referendum takes place on Sunday - it is telling that the Dutch announced on Friday that they have just secretly repatriated 122 tonnes of their sovereign gold reserves from New York back to Amsterdam.
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Monday, November 24, 2014
Gold, Silver, and Blue Dollars / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
“Whether the single medium is gold, silver, seashells, cattle, or tobacco is optional, depending on the context and development of a given economy. In fact, all have been employed, at various times, as media of exchange. Even in the present century, two major commodities, gold and silver, have been used as international media of exchange, with gold becoming the predominant one. Gold, having both artistic and functional uses and being relatively scarce, has significant advantages over all other media of exchange.