Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, July 12, 2012
EU in Recession, US Entering Recession and China is Lying About Its Growth / Economics / Recession 2012
By: Graham_Summers
The emerging markets, especially China, are showing signs of a major slowdown. Indeed, recent revelations have made it clear that China’s slowdown is in fact much worse than expected:
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
U.S. Labor Market and Sales News Remains Unsatisfactory / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
There were 3.642 million job openings in May according to the job openings and labor turnover report (JOLTS), which lags the employment report by one month. The job openings rate (number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings) moved up slightly to 2.7% in May from 2.5% in April, but matches the rate seen in March. The hiring rate (number of hires during the entire month as a percentage of total employment) at 3.3% in May has held at this level in three out of first five months of the year. Essentially, the report confirms the message from the employment report of sluggish labor market conditions.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
U.S. Already in Recession, Thinks ECRI's Achutan / Economics / Recession 2012
By: Bloomberg
Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, spoke with Bloomberg Television's Tom Keene today and said that, "What we said back in December was that the most likely start date for the recession would be in Q1 and if not then, by the middle of 2012. I'm here to reaffirm that. I think we're in a recession already."
Monday, July 09, 2012
Barack Obama's Presidency Economic Report Card – Fail / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
We are now three and one half years into Barack Obama's presidency. I thought a few pertinent charts would help us assess the success of his economic policies. Upon his election he demanded an $800 billion stimulus package in order to keep the unemployment rate from surpassing 8%. The $800 billion was to be spent over two years we were told and then government spending would be scaled back to pre-stimulus levels. There were 145 million Americans employed when Obama was elected. There are 9 million more working age Americans today than there were in 2008. There are now 142.4 million employed Americans. So, we've added 9 million potential workers and still have 2.6 less Americans employed. We have the same number of Americans employed as we did in early 2006, when there were 17 million less working age Americans.
Monday, July 09, 2012
The Unseen Hand in Economic Progress / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Alasdair_Macleod
The assessment of economic growth based on Gross Domestic Product is a fallacy, because GDP is merely a measure of the amount of money in an economy. The one thing it does not measure, which is central to economic progress (note progress, not growth), is the level of entrepreneurial activity. This has important implications for the efficacy of government interventions and solutions to the current economic crisis.
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Saturday, July 07, 2012
U.S. Labour Market Stood Sill in June, Strengthens the case of FOMC Doves / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 8.2% in June, unchanged from May. Cycle-high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.0%, registered in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +80,000 jobs in June vs. +77,000 in May. Private sector jobs increased 84,000 after a gain of 105,000 in May. A net loss of 1,000 jobs due to revisions of non-farm payroll estimates of April and May.
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Friday, July 06, 2012
U.S. Falling into a Liquidity Trap, Leading to a Japan Style Economic Depression / Economics / US Debt
By: Brady_Willett
Central bank printing and excessive government borrowing are two themes that need no introduction. The U.S. consumer could become a source of stability for the financial world again (well get to this). And oh how it hurts to wake up in the morning when you are old. What follows is the cornucopia of negativity that can be unfurled when looking at the financial world today a world that is only out-daunted by one thing: how the world will look tomorrow.
Friday, July 06, 2012
Latest from the US Labor Market / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
The customary initial jobless claims report shows a reduction in jobless claims by 14,000 to 374,000 during the week ended June 30, putting the four-week moving average at 385,750. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, rose 4,000 to 3.306 million. The year commenced with initial jobless claims at 390,000 in the first week of January, the year-to-date low has been 361,000 and the latest reading is 374,000, as noted earlier. These numbers imply that there has been only a small improvement in the initial jobless claims, nothing to write home about.
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Thursday, July 05, 2012
Sorry Folks, Spain Isn’t “Saved” And The Next Leg Down is Coming Soon / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Graham_Summers
Spain has supposedly been “saved” by a €100 billion bailout.
However, the details surrounding the source of the funding for this “bailout” still remain a mystery as there is no entity capable of providing the €100 billion in capital: neither the IMF, nor the Federal Reserve, nor the ECB have the political backing to launch a bailout of this size… and of the two EU mega-bailout funds, the EFSF and the ESM, the former can’t even raise €10 billion successfully while the latter doesn’t even exist yet.
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Wednesday, July 04, 2012
What Next For The Euro-Zone? / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Victoria_Marklew
The European Union has just completed its 20th "make or break" Summit in a little over two years, and actually managed to beat expectations. Two key agreements were reached on June 28-29: expanding the remit of the two bailout funds - the temporary European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM) - to include sovereign debt purchases and eventually direct banking sector support; and creating a unified banking regulator for the Euro-zone under the auspices of the European Central Bank (ECB). These apparently-small steps are actually quite far reaching. The Summit outcome also indicates that, faced with really significant risks - in this case, unsustainable funding pressures on the Spanish and Italian sovereigns - the politicians are still willing to make some of the compromises necessary to support the Euro-zone. In our opinion, this combination of muddle-through and compromise in the face of crisis will lead to a closer fiscal union over the coming years. However, we also think that the likelihood that Greece will not be a member of the Euro-zone by end-2013 has risen to over 60%.
Wednesday, July 04, 2012
Krugman's Icelandic Economic Miracle Debate, Round 2 / Economics / Economic Theory
By: EconMatters
Paul Krugman has long been an advocate of Keynesian economics, and a proponent of aggressive and expansionary fiscal policy drawing parallels between Japan's decade-long deflation and the current Great Recession. Krugman also has also been writing quite extensively using Iceland as the poster child on the benefits of currency devaluation. Krugman's latest endeavor on the so-called 'Icelandic Miracle' was when he posted on his NYT blog last month with the following chart showing the seemingly much better GDP growth from Iceland compared to Ireland, Estonia, Lativa, and Lithuania, the countries either in Euro or has a currency pegged to the Euro. He then rhetorically remarked:
Wednesday, July 04, 2012
Italy and Spain: Hard to Ignore Economic Facts / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Asha_Bangalore
The euphoria of the EU summit of June 28-29 is fading as markets comprehend that the eurozone has only bought time but not addressed the fundamental fact that economic growth is necessary to secure the future of the eurozone. In other words, economic facts are hard to ignore. First, outstanding Italian sovereign debt is in the neighborhood of €1.8 trillion and that of Spanish sovereign debt is approaching €600 billion. Therefore, the firepower of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) of €500 billion is inadequate, even if the differing maturities of these securities are taken into consideration, in the current economic environment.
Tuesday, July 03, 2012
Factories Across the World Shift Gears / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey results for June were disappointing; with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) at 49.7 in June, down from 53.5 in the prior month. This is the first monthly reading below 50.0 since July 2009 (see Chart 1). Index readings above 50 denote an expansion, while those below 50.0 point to a contraction in activity.
Tuesday, July 03, 2012
Unmasking China, the Asian Giant / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Chinese operas have been keeping audiences enthralled for hundreds of years with mythical characters, enchanting stories and elaborate masks that add drama and mystery. While this fantastical treatment is appreciated in the theatre, it isn't in global markets. Investors don't like mystery--think of how uncertainty has spooked markets in recent years.
Global investors are rarely privy to every detail about the economy; that's why it's necessary to rely on multiple data and research to make decisions and be cautious of extreme views that unnecessarily arouse suspicion, skepticism, and criticism. These opinions may grab headlines, but rarely do they help investors' portfolios.
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Monday, July 02, 2012
Hiding Inflation Results in Perma-Recession, The Next Great Keynesian Failure / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Andy_Sutton
As we enter Round 15, give or take a couple, of the heavyweight battle between economic laws and the (not so) Great Keynesian experiment at Normandy and elsewhere in Euroland, one must really begin to wonder what exactly the outcome will be in social terms. There is one point in the entire goings on that has been mentioned by several other analysts in covering the big picture of what ails the financial world that needs more attention and that is aggregate demand. We’re also going to take a look at some of the other tools that have been used in the past to ‘hide’ the effects of rampant monetary inflation, namely the deindustrialization of America and the rise of consumer credit.
Monday, July 02, 2012
Can the U.S Economy "de-couple" from the Eurozone Debt Crisis? / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
As the Eurozone teeters on the edge of a breakup, it begs the question: Can the U.S economy "de-couple" from the Eurozone debt crisis?
Ultimately, the answer comes down to fate of the euro. It's the linchpin to everything.
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Sunday, July 01, 2012
Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World, Learning From the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Jesse
Liaquat Ahamed, author of Lords of Finance, The Bankers Who Broke the World, discusses the parallels between the Great Depression and the Financial Crisis of today at The American Academy of Berlin.
I concur heartily with Mr. Ahamed on the primary causes of the bubble and collapse, especially with regard to the enormous policy errors of the Greenspan Fed.
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Friday, June 29, 2012
U.S. Economy Real GDP Composition Modified, Though Q1 Headline Remains Unchanged / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real GDP of the US economy grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in the first quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate. Although the headline was not changed, contributions of several components were modified. Consumer spending (+2.5% vs. +2.7% previous estimate), equipment and software (+3.5% vs. +3.9% previous estimate), exports (+4.2% vs. +7.2% prior estimate), inventories, and imports (+2.7% vs. +6.1% prior estimate) were revised down. Residential investment expenditures (+20% vs. +19.4% prior estimate) and structures (+1.9% vs. -3.3% prior estimate) were raised. In addition to the upward revisions, a smaller trade gap also helped to offset the downward revisions and leave the headline unchanged. There were upwards of each of the inflation measures.
Friday, June 29, 2012
Europe Seeking Exit from Economic Woes / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: William_R_Thomson
Investment Round Table of Singapore Business Times
PANELLISTS:
Charles Dallara: Managing director, Institute of International Finance
Richard Koo: Chief economist, Nomura Research Institute, Tokyo
Eisuke Sakakibara: Former vice-finance minister for international affairs of Japan
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Friday, June 29, 2012
U.S. Economy GDP, The Hood Looks OK But It's A Mess Underneath / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
This week the final revision to Q1 2012 GDP was released. The headline is simple, GDP remains unchanged at 1.9%. Not great but not horrible either, right? I mean 2% growth amid outright contraction in Europe is good. Perhaps the US has finally decoupled?
You don't need an economics degree (trust me on that one) to look underneath the hood and see that this "unchanged revision" was actually indicative of something more sinister. That the US economy is not only in trouble but is clearly "coupled."
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