Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, July 09, 2022
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England just like it's US counterpart recognises the significance of the yield curve inversions not because it has magical powers but that it tends to act as a self fulfilling prophecy, i.e. if enough people act on such as trigger as they tend to do then YES it will negatively impact on economic activity as market participants respond accordingly.
However in this respect the Bank of England has done a good smoke and mirrors job of masking the importance of yield curve inversions in the UK, which just don't carry as much weight as they do in the US. The UK yield curve has already temporarily inverted in December, but as has been the case for some time it tends to be of a con flip significance. At best UK yield curve inversions signal economic stress that we are already well aware of.
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Tuesday, July 05, 2022
The Inflation Mega-trend and UK House Prices - Housing Market Analysis Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 / Housing-Market / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Inflation has soared to a 30+ year high even on the highly manipulated CPLIE measure resulting in the biggest fall in living standards since records began for the UK and probably similar for US and most western households who are in for a deep real terms drop in disposable income during 2022, with the UK set for an eye watering record plunge of over £2200 per household. Which if you remained focused on the mainstream press then you would not have seen any of it coming having been hoodwinked for the whole of 2021 by the central bank mantra of 'transient inflation' which as I repeatedly warned would turn out to be PERMANENT. However the con merchants are now playing the blame everything on Russia game, as if inflation and all of the West woes were none existant until Putin delusionally marched his amateur army into Ukraine having believed his own lies echoed by his YES Men ensuring him that victory would come within days of invasion.
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Thursday, June 30, 2022
UK Housing Market Analysis, Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 - Part 2 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 2 of 3 of my extensive analysis of the UK housing market that concludes in a detailed 3 year trend forecast for UK house prices (Part 1).
UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024
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Tuesday, June 28, 2022
UK House Prices - Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK House Prices - Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
There have been so many interest rate hike false dawns over the past decade that one has become skeptical that this time could be different, and YES THIS TIME COULD REALLY BE DIFFERENT DUE TO OUT OF CONTORL INFLATION that worries the CENTRAL BANKS for they understand that it risks igniting the wage price spiral which once it takes hold is not easily brought back under control, hence there is a very high probability of high inflation for a decade because the central banks will not do what needs to be done! FORGET THE NOISE ABOUT Interest rates soaring to ridiculous levels for Central banks know their banking crime syndicate brethren would go BUST! Instead rates will rise but NOT to the level needed i.e. to ABOVE the rate of INFLATION. The UK base Interest rate to control inflation would need to be ABOVE the rate of Inflation i.e. at about 10%! which is clearly not going to happen! Not even to HALF that level, and probably not even to 1/4 of that level, 2% is what the Bank of England is targeting! Whilst INFLATION rages to 10%! That is not going to cool inflation OR the HOUSING MARKET!
The Bank of England is targeting a joke interest rate of just 2%. For UK Interest rates to have any significant impact on the UK housing market the base rate would need to be above 5%, and even then the impact would be relatively mind. People are NOT STUPID! They understand Inflation of 10% vs a Mortgage rate of say 4% is a NO BRAINER i.e. BORROW to the HILT and let inflation do it's MAGIC!
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Wednesday, June 22, 2022
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK house prices have soared into the stratosphere! Or have they? Not really, not in real terms anyway (RPI). However they are approaching the resistance of 2000's bull market high which could result in a consolidation of sorts. After all if I can see house prices in real terms hitting the buffers then so will be the expedience of most market participants where they are unable to finance property purchases at such extremes.
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Tuesday, June 21, 2022
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK house prices momentum soared to over 10% per annum after the bull market broke out of it's 0% to 5% momentum range that it had been in for most of the 2010's. Instead it looks likely the UK is entering into a 10% to 7% momentum range which suggest to continue to expect year on year gains for several more YEARs in the range of 10% to 6%! Yes we will get corrections i.e. 2 or 3 months of mildly falling prices that I am sure will have the perma bears crowing of top being in and a crash just around the corner, but this bull market is far from done and momentum suggests to expect strong house price inflation for at least the next 3 years.
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Sunday, June 19, 2022
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This graph shows that following Brexit UK house prices consolidated in GDP terms for a number of years towards trend before the current blast higher driven by the governments maniac pandemic spending binge .However, house prices are NOT that distant from trend so unless there IS a significant recession around the corner, this graph suggests the bull market has plenty of scope to continue trending higher for many years.
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Friday, June 17, 2022
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Continuing with the affordability theme the real terms sustainable house prices trend metric uses a souped up version of the oft mentioned average earnings X 3.5 ratio, where the X3.5 ratio has been defective since the 1980's instead the relentless trend puts the ratio currently at about 4.5X average earnings which resolves in the following trend graph.
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Thursday, June 09, 2022
UK Housing Market Affordability Crisis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Most academic housing market commentators focus on the various measures of housing market affordability or rather unaffordability as house prices despite the price crash of 2008-2009 never fell to anywhere near the affordability levels of the early 1990's housing bear market lows and therefore ivory tower academics have continued to cling onto expectations that a further house prices crash is inevitable so as to fit in with their theoretical models of where house prices should fall to in terms of affordability that gets liberally regurgitated in the mainstream press, and looking at the graph below it is very easy to be seduced by something that on first glance appears obvious that house prices really did have a long way to fall to reach the affordability levels of the past.
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Monday, June 06, 2022
UK Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The following is one of my custom UK housing market indicators that more clearly illustrates the degree of housing market crisis that Britain finds itself in as a ratio between the accumulative change in population since 1970 against the accumulative number of new completed house builds also since 1970 which shows the magnitude of the trend in over crowding of Britain's housing market that given recent mainstream press headlines based on academic studies clearly remain largely blind to the consequences of, because they still are unable to visualise the magnitude of Britain's housing crisis that has WORSENED since Britain voted to LEAVE the EU which should act as a warning to those who contemplate ever holding a second EU referendum, as it implies LEAVE would win by an even bigger margin next time!
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Saturday, June 04, 2022
UK Housing Market Over Crowding Ratio / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The following is one of my custom UK housing market indicators that more clearly illustrates the degree of housing market crisis that Britain finds itself in as a ratio between the accumulative change in population since 1970 against the accumulative number of new completed house builds also since 1970 which shows the magnitude of the trend in over crowding of Britain's housing market that given recent mainstream press headlines based on academic studies clearly remain largely blind to the consequences of, because they still are unable to visualise the magnitude of Britain's housing crisis that has WORSENED since Britain voted to LEAVE the EU which should act as a warning to those who contemplate ever holding a second EU referendum, as it implies LEAVE would win by an even bigger margin next time!
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The below graph shows the UK annual population change against annual net additional dwellings which includes completed new builds.
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Tuesday, May 31, 2022
UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 - Part 1 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 1 of my extensive analysis of the UK housing market that concludes in a detailed 3 year trend forecast.
UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024
Tuesday, May 31, 2022
UK Population Growth Trend Forecast to 2030 Current State / Housing-Market / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My long standing forecast is for the UK population to grow from 62.2 million as of Mid 2010 to at least 70.5 million by 2030 as excerpted below:
2nd August 2010 - UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030
The assumptions being factored into the UK population growth forecast are for a natural UK population growth rate of births exceeding deaths of 0.33% per year (current 200k), coupled with net average current immigration trend of 240k per year, supplemented with climate change refugees averaging 50k per year from 2015 onwards extrapolates into the following trend forecast over the next 10 years that targets a rise from 62.2 million as of mid 2010 to 67 million by mid 2020, and should the same trend be maintained beyond 2020 then the UK population could rise to above 72 million by mid 2030. However in all probability the country will not experience the post 2020 trend due to several converging factors including political pressures, capacity constraints and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues. Which implies a tapering off of net immigration in favour of natural growth which implies a lower total of nearer 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated by the below graph.
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Friday, May 27, 2022
Britain's Hyper Housing Market / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In Britain we have long since known and factored into the equation the China effect on London's property market that has long since sent it soaring into the stratosphere following the stagnation of the Mid 1990's which was probably one of the best times in decades to buy a property in terms of bang for ones buck i.e. it was before immigration soared into the stratosphere courtesy of the open door policy of Tony Blair's Labour government as the socialists enticed millions of eastern european's to come to the UK and become new Labour voters that sent house prices soaring across Britain and eventually putting housing out of the reach of many millions of prospective home buyers who enjoyed a brief respite in the aftermath of the great financial crisis when demand slumped along with the economy.
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Tuesday, May 17, 2022
This is Anything but Positive for US Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Has the rise in mortgage rates only begun?
A tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces appears to be playing out in the U.S. housing market.
On the one hand, some areas of the country are still experiencing record-high home prices as buyers outnumber sellers.
On the other, the number of home sellers who dropped their asking price spiked to a six-month high of 15% during a four-week period ending on May 1, according to a Redfin report released on May 6.
Another development that falls in the bearish category for residential real estate is rising mortgage rates.
Here's what the April Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides analysis of major U.S. financial markets, noted as it showed this chart:
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Tuesday, April 05, 2022
How To Make Money As A Landlord: A Simple Guide / Housing-Market / Buy to Let
By: Steve_Barker
If it's done right, being a landlord can be a very profitable endeavor. However, it's not as simple as just buying a property and sitting back, collecting rent checks. There are lots of things to consider beforehand, and you need to know what you're doing. In this article, we'll discuss the basics of how to make money as a landlord and give you some tips on how to get started.
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Friday, February 18, 2022
Useful Budgeting Tips for a Home Renovation / Housing-Market / Home Improvements
By: Steve_Barker
Are you in the process of planning a home renovation? If so, you're probably trying to figure out how to fit the project into your budget. It can be tricky to stay on track when working with a limited amount of money. But don't worry, you’re in the right place! This article will guide you through some tips to consider while budgeting for your home renovation.
Look at Cost vs. Value
When planning your budget, consider both the cost and the value of each renovation project. Some projects, like a new roof or windows, offer good value for the money. Other projects, like a kitchen remodel or home addition, may be more expensive, but can also increase the value of your home. It’s crucial to weigh up the cost and benefits of each project before deciding which ones to include in your budget. Knowing the average kitchen renovation cost worldwide will help you plan your kitchen renovation project budget.
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Thursday, February 10, 2022
Important Things You Need To Consider Before Selling A Property / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Steve_Barker
House-selling is one of the most complex things that you'll ever do in your life. It's not just about choosing the right realtor or finding an ideal property, but there are some other factors that are just as important, so keep reading to find out what they are.
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Saturday, January 22, 2022
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Umer_Mahmood
San Diego is known for immaculate weather and pristine beaches alongside a bustling downtown scene focused around PetCo Park and the Gaslamp district. While San Diego is not known for its affordable real estate, the area is still rapidly growing, and those who have the funds to spend can find some great neighborhoods that are rapidly growing.Read full article... Read full article...