Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, May 22, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Bear Market Picking Up Steam? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pollaro
At the risk of repeating myself, this author is bearish on long dated US Treasuries. Yes, despite the best efforts of the Fed to monetize the federal government’s ballooning borrowing needs and hold long rates at bay, this author is bearish on long dated US Treasuries.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Government Debt Downgrades vs. Gold / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: Mike_Shedlock
The word for today is "downgrade". Inquiring minds may wish to count the instances of downgrade in the following paragraphs.
UK and US Debt Face Downgrades
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Delusions of Endless Credit Something Very Bad is Going to Happen / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: LewRockwell
Richard Daughty writes: James Howard Kunstler, famous author and speaker, opines, “For now, the ‘bottom’ is in” which took me completely by surprise! I mean, how could anybody in their Right Freaking Mind (RFM) think that “the bottom is in” as far as the economy is concerned?
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Are We ‘Back from the Fiscal Abyss’ as Dallas Fed Claims? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Lorimer_Wilson
Richard W. Fisher, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, was once one of the most expressive economist imaginable often using graphic and sensationalist words and expressions to get our attention when describing the ‘nightmarish predicament’ and ‘monstrous challenge’ that has finally engulfed us. It was only a year ago that he warned that a ‘frightful storm is brewing’ – ‘the mother of all financial storms’ – that could well plunge the U.S. government deeper into a ‘fiscal abyss’ causing the country to become submerged in a ‘vast fiscal chasm’. Fisher has not always been so dramatic in spite of saying recently ‘I am a Texan and Texans speak plainly and directly’ and he is not being very direct these days either.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Barrons on U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Bursting / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
This is the second cover story in 5 months for Barron's on the bursting of the bubble in Treasury yields. I have been closely following the yield on the 10 year Treasury since December, 2008, and I would agree that Treasury yields are ripe for a secular trend change. However, this won't be confirmed until there is a monthly close over 3.43% in yield.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Credit Crisis Freeze Thawing Following Massive Reflation Efforts / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Are the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections having the desired effect of unclogging credit markets and restoring confidence in the world’s financial system? This is precisely what the “Credit Crisis Watch” is all about - a review of a number of measures in order to ascertain to what extent the thawing of credit markets is taking place.
First up is the LIBOR rate. This is the interest rate banks charge each other for one-month, three-month, six-month and one-year loans. LIBOR is an acronym for “London InterBank Offered Rate” and is the rate charged by London banks. This rate is then published and used as the benchmark for bank rates around the world.
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Tuesday, May 19, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Recovery from Deeply Oversold Levels / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market recovered from deeply oversold levels last week. Former support at 3% on the 10 Year Treasury Note will be the first major resistance level to watch. The yield curve on the other hand maintained its steepness as yields declined across the maturity spectrum. The economic data might look good from far but it is far from good so the main concern for the bond market is not an imminent recovery but a continued deterioration of the credit quality of government bonds as more and more of the excesses of this enormous credit bubble continue to migrate from the private to the public sector. Look for real yields to expand.
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Friday, May 15, 2009
Non-Existant U.S. Economic Recovery Bullish for Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Given that Bernanke's green shoots are withering on the vine it was a sure bet that someone else would find another feel good term to describe what is essentially not happening. That term is "pre-recovery".
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Russia Cuts Interest Rates to 12%, 2nd Cut for May / Interest-Rates / Russia
By: Pravda
Russia's Central Bank cut key interest rates by half a percentage point to 12 percent to help the ailing economy and borrowers amid signs that inflation is slowing.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Credit Card Crisis as Huge Losses Cause Lending to Stop / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Mike_Shedlock
The credit card industry is in huge stress and things are about to get worse. Please consider Advanta Halts Credit-Card Lending Amid Surging Losses.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Here's How to Make Far More Money in Bonds than Stocks in 2009 / Interest-Rates / Investing 2009
By: DailyWealth
Porter Stansberry writes: In the past two weeks, I've spent a considerable amount of time researching the corporate bond market.I think it's one of the greatest opportunities to make a substantial amount of capital gains – and earn high income – you'll ever see.
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Monday, May 11, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Break Below Short-term Support / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market gave up a major support level 2 weeks ago as the 10 Year Treasury Note moved decisively through 3%. Last week the bond market followed through with yields rising and prices falling further. The stocks for bonds switch also continued unabated. The yield curve also broke out of its trading range around 200 basis points to steepen toward the 230 level. Long term rates rose from 2.5% just before year end to 4.27% as of last weekend. That is a 71% rise in a little over 4 months. That is about double the measly 35% rise in the stock market. The record debt to GDP level maybe changing in its composition but it is not going away. Any “green-shoot” that might be fixing to sprout will be nipped in the bud by rising yields.
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Monday, May 11, 2009
Quantitative Easing Aka Counterfeiting Money / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: LewRockwell
Michael S. Rozeff writes: I begin by describing quantitative easing in technical terms. I go on to describe what it means when a central bank and its government engage in quantitative easing. What is quantitative easing? It is a central bank’s "purchase" of government securities (bills, notes, bonds) directly from the government.
Friday, May 08, 2009
The Clock is Ticking on the U.S. Dollar and Bond Markets! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ty_Andros
This is the beginning of the third edition of the “Fingers of Instability” series. The first edition was in the winter/spring of 2007, the second in the winter/spring of 2008, and now the third in the spring of 2009. The Fingers of Instability are ANALOGOUS to nature as seen in a sand pile. In August 2006, John Mauldin (John@frontlinethoughts.com) commented on a study of sand piles by three physicists who created a sand pile with a computer program that dropped one grain of sand on top of another to study critical states: NON-EQUILIBRIUM systems and uncertainty. When I read this, I immediately realized the debt bubbles throughout the world were an analogy to these studies and explained a great deal about the last three decades of debt creation. It reinforced my observations about Ponzi finance and asset-backed economies. It explained quite nicely what was transpiring and what to expect at some point in relation to PILES of DEBT and the FAKE prosperity and growth caused by EASY MONEY and runaway credit expansion.
Friday, May 08, 2009
Bursting Of The U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble: Not So Fast! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond has spiked 10% in the past two weeks, and many are now jumping on the "bonds are the next bubble to burst" bandwagon. I was one of the first to be bearish on Treasury bonds calling for the likelihood of a secular trend change back in December, 2008 and a top in back in February, 2009. Higher Treasury yields are in our future, and it isn't a matter of if but when.
Thursday, May 07, 2009
Will Interest Rates Sky Rocket as Inflationary Pressures Build? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: U.S. Treasury bond yields are going higher - much higher. And that’s even before we factor in the likely effects of rising inflation, which we haven’t seen yet, but can certainly anticipate.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Inflation or Deflation: Who is the Winner? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Q1_Publishing
In this environment, we anticipate that inflation will remain low. Indeed, given the sizable margin of slack in resource utilization and diminished cost pressures from oil and other commodities, inflation is likely to move down some...
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Bernanke Warns of Danger of Credit Crisis Relapse / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Mike_Shedlock
While Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Warns of a Credit Market 'Relapse', Congress is increasingly willing to stand up to the Fed Chairman.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Break Below Support / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market gave up a major support level last week as the 10 Year Treasury Note moved decisively through 3%. The stocks for bonds switch continued unabated, where it stops, nobody knows. As the short end remains anchored, any back-up in long term rates causes the yield curve to steepen. This is a good news – bad news story in the present environment. It is excellent news for financials that can still afford to borrow short and lend long as they can earn a significant carry on that trade.
Tuesday, May 05, 2009
Some Corporate Bonds Looking Better than U.S. Treasuries / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Nilus Mattive writes: I think Mike Larson did a great job outlining the dangers of longer-term U.S. Treasury bonds in his past two Money & Markets columns. And like Mike, I continue to believe there is more pain ahead for that category of bonds.