Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, June 15, 2007
Long-term Bond Yield Mega Trend - A Unique Era / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Aden_Forecast
The gold market has been under pressure lately and some investors are feeling a little nervous. But the major trend is clearly up. That being the case, let's stand back and look at the facts...
Gold has been rising for over six years and it's gained 158% since then. That works out to 26% per annum, which has consistently been better than most other markets. The recent weakness is a bump in the road and it's not unusual. We continue to believe that gold will likely rise for years to come, eventually reaching at least $2000 and it'll probably go even higher.
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Friday, June 15, 2007
WIll China Keep Throwing Good Money After Bad? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
At a commercial real estate conference earlier this week, Alan Greenspan downplayed concerns that the Chinese might sell their significant holdings of U.S. Treasuries. The former Fed chairman based his opinion not on the inherent investment merits of Treasuries, but rather on their lack of them. His confidence stems simply from his belief that the Chinese have no one to whom they can sell. Furthermore, Greenspan sees this as a problem for the Chinese and not the U.S.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 15, 2007
When will this Bond Market Rout End? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes : If bond traders thought the worst was over last week, they had another thing coming to 'em. Long Bond futures prices fell Monday … dropped sharply Tuesday … bounced Wednesday … then slumped again yesterday. All told, Treasuries lost value in seven out of the past eight days.
Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury Note yields have soared! They're up more than three-quarters of a percentage point from their December low. In fact, 10-year yields briefly touched 5.30% this week, the highest level in five years.
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Thursday, June 14, 2007
US Bond Market Upheaval and Confusion / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
In late March, an article pointed out the massive powerful cross currents in the USTreasury bond world. We are seeing the forces described finally at work. The aftermath has generated more questions than answers. In “Cross Currents for USTBonds” (click here ), several bullish factors were cited for bonds, but also several bearish factors were cited also. This will be a short review of relevant points, since the Vancouver Gold Show is this weekend.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Higher Interest Rates Reflect Default Risk as Credit Boom comes to an End / Interest-Rates / Liquidity Bubble
By: Paul_Lamont
From our last report on the Panic of 1837, titled ‘ May 10th Credit Collapse ':
“In late 1836, the Bank of England concerned with inflation raised interest rates. As rates rose in England, credit tightened, and U.S. asset prices began to fall. On May 10 th , investors panicked and scrambled for cash.”
The markets are now tightening credit with higher interest rates. The 10 year Treasury Bond has recently confirmed its break out of the 1982-2006 trend channel.
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Thursday, June 14, 2007
The Global Bond Bear Market on the Back of the Inflationary Boom Ahead / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: Ty_Andros
- First Stage in motion, with small signs of wake up!
- Ethanol Blow Back
CRACK-UP BOOM, part II
In this edition of the “Crack-up Boom” series, we will begin to discuss more in depth how the CRACK-UP BOOM is principally dollar-based now and we will show its fingerprints in US-based money flows, both into and out of the United States, as investors begin to take the actions necessary to protect themselves from the ensuing tsunami of inflation which can be expected.
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Debt Bubble - Feeling Normal Yet? / Interest-Rates / Liquidity Bubble
By: Adrian_Ash
"Might this bubble in debt really have grown so enormous that somehow it can end – as no bubble before it – without bursting...?"
"TOO MANY PEOPLE think risk is dead, that they can't lose money anymore," said Tom Metzold, manager of the Eaton Vance Municipals Fund, at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York earlier this week.
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Thursday, June 14, 2007
US Interest Rates and Inflation - Until is Now: How Fear becomes Risk / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Paul_Petillo
How high can the markets go I asked last week, running the risk that as soon as a signed that article, it was almost guaranteeing that the markets would fall. How precipitously was unknown. The risk that everyone knew was built into the markets months ago became fear seemingly overnight.
The bond markets, acting as the canary in the coal mine have begun to choke on its own ambivalence. Regarded as the barometer of economic strength and weakness, fixed income has remained somewhat benign as the Dow set records almost daily.
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Wednesday, June 13, 2007
A Pyrrhic Victory for the Fed as Long Interest Rates Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
The recent sell-off in equity prices illustrates how vulnerable markets are to higher interest rates. It is my contention that the catalyst for the correction had more to do with Syria and Kuwait dropping their peg to the dollar than some epiphany from investors that the U.S. has entered into a secular trend of robust G.D.P. growth; regardless, the questions of particular saliency now are: how high will rates go? Why must they go higher at all? And does the Fed really target economic growth when it raises the Fed Funds rate?Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 11, 2007
Bank of England Governor Warns of another Interest Rate Rise / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England governor Mervyn King again warned of higher UK interest rates due to strong economic activity and continuing inflationary pressures at a CBI Event.
In his reasoning for raising UK interest rates to 5.5% in May , he stated : "The Monetary Policy Committee will be watching closely indicators of capacity pressures, pricing intentions, and inflation expectations. If these indicators remain elevated, the MPC may need to take further action. There is no simple or self-evident answer to the question of what path of interest rates will be necessary to bring inflation back to the 2% target and keep it there."
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Sunday, June 10, 2007
Goodbye to the Good Old Days as US Bond Yields Surge / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_J_Panzner
Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note recorded its biggest one-day jump in years and breached the five percent level for the first time since July. Other fixed-income markets quickly followed suit, hurt not only by a nominal rise in rates but by a jump in risk spreads. One trader described the sell-off in the mortgage-backed securities market as "a good old-fashioned mortgage puke."Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 09, 2007
What’s the Deal with US Bond Yields? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Why have bond yields moved so violently upward this past week? Well, yes, some of the data last week were stronger than expected. But come on, May nonfarm payrolls increasing 157,000, getting a boost from 203,000 assumed (birth/death adjustment) workers being added to unadjusted payrolls, and coming on the heels of an 80,000 increase in April is hardly the stuff of the bond market massacre we have witnessed this week.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 09, 2007
US Interest Rate Spike and What to Do About It / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Roger_Conrad
The 10-year Treasury note yield is again more than 5 percent. And while the benchmark is off its high for the day—it reached 5.24 percent at one point—the fallout has at last reached the rest of the income investment universe.
The Dow Jones Utility Average is now down about 9.1 percent from the all-time high of about 537 that it set in late May. The typical US real estate investment trust (REIT) is down 13.5 percent, and many bond funds are showing similar carnage, particularly those with the highest duration—i.e., leverage to interest rates.
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Friday, June 08, 2007
Bonds In The Tank? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andy_Sutton
On first glance, it might appear that this is a baseball column. Certainly, Barry Bonds has had a tough time getting decent pitches to hit out the park recently. Such has also been the case with the bond market. As of the time of this writing, the yield on the 10-year has touched 5.25% indicating a shift shift in thought. There are two sides to every story, and like most other situations the ramifications are far-reaching.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 08, 2007
What Will the Fed Make of the US Bond Market Panic? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Adrian_Ash
"...If US consumers and Washington can't borrow cheap at the long end this summer, then they'll just have to get cheap money at the short end instead..."
"POSSIBLY THE EASIEST act for any human being is to spend money which does not belong to him," wrote Robert L. Smitley in his 1933 classic, Popular Financial Delusions .
The only thing easier, in fact, is lending money that's not yours and earning a yield on the profit or loss either way. "Almost anyone will risk funds in an enterprise when the funds are not his own," Smitley went on during the Western world's last Great Depression. Hence today's bubble in all assets.
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Friday, June 08, 2007
US Interest Rates Conundrum Unwind or Glut Rewind? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Brady_Willett
The U.S. economy slowed to a crawl in 1Q07 and the U.S. housing market is, by many accounts, years away from a meaningful rebound. With this in mind, why are long-term U.S. interest rates spiking higher and why have mortgage rates risen in each of the last four weeks to rest at 10-month highs?Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 08, 2007
Bond Market Massacre! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson, here. Two weeks ago, I issued an urgent bond market warning. I said that Treasury bond prices were falling and threatening a critical level of support. If we broke through it, I said, prices could really plunge and rates could take off like a rocket.
Well, guess what? We just sliced through that support like a hot knife through butter. Long bonds plunged by more than a point yesterday. While that may not sound like much, it was the biggest one-day percentage drop in more than 26 months!
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Thursday, June 07, 2007
Bank of England Leaves Interest Rates on Hold at 5.50pcent / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As widely expected the Bank of England left UK interest rates on hold at 5.50%. The previous change in Bank Rate was an increase of 0.25 percentage points to 5.5% on 10 May 2007. The Market Oracle is forecasting the next rate rise to occur in August 2007 UK Interest Rates - The next rise to 5.75% to occur in...
The decision to keep rates on hold gives the bank time to evaluate new inflation data for May and June, before taking the next anticipated decision to raise rates in August or earlier if the CPI again jumps above 3%
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Wednesday, June 06, 2007
The ECB Takes Another Step Toward Reining In Global Liquidity / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Today the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its policy interest rate 25 basis points to a level of 4.0%. Today's rate hike brings the cumulative increase to an even 200 basis points since the ECB started hiking its policy rate in December 2005. Comments by ECB President Trichet suggest that the ECB is not yet finished raising its policy interest rate.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
ECB Raises European Interest Rates to 4% / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As widely expected the European Central Bank today raised its key benchmark rate by 0.25% to 4% on the back of a strengthening Euro zone economy. This marks the eighth rise since December 2005.Read full article... Read full article...