Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, November 11, 2008
President Barack Obama Brings Hope for the Future / Politics / US Politics
With the election behind us, our country turns hopeful eyes to the future. I have a few hopes of my own.I congratulate our first African-American president-elect. Martin Luther King, Jr. certainly would be proud to see this day. We are stronger for embracing diversity, and I am hopeful that we can continue working through the tensions and wrongs of the past and become a more just and colorblind society. I hope this new administration will help bring us together, and not further divide us.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Iran Returns to the Global Stage / Politics / GeoPolitics
After a three-month hiatus, Iran seems set to re-emerge near the top of the U.S. agenda. Last week, the Iranian government congratulated U.S. President-elect Barack Obama on his Nov. 4 electoral victory. This marks the first time since the Iranian Revolution that such greetings have been sent.
While it seems trivial, the gesture is quite significant. It represents a diplomatic way for the Iranians to announce that they regard Obama's election as offering a potential breakthrough in 30 years of U.S. relations with Iran. At his press conference, Obama said he does not yet have a response to the congratulatory message, and reiterated that he opposes Iran's nuclear program and its support for terrorism. The Iranians returned to criticizing Obama after this, but without their usual passion.
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Monday, November 10, 2008
President-elect Obama Faces Extreme Volatility of Deflation and Inflation / Politics / Recession 2008 - 2010
A historic week on a few levels – the largest two day drop in the markets since the crash of '87, putting the markets on pace for their worst year since 1931 and 1937 (which represent the two worst years in the 183 year history of the market). Oh, and the election worked out well for the Democrats, putting the now President-elect Obama in the Whitehouse.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 10, 2008
Let the Bankrupt Banks Fail / Politics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
Everywhere today politicians are blaring that they must save America's financial institutions, alleging catastrophic risk to the economy were any to fail. Paulson and the entire Bush administration, in a discernible panic, are now pouring $700 billion into the big banks, having already bailed out AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Bear Stearns to the tune of $300 billion.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 10, 2008
Obama Faces Hard Political Decisions on Oil Depletion / Politics / Crude Oil
Washington insiders are well aware of oil depletion. It has been the subject of at least four reports funded by the United States Government, more than a dozen books, and multiple independent reports. Congress has taken testimony. Key figures in Washington have made speeches. Although there are some differences in the details, they are trivial in comparison with the broader perspective.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Obama vs. Medvedev Nuclear Showdown in New Europe / Politics / New Cold War
"US president-elect Barack Obama has told Polish President Lech Kaczynski he will go ahead with plans to build a missile defense shield in eastern Europe despite threats from Russia, Warsaw said on Saturday" AFP WarsawDmitry Medvedev is a quiet and reflective man who enjoys reading novels, lifting weights and listening to rock and roll music. He has a large collection of vintage vinyl records. His favorite rock bands are Deep Purple, Pink Floyd and Led Zeppelin. His parents were university professors who raised him in a crowded 500 sq ft apartment in Leningrad. He excelled at school and went on to become a lawyer before entering politics. He married his high school sweetheart, Svetlana Linnik, and is a close friend of former president Vladimir Putin.
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Sunday, November 09, 2008
Obamanomics Offers Investors Plenty of Profit Plays in 2009 / Politics / UK Stock Market
Martin Hutchinson writes: With his landslide election victory Tuesday – coupled with Democratic gains in the House of Representatives and in the Senate – U.S. President-elect Barack H. Obama II will have the ability to pursue more or less any policy he wants.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Obama's Counter Revolution to Reaganomics / Politics / Government Intervention
In 1980, when the U.S. economy was last in serious trouble, Ronald Reagan offered the correct diagnoses that government was the problem and not the solution. His message resonated with voters, propelling him into the White House to implement an agenda of lowering marginal tax rates, reducing government spending and business regulations, restoring sound money, abolishing entire government departments, and basically allowing free market vibrancy to unshackle an economy burdened by big government. Though in practice much of the Reagan revolution never materialized, at least in theory his basic premise was sound.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 07, 2008
President Obama Security Threats / Politics / US Politics
The U.S. presidential campaign trail presents a host of challenges for the U.S. Secret Service (USSS) protective detail assigned to cover the presidential candidates, something we've discussed previously. Major presidential candidates have been afforded USSS protection since the 1968 assassination of Robert Kennedy at a campaign event. Due to the nature of modern presidential campaigns, the candidates' schedules are packed with events that often start at breakfast and continue long after dinner. Candidates also hopscotch across the country, often visiting several cities in a day and sometimes visiting multiple venues in the same city.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 06, 2008
President Obama to America's Rescue? / Politics / Economic Depression
Having received 62.5 million votes, Barack Obama has earned a spectacular personal victory and a clear mandate to bring some form of change to the United States. Obama's decisive and masterly election campaign, where he first had to outmaneuver the formidable Clinton machine, may bode well for his ability to implement a government response of unprecedented magnitude. Time will tell if this is a blessing or a curse.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 06, 2008
President Obama Brings Change to America, What to Expect? / Politics / US Politics
Barack Obama has been elected president of the United States by a large majority in the Electoral College. The Democrats have dramatically increased their control of Congress, increasing the number of seats they hold in the House of Representatives and moving close to the point where — with a few Republican defections — they can have filibuster-proof control of the Senate. Given the age of some Supreme Court justices, Obama might well have the opportunity to appoint at least one and possibly two new justices. He will begin as one of the most powerful presidents in a long while.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
The American Dream Reborn with President Obama's Landslide Victory / Politics / US Politics
At 4am GMT on the 5th of November, the American networks declared victory to Senator Obama, shortly followed by the concession speech by John McCain during which time the number of electoral votes passed 333, against the 270 necessary to win, against John Mccain's tally of 155.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Obama Presidency, Is Redistribution of Wealth Really All That Bad? / Politics / US Politics
Redistribution is never an issue when the money is flowing upwards. It's only when working people are poised to get a few scraps that all hell breaks loose. That's when self-styled "mavericks" and their political cadres spring into action and unleash their vitriol at anyone who challenges the failed "trickle-down" dogma of the investor class. When Barak Obama naively pointed out the need to "spread the wealth" the media descended on him like a pack of feral hounds. The gaffe was followed by weeks of derision and vicious attacks. McCain branded him a the "Redistributionist-in-Chief" while his rabid friends on wingnut radio invoked the musty specter of Karl Marx.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
United States Entering its Darkest Period In History / Politics / US Economy
As predicted in The Big Rollover Thesis that we first presented in 2005, we are on the cusp of entering the darkest period in history that most of us have ever experienced. The people that really know about this are the Silent Generation. They feel it intensely because they were either born into it or grew up in it. They want to speak about it, but are either silenced or in fear. At a time when we need their guidance, ageism is upon us, and no one wants to listen to them.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
U.S. Elections and Performance of Stocks, Dollar and Economy / Politics / Financial Markets
Much has been written about the relationship between the partisan power in the White House and the performance of the stock market. Considerable amount of statistical exercise was undertaken in dissecting any the correlations and causalities involving partisan control of Congress, mid-term elections, balance of power between White House and Congress, and the impact of double term presidencies. The table below shows the performance of the dollar index, S&P500 and the general state of the US economy since the dollar became freely floated in 1971.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
United States Was Founded as a Constitutional Republic and Not a Democracy / Politics / US Politics
Alex Epstein writes: Every Election Day, politicians, intellectuals, and activists propagate a seemingly patriotic but utterly un-American idea: the notion that our most important right--and the source of America's greatness--is the right to vote. According to former President Bill Clinton, the right to vote is “the most fundamental right of citizenship”; it is “the heart and soul of our democracy,” says Senator John McCain.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
New President Will Disappoint on Supreme Court Judge Appointments / Politics / US Politics
Thomas A. Bowden writes: No matter who wins the presidency--and with it, the power to appoint Supreme Court justices--America's judiciary will remain locked into a crucial error that corrupts their interpretation of America's bedrock constitutional principle: individual rights. That error consists in regarding rights as gifts from society, with judges as diviners of the so-called social will.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Epochal Transformation Accelerates as Global Financial Matrix Disintegrates / Politics / US Politics
Now that the genie is out of the bottle, economic, political and social events will proceed with the inexorable force of destiny. The forthcoming changes, shifts and breaks with the past that are delineated below do concern the unsavory business of WHAT, positively, will not be brought into the future. This is of critical importance. Why? Because those who do not know, and understand, and heed history, are always, always forced to repeat it.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 31, 2008
Russia, Venezuela and Argentina Hit Hardest by Financial Crash / Politics / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: Four months ago, it appeared that three economic “bad actors” were triumphant in their disregard of economic laws and contempt for the United States: Russia, Venezuela and Argentina. Today, while the iron laws of economics have taken a bite out of all of us, they have taken an especially big chunk out of the economies of these bad actors. Unless most of us, the bad actors will not be quick to recover.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Financial and Geopolitical Forecasts for Fourth Quarter 2008 / Politics / Credit Crisis 2008
Dear Friends: Really hear what I'm about to tell you. The center of gravity of the world economic system has moved from New York to Washington. Let me illustrate what I mean so you understand just how profound this is. Banks used to compete against banks. US carmakers competed against each other and the Japanese. And the New York financial markets told you how they're doing against each other.Read full article... Read full article...