Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough? - 6th Dec 21
Global Stock Markets It’s Do-Or-Die Time - 6th Dec 21
Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry! - 6th Dec 21
How Stock Investors Can Cash in on President Biden’s new Climate Plan - 6th Dec 21
The Lithium Tech That Could Send The EV Boom Into Overdrive - 6th Dec 21
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Euro USD Currency Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

Currencies / US Dollar Apr 25, 2011 - 02:49 AM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe have written about the Euro in sections of various reports before, but this is the first report dedicated just to the EURUSD. The Euro, the currency of the European Union, replaced the ECU, a basket of european currencies, in 1999 on a 1:1 basis. For the record the Euro officially started trading in 1999. However, we do have charts for the ECU going back to 1991. In the 1990′s the basket of ECU currencies contained twelve different currencies.


The largest components were the DEM 32%, FRF 20% and the GBP 12%. Oddly enough, as you will observe from the following charts, the ECUUSD had only twice the value of the DEMUSD. Even though the German DEM made up only one third the value of the ECU basket. The following charts clearly display this 2:1 relationship.

This first chart displays the DEM from 1960 to 2005.

The second chart displays the ECU/EUR from 1991 to 2011. Notice the 2:1 EUR to DEM relationship during most of the 1990′s into the 2000 low. The whole point of comparing the DEM to the ECU/EUR is to aid in our historical analysis of the Euro.

When we review the DEM chart we observe the typical cyclical price movement of the established western currencies. Cycle peaks every 17 years and cycle lows about every 17 years as well, but only offset by 7 years. Counting from the Supercycle low in 1985 we have a double zigzag Cycle wave [A] advance into 1995. This aligns with the Cycle wave [A] wave peak in 1995 for the ECU/EUR.

Then between 1995 and 2000/02 both the DEM and ECU/EUR declined in three Primary waves into a Cycle wave [B] low. Nearing that low we need to default to the EURUSD charts since the Euro started trading in 1999. After the 2000/02 Cycle wave [B] low the EUR embarks on a multi-year, double zigzag, Cycle wave [C] to complete the Supercycle bull market. We see the first completed zigzag between 2000 to 2008, (EUR 82.00 and 160.20). Then the Primary X wave into the 2008 low at EUR 123.94. What follows is the second ABC Primary wave zigzag into an anticipated 2012 top. Primary waves A (EUR 151.44) and B (EUR 119.13) have already completed. Primary wave C has been underway since early 2010.

The EURUSD weekly chart above better illustrates the current Cycle wave [C] and Primary waves A, B and C. Notice Primary wave A (EUR 123.94-151.44) was a zigzag with three Major waves, and Major wave C subdivided into five Intermediate waves. Primary wave B (EUR 151.44-119.13) was a simple wave. Primary wave C, however, is also unfolding as a zigzag with three Major waves. In fact, Major wave C may subdivide into five Intermediate waves before it concludes.

When we apply fibonacci relationships to the entire structure we arrive at a 2012 EURUSD topping range between 155 and 159. The details. At EUR 159 Cycle wave [C] = Cycle wave [A]. At 157 Primary C = 1.5 Primary A. Then at 155 the second ABC of Cycle [C] = 0.382 the first ABC of Cycle [C]. You can track the Euro along with use by scrolling down the following link: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet....

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2011 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in