Triple Top Forming in U.S. Stock Market, Robert Prechter Explains

Hmmmm----2008/2009 Silver is at $9 but EWI is SURE it is going to $6.50, Gold is at $850 but EWI is SURE it is going to $650, the S&P is at 666 but EWI is SURE is has another wave down sub-$500. Tells readers to cover shorts but DO NOT GO LONG. Sound familiar EWI?

you will have missed out on the entire precious metals run.

According to Mark Hulbert at Hulbert Financial Digest, one of the only organizations that has a long term track record of tracking newsletter performance, Robert Prechter and EWI are in LAST PLACE over the last 20 years among ALL stock market timing strategies:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elliott-wave-adviser-now-aggressively-bearish-2009-11-25

From Mark Hulbert himself:

The last time that [Prechter's] newsletter recommended that traders be long stocks was in 1997, some 12 years ago. In fact, during the bull market of the 1990s, traders following his advice spent most of the time short the market or in cash.

This helps to explain why the newsletter’s timing advice for traders is in last place for performance over the last 20 years among all stock market timing strategies tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.

I found this link a few months ago detailing Prechter’s terrible investment record:

http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090616

Actually, Prechter has been making predictions for many years through his investment newsletter, Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert has been documenting Prechter’s investment trading predictions and picks since 1985 so he now has a nearly 25 year long track record which can tell us whether you should trade on his predictions or not. Here’s how Prechter’s trading advice has done from 1/1/85 through 5/31/09 versus the broad U.S. stock market average (Wilshire 5000 index) according to Hulbert’s analysis:

Annualized Return:

Wilshire 5000 Index + 9.7 percent

Prechter’s Trading Advice -15.4 percent

Total Return:

Wilshire 5000 Index + 857.1 percent

Prechter’s Trading Advice – 98.3 percent

$100,000 Invested (1/1/85-5/31/09):

Wilshire 5000 Index $957,100

Prechter’s Trading Advice $1,700

People, even a stopped clock is right twice a day, which is more than I can say about Prechter and EWI. Yes, one of these days the market will sell-off, and then Prechter will come out on all the media outlets again talking about how right he is, meanwhile, you will have missed out on a 1,000 percent increase in the market and even with the selloff have NO CHANCE of keeping of with the Federal Reserves money printing.

Elliott Wave interpretations are very good for conversations over a bbq. It is also very good for hindsight reflection, i.e. which trades should have been taken and which trades should not have been taken. But it will dig a deep hole in your pocket if you use it for trading.

Yes truthhurtsss I agree. It drives me crazy how many give an alternate count. They will say the market is going to go up but there is an alternate count it might also go down. Or the reverse the market is going down but have alternate count it could also go up. Are you kidding!!! I have a coin that does just as well. I know Nadeem uses it but at least he generally will only give one outlook and NOT hedge it.

Each element of TA is 50/50, one needs to put the effort into far beyond wave counts to be able to reach a probability of making money, there is no easy money, it is hard work to grow ones portfolio at a rate greater than inflation+taxes.

Best

NW