Last Thursdays killing of Pro-REMAIN Labour MP Jo Cox by a right wing extremist has had a dramatic effect on the EU referendum, where a poll lead for LEAVE has evaporated to give REMAIN a marginal lead that this momentum analysis of the most recent polling data attempts to illuminate.

The opinion polls momentum chart clearly shows a trend since Mid May of LEAVE gaining ground against REMAIN which by the start of June had both virtually neck and neck into the 13th of June when LEAVE started to pull away from REMAIN, right up until the murder of MP Jo Cox that literally resulted in momentum being put into reverse gear for LEAVE that has led to the current situation of LEAVE and REMAIN back to being virtually neck and neck.

However, REMAIN has MOMENTUM on its side going into the last few days of the campaign, which therefore implies that unless LEAVE can pull a rabbit out of the hat then REMAINs lead could continue to widen over the last last few days.

Under these circumstances the best that LEAVE can hope for is to maintain the current situation where had both camps are virtually neck and neck. Whether this is happening should shortly become apparent on release of todays polling data.

Against this my forecast conclusion of BEFORE the murder of Jo Cox on the basis of the sum of year long analysis concluded that the most probable result was likely to be LEAVE winning on 51.3% against REMAIN on 48.7%

EU Referendum Forecast - 12th June 16

UK 2016 EU Referendum Forecast

The average of the last 6 polls has REMAIN in the lead on 51% against LEAVE on 49% (11th June). However the REMAIN lead is set against the big picture of momentum being on the side of LEAVE that appears to be ACCELERATING. For instance 3 weeks ago REMAIN were ahead on 54% to 46%, which was typical of the REMAINs lead since the start of 2016 that entered the new year on 56% against 44%.

However, if as I expect that the LEAVE campaign momentum can be maintained for the remaining 11 days then LEAVE should be able to just achieve a tight referendum victory. Therefore the sum of my year long analysis comprising well over 120 articles and over a dozen videos then my forecast conclusion is for a LEAVE victory of 51.3% to 48.7%, a winning margin of less than 2.7%.

But to achieve this victory all Brexiters need to further intensify their efforts because as things stand today (12th June) REMAIN is probably just marginally ahead with less than 1% between REMAIN and LEAVE on an estimated 50.4% REMAIN against 49.6% LEAVE, so there is still a lot of hard work to be done in these last few days do achieve a LEAVE Brexit outcome.

Also see my recent video on the impact of the killing of Jo Cox on EU Referendum campaign, and whether LEAVE can recover it's lost lead by Thursday 23rd June.

https://youtu.be/8udi0YWZY6k

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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