STOCK MARKET CRASH INDICATOR

By: Nadeem_Walayat

STOCK MARKET CRASH INDICATOR

It looks like my last article freighted a lot of patrons, which was not my intention for I already flagged that the risks of a market panic event have been increasingly long before the neural net signaled a 100%+ reading. It is what it is, an independant indicator which increases the probability for lower prices going forward hence I revised my stock market expectations lower as illustrate by the updated stock market trend forecast graph.

Where my strategy is to ride out Financial Crisis 2.0 by strategically being invested in the primarily AI stocks at near fair value i.e. near a PE ratio of 20. And buy when the opportunities arise just as we saw with Facebook, I accumulate for the long-run.

What CI18 Trigger means for me is to -

• Prepare for opportunities to accumulate in the AI portfolio stocks, as don't forget I sold out of 80% of my portfolio during the summer i.e. I hold virtually no Microsoft, Apple,Nvidia, and Amazon and sold ,most of my Google stock.
• That I need to engage in SHORTING stocks, as that is probably where the bulk of my profits for 2022 are going to come from Unfortunately shorting is VERY HIGH RISK , i.e. short-term positions usually spanning days with tight limits and tight stops and that I am rusty in the shorting individual stocks department. For instance the other day I shorted APPLE, at $173, stop $178 with a limit of $158, which got stopped out with a loss. And another very recent short was ROBLOX, shorted at $125, with a stop at $135 and exited at $96. So my response to CI18 is to start shorting stocks on a short-term basis and the more I short the easier it should become to pick the right stocks to short.
• Cancel nearby limit orders in favour of more distant limit orders. One of the benefits of holding a lot of cash on account is that I can have a lot of limit orders in place so I don't have to make decisions when prices are moving fast.

A Patron has asked me to crunch the CI18 numbers again. Firstly a reminder that the CI trigger has been pulled as of 103.4% which regardless of what subsequent runs output still means that the switch is ON. For how long depends on what transpires trend wise, i.e. last time it was short and sweet CRASH! This time it's looking more a bear market, so I am expecting individual stocks crashing with the indices gradually rolling over. However the current run results in an output of 108.5%, which does not increase or decrease the probability of what is to come because the CI18 is a switch that warns of LOWER stock prices ahead it does not tell me what will follow just to expect downwards price action i.e. to change the prism I am viewing the market through with a more downwards bias. So it is highly probable that in future runs ut will result in an even larger percentage. However I would not take any return to sub 100% as a signal for the switch being OFF. For that well you will need my analysis, for at the end of the day it is an indicator with just one job, to flag a warning to expect lower stock prices ahead.

So we are heading into what I expect to be a volatile year for stocks, but in which I see great opportunities that may either come along all at once in a panic event or in series such as we have experienced with with Intel and then Facebook and it looks like we are at the beginnings of such opportunities in AMD and Nvidia.

High Risk Bio and Tech Stocks Portfolio Q4 2021 Update

Contents:
Exponential AI Mega-trend
INVESTING PRIORITY
Why Most Investors LOST Money by Investing in ARK FUNDS
ETF BUBBLE Primed to EXPLODE!
INVEST AND FORGET
BREWING FINANCIAL CRISIS 2.0 - RECESSION 2022
FED TAPER CON TRICK
CP LIE - INFLATION vs DEFLATION
UK Inflation Fraud - Real Inflation is 15%+
The 2% Inflation SCAM, Millions of Workers take the Red Pill
Why Inflation is Soaring
Flip Side High Inflation Winners
Warren Buffetts $130 billion Master Plan
STOCK MARKET CRASH INDICATOR
The Quantum Entangled Stock Market
Unloved Biotech Sector
High Risk Stocks Portfolio
COINBASE $247, Risk 1, P/E 19, +0%
TAKEDA $13.7 - Risk 1, PE 10, -19%
Western Digital $56.7, Risk 2, PE 13, -2%
ABBV $132, Risk 2, PE Ratio 11, 4% Dividend, +24%
CORSAIR $21.7 - Risk 3, PE 11, -26%
Neurocrine Bioscience (NBIX) $84, PE 18, Risk 3
ALI BLAH BLAH BABA (9988) $120, PE 17.2, Risk 3
TENCENT TCEHY (0700) $57, PE 19, Risk 4, -9%
RBLX $95. Risk 6, +7%
CRISPR $74, PE 15.3, RIsk 6, -39%
AVIR P/E 30.5 , Risk 9, -71%
APM $1.88, -37%
ACCUMULATING
AI Stocks Portfolio
Limit Orders
Best Stock Investing Platforms
CRYPTO BRIEF
OMICRON a Fuss About NOTHING

The whole of which was first been made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Also Access to the most recent compressive analysis on how to successfully invest in stocks during 2022 and beyond.

HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond

CONTENTS:
1. UNDERSTAND WHAT INVESTING IS
2. INVEST IN GOOD COMPANIES
3. UNDERSTAND THAT WHICH ONE IS INVESTING IN
4. STOCK PRICES
5. EARNINGS CATCHUP TRADING RANGE TREND PATTERN
6. EMOTIONAL INVESTING
7. MONITORING AND LIMITING EXPOSURE IS MOST IMPORTANT
8. BUY AND SELL on the Basis of VALUATIONS
9. INVESTORS BIGGEST MISTAKE
10. BEST TIME TO BUY STOCKS
11. WORST TIME TO BUY STOCKS
12. BUY VOLATILITY
13. INVESTING TIME
14. FUND MANAGERS
15. OPTIONS
16 . INFLATION
17. INVEST AND FOREGET
AI Tech Stocks Draw down and End of Year 2022 Price Targets
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE

And access to my extensive analysis on how to capitalise on the metaverse. Best Stocks To Profit From the $1+ Trillion Emerging Metaverse Mega-trend

Contents:
VR and Gaming Becomes the Metaverse
A Video Message from Your Metaverse Analyst
PRIMARY META-VERSE STOCKS
QUANTUM AI METAVERSE STOCKS
METAVERSE STOCKS UNIVERSE
Google Glass a Big Fat FAIL
META (Facebook) Dominating VR
APPLE AR Headset Coming 2022
ROBLOX - High Risk
TENCENT- Chinese High Risk GAMING
XXXXXX - CAD - $254 RISK - 3 OUT OF 10
XXXXXX - RISK 3 OUT OF 10.
XXXXXX NEW LIFE FOR AGEING GAMING GIANT? RISK 2 OUT OF 10
XXXXXX - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - RISK 8 OUT OF 10
INTEL Black Friday Sale!
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK!
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE!
XXXXX
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
AI Stocks - What's Cheap
AI Stocks - What's far value
AI Stocks - What's expensive?
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
Current State of Cathy Wood ARKK Garbage
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Bubbles
DECENTRALAND
SANDBOX
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse
Bitcoin Trend Analysis
Crypto Current Portfolio
Covid19 Winter Storm Fuel for Financial Crisis 2.0
OMICRON - The 'Oh Dear' Worst Ever Covid Strain?
Consequences for the Stock Markets?
Financial Crisis 2.0 Current State - TAPERING
Financial Crisis 2.0 Stock Market Bubble Investing Strategy
Why You Should Not Fear a 50% Draw down in Your Stocks Portfolio
What's driving asset price inflation?
Inflation Forecasting a Recession In 2022
UK Inflation Hits 30 year High of 6%
UK Energy Customers Falling into Energy Firms Fixed Rate Tariffs Trap
Fin tech Stock - NEW STOCK

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My analysis schedule includes:

• Stock Market Trend forecast 2022 - Currently underway
• UK House Prices Trend Analysis, including an update for the US and a quick look at Canada and China - 65% done
• How to Get Rich! - 90% done - This is a good 6 month work in progress nearing completion.

• US Dollar and British Pound analysis
• Gold Price Trend Analysis - 10%

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Your metaverse invested analyst.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2021 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.