Category: Global Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Thursday, October 07, 2010
IMF Warns of Slower Economic Growth As Currency War Rages On / Economics / Global Economy
Don Miller writes: Meetings of the Group of Seven (G-7) countries in Washington this week could feature a clash of views that have sparked an international currency war even as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that growth in developed economies is slowing.
The conflict represents a fundamental disagreement about how to sustain the global economic recovery among countries that prefer flexible exchange rates like the United States, and others that are resisting calls to allow its currency to appreciate, like China.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 02, 2010
The Morality of Chinese Econimic Growth, Crude Oil at $125 a Barrel, Gasoline at $5 / Economics / Global Economy
Oil at $125 a Barrel, Gasoline at $5
David Rosenberg and Capacity Utilization
Gary Shilling: Commercial Real Estate and Employment
The Morality of Chinese Growth
This week I am at a conference in Houston. I must confess that I don’t attend many of the sessions at most conferences where I speak. But today, the guys at Streettalk Advisors have such a great lineup that I am there for every session. But it’s Friday and I need to write. The solution? This week you get a “best of” letter. The best ideas I’ve heard and the best charts I’ve seen at this conference. Then we close with two short but very thoughtful essays from Charles Gave and Arthur Kroeber of GaveKal on “The Morality of Chinese Growth.” Lots of charts and something to make you think. Should be a good letter.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Competitive Currency Devaluations Race, Not Every One Can Run a Trade Surplus / Economics / Global Economy
The Last Half
But It's More Than the Deficit
Not Everyone Can Run a Surplus
Pity the Greeks
The Competitive Currency Devaluation Raceway
There are a number of economic forces in play in today's world, not all of them working in the same direction, which makes choosing policies particularly difficult. Today we finish what we started last week, the last half of the last chapter I have to write to get a rough draft of my forthcoming book, The End Game. (Right now, though, it appears this will actually be the third chapter.) We will start with a few paragraphs to help you remember where we were (or you can go to http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22482.html to read the first part of the chapter).
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 11, 2010
US Ranks Fourth In Global Competitiveness / Economics / Global Economy
I think the biggest surprise for US readers might be how high the US ranks in global competitiveness, and the countries that rank the highest. And of course there is the absence of China in the top ten. Shocking when viewed through the lens of an artificially managed-to-the-dollar currency pair.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 07, 2010
Real Economic GDP Growth, U.S. vs Germany / Economics / Global Economy
As Chart 1 shows, German real GDP growth, at an annualized rate of 9.0%, blew away U.S. growth at a paltry 1.6%. A number of factors might account for the stronger performance of the German in economy in the second quarter vs. the U.S. But one I want to concentrate on is the change in credit provided by private-sector financial institutions. These data are presented in Chart 2. I do not have oranges-to-oranges data to compare, but I do have oranges to tangerines data.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 06, 2010
A Little Rice Wine Spat: Taiwan vs. U.S. and EU / Politics / Global Economy
Taiwan, (aka The Republic of China, ROC), the tiny island just across the Strait from China-- found itself taking considerable heat from the United States and European Union (EU)—two biggest exporters of alcoholic beverages to the Taiwanese market--over a planned tax cut on its locally brewed rice wine.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Strong GDP Growth For German Economy, Weak for U.S. Economy / Economics / Global Economy
This week we take a look at GDP stats from the robust German economy, and the less than robust US economy. Then we look closer at the US situation; reviewing the existing home sales data, and consumer sentiment data. We then wrap up with a review of the July trade figures from Japan.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 16, 2010
Global Economics and the “Baton Toss” / Economics / Global Economy
Recent conferencing in Toronto was another waypoint in the transit of global authority. The G8 (G7+Russia) economics discussion group began broadening a decade ago with creation of a forum of economic ministries. The western banking crisis pushed that larger forum to heads of government level. The long planned G8 gabfest in a wealthy enclave of Ontario’s cottage country had a city centre G20 (G19+EU) gathering appended to it. Even protest groups who claimed allegiance with emerging economies a decade ago knew G8 was but a preamble and focused on the quickly organized G20 fete.&
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 10, 2010
IMF World Economic Growth Forecast Outlook Update / Economics / Global Economy
This week we look at the languishing US consumer credit figures, and the slowing non-manufacturing PMI, then examine the continued string of strong jobs growth in Australia, followed by a wrap-up of some of the key monetary policy decisions this week, and a review of the IMF World Economic Outlook update.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 09, 2010
Uncertainty Undermining the Global Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Economy
Don Miller writes: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said yesterday (Thursday) that the global economic recovery is losing steam because uncertainty in financial markets is keeping businesses and consumers from investing in future growth.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
The Myth of the Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy
If there’s one thing everyone knows these days, whether they’re happy about it or not, it’s that we live in a “global” economy. This fact is taken as so obvious that anyone who disputes it is regarded as not so much wrong as simply ignorant—not even worth arguing with. So it may come as a shock to many that, in reality, the cliché that we live in a borderless global economy does not survive serious examination. The key is to ignore the Thomas Friedmanesque rhetoric the media is flooded with and get down to some hard numbers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 02, 2010
G20 Economic Stimulus Stalemate in Toronto / Politics / Global Economy
Last week, global attention was focused on Toronto as the G-20 gathered to confront the growing financial and economic worries darkening the global economic horizon. In an irony worthy of Orwell, the representatives of the world's top 20 economies (19 countries plus the European Union) managed to ignore the out-of-control spending contained in Western governments' budgets and instead unite behind a banner that they called "financial responsibility." This is akin to a group of Mafiosi holding a summit on business ethics.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Stimulus or Austerity, The People vs. the Banks / Politics / Global Economy
The most powerful nations in the world met recently at the G-20 in Toronto and managed to agree on only one thing of significance: the need to reduce deficits, “half by 2013.” Implied by the statement is the need to lower deficits via “austerity,” meaning eliminating or reducing social programs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Industrial Production, Commodity Prices, and Inflation / Economics / Global Economy
This week we look at Industrial Production figures from the US, EU, Japan and China, and then we take a look at where commodities are tracking, before reviewing the inflation results out over the week from the US and EU. Then we finish up with a review of the monetary policy decisions from Japan, Switzerland, and Mexico. The analysis echoes some of the comments made in the economic calendar for the week just past.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 19, 2010
China Warns Obama Ahead of G20 Summit / Politics / Global Economy
On Thursday, ahead of the G20 summit, China warns against finger-pointing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Chinese Workers Force the Issue / Economics / Global Economy
Neeraj Chaudhary writes: It's starting to look like Chinese labor has had enough. Led by workers at the Honda Motors plant in Zhangshan, and perhaps spurred by the suicides of ten workers this year at Foxconn Technology (a supplier to high technology companies such as Apple, Dell, and Hewlett-Packard), Chinese factory workers and other laborers across the country are going on strike. In so doing, these workers are defying the orders of their government-run unions and risking dismissal by their employers. I believe that this monumental step in the development of China's economy will result in a positive outcome. From an international perspective, these strikes may do more than improve working conditions in Chinese factories; they may, in fact, force a currency reform (long-delayed by the Chinese Communist Party) that will have serious implications for the global economy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 11, 2010
China Trade War Threat, Who's Fault is it? / Politics / Global Economy
Congress is one again shaking its currency-manipulation rattle. What's different this time is Geithner appears to be listening.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 07, 2010
India, Australia, Canda GDP Trends and Monetary Policy Update / Economics / Global Economy
This week we look at the surging growth in the Indian economy, continued improvement in the GDP results from Australia, a strengthening recovery in the Canadian economy, and monetary policy decisions by Australia and Canada, and finish up with a look at the US nonfarm payroll figures which showed strong census hiring and not much else.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 30, 2010
China’s Currency Manipulation About to Cause an Global Economic Trade War? / Economics / Global Economy
Tim Geithner, Hillary Clinton and 200 other American bigwigs visited China this week.
First on the agenda: China’s position on the rising tensions between North and South Korea.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Amid the Financial Turmoil One Economic Indicator is Soaring / Economics / Global Economy
The financial world is coming unglued again. Greece has pushed the E.U. to the brink. Global stock markets are tumbling.And yet, at the same time at least one economic indicator is soaring. The Baltic Dry Index.
Read full article... Read full article...