Category: Global Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, January 04, 2019
China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen / Economics / Global Economy
By: FXCOT
We had noted of the coming storm in equity markets worldwide in our research to clients. A part of that research can be found herE: The coming storm . Also here: We did say. We also had noted of the fall in USDJPY rom 113 to 110 levels. But the pair fell even more and wiping away billions in retail margins.
We do suggest to forex traders to keep us boookmarked and also follow us on twitter. You can also register to be updated of important research we send so you are not caught on the wrong side of the market.
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Wednesday, December 05, 2018
Global Economic Outlook after Trump-Xi Trade War Timeout / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
As many hoped, the highly anticipated Trump-Xi meeting in the Buenos Aires G20 Summit resulted in a truce. The devil is in the details.
As the G20 Summit ended in Buenos Aires, the G20 official summit statement acknowledged flaws in global commerce, called for reforming the World Trade Organization (WTO) and deleted the word “protectionism” after U.S. resistance.
The statement was completed only after hours of diplomatic bargaining over the night. As far as the European Union (EU) was concerned, the U.S. was the lone holdout on almost every issue in Buenos Aires, particularly in climate change.
Monday, November 26, 2018
Trump’s Next Target: World Trade Organization / Politics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the past few months, the Trump White House has started trade wars against its major trade partners, particularly China, and security allies. Without international opposition, the next target will be the World Trade Organization.
As the White House began to escalate the U.S.-Sino trade war last spring, President Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro was asked on CNN whether the United States is planning to leave the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Sunday, November 18, 2018
World Trade Organization At Risk / Politics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the past two years, the Trump administration has started trade wars against China, its major trade partners, and security allies. In the absence of united opposition by advanced and emerging economies, the next target will be the World Trade Organization.As the White House began to escalate the U.S.-Sino trade war last April, President Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro was asked on CNN whether the United States is planning to leave the World Trade Organization (WTO).
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Sunday, October 07, 2018
Looking at the “New NAFTA” Trade Agreement / Stock-Markets / Global Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
Well, this is getting exciting!We just got an agreement this morning with Canada and Mexico to replace NAFTA, which has driven the markets higher.
I thought the Trump-induced trade war with China would have resolved by now as well. At the beginning of the summer I forecast that the president would talk big, beat on a couple of trade partners with some tariffs, then quickly reach a negotiated truce and claim victory.
It hasn’t turned out that way.
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Saturday, September 15, 2018
Trading The Global Future - Bad Consequences / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
The Trump administration’s ‘America First’ policies come at a critical time in the global economy. These bad policies will have adverse consequences in international trade. In the absence of countervailing forces, they could unsettle the post-2008 global recovery and undermine postwar globalization.This summer, the Trump administration’s tariff war penalized $50 billion worth of goods traded between the US and China.
The next stage of White House escalation will impact up to $200 billion of Chinese imports, and result in proportionate Chinese retaliation.
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Monday, September 10, 2018
U-Turn or Perfect Storm? Globalization a Decade after the Financial Crisis / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
A decade ago, globalization peaked. Today, it remains in the doldrums. Consequently, the Trump trade wars take place at a historical moment, when globalization may further stagnate or even fall apart.On Friday September 7, President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on $267 billion in Chinese goods, on top of the additional $200 billion that he said will likely be hit with import taxes in a matter of days.
If the tariff stakes would increase close to $500 billion, it could penalize Chinese GDP by 1.0%, but the US GDP, which is relatively more vulnerable, would suffer a net impact of 2.0% of GDP.
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Monday, August 06, 2018
Restructuring of Western Economic Power / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
According to BRIC projections, the economic power of the BRICs is on the rise. But the other side of the coin is equally interesting. Among the G6 countries, US economic power is increasing at the expense of Europe and Japan.Recently, the 10th BRICS Summit took place in Johannesburg, South Asia. As the international focus has been on the BRIC prospects in the future, it is often forgotten that when the first BRIC reports were published in the early 2000s, they also featured projections about the likely growth of major advanced economies.
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Friday, June 08, 2018
Advanced World’s Reality: G6 Summit Minus G1 / Politics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
The G7 Summit is split between the United States and six other major advanced economies. President Trump’s unipolar economic and strategic doctrines are undermining US alliances, world trade – and America itself.Recently, the Trump administration’s officials marked its 500 days with a chorus of tweets. “Many believe I’ve accomplished more than any other president,” Trump said. When he arrived in the office, markets had enjoyed an unsustainable boom, as corporate America expected the president to fulfill his pledges of radical liberalization, privatization and deregulation.
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Monday, May 07, 2018
Global Synchronized Economic Slowdown / Economics / Global Economy
By: Michael_Pento
Not too long ago the overwhelming consensus from the perennial Wall Street Carnival Barkers was that investors were enjoying a global growth renaissance that would last for as far as the eye can see. Unfortunately, it didn’t take much time to de-bunk that fairy tale. After a lackluster start to 2018, the market's expectations for global growth for the remainder of this year is now waning with each tick higher in bond yields.
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Saturday, December 09, 2017
China’s Struggle for Market Economy Status / Politics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, the Trump administration joined the EU and rejected the view that under the WTO terms China should have graduated last year to market-economy status. Now Trump is using Obama’s accession legacy to undermine world trade.The accession debacle intensified a year ago, when then president-elect Trump stated categorically in Iowa that “China is not a market economy.”
In the prior months, Trump had pledged to beat back the Trans-Pacific Partnership TPP (which he buried on his inaugural day), undo the North-American Free Trade Agreement NAFTA (whose fifth round of talks ended recently in simmering friction), and impose huge tariffs on China and rewrite the rules of world trade - in which the accession mess could prove a milestone.
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Friday, November 10, 2017
US-China Trade at Global Crossroads / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite “America First” policies, President Trump’s economic agenda needs expanding trade with China.President Donald Trump began his grueling 12-day Asia tour amid US Special Counsel’s first indictments, which cast a shadow over the White House’s future.
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Wednesday, September 06, 2017
The Great Shift of Global Economic Power / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
BRIC economies continue to grow. In the late 2020s, the size of China’s economy will surpass that of the US. By the early 2030s, the BRICs’ combined economic power will surpass that of major advanced nations.The BRICS Summit in Xiamen, Fujian province, signals the rising might of the large emerging economies, such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil. South Africa does not fulfill the criteria of a true BRIC economy - large population, strong growth record and catch-up potential - but it has historically played a key role in African governance.
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Sunday, August 20, 2017
The Peak of Globalization and The Reason Trump Won / Politics / Global Economy
By: Harry_Dent
Fareed Zakaria just put out a special show on why Trump won: He got the rural white vote in unprecedented margins – like 80% plus. Even before Election Day, we put out an infographic explaining why Trump could win despite the polls. Still, even I was a little surprised when he won!I bring this up again now, not to bash Trump, but to highlight the demographic and cyclical explanation behind his victory. And to show that the events that brought Trump into power aren’t done stirring things up. There’s a lot more to come. Trump is only the beginning…
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Friday, August 18, 2017
The World May Soon Split in Two Trading Blocs—Here’s How to Position Your Portfolio / Politics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : What do freight trains, oil supertankers, and the Trump administration’s trade plans have in common? Once they get going, they’re pretty much unstoppable.
Trump wants to punish nations he thinks treat US companies unfairly. And China is first on his list.
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Friday, July 14, 2017
Trump’s Trade Policies Are Provoking A Global Trade War— How to Hedge Your Portfolio / Politics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON :Removing barriers to international trade has both upside and downside. Donald Trump is now president in part because he focused on the downside: lost US jobs, closed factories, blighted communities.
Even more important, he's fundamentally changing the way government looks at trade policy.
Trade negotiations have long had the implicit goal of promoting peace. It’s a fact that nations with active business relationships rarely attack each other, though the security aspect used to stay mostly unspoken.
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Thursday, July 06, 2017
Here’s Why This G20 Meeting Doesn’t Really Matter / Politics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Anyone who has ever been to a meeting knows that meetings are often confounding, frustrating affairs. Most of them are designed simply to be held. The people who attend them are unlikely to agree on anything except maybe the date of the next one.
The G-20 summit is no exception.
But that’s only because the people who attend it, the leaders of the countries with the world’s 20 largest economies, think of themselves as decision-makers when really they are hostages to history.
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Monday, July 03, 2017
Are Advanced Economies Ready for Recovery, Really? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Or Global Reflation As China Begins Tightening
Until recently, the conventional wisdom was that China’s contribution to global reflation would be increasingly accompanied by those of the US and Europe. Yet, the realities may look grimmer than anticipated.
Usually, the term ‘reflation’ is used to describe the first phase of economic recovery after a period of contraction. More recently, ‘global reflation’ has been deployed to refer to the post-crisis past decade, which has been characterized by lingering recovery from the global crisis, despite ultra-low rates and quantitative easing.
Sunday, July 02, 2017
The China-EU-US-Triangle Déjà Vu / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
The new rapprochement between Brussels and Beijing involves converging economic interests between Europe and China – and diverging strategic interests between Europe and America.A day after the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, Le Monde declared that “we are all Americans.” But the honeymoon of shared suffering ended quickly when US military revenge raged across Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere. Instead, a deep and broad transatlantic rift emerged, thanks to bitter disagreements about President Bush’s foreign policy revolution.
Today, many feel an odd sense of déjà vu.
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Saturday, June 17, 2017
Here’s The Case For An Upside Risk In The Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
One of the true riddles in the economic world today is a steady drop in total global productivity over the last few decades. That’s in spite of the growing use of computers, robotics, and artificial intelligence.
In theory, productivity should have gone up, but it didn’t.
Professor and Nobel laureate Robert Gordon and others have foreseen that the GDP growth will decline to less than 1%, and they have all sorts of data to back up their claim.
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