Category: Recession 2008 - 2010
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Strong U.S. Dollar Foreshadows Economic Doom in 2010 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Normally, in what passes for Orthodox economics, a strong currency for a consumer nation is a good thing, a positive development. And America is the biggest consumer, and one of the smallest producers, in human history.
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Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Bernanke, Time’s Person of the Year Drives the Debt Crisis Spiral / Politics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Fed President Ben Bernanke has been named Time magazine’s Person of the Year for 2009. However, in looking back at former People of the Year it becomes crystal clear that this title doesn’t necessarily mean that the honored person has done something good for the world …
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Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Brace Yourself For a Hard Economic Landing / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Ben Bernanke has been a bigger disaster than Hurricane Katrina. But the senate is about to re-up him for another four-year term. What are they thinking? Bernanke helped Greenspan inflate the biggest speculative bubble of all time, and still maintains that he never saw it growing. Right. How can retail housing leap from $12 trillion to $21 trillion in 7 years (1999 to 2006) without popping up on the Fed's radar? It's not possible. Bernanke is just fudging the facts to save his skin.
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Monday, December 21, 2009
The Long Decline of the U.S. Economy / Politics / Recession 2008 - 2010
The official position on the cause of the current financial downturn is that it was caused by the reckless practices of financial institutions and the failure of regulatory bodies, and it is likely that these were the proximate causes, but they were not the ultimate cause. Americans, unfortunately, are rarely willing to search for ultimate causes or do anything about them when they are found.
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Monday, December 21, 2009
U.S. Economy Faces a Very Unhappy New Year 2010 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Since US business investment peaked in 2008 it has dropped by 20 per cent. Not to worry though. According to Professor Blinder -- an eminent Princeton economist -- the situation will reverse itself because "plants and equipment wear out". This is an incredible statement for professor of economics to make. It assumes an automatic process that replaces capital once it is consumed. But capital replacement requires a human decision based on the availability of savings and favourable expectations about the future.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Economic Contraction will Continue in 2010 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
My wife and I watched Oprah interviewing President and Mrs. Obama for her Christmas Special. The closing message that President Obama tried to communicate was one of hope – that the worst is behind us and, with hard work and determination, America can rebuild.Whilst the sentiments are admirable and probably believable in terms of America’s ability to rebuild – and possibly even true – there are serious questions regarding whether the worst is behind us.
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Monday, December 14, 2009
Economic Recovery Mission Not Accomplished / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Although Barack Obama has refrained, at least for now, from delivering triumphant speeches in a naval flight suit, there is nevertheless a strong tone of accomplishment emanating from the President and his deputies. Over the weekend, top White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers even pronounced that the recession is now over.
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Monday, December 14, 2009
U.S. Economy Forecast 2010, The Year of Severe Economic Contraction / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Upbeat reports in the financial media, belie the effects of the ongoing credit contraction. Massive injections of central bank liquidity have prevented the collapse of financial markets, but have done nothing to ease the deleveraging of households or stimulate activity the broader economy.
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Monday, December 14, 2009
America's Race to the Bottom / Politics / Recession 2008 - 2010
David Michael Green writes: I sure hope that there is a full and speedy recovery to the massive recession we are all now suffering under.
But, I'll be honest. I doubt that there will be. Most of the upticks following our latest national downturns have been dismal enough that economists have had to invent a new term for them. The phrase is "jobless recovery", and the implications are as ugly as they sound.
Monday, December 14, 2009
U.S. Economy Looking Very Sick Indeed / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
No matter how the administration's friends and media lapdogs try to paint it the US economy is still in rotten shape. In fact, the situation is far worse than most people realise. Manufacturing surveys suggest a slow though steady recovery. I don't buy it, at least not yet. These surveys also report that the situation for unfilled orders is deteriorating, which means that orders for capital goods in the form of machinery is falling. Industrial production for October to October was down 7.1 per cent. Although it's true that industrial production from May to October is up by 2.5 per cent it is still below its 2002 level.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Statistics Numbers, Official, Unofficial, Real / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Last Friday we got word that the employment picture in the U.S. improved substantially over the month of November. According to the Labor Department, the nation shed 11,000 jobs, a mere fraction of the 130,000 economists were expecting.
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Monday, December 07, 2009
Bernanke Says He Cannot Guarantee Double-Dip Recession Won’t Happen / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, in a speech to the Economic Club of Washington, said that it is too early to declare a lasting recovery:
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Saturday, December 05, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Rate Edges Lower to 10%, But Jobs Keep Contracting / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the November Employment Report.
The unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-11,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In the prior 3 months, payroll job losses had averaged 135,000 a month. In November, employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and information, while temporary help services and health care added jobs..
Saturday, December 05, 2009
Mauldin on the Debt Deleveraging, Deflationary, Asset-bubble-bursting Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
This week I am in New York, and have a whirlwind of meetings (and I admit, a lot of fun on the side) and not much time to write. I have been saving today’s letter for a month or so, for a time such as this. Damien Hoffman of the Wall Street Cheat Sheet interviewed me and posted the transcript on his web site. I thought it was one of the better interviews I have done recently, and so it is this week’s Thoughts from the Frontline. In addition to the wide-ranging economic questions, he asks for my thoughts on how one becomes an investment writer. I often demur when asked that question (what do I know?), but did my best to answer this time. I think you will enjoy the letter. (By the way, he does a lot of interesting interviews, which he posts for free on his web site at www.wallstcheatsheet.com.)
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Friday, December 04, 2009
Britain, the Canary down the Western Coal Mine / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Thursday, December 03, 2009
Arizona Runs Out of Cash / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Here is a good story courtesy of the Arizona Republic: Cash-short Ariz. maxes out new line of credit.
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Thursday, November 26, 2009
Soaring Unemployment and Double-dip Recession? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Barack Obama's chief economic advisor, Lawrence Summers, is determined to sabotage a second round of stimulus. And, he's getting plenty of help, too. Congressional Democrats are dragging their feet because they're worried about the political backlash and midterm elections, the GOP deficit hawks are looking for a way they can derail the Obama agenda and reestablish their bone fides as fiscal conservatives, and the bailout-traumatized American people are simply opposed to anything that generates more red ink. Even Obama has joined the fray and started badmouthing stimulus stressing the importance of living within our means and trimming the deficits. So it looks like a done-deal; no more stimulus. There's only one problem, without another blast of stimulus the economy is headed for the skids.
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Tuesday, November 24, 2009
The Economic Crisis and What Must be Done / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
The United States does not control its own destiny. Rather it is controlled by an international financial elite, of which the American branch works out of big New York banks like J.P. Morgan Chase, Wall Street investment firms such as Goldman Sachs, and the Federal Reserve System. They in turn control the White House, Congress, the military, the mass media, the intelligence agencies, both political parties, the universities, etc. No one can rise to the top in any of these institutions without the elite’s stamp of approval.
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Friday, November 20, 2009
The U.S. Recession Jobless Interest Rate Conundrum / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Just about everywhere you look these days in the financial media, when the topic of discussion turns to the plunging U.S. dollar, you'll hear someone saying something like, "Unless the Fed raises interest rates, the dollar's got nowhere to go but down".
And then someone invariably says, "But the central bank can't raise interest rates. Not with the unemployment rate at over ten percent!"
Friday, November 20, 2009
Obama Warns of Double Dip Economic Recession / Politics / Recession 2008 - 2010
When I was a kid, a “double dip” was an ice cream cone with two scoops. Yummy,
Today, the same expression is being used to warn us that the recession we are still struggling with could, and is supposedly posed for recovery could fall even deeper into another dip. That d word seems to be a substitute for another—a depression.
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