Category: Recession 2008 - 2010
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
If This is Economic Recovery, Where Are the Increased Tax Revenues? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
If This is Recovery, Where Are the Taxes?
Last Business Standing
Stimulus, What Stimulus?
The Reality of Unemployment
Let the Good Times Roll
The Quick Double-Dip Scenario
No one goes into Wal-Mart and asks to pay extra sales tax. Thus sales taxes are reasonable barometers for retail sales. This week we look at how taxes are doing in a period of economic recovery. Then we turn our eyes to a very interesting (and sobering) analysis of possible future unemployment rates. This is an anecdote to the happy-face analysis of employment numbers you get from establishment economists. There will be a lot of charts and tables, so this letter may print a little longer, but I think you will find it very interesting.
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Friday, November 13, 2009
U.S. Job Losses Demystified / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Peter_Schiff
As the unemployment rate crossed the double digit barrier for the first time since Michael Jackson learned to moonwalk, President Obama announced that he will convene a “jobs summit” to finally bring the problem under control. Using all the analytic skill that his administration can muster, the President is determined to figure out why so many people are losing their jobs and then formulate a solution. That's a relief; for a while there, I thought we were in real trouble! In fact, the absolute last thing our economy needs is more federal government interference. If Obama really wants to know what's behind entrenched joblessness, he should start by looking at the man in the mirror.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Governments in a Hurry to Borrow Cash to Re-Finance Debt / Interest-Rates / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Adrian_Ash
"With 30-year bond yields still lower than they were before last winter's wipe-out, there's an urgency about refinancing debt as 2010 draws near..."
IT'S NOT JUST the US Treasury that needs to borrow more, for longer, over the next few months and years.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Out of Control Government Budget Deficits in Eurozone, UK, USA and Japan / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Budget deficits are soaring and printing presses are running at full steam everywhere you look including Germany and the Eurozone countries. Please consider Recession Upends German Zeal for Fiscal Prudence.
Monday, November 09, 2009
U.S. Real Unemployment Hits Depression Level Numbers of 17.5% / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
This is bad. Double-digit unemployment. In October, unemployment soared to 10.2%. 16 million people are out of work. The average work week is down to 33 hours. Payrolls have contracted 22 months straight. The "real" jobless rate (underemployment) is now 17.5% and rising. These are Great Depression numbers. The country is in a Depression. So, why is there no talk of federal work programs? Why no WPA?
Sunday, November 08, 2009
U.S. U3 Unemployment Going To 13%, Link To Summers And The Russian Mafia? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Andrew_Butter
There is a theory that Government Stimulus can create jobs. There have been a lot of theories banded around recently; the more they are proven to be totally wrong, the faster they come.
Friday, November 06, 2009
How Important Was the October U.S. Jobs Report? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Sy_Harding
The Labor Department reported on Friday that 190,000 more jobs were lost in October, only slightly worse than the consensus forecast of 175,000 lost jobs, and job losses for August and September were revised to fewer losses than previously reported. Good news. The negative surprise was that the unemployment rate shot up from 9.8% in September to 10.2% in October, considerably worse than expectations that unemployment would rise to 9.9%.
Friday, November 06, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Soars to 10.2% / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Peter_Schiff
Two dissatisfied customers comment about a restaurant. One says, "The food here is terrible." The other replies, "I know, and such small portions!" In many ways, they could be describing our current employment picture. Not only are the portions shrinking, but the jobs themselves are steadily losing quality.
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Friday, November 06, 2009
Flashback: Bernanke on Unemployment: ‘we don’t think it will get to 10 percent’ / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mac_Slavo
Today’s unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics is anything but a green shoot. The official U-3 unemployment number is 10.2%. The broader and more comprehensive official unemployment number, the U-6, is at 17.5%. The U-6 counts all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, and all the people who dropped off unemployment benefits because their unemployment benefits ran out. John Williams at Shadowstats.com suggests that real unemployment is actually running at 22%, which, by our calculation, is approaching Great Depression unemployment numbers.
Friday, November 06, 2009
The Ultimate Conditions For Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Jim_Willie_CB
With the steady stream of claims toward an economic recovery, one must do a reality check from time to time. The Gross Domestic Product for 3Q2009 reflected a solid temporary push from the absurdly inefficient and costly Clunker Car Program, and an inventory drawdown that finally arrived. Both factors contributed to a lift in GDP that in no way testify to a recovery. The Productivity at 9.5% for Q3 is the latest story of a supposed recovery. Well, if the truth be told, the combination of business liquidation and significant worker cuts adds to output with the advantage of the negative incremental workers.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
What's Wrong With U.S. Consumer Confidence? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Guy_Lerner
This is an interesting video taken from CNBC's "Squawk On The Street" - The show's host, Mark Haines, is incredulous that last Tuesday's consumer confidence number came in lower than expected. Haines mutters: "What the heck is that all about?" As Haines goes onto explain, housing is higher in most major markets and corporate profits are better. The only thing missing was the next statement out of his mouth, and I will fill in the blanks: "What do people want?"
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
Better Manufacturing Economic Data Boosts Equity Markets / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Lloyds_TSB
Better-than-expected manufacturing data helped to restore the upward momentum in global equity markets yesterday, while at the same time putting the US dollar under renewed downward pressure against the higher yielders. The US ISM manufacturing PMI jumped from 52.6 in September to 55.7 in October – its highest since April 2006. The improvement was led by a sharp rise in the survey’s employment index, from 46.2 to 53.1, raising an upside risk for Friday’s October nonfarm payroll report (see chart).
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
State Budgets, How Bad Will it Get? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Rick_Wolff
Crises expose the system's irrationalities and wasteful resource allocations. For example, Madoff and his many, smaller imitators reveal the tips of corruption icebergs. More important, the crisis-induced fiscal emergencies looming in most of the 50 states demonstrate several absurdities in our economic system.
Saturday, October 31, 2009
The US Recession Is Not Over, But The Party Is / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Andrew_Butter
“Technically” it’s over, perhaps, but that 3.5% annualized was entirely due to the government borrowing money and giving it to people to spend on things that will not generate long-term economic value:
Cash for Clunkers (1%) + $8,000 New Homebuyers (1%) + Government Spending (0.5%) + This and That (1%) = 3.5%.
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Friday, October 30, 2009
Unemployment Falls at State Level as People Drop Out of Workforce, Costco Nationwide Food Stamps / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Trader_Mark
A couple of items from the "real economy" - we have not had much time to focus on that this week as we lather ourselves in Kool Aid of federal government/central bank fiat money and all the good it does for us chosen folk in the speculator class.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
South Africa Rocked by Financial Crisis as Unemployment and Debt Soar / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Danny_Schechter
Johannesburg: There was lots of skepticism when I came to South Africa two years ago to show my film IN DEBT WE TRUST. While my critique of consumer debt resonated, the film’s forecast of a financial crisis didn’t. Their economy seemed to be doing well and it was hard to tell a society that tends to look inward that they would be affected by a financial crisis in America, l0,000 miles away.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
PhD In Distress about Overqualified Candidates Fresh Out of College With Nowhere To Go / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
In response to How Being The Slightest Bit Overqualified Can Cost You A Job I received several interesting Emails.
Here is an Email from "PhD In Distress" about overqualified candidates fresh out of college with nowhere to go, competing for jobs that essentially do not exist.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Under Pressure / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Lloyds_TSB
US treasuries were under pressure most of yesterday, ahead of heavy issuance this week. There was some follow-through to higher UK swap rates, but these fell back after market sentiment for equities turned negative towards the close of play. Ahead today, the CBI distributive trades survey will provide an early indicator of UK retail activity in October.
Monday, October 26, 2009
America's Jobs Disaster / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Christopher_Westley
Is the Great Recession about to end? This has been the dominant meme at least since June, when my local paper, the Anniston Star, ran a front page story by McClatchy's Kevin Hall with the headline, "Economists: Recession Nearing End as Unemployment Dips."
Sad to say, though, that if such news is the basis for optimism, in June or today, then we are in trouble.
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Saturday, October 24, 2009
The Global Debt Crisis is Destroying the Economic Structure / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Bob_Chapman
Last week Federal Reserve credit declined $12.9 billion, up 21% yoy. Fed foreign holdings of Treasury/Agency debt rose $4.1 billion to a record $2.865 trillion. Custody holdings for foreign central banks expanded at a 17.5% rate ytd, and yoy 15.2%.
M-2 narrow money supply fell $23.3 billion to $8.341 trillion, that is 5.9% yoy.
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