Category: Great Depression II
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, May 27, 2022
Greater Depression Now!? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Raymond_Matison
Most investors know that a recession is defined by a decline in national GDP for two quarters, that is, two three month periods. Investors also have experienced economic pundits writing or announcing that “we may experience a recession in the next several quarters, or expect one in the next one to two years”. It seems that we are actually never in a recession, but rather a recession may be experienced by the public in the not too distant future.
In one respect that viewpoint is understandable since it takes several months for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to confirm that the economy has previously experienced two quarters of negative growth, and thus they can never confirm that we are in a recession, but rather we can only know with a lag that we have previously experienced a recession. It could take up to a year for the NBER to confirm that we were in a recession, but by the time they are able to confirm this fact – we may already have exited that recession. Also, it requires significant lags of time to confirm that the economy continues to remain in a recession. Thus, such information may be valuable and interesting to economists, but because of reporting and confirmation lags, it has essentially no value to the consumer.
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Saturday, February 29, 2020
The Greatest Economic Depression Just Began. This Is No Drill / Economics / Great Depression II
By: The_Gold_Report
Bob Moriarty of 321gold rings the alarm bells on the fallout from the coronavirus. Exactly a month ago I warned that the coronavirus outbreak was going to pop the "Everything Bubble." I did something fairly subtle. I buried my main message under a whole heap of cow manure. It doesn't make a rat's ass if I was right or wrong about calling for a market crash in October or the Fed dumping piles of new crisp $100 bills onto a bonfire in September.
This time I'm going to put my message right at the top so no one can miss it. I quote from the January 27th piece, "This has the potential for being the biggest mass casualty event in world history. At the very least it will take down the financial system as the world economy grinds to a halt with efforts to contain the virus."
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Thursday, December 19, 2019
What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Raymond_Matison
Over the last several years numerous highly respected money managers and other economic writers have been warning investors about a coming recession or depression. However, few have been willing to describe as to what we may actually experience going through such an economic period.
Of course it seems a daunting task to foresee the future. To predict how technology may change our lives years from now is admittedly impossible, because such change seems to be taking place at an exponential rate, and we have little past experience as to how modern technology changes society, life style, or culture in a reliable way. Projecting how we might live ten years in the future from an economic perspective is not that challenging – particularly since this rate of change is relatively slow and such events have been experienced in numerous countries over hundreds of years. As a result, it is not impossible or even particularly difficult to foresee many of the important changes that we could expect to see from the onset of the next recession/depression.
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Tuesday, December 17, 2019
Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Michael_Pento
The global fixed income market has reached such a manic state that junk bond yields now trade at a much lower rate than where investment-grade debt once stood. Investment-grade corporate debt yields were close to 6% prior to the Great Recession. However, Twitter just issued $700 million of eight-year bonds at a yield of just 3.875%. That is an insanely low rate even for investment-grade corporate debt. But, the credit rating on these bonds is BB+, which by the way, happens to be in the junk category.One has to wonder how fragile the fixed income world has become when investors are tripping over each other to lock up money for eight years in a junk-rated company that is offering a yield only 1.5 percentage points above the current rate of inflation. And, in a company involved in the technology space, which is a sector that evolves extremely rapidly with a high extinction rate. Oh, and by the way, Twitter missed on both revenue and earnings in its last quarterly report. Nevertheless, this issue was so oversubscribed that the dollar amount for the offering was boosted by $100 million just days before coming to market.
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Friday, November 29, 2019
We Are on the Brink of the Second Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: John_Mauldin
You really need to watch this video of a recent conversation between Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones. Their part is about the first 40 minutes.
In this video, Ray highlights some problematic similarities between our times and the 1930s. Both feature:
- a large wealth gap
- the absence of effective monetary policy
- a change in the world order, in this case the rise of China and the potential for trade wars/technology wars/capital wars.
He threw in a few quick comments as their time was running out, alluding to the potential for the end of the world reserve system and the collapse of fiat monetary regimes.
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Tuesday, June 25, 2019
The Next Great Depression in the Making / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Harry_Dent
They lie, cheat, and steal? No way!With all eyes focused on Facebook’s cryptocurrency reveal tomorrow, what the Fed will do this Wednesday, and Slack’s IPO on Thursday, all of which we’ll address in the coming days, let’s turn our attention to another major issue that is silently unfolding: the great baby bust. More than any of the current hot events, it will have a significant impact on the future of our economy and the success of your investments…
Decades before births peaked in 2007, I was projecting it would happen. But how could I know that? Easy. Because births fall when the economy slows, especially in the Economic Winter Season, which we’re in the latter part now.
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Thursday, June 06, 2019
Trump Is Making the Same Trade Mistake That Started the Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: John_Mauldin
We all wonder if Trump’s trade actions are as random as they appear or if there is a broader strategy.
Some of my contacts argue that the relatively strong US economy allows the administration to take a harder line than would normally be advisable.
The thinking is that we can ride out a trade war better than China can.
Thursday, April 25, 2019
If This Pattern Holds True, the US Economy Could Face the Worst Stagnation in History / Economics / Great Depression II
By: John_Mauldin
I recently made a case that the Fed’s monetary policy is turning Japanese. Let’s examine how that worked for them.
From one perspective, it has done quite well. From another, they have paid a cost.
Is it worth it? I think many Japanese, likely a big majority, would say yes.
An Economic Miracle?
The Bank of Japan has more than 140% of Japanese GDP on its balance sheet.
Its laws let it buy equities not just in Japan but all over the world and it did. Yet the currency is roughly the same value as it was when the Bank of Japan got busy with that project.
Tuesday, February 28, 2017
US Border Adjustment Tax Could Lead to Another Great Depression / Politics / Great Depression II
By: John_Mauldin
The border adjustment tax is disruptive by its very nature. (I’m writing a series of articles about the good, the bad, and the ugly of this tax reform in Thoughts from the Frontline. Read Part 1 here).
In their defense, Paul Ryan and House Ways & Means Committee Chair Kevin Brady know everything I just said and probably agree with much of it. They believe the BAT’s negative effects will disappear quickly due to currency flows.
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Friday, February 03, 2017
Economic Depression, Stagflation, Stag-Depress-Flation / Economics / Great Depression II
By: DeviantInvestor
The United States suffered through a deflationary depression in the 1930s. Stock prices crashed, currency in circulation declined, commodity and real estate prices fell hard and human misery prevailed.
President Roosevelt revalued gold from $20.67 to $35.00 per ounce in 1933 – a substantial devaluation of the dollar. Make-work and government spending programs were implemented. War followed the depression.
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Monday, December 05, 2016
If Trump Doesn’t Do This, We Will Have the Great Depression 2.0 / Economics / Great Depression II
By: John_Mauldin
No matter who won the presidency, the economic way forward was not going to be easy. The Republican team understands they must “stand and deliver.” But as we will see, that is not going to be easy.
I’m going to depart from the normal format, where I talk about the economic realities we face and how we should invest, and instead offer my view of what I think the Trump administration and the GOP-led Congress should do.
But first, let’s look briefly at where we are now—at the constraining facts that any economic proposal must take into consideration.
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Monday, September 12, 2016
Why the Greater Recession Will be Dollar Bearish / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Michael_Pento
The Great Recession of 2008 provided markets with an interesting irony: As the US economy was collapsing under the weight of crumbling home prices, investors curiously flocked to the US dollar under the guise of “The Safety Trade.”
But the truth is that investors weren’t running into the dollar for safety, what they were actually doing was unwinding a carry trade. In a carry trade an investor borrows a depreciating currency that offers a relatively low interest rate and uses those funds to purchase an appreciating currency that offers the potential for higher returns on its sovereign debt and stock market. The trade’s objective is to capture the difference between rates, while also benefitting from the currency that is rising in value against the borrowed (shorted) funds.
Sunday, September 04, 2016
The Anti-Cinderella Man (Part One) - The Greater Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: James_Quinn
There are several movies I will watch every time they are aired on one of my generally useless 600 cable channels. They all have the same thing in common – a compelling character portrayal which keeps you riveted and mesmerized by how the protagonist deals with adversity and circumstances beyond their control. The movies I can’t resist include: The Godfather I & II, The Green Mile, Shawshank Redemption, Apocalypse Now, and Patton. Another captivating movie, which didn’t do well at the box office, is Cinderella Man. The portrayal of Depression era heavyweight boxing champion James J. Braddock by Russell Crowe is inspirational, with a rousing and improbable victory by the champion of the common man. While watching this great movie a few weeks ago I found myself equating the themes to the current presidential campaign.
Wednesday, March 09, 2016
The Fed is About to Trigger Another Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Graham_Summers
It’s literally 1937 all over again.
Many analysts have called for the Fed not to repeat its mistake of 1937.
That mistake?
Raising rates when the economy was already weak. Doing this prolonged the Great Depression.
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Monday, November 16, 2015
How the Great Depression 2.0 Will Soon Unfold / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Michael_Pento
Those who place their faith in a sustainable economic recovery emanating through government fiat will soon be shocked. Colossal central bank counterfeiting and gargantuan government deficit spending has caused the major averages to climb back towards unchanged on the year. Zero interest rate and negative interest rate policies, along with unprecedented interest rate manipulations, have levitated global stock markets. But still, sustainable and robust GDP growth has been remarkably absent for the past 8 years.
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
China, The Great Depressions 1 & 2, and Gold / Commodities / Great Depression II
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
When uncontrolled credit growth results in speculative bubbles, capitalism’s cycles of expansion and contraction end in catastrophic deflationary depressions where large collapsing bubbles result in crippling levels of defaulting debt.
In June-July 2015, the Shanghai stock market retraced the beginning of the end of the historic 1920s US stock bubble whose collapse in 1929 ended in the Great Depression of the 1930s; and while it may appear history is repeating itself, it is not. This time, capital markets will not recover.
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Friday, October 09, 2015
The Greater Economic Depression Deep State / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Casey_Research
Master speculator and economic expert Doug Casey believes a global financial crisis is just around the corner, which will result in what he has termed the “Greater Depression”...
This essay originally appeared in The Casey Report. In it, Doug details a hidden but powerful force known as the “deep state” that’s ruining the country.
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Sunday, October 06, 2013
U.S. Economy Heading For Another Economic Slump / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Whitney
“Slumping asset prices show a recession is probably on its way. … Stocks tend to fall more frequently and further than property values, so they are better recession-predictors.” - IMF research paper by economists John C. Bluedorn, Joerg Decressin and Marco E. Terrones.
Sunday, May 05, 2013
The Next Great Economic Depression Has Already Started In Europe / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Submissions
Michael Snyder writes: The next Great Depression is already happening - it just hasn't reached the United States yet. Things in Europe just continue to get worse and worse, and yet most people in the United States still don't get it. All the time I have people ask me when the "economic collapse" is going to happen. Well, for ages I have been warning that the next major wave of the ongoing economic collapse would begin in Europe, and that is exactly what is happening. In fact, both Greece and Spain already have levels of unemployment that are greater than anything the U.S. experienced during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
The Economic Depression Is Deepening / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bill_Bonner
Gold seemed to be stabilizing at the end of last week. Commodities remained weak. Steel has fallen 31% this year. Brent crude is off 17% since early February. And copper is down 15%.
Copper is the metal you need to make almost anything – houses, cars, electronics. When it goes down, it generally means the world economy is getting soft.
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