Category: Economic Recovery
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, December 17, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Starts Show Small Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Construction of new homes increased 3.9% to an annual rate of 555,000 in November, following an 11.1% drop in the previous month. Starts of single-family units advanced 6.9% in November to an annual rate of 465,000. The November level of single-family starts is marginally above the three-month moving average of single-family starts (see Chart 1), which suggests that stronger gains are necessary before we declare that home construction activity is out of the woods. Multi-family starts fell 9.1% in November, marking the third consecutive monthly decline.
Saturday, December 11, 2010
U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows in October, Provides Lift to Q4 GDP Growth / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit narrowed to $38.7 billion in October from a gap of $44.6 billion in the prior month. The 3.2% increase in exports of goods and services and a 0.5% decline in imports of goods and services brought about a narrowing of the trade gap in October. Overall, this reading is a big plus for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
U.S. Consumer Confidence Advances in November, Another Bullish Report for the Month / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 54.1 in November from 49.9 in October. Both the Present Situation Index (24.0 vs. 23.5) and Expectations Index (74.2 vs. 67.5) advanced in November. There is a bullish tone in economic reports of November - payroll employment, auto sales, factory production, retail sales, regional purchasing managers' surveys and consumer confidence measures among other reports that have been disappointing - home sales, jobless rate, durable goods orders.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Slow Economic Recovery and Recessions on the Margin / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Mauldin
Recessions Are on the Margin
A Rose is Still a Rose
If It Feels Like a Recession
The Rough Road Back
And the data out over the last few weeks tells us it is getting better. Does this take us out of the double-dip woods, even as the Fed is lowering its forecast? And what is a recession? Yes, we all know it's when the economy doesn't grow, but we are in a rather unique economic environment, this time. Maybe things are getting better, but is it enough to get us back on the road to full employment?
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Consumer Spending on Track for Sustained Growth in Q4 / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real consumer spending rose 0.3% in October, following a 0.2% gain in the prior month. A large part of the increase was from purchases of cars and other recreational vehicles. Outlays on services held steady during October after a 0.1% increase in September. The October consumer spending data combined with conservative projections in the last two months of year points to moderate growth during the fourth quarter.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Index of Leading Economic Indicators Posts Second Impressive Monthly Gain / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) rose 0.5% in October, following an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in September. The June-August readings of the LEI cast a shadow on the nature of the recovery. Moreover, the three-month annualized increase of the LEI, at 4.8%, is the largest increase since June 2010 (see chart 2). The reversal of the 3-month annualized change of the LEI supports predictions of faster economic growth in 2011.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Is the Philly Fed Survey the Precursor of More Bullish Economic Numbers? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's business survey results for November show a strong rebound. The broadest measure of factory conditions increased to 22.5 in November from 1.0 in the October (see chart 1). The index tracking new orders rose to 10.4 in November from -5.0 in the prior month. Indexes measuring shipments (16.8 vs. 1.4 in October), number of employees (13.3 vs. 2.4 in October) and the employee workweek (22.3 vs. 15.9 in October) also advanced in November.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Turkey Deepens Strategic Relationship with China / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Global_Intel_Report
INCIDENT: The visit by Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to Beijing a week ago, follows by a scant three weeks the visit by China's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to Ankara on 78 October as part of the latter's European diplomatic tour also including Belgium, Germany, Greece, and Italy in the margin of his participation in an EU-China summit.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
U.S. Factory Production Moves Ahead in October, Energy Costs Pushing Up Inflation / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Industrial production held steady in October after a 0.2% drop in the prior month. Activity at the nation's mines (-0.1%) and utilities (-3.4%) declined in October and offset the gains in manufacturing output. Factory production rose 0.5% in October after holding nearly steady for two consecutive months. Nearly all major categories of manufacturing posted gains in October - autos (+5.0%), wood products (+2.5%), machinery (+1.4%), computers (+0.7%) and furniture (+0.8%). The small reversal of a decelerating trend (year-to-year change, see chart 1) is the important aspect to note from the October data.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
U.S. Jobless Claims Decline and Trade Gap Narrows, Exports Continue Boost Economy / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 24,000 to 435,000 during the week ended November 6. Initial jobless claims have dropped in three out of the last four weeks. The 4-week moving average at 446,500 is the lowest since September 13, 2008 (see chart 1). Each of these developments is noteworthy and encouraging. In addition, the date is haunting because this is the last weekly reading before the Lehman Brothers debacle in September 2008.
Saturday, November 06, 2010
U.S. October Employment Report Shows Economy is Slowly But Surely Retreating From the Cliff / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.6% in October, virtually steady for five straight months. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in December 2007 when the recession commenced. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009 and the cycle low (for the expansion that ended in December 2007) is 4.4% in March 2007.
Payroll Employment: 151,000 in October vs. -41,000 in September. Private sector jobs increased 159,000 after a 107,000 increase in September. Net gain of 93,000 jobs after revisions of private sector payroll estimates for August and September.
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
ISM Manufacturing Survey Shows Continuing Sluggish U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The ISM composite index of the manufacturing sector rose to 56.9 in October, the highest since May 2010. The headline and details indicate that the factory sector is back on its feet after a sluggish performance in the third quarter. The index tracking new orders, a forward looking indicator, increased to 58.9 in October vs. 51.1 in the prior month.
Saturday, October 30, 2010
U.S. Economy Continues to Grow, But Momentum Not Enough to Lower Jobless Rate / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real gross domestic product (GDP) of the U.S. economy grew at annual rate of 2.0% in the third quarter, after a 1.7% increase in the second quarter. However, final sales advanced only 0.6% in the third quarter, following a mild 0.9% increase in the second quarter. As shown in chart 1, final sales show a decelerating trend after an increase of 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2009.
Friday, October 01, 2010
U.S. Real GDP Revised Higher, Stronger Consumer Spending, Jobless Claims Trending Down / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.7% in the second quarter vs. the preliminary estimate of 1.6%. The 2.2% growth in consumer spending represents an upward revision from the earlier estimate of a 2.0% gain. The strength came from an upward revision of consumer outlays on services. A larger inventory accumulation was also reported for the second quarter compared with the prior estimate ($68.8 billion vs. $63.2 billion in preliminary report). A decline in non-residential structures and smaller growth of government spending provided most of the offset. Going forward, the U.S. economy is projected to grow at a tepid pace in the second half of 2010 of roughly 1-3/4%.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Why the Statistical Economic Recovery Feels Bad / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds might be interested in charts of GDP minus the effect of increased government spending. The charts are from reader Tim Wallace who writes ...
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
A Candid Appraisal of the U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Browne
Over the last two weeks, seemingly good economic news offered some shreds of optimism to a stock market that was desperate for a pick-me-up.
The week before last, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the US recession had ended back in June 2009. At the beginning of last week, news came in that month-on-month retail sales had risen by 0.4 percent. Combined with successful government debt auctions in the eurozone, increasing expectations that Republicans will take back the House (thereby blunting the leftward drift of Washington), and hopes that a new round of quantitative easing will pump up growth, mainstream analysts are developing a feeling of near-euphoria.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Has the U.S. Economy Improved in the Third Quarter? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Sy_Harding
Economic growth in the second quarter slowed to an anemic 1.6% from 5.0% in the December quarter, and 3.7% in the first quarter.Hopes have been that things began picking up again in the third quarter and that last year’s recovery from the recession is back on track.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Is a Reduction in Unemployment the Key to US Economic Recovery? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Frank_Shostak
Most experts are almost unanimous that the key to economic recovery is a reduction in the unemployment rate, which stood at 9.6% in August. The number of unemployed stood in August at almost 15 million. Also, the underemployment rate climbed to 16.7% in August from 16.5% in the month before.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
The End of the Great Recession is Official / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research indicated today that the recession which commenced in December 2007 ended in June 2009. The 18-month recession is the longest on record in the post-war period. The 1973-75 and 1981-82 recessions lasted 16 months. The announcement is an official ritual; for all practical purposes, it has been widely known the recession ended in the middle of 2009. The important difference to note is that the pace of economic growth in the current recovery is significantly slower compared with the recoveries following the 1973-75 and 1981-82 recessions.
Friday, September 17, 2010
The Long Road to Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: David_Galland
David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report writes: Last week the government released the latest unemployment data. Bloomberg, always ready to roll up the sleeves to help its friends in government (get reelected), was running a headline that “Companies in U.S. Added 67,000 Jobs in August.”
While I haven’t had time to go through the minutiae of the report, I find myself scratching my head at Mr. Market’s rather positive reaction to the report, given the bullet points:
Read full article... Read full article...