Category: Demographics
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, September 22, 2024
US State Demographics / Housing-Market / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The big problem with US house price trends is that the US is just so big! Whilst the US as a whole will see a rising population however that rise is not uniform across all states, so whilst this analysis is heading towards a conclusion for rising average house prices that does not mean that house prices will rise in your town, city or state. For instance it appears folk are fleeing the likes of New York and California for Texas and Florida of all places! Which I guess is more of a dream of what Florida once was rather than what it has become i.e. over populated. I strongly suspect that Florida will witness a trend reversal over the coming years as folk flee over crowded Florida for the likes of the Carolinas.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2024
US Population Growth Rate / Economics / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It should not come as any surprise that the US population continues to grow, rebounding strongly from the pandemic pause in immigration which acts as a cushion against the falling fertility rate that currently stands at 1.66 which is below the replacement rate of 2.1 so obviously the gap is being filled by immigrants as is the case with most western nations with a growing population such as Britain which has a fertility rate of 1.55 vs the EU at 1.46 and those that bark the loudest about immigrants Poland and Hungary are dying the fastest not only because they have a low fertility rate but also that many millions of their young have migrated abroad with some 2 million Poles having settled in the UK alone, in total Poland has lost 1/5th of it's population to emigration. Poland as much of Eastern Europe is dying unlike Western Europe which is at the heart of the basket case that is called the European Union.
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Tuesday, May 31, 2022
UK Population Growth Trend Forecast to 2030 Current State / Housing-Market / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My long standing forecast is for the UK population to grow from 62.2 million as of Mid 2010 to at least 70.5 million by 2030 as excerpted below:
2nd August 2010 - UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030
The assumptions being factored into the UK population growth forecast are for a natural UK population growth rate of births exceeding deaths of 0.33% per year (current 200k), coupled with net average current immigration trend of 240k per year, supplemented with climate change refugees averaging 50k per year from 2015 onwards extrapolates into the following trend forecast over the next 10 years that targets a rise from 62.2 million as of mid 2010 to 67 million by mid 2020, and should the same trend be maintained beyond 2020 then the UK population could rise to above 72 million by mid 2030. However in all probability the country will not experience the post 2020 trend due to several converging factors including political pressures, capacity constraints and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues. Which implies a tapering off of net immigration in favour of natural growth which implies a lower total of nearer 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated by the below graph.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
Capitalizing on Changing Demographics / Stock-Markets / Demographics
By: Robert_Ross
Part of it has to do with where we live. South Central Texas is a thriving, job-creating area, and it draws millions of young workers, so children seem to be everywhere. If you’re looking for a place with adult-friendly restaurants and theaters, this isn’t it.But part of it is my age – or more specifically, my stage of life, although the two go hand-in-hand.
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Sunday, April 28, 2019
UK Demographics Crisis Silver Lining of Sorts / Housing-Market / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis directly continues on from (Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off!) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
The Economics of Happiness / Politics / Demographics
By: Harry_Dent
It always strikes me as odd that the happiest countries tend to be in cold-as-hell places like Scandinavia and Canada. It’s kind of similar stateside, too.This weekend I saw a recent study by WalletHub that shows that the happiest states in the U.S. tend to be in the upper Midwest region – you know, where the Arctic vortex comes on through! In order of happiness, we have Minnesota, North Dakota, Iowa, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin.
Those in the less-frigid-but-still-cold Northeast are also generally happier. We’re also talking just south of there: Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia. And of course, the west coast is largely happy, except Oregon. The Rockies also, except Wyoming. And then there is the Southwest… Well, except for New Mexico.
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Thursday, March 14, 2019
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! / Economics / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off!
This is the next analysis in a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices, this analysis takes a look at the impact of Demographics on the probable house prices trend over the next few years. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.
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Thursday, January 03, 2019
Will Technology Save Baby Boomers? / Politics / Demographics
By: Patrick_Watson
Baby Boomers get blamed for all kinds of problems.Much of the blame is unfair. But there is no doubt the first postwar generation brought a lot of changes—culturally, economically, and otherwise.
Last month, I helped John Mauldin write his Pyramids of Crisis letter. As a result of decisions made decades ago, there’s a rapidly growing proportion of older people in the US.
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Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Society Trends To Keep in Mind in the USA / Politics / Demographics
By: Dylan_Moran
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Friday, March 09, 2018
Best 7 Worst U.S. Population Change / Politics / Demographics
By: Harry_Dent
The Dems shut down government because of the ongoing immigration impasse.Only for a couple of days, sure.
But it’s THAT big of an issue across the political spectrum right now.
Trump wants a wall.
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Friday, March 09, 2018
The Middle Class Might Nearly Disappear in the Next Decade / Politics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
Patrick Watson: At the Strategic Investment Conference 2018, Karen Harris from Bain & Company gave a thought-provoking keynote titled, “Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation, and Inequality.”
She sees a big economic shift that began in the 1980s. Driven by demographics and automation, the world is gradually moving from a supply-constrained to a demand-constrained economy.
Harris said the combination of a demographically shrinking workforce and increasingly cost-effective automation will aggravate inequality, curb demand, and put a cap on economic growth.
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Thursday, February 22, 2018
The Fastest Growing State Populations / Housing-Market / Demographics
By: Harry_Dent
One of the buzzwords since Trump became president is “growth.” He’s made ridiculous promises about economic growth that he can’t possibly make good on.But let’s take a look at another type of growth that affects us all: population growth, specifically in the continental U.S.
It should be no surprise that very high-cost states like New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, California, and Hawaii are NOT growing very fast.
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Thursday, November 16, 2017
A Generational Reset That Will Redistribute Wealth to the Bottom 60% Is Near / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
Billionaire founder of top hedge fund Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio got where he is by having keen insight into both human nature and economic trends.
Occasionally, he shares some of his wisdom publicly.
In one of his recent articles, Dalio argues that it is a serious mistake to think you can analyze or understand “the” economy because we now have two of them.
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Monday, October 16, 2017
Boomers Are Not Saving Enough for Retirement, Neither Is the Government / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Wall Street endlessly gushes about retirement. Its TV commercials show how wonderful life will be in our golden years—when we are old, yet still healthy and wealthy enough to go hang-gliding every day.
Meanwhile, out here in the real world, most working-age Americans don’t want to talk or even think about retirement. Often this is because they know they aren't saving enough and probably will have to work until they drop dead.
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Saturday, September 16, 2017
Predicting the Future of the U.S. and the World / Economics / Demographics
By: Harry_Dent
Predictability.People.
Those are the two keystones of my research and forecasting successes: cycles and demographics.
It can all be traced back to the day I was studying several charts that I’d laid out on my desk. I’d been looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average adjusted for inflation when I glanced up and spotted the Baby Boomer’s birth wave.
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Saturday, July 29, 2017
Baby Boomers Are Aging Quickly and Here’s How You Can Benefit / Companies / Demographics
By: Charles_Sizemore
If you’ve followed my writing for any length of time, you know how much respect I have for Harry and his demographic work.Believe it or not, Harry, and his approach to forecasting, gave me the confidence to help launch Peak Income – an income newsletter – at a time when most investors were terrified of yield-focused investments.
The consensus two years ago was that inflation and higher bond yields were just around the corner, which would’ve meant a rough ride for the kind of investments I recommend.
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Wednesday, June 21, 2017
These 2 Charts Show Why Aging is Greatest Threat to US Budget and Deficits / Economics / Demographics
By: GoldCore
BY PATRICK COX : In its 2017 “Long-Term Budget Outlook,” The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) paints a dire picture of US deficits and debt. It shows that the largest single contributing factor to our rising debt and deficits is aging.
Thursday, June 08, 2017
This Is The Most Profound Shift The US Economy Has Ever Seen / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
By Stephen McBride : This year, the first Baby Boomers turned 70, and that spells trouble for the economy and financial markets.
Speaking at Mauldin Economics’ Strategic Investment Conference, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff, David Rosenberg, dissected the wide-ranging implications of the wave of Baby Boomers now retiring.
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Friday, April 21, 2017
Median US Household’s Wealth Has Declined by 40% Since 2007 / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
Nominal US household wealth is at an all-time high. But my friend Marc Faber (publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report) says that's mostly an illusion.
Below, Marc looks at the relationship between asset prices and US household wealth, and the effect of that relationship on the economy.
It seems the wealth of the top 0.1% has vastly improved in recent decades (and the top 10% haven’t done at all badly). But “the median household’s or asset owner’s wealth has declined by close to 40% in real terms (adjusted by the CPI) from its peak in 2007.”
Median household increases in wealth are also illusory because the main component of household wealth is pension fund assets (approximately US$22 trillion).
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Friday, April 07, 2017
What Makes Millennials Disturbingly Different? / Politics / Demographics
By: Gordon_T_Long
In Stealth Fashion Millennials Are Rapidly Transforming Society
Something had mysteriously changed during the 2016 US Presidential primaries when an unlikely democratic candidate burst on the national scene with an unquestionable allure for the Millennial generation. How was it that a 'left wing' Bernie Sanders, who was of an age that he would be considered as a very old grandfather by this young generation, could draw such rousing support? What was it about this grey haired unknown senator from Vermont who so clearly represented the expectations, aspirations and frustrations of this new 'coming of age' generation?
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