Category: Italy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, October 04, 2018
Eurozone Debt Crisis - Italy and the Euro Unplugged / Interest-Rates / Italy
By: Axel_Merk
Why is it that Italy causes such a stir in financial markets when proposing a budget? Is it politics or is the stability of the financial system at stake? In our assessment, the best way to avert a crisis is to allow market forces to play out. Let me explain.
We all “know” Italy is in trouble. Well, before we jump to conclusions, let’s look at a few charts. Above is the Italian unemployment rate; it’s come off a high level, but still elevated. When policy makers call for structural reform, it is a codeword for increasing flexibility in the labor market, i.e. making firing easier. If firing workers is difficult, companies won’t hire workers. It’s also in this context that providing a so-called basic income is criticized by some as providing a disincentive to join the labor force (aside from cementing higher deficits for years to come). Basic income means you get paid, whether you work or not. In practice, the devil is in the details, as European workers have long enjoyed unemployment benefits; streamlining such benefits might actually save the government money. That said, Germany’s low unemployment, to a significant extent, may be due to the fact that welfare benefits were curtailed in 2002 (with a social democrat as chancellor), providing an incentive for workers to join the workforce.
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Tuesday, June 05, 2018
What the Bond Markets Are Finally Saying About Italy / Interest-Rates / Italy
By: Harry_Dent
Over the years I’ve spent much time talking about Italy as the next ticking time bomb for Europe and the global banking system.It’s government debt is the third highest in the world at 132% of GDP, coming only after Japan and Greece.
Its private debt is 23% of the Eurozone versus Greece’s 3%.
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Saturday, June 02, 2018
Making Italy Great Again / Politics / Italy
By: Peter_Schiff
This week, market watchers around the world are justifiably fixated with the high-stakes, high-drama political developments unfolding in Italy. While a political crisis in the world’s 9th largest economy (International Monetary Fund figures, 4/17/18) would normally not be enough to cause an international meltdown, given how thin the global economic ice has become as a result of ever-increasing debt loads, even small disruptions can create systemic problems. But from my perspective, what makes the Italian drama so interesting is that it parallels so precisely developments in the United States. It’s amazing that more Americans do not realize, that when looking at Italy, they are looking at a fun house mirror reflection of the United States.
Friday, June 01, 2018
This is Italy Not Sparta / Politics / Italy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
“European Stocks Surge Celebrating New Spanish, Italian Governments”, says a Zero Hedge headline. “Markets Breathe Easier As Italy Government Sworn In”, proclaims Reuters. And I’m thinking: these markets are crazy, and none of this will last more than a few days. Or hours. The new Italian government is not the end of a problem, it’s the beginning of many of them.
And Italy is far from the only problem. The new Spanish government will be headed by Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez, who manoeuvred well to oust sitting PM Rajoy, but he also recently saw the worst election result in his party’s history. Not exactly solid ground. Moreover, he needed the support of Catalan factions, and will have to reverse much of Rajoy’s actions on the Catalunya issue, including probably the release from prison of those responsible for the independence referendum.
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Wednesday, December 07, 2016
The Rise of Anti-Establishment Italy / Politics / Italy
By: Dan_Steinbock
After the UK Brexit and the Trump triumph in the US, the rise of anti-establishment Italy is hardly a surprise. It is the effect of half a decade of failed austerity doctrines in Europe and decades of failed political consolidation in Italy – ever since the notorious Tangentopoli scandals.
While Italy’s constitutional referendum heralds a political earthquake that will eventually affect both France and Germany, the immediate result is more uncertainty in economy, political polarization and market volatility.
Tuesday, December 06, 2016
Mass Migration and Bank Weakness Threaten The Italian Economy / Politics / Italy
By: Jeff_Berwick
In the wake of the Italian referendum results and Matteo Renzi’s subsequent resignation, the level of uncertainty in Italy continues to grow both inside the country and among foreign investors.
As many expected, Banco Monte dei Paschi’s shares fell sharply on the news of Renzi’s defeat. And markets reacted in risk off fashion much like they did post-Brexit, with European stocks, US futures and the Euro all rising in response to the news. And it’s likely to stay that way until some sense of calm returns to the market.
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Saturday, December 03, 2016
First UK BrExit then Trump, Next BrExit Tsunami Wave to Hit Italy HARD Sunday! / ElectionOracle / Italy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The people of Britain voting for freedom from an emerging european super state on 23rd of June 2016 has ignited a fire in the people across the western world who had been increasingly been turned off by pass the parcel politics of the last 40 years, one of lying politicians that had long since detached themselves from the reality of the lives of ordinary people, where over time they came to believe their own lies, and so are primed to be repeatedly shocked by the impossible. BrExit was supposed to be impossible, Trump becoming President was supposed to be impossible and we don't need to look far to see that both were shock events that the establishment, politicians, pollsters, mainstream media, markets, and bookies never saw coming.
Wednesday, November 30, 2016
Referendum Puts Italy's Government to the Test / Politics / Italy
By: STRATFOR
Forecast
- If Italian voters reject a raft of proposed constitutional reforms on Dec. 4, the government will likely resign.
- Should that happen, Parliament could avoid triggering early elections by appointing a caretaker government instead.
- The prospect of a victory by political parties that are critical of the eurozone will continue to create uncertainty in Italy and the rest of the currency area.
Thursday, September 01, 2016
The Italian EU Referendum Could Result in the Death of the Euro / ElectionOracle / Italy
By: John_Mauldin
An important election is coming up, and I’m not talking about the US presidential election. The upcoming referendum in Italy this fall will have a major macroeconomic impact on the world. But hardly anyone outside of Italy is paying much attention to it—yet.
I’ve been saying for some time in interviews around the country that the referendum in Italy could have even more of an impact than the Brexit vote did in the UK. And like the Brexit vote, it is rife with emotion and political turmoil, making the outcome too close to call.
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Thursday, May 12, 2016
SOS Italy. ExItaly! - Video / Politics / Italy
By: Mario_Innecco
Transcript Excerpt: Its Thursday May 12 2016 yeah I want to talk about it early this morning
and how its leaves sinking there's an interesting article in The Telegraph da
Costa UK which are linked to it by Ambrose evans-pritchard he's an
economics writer for The Telegraph and the headline in Italy must choose
between the euro and its own economic survival so a little bit of background
when Italy you know because many people think that things have been as they have
for every you know that italy is a country or state that Germany is a
country even the United States you know that it's been as it is for over 200
years but if you look deeply into the history has you know the United States
Sunday, March 15, 2015
How Italy’s Government Enables the Mafia / Politics / Italy
By: MISES
Emilio Parodi writes: Beyond nice wines, warm beaches, and sultry women, Italy is well-known for something less savory — the mafia. It is interesting to understand how such a powerful “machine” managed to enter society in such a strong and meaningful way, but more importantly to grasp its role alongside the central government of Italy. On the one hand, it is easy to state that the mafia and the corrupt economic system it functions within are wrong and unproductive for the country. On the other hand its presence may be of help to a country’s economy, something that is especially true in the case of Italy.
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Four Possible Outcomes to Italy's 5-Star Mess / Economics / Italy
By: Adrian_Ash
Alessandra Pilloni writes: Rome will have a new pope before Italy gets a new government. Good job there's no rush...
ROME has now been without a government since mid-December. Italy's politicians will only start to talk later this week about doing something about last month's failed elections. Barely a month after Benedict XVI resigned, the Catholic world will have a new pope before Italy gets a prime minister. It's lucky there is no rush.
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Monday, March 11, 2013
Vatican's Next GodFather - What's More Important To You, Italy or the Dow? / Politics / Italy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
During the Italian election weekend two weeks ago, I watched all three Godfather films on a local station. Very convenient, since they can teach you quite a bit about Italy, even if you've seen them a dozen times already in the past. The abdication of the pope sort of rounded off the history lesson, and I was thinking: OK, now I'm good to go.
After the results came in and Beppe Grillo and the Five Star movement (M5S) became the single biggest "party", I was going to simply repost my February 10 article Beppe Grillo Wants To Give Italy Democracy, in which I wrote about my meeting with Beppe and the ideas we talked about which I took away from that. He had won big, but it was clear that most people still had no idea who he is.
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Monday, July 02, 2012
Italy in Crisis: The Decline of the Roman Democracy and Rise of the ‘Super Mario’ Technocracy / Politics / Italy
By: Andrew_G_Marshall
The European debt crisis continues into its third year, with four government bailouts – of Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain – and having imposed harsh austerity measures upon the people of Europe, forcing them to pay – through reduced standards of living and increased poverty – for the excesses of their political and financial rulers. Italy, as Europe’s third largest economy, with one of the largest debt-to-GDP ratios, plays a central role in the unfolding debt crisis across Europe. Part 1 of this excerpt from a chapter on the economic crisis in my upcoming book covers the “suspension” of democracy in Italy and the imposition of a ‘Technocracy’ – an unelected government led by academics and bankers – with a mandate to punish the people, facilitate the financial elite, and serve the interests of the supranational, unelected, technocratic European Union. Power centralized, power globalizes, power plunders and profits on the punishment and impoverishment of people everywhere. This is the story of Italy’s debt crisis.