Category: Recession 2017
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, June 01, 2017
The Next Recession May Be A Complete Reset Of All Asset Valuations / Economics / Recession 2017
By: John_Mauldin
Sometime this year, world public and private plus unfunded pensions will surpass $300 trillion. That is not even counting the $100 trillion in US government unfunded liabilities. Oops.
These obligations cannot be paid. A time is coming when the market and voters will realize this.
Will voters decide to tax “the rich” more? Will they increase their VAT rates and further slow growth? Will they reduce benefits? No matter what they decide, hard choices will bring political turmoil.
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Is US Economy at the Cusp of the Next Recession? or Maybe Worse? / Economics / Recession 2017
By: Plunger
Part II takes a look at the macro economic backdrop for the trade of the year. Spoiler alert- its not a pretty picture, but don’t think doom and gloom, instead embrace crisis and opportunity! With our understanding of the history of oil we now focus on the macro backdrop for our Big Trade.
“When the tide goes out you find out who has been swimming naked”– Warren Buffet
“This time around everything gets revealed in the next recession”-Plunger
In the next recession those leaning the wrong way… the levered players, will be forced to heave out their non-productive assets at fire sale prices. Commodity producers with entrenched costs will have to increase production as lower prices beget even lower prices since insufficient cash flows can only be recovered through higher volume production.
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Thursday, February 09, 2017
According to “Unmassaged Data” the US Economy is Rolling Over / Economics / Recession 2017
By: Graham_Summers
Yet another “unmassaged” data point has shown that the US economy is rolling over.
If you’ve been reading me for a while you know that one of my biggest pet peeves is the fact that headline US economic data (GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, etc.) is massaged to the point of being fiction.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2017
Bad News For Stock Bulls.. the US is Sliding Into Recession / Economics / Recession 2017
By: Graham_Summers
While the financial media was applauding last week’s jobs number, those of us who actually look into the details can tell you that the report was complete fiction.
The headline number of 227,000 was largely crafted through seasonal adjustments, NOT actual job creation. At a minimum 170,000 of those jobs were created in an excel spreadsheet by bean counters, NOT by businesses hiring.
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Saturday, January 14, 2017
It’s Confirmed, the US is Officially in Recession / Economics / Recession 2017
By: Graham_Summers
The US is officially in a recession.
This won’t show up in the “official” data… because the official data is fiction. GDP numbers might as well be in a Harry Potter novel, they’re that inaccurate and ridiculous.
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Friday, December 02, 2016
We Are Putting Off the Inevitable / Economics / Recession 2017
By: John_Mauldin
Only two presidents in history did not see a recession, and they were inaugurated after single-term presidents. In every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency, there’s been a recession. This means there is a 100% chance of recession for the new president.
My friend Raoul Pal, in his latest Global Macro Investor, talks about the potential for a recession in 2017:
The following chart shows every recession since 1910 (in yellow) with the new president after a two-term election marked in white and the new presidents after a single-term presidency in red. Wilson and Eisenhower appear as both. Only Coolidge saw more than a year (sixteen months) from his second-term election and the onset of the subsequent recession at the end of WWI…
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Wednesday, November 23, 2016
The Trump Administration Winter is Coming / Economics / Recession 2017
By: John_Mauldin
How on God’s green earth are we supposed to make sense, from an economic and investment portfolio view, of what is happening?
A recession could change everything
It has been quite a while since we have had a recession. When we do have one, it’s going to further limit our choices.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Did The 'Trump Tantrum' Just Trigger The Next US Recession? / Economics / Recession 2017
By: Gordon_T_Long
Trump May Have "Pricked" The Global Bond Bubble
Trump called during the campaign for a $1 trillion infrastructure package, $5 trillion in tax cuts, increases in military spending and the repeal ObamaCare, which could cost more than $350 billion over 10 years. At the same time, the president-elect has promised “not to touch” Social Security or make cuts to Medicare. The moment Trump was elected the markets immediately reacted to this potential massive fiscal injection. Bond values plummeted as yields spiked.
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Friday, October 21, 2016
Central Bankers Can't Stop The Death Blow Of The Post US Election Recession / Economics / Recession 2017
By: Gordon_T_Long
The central bankers are capable of achieving many extraordinary results but not all economic and financial problems can be solved by central bankers. Central Bankers for example have the power to solve liquidity issues, but it is impossible for them to solve solvency issues. Central Bankers through Financial Repression can transfer risk , however they can't remove it from the system. Additionally, Central bankers may be able to delay a recession temporarily, but they can't prevent the business cycle from running its natural course.